Taiwan’s defense ministry is currently conducting large-scale computer-based war games, the first part of exercises aimed to better preparing Taiwan for a possible attack from China. TaiwanPlus spoke to Dmitri Alperovitch, author of “World on the Brink,” to learn why this year's Han Kuang exercises will be not just bigger but also better.
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00:00Taiwan's defense ministry is currently conducting large-scale computer-based war games.
00:05It's the first part of the annual Hanguang military exercises, which simulate an all-out
00:09attack from China.
00:10The second part, consisting of live-fire drills, takes place in July.
00:14To learn more about the drills and how Taiwan is improving its defense strategy, I spoke
00:18to Dmitry Alperovitch.
00:20He's a geopolitical analyst based in Washington, D.C., and the author of World on the Brink.
00:26When we look at how far the annual Hanguang drills have come, what are you most happy
00:30to see in terms of the improvements to Taiwan's defense strategy?
00:34Well, the thing that I'm really pleased to see is the focus on coastal defense, the incorporation
00:40of the harpoon anti-ship missile drills, the incorporation of HIMARS that can target ships
00:45near shore.
00:47That is really, really important.
00:48Look, the Air Force is unlikely to play a big part in a realistic war with China.
00:53The reality is the runways and the maintenance facilities and the fuel facilities will likely
00:57be the first ones to be targeted.
01:00But you can absolutely target the ships that are trying to cross the strait, the landing
01:05aircraft that are trying to land on the beaches and port facilities.
01:09And that is really, really important to see.
01:11Beyond that, air defense.
01:12China has the world's largest missile and rocket arsenal.
01:15So air defense is going to be very stretched.
01:18So looking how it performs in those realistic scenarios is really important.
01:22And a big emphasis this year in Hong Kong is this concept of decentralization.
01:27How important is that in terms of a conflict?
01:29Look, most wars are not won by generals.
01:32They're won by colonels, majors that are making decisions every single minute of every single
01:38day on the battlefield.
01:39This is what happened in Ukraine.
01:41You had a lieutenant colonel that was defending the hostile airport just outside of Kiev that
01:46took initiative and decided to bomb the runways to prevent the Russian airborne from landing
01:51on those runways, from being able to reach Kiev, from being able to decapitate the government.
01:56Had that decision not been made by an individual officer who had no orders to do so, we would
02:01have potentially had a very different scenario, a very different outcome in Ukraine.
02:05So being able to delegate authority to those individual commanders, not have them wait
02:11for orders, look at an opportunity, look at a target and take decisions, whether to destroy
02:17critical infrastructure that the enemy might use or whether to destroy their own forces.
02:21Very, very important.
02:22Now, at the same time, you need to have clear rules of engagement to make sure that they
02:26don't trigger a conflict by firing first.
02:29So you need to strike the right balance there.
02:32And it looks like it's not just active soldiers that are participating in the drills, but
02:35also reservists.
02:37What role would you want them to play in an actual war?
02:40Well, I think for the most part, you want them to play a supporting role for China to
02:45know that if they actually manage to get a lodging established on one of the beachheads,
02:51that they're going to face a force beyond just 100,000 or so that are active duty, but
02:56potentially a million that are in reserves, maybe even more that could be conscripted
03:01as a threat level rises.
03:04So really, really important for them to know that this is an operation that would be the
03:09largest in the history of the planet.