日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2025年3月29日 「トランプ自動車関税」が発動へ！どうする日本企業？
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TVTranscript
00:00Good morning.
00:13We have a question from Nikkei Sata on March 29.
00:17Let me introduce our guest for today.
00:20Professor Masahiko Hosokawa of Meisei University,
00:23who specializes in international economics and economic security.
00:26Nice to meet you.
00:29Mr. Takaki Nakanishi of Nakanishi Automobile Industry Research,
00:35who has been conducting research on automobile industry for many years.
00:38Nice to meet you.
00:40Mr. Tetsuo Kotani of Meikai University,
00:43who specializes in international relations centered on the United States.
00:46Nice to meet you.
00:49Let's take a look at today's topic.
00:53Here it is.
00:55Today's topic is about automobile tariffs,
01:00which President Trump has announced.
01:03We have talked about automobile tariffs several times on our show.
01:08Today, we will focus on automobile tariffs in detail.
01:13If it becomes a high-level tax,
01:16it will have a huge impact on the Japanese economy and employment.
01:20I would like to analyze how this will affect each manufacturer.
01:26As expected, Ferrari is listed at the bottom.
01:31Ferrari has already announced that they will raise the tax to a maximum of 10%.
01:41People who buy Ferraris don't really care about raising the tax.
01:47They are confident in their products.
01:51Ferraris are made in Italy.
01:54What will Japanese companies do with such manufacturers?
01:59Let's take a look at the special feature.
02:02We will consider the impact on Japan.
02:06What we are going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars that are not made in the United States.
02:12If they are made in the United States, it is absolutely not a tariff.
02:16On the 26th, President Trump signed a document
02:20saying that all cars and parts imported to the United States
02:24will be taxed an additional 25%.
02:29In the United States, 2.5% of all cars imported from Japan are taxed,
02:36but an additional 25% is added,
02:39resulting in a tax rate of 27.5%.
02:43Cars and parts are more than one-third of Japan's exports to the U.S.,
02:49which is a huge impact.
02:52The Trump administration's tax on automobiles has raised opposition from countries around the world.
03:00On the 27th, German Chancellor Scholz criticized President Trump
03:05for making a wrong decision and saying that only losers are born.
03:11French President Macron said,
03:15I don't think it's a good idea.
03:19I don't think it's a good idea.
03:22I told President Trump,
03:25but all of this is a waste of time and will create a lot of anxiety in many sectors.
03:32And Canada's Prime Minister Carney said,
03:36Yesterday, in the latest salvo in his trade war,
03:41it is evident that the United States is no longer a reliable partner.
03:47He said,
03:59How will the Japanese government respond?
04:03Prime Minister Ishiba said that all options are subject to consideration.
04:19He said that he would take the best possible response to protect domestic industry without quarreling with the Trump administration.
04:28Will the Japanese government be able to remove the tax on automobiles?
04:38Let's first take a look at whether President Trump's tax on automobiles is a deal or not.
04:46Here is a summary of the tax on automobiles announced on the 26th.
04:5025% of the total tax on automobiles will be applied.
04:54All importers will be taxed.
04:56Japan is not an exception.
04:58It will be in effect from 1 a.m. on April 3rd.
05:03In Japan, it will be 1 p.m. on the 3rd.
05:06A reduction measure will also be taken.
05:08According to the USMCA-USA-Mexico-Canada agreement,
05:12currently untaxed importers will be taxed according to the use of American products.
05:18Additional taxes will also be applied to automobiles by May 3rd.
05:2425% of additional taxes will be applied to engines, transmissions, and driving equipment.
05:31President Trump also plans to increase the amount of tax on automobiles.
05:37President Trump's remarks on tax on automobiles are as follows.
05:42If it is made in the United States, taxes will not be applied at all.
05:45If it is made in the United States, taxes will not be applied at all.
05:51The White House also said that tax on automobiles will be $1 trillion per year.
05:55It is estimated that tax on automobiles will exceed $15 trillion.
06:00Mr. Kotani, you said that the tax on automobiles will be delayed.
06:06There were various observations.
06:08In fact, the announcement was made without waiting for April.
06:11What do you think about this?
06:14The most important timing for the Trump administration is July 4th, 2026.
06:23July 4th will be the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
06:29The Trump administration plans to celebrate this anniversary.
06:33At that time, President Trump will appeal that he is the greatest president in history.
06:40For example, he plans to implement the current Ukrainian and Middle Eastern sanctions.
06:46He plans to implement the current Ukrainian and Middle Eastern sanctions.
06:53In July next year, he will appeal that the United States has become a great country.
06:59In July next year, he will appeal that the United States has become a great country.
07:06This is the purpose of the Trump administration.
07:10This is the purpose of the Trump administration.
07:13This is the purpose of the Trump administration.
07:16This is not a deal.
07:18This is not a deal.
07:20Mr. Trump, you said that you will do it as a high-class tax.
07:23Mr. Trump, you said that you will do it as a high-class tax.
07:26By imposing the tax on automobiles,
07:28By imposing the tax on automobiles,
07:37How about you?
07:39I have a slightly different view.
07:41I have a slightly different view.
07:43The president was asked by a reporter if it was a high-class tax,
07:48and he answered that it is a high-class tax.
07:50The president was asked by a reporter if it was a high-class tax,
07:55That's what all businessmen say.
07:57Why?
07:58Because they want to make the U.S. invest in automobiles.
08:05Hyundai and Toyota are going to invest in automobiles in the future.
08:10It's a political scenario where they want to win the midterm elections.
08:16In order to do that, they have to show their seriousness at the beginning.
08:23If they do that, it's obvious that it will affect the economy.
08:33If that happens, the midterm elections will have to restore the stock market.
08:41I think that's where the deal comes in.
08:47It's not that they don't have a deal.
08:49They're just showing their seriousness to get the deal done.
08:55I think they should think about it.
08:58Mr. Kotari, what do you think?
09:01I think the government has a lot of different opinions.
09:05The idea of putting automobile tariffs on industrial policy is the idea of Vice President J.D. Burns.
09:14The current Vice President J.D. Burns has complete trust in the Trump administration.
09:21Of course, it's unpredictable.
09:23I'm not saying that there will be no deal.
09:26Is there a possibility that the market will change again when it starts to shake?
09:30The market is already shaking.
09:34But in the last election, I was elected by the people.
09:39Even if the economy gets worse, the people will accept it.
09:44That's what the government is saying now.
09:47President J.D. Burns' industrial policy is not about the industry.
09:53It's about the revival of the manufacturing industry.
09:56If he shows that the manufacturing industry is investing,
10:01he can achieve his goal.
10:04I don't think it's necessary to think that it will continue to be an industrial policy.
10:09I'm just showing that people have different opinions.
10:15Mr. Nakanishi, let's take a look at the contents.
10:18In the end, the total number of completed cars is 25%.
10:22The total number of parts is also 25%.
10:27What do you think about this?
10:29I was surprised to see that the 25% tax rate was at the highest level.
10:39On the other hand, when it comes to cars that meet the USMCA,
10:44a reduction measure has been taken.
10:46Originally, the total tax on Canada and Mexico was 25%.
10:50If you think about it from that point of view,
10:5250% of the content in the US is on average.
10:58So, it's reduced from 25% to 12.5%.
11:03I see.
11:04Originally, Mexico and Canada were said to be 25% for a different reason.
11:09So, if you think it's 25% for cars,
11:12in this case,
11:14for example, if you use parts and materials from the US
11:19to make a completed car in Mexico or Canada,
11:22it's not 25%.
11:23It's reduced from 25% to 12.5%.
11:25I understand that.
11:27The Nikkei Newspaper also writes like that.
11:30If that's the case,
11:31the burden on Mexico and Canada has become lighter.
11:36The big three and Japanese automakers,
11:38Toyota and Honda, have a production base in Canada.
11:41So, the burden has become lighter.
11:44So, I think it's hard to deny that they are heading in the direction of a slight reduction.
11:51Relatively speaking,
11:53it means that things exported from Japan, Europe, and Korea are becoming more severe.
11:59Relatively speaking, it means that the severity is increasing.
12:02Let's take a look at where they are actually exporting to the US.
12:08Here it is.
12:09In 2024, the US sold about 16 million cars.
12:1446% of them were imported.
12:17The main importers are Mexico, which is about 2.5 million,
12:21Korea, which is about 1.4 million,
12:23Japan, which is about 1.3 million,
12:26Canada, which is about 1.1 million,
12:28and Europe, which is about 7 million.
12:32Europe, Korea, and Japan export to each country.
12:38Mexico and Canada don't have major automakers.
12:42So, they export to other countries and build factories.
12:46This is the same with the big three in the US.
12:49Mexico and Canada were based in Mexico, where human resources were low,
12:53assuming that they would not be taxed.
12:57However, the situation is that they are taxed here as well.
13:01Mr. Nakanishi, which countries are affected the most?
13:07In terms of the amount of money,
13:09Mexico and Europe are the biggest importers.
13:12I see.
13:13If you look at the big three,
13:16Mexico, Canada, Korea, and Japan are about the same.
13:22To be honest, there is no way to escape.
13:28Everyone is affected in their own way.
13:31So, it's not that only Japanese automakers lose competitiveness.
13:36They import about 8 million units,
13:41which is about $30,000 per unit.
13:45If you multiply that by 25%, it's a lot of money.
13:50However, they make 8 million units in the US,
13:52so there is room for absorption there as well.
13:54So, if you accept all the prices per unit,
13:58it's about $3,800.
14:00That's the current basic market price.
14:03If you accept it at a fairly high price, you will be affected.
14:07I see.
14:08Mr. Hosokawa, what will happen here?
14:10As Mr. Nakanishi just said,
14:12if the market price goes up,
14:15I think it's inevitable in the US market,
14:19then the US market itself will shrink.
14:26That's what everyone is predicting.
14:28The demand will go down and the market will shrink.
14:34I think a lot of places are doing this kind of thing.
14:38If you look at a few American think tanks,
14:41there is a 10% mark.
14:44That's because the premise is different.
14:47When the market size shrinks to that extent,
14:51how will it affect the stock market?
14:55I think this will be a big point for the Trump administration's midterm elections.
15:03Let's go back to what Mr. Trump said earlier.
15:08Mr. Kotani, you said that the lowest price
15:12will lead to more than 15 trillion yen in taxes.
15:17Do you think this will lead to a reduction in taxes?
15:23Yes, that's what the Trump administration is thinking.
15:26In fact, the US consumers pay the taxes,
15:30but it's an impression that it's paid by a foreign country.
15:34Then the taxes that come in will be used for the reduction in taxes.
15:40The Trump administration's supporters believe that.
15:45I think this is a very important element in considering the future schedule.
15:51As I said, there will be a tax law in the summer.
15:57It's very important for the Trump administration
16:01to be able to say what the tax revenue is.
16:05So at this stage,
16:07I think it's time for the administration to show that this will continue.
16:16And I'd like to look at the impact it will have on Japanese economy.
16:20First of all, how much of what is exported from Japan to the United States
16:26will be used for automobiles?
16:29If you include automobile related parts,
16:32about one-third of it will be used for automobiles.
16:37And the impact it will have on employment.
16:40It's said that the automobile industry has a wide spectrum.
16:44From car manufacturers to small and medium-sized parts manufacturers,
16:48about 5.58 million people are employed.
16:52Mr. Nakanishi, I understand your opinion about whether this will lead to a reduction in taxes.
17:00But if this becomes expensive, it will have a big impact on employment.
17:06Yes. Out of 5.58 million cars exported,
17:10about one-third will be exported to the United States.
17:13I see.
17:14To be honest, I don't know how much this will affect the tax rate.
17:21But I think it will affect the tax rate by 10% or more.
17:27I think it will have a big impact on the tax rate.
17:31I think it will be a scary story if it becomes expensive.
17:35In terms of regions, there are Toyota in Tokai,
17:40and Matsuda in Hiroshima.
17:42And there are a lot of expensive cars in Kyushu.
17:45What will be the impact?
17:47In terms of regions, there is nowhere to run.
17:49You can't go to Tohoku, Kanto, or Aichi.
17:53And of course, Yamaguchi, Chubu, China, and Kyushu.
17:58I think there will be a big impact in each region.
18:03So, even if the manufacturer doesn't bring the factory directly to the United States,
18:11the number of cars will decrease?
18:14First of all, I think we need to separate short-term and long-term.
18:20To be honest, automobiles have long legs.
18:25So, I think it will be difficult to change the direction of production in the short-term.
18:31So, we have to accept it in large numbers.
18:34In the long-term, if it becomes really expensive,
18:38we need to bring it closer to American production.
18:42I think we can take measures like that in 3 to 4 years.
18:46Then, Japan's domestic industry will become more active.
18:49In any case, it will have a big impact on domestic economy.
18:54I don't know the exact number, so I will avoid it.
18:57But I think it will have a big impact.
19:00After the commercial break, we will dig deeper into the impact on Japanese manufacturers.
19:04The impact on Japanese manufacturers
19:09We will focus on the impact on Japanese manufacturers.
19:16First, let's take a look at the stock price.
19:19We are comparing the stock price on the 25th and 28th,
19:248 seconds before the announcement of the additional car tax.
19:27Matsuda's stock price fell by 10.5%, and it fell sharply.
19:33Nakanishi-san, Matsuda's stock price is the biggest.
19:37Honda's stock price is also falling.
19:40What do you think about the stock price?
19:42In terms of the effect on profit,
19:47the average is about 30%.
19:52In that sense, in the stock market,
19:56we are not sure if the car tax will be reduced by 25%.
20:02We are not sure.
20:04The stock price is falling, but we are not sure where it will settle.
20:10Some of the market participants said that it was the same 8 years ago.
20:15So, we are not sure if the car tax will be reduced.
20:18We are not sure yet.
20:23Nakanishi-san, you also talked about the impact on profit.
20:28Let me show you a bar graph.
20:31This is a bar graph of the impact of the car tax on recent business profits.
20:40For example, Nissan stands out.
20:43Nissan's recent business profits were very small.
20:46In this case, it is 300%.
20:49So, there is a negative effect on Nissan's current business profits by three times.
20:54That's right.
20:55If it was a normal profit, it would be about 5 billion yen.
20:59If it was a normal profit, it would be more than 5 billion yen.
21:02That's the scale.
21:03Now, the share price is small.
21:05It's 12.5 billion yen.
21:06The share price is based on the company's current operating budget as business profits.
21:12On the other hand, it is based on the total cost from Japan, Mexico, and Canada.
21:20So, if the share price is small, it will increase.
21:23However, Nissan, Mazda, and Subaru have a scale of almost 100% profit.
21:32Toyota and Honda have a scale of about 27 to 28%.
21:38So, the impact is relatively small.
21:42This is the result of our analysis.
21:44I think it was a simple calculation.
21:48But, in reality, how much of this can be changed by corporate efforts?
21:53This is an estimate of 100% of the total cost when a car manufacturer receives it.
21:58But, what actually happens is that the impact is divided into four major areas.
22:04The first is the increase in the price that the consumer receives.
22:09The second is that the margin of the dealer reduces.
22:16The third is the car manufacturer that makes and exports it.
22:19The fourth is the supplier that supplies the parts.
22:24I don't know exactly what the proportion will be.
22:29But, if you divide 25 by 4,
22:33the total cost that a car manufacturer receives will not be 25.
22:40So, in the case of Toyota and Honda,
22:44if the impact is 27 to 28%,
22:48and if it is 1 to 4,
22:51it is a level that can be absorbed by corporate efforts.
22:56Mr. Hosokawa, what do you think?
22:58Well, as Mr. Nakanishi said,
23:01I think the analysis of Japanese manufacturers is correct.
23:04I only look at Japanese manufacturers,
23:07but in the same way, I also look at Big 3.
23:11In particular, BGM imports 30 to 40% from overseas.
23:15So, they are said to make almost no profit.
23:20Then, what we have to look at is that this is applied to the whole world.
23:26In fact, Big 3 is also imported from overseas.
23:29Then, the market in the United States is shrinking.
23:32The price must be raised.
23:34As Mr. Nakanishi said, one of the options is to raise the price.
23:38As I said earlier, the market is shrinking.
23:41Then, the overall impact will be how it will happen in the United States.
23:45I think this will be a key to move the Trump administration forward.
23:51Mr. Kotani, in this case,
23:54Big 3, GM, Ford, etc.
23:58They are all on the verge of bankruptcy.
24:00For various layers.
24:02Even so, they are in a state where they are not working.
24:06What should we do about that?
24:08Are you saying that we should go back to the United States, including Big 3?
24:14I think the basic supply chain for automobiles
24:18is already in the United States.
24:21That is the basis.
24:23It leads to a policy that will have a negative impact on Big 3.
24:29On the other hand, President Trump himself is saying not to raise the price for Big 3.
24:35He is telling us to swallow the tariffs ourselves.
24:39On the other hand, he is also taking measures to reduce the market share
24:44by making the interest rate part of the automobile loan non-financial.
24:51Of course, we still don't know what will happen in the end.
24:56But I think we can see that the Trump administration is serious about automobile tariffs.
25:04What you just said, one of the benefits is like a tax increase.
25:08In other words, only users who have purchased a car made in the United States
25:14can get a tax increase when they make a loan.
25:20From the consumer's point of view,
25:23even if the price is a little higher,
25:26they can still buy a car made in the United States.
25:30That's the incentive.
25:32And for the manufacturers,
25:34he is telling them not to raise the price for cars made in the United States.
25:41Does this mean that Trump is doing this with the idea that this is not a negative impact on consumers?
25:47I think he is doing something very bold,
25:51such as changing the industrial structure and supply chain
25:55while keeping the consumers from getting a negative impact.
25:58Can I say something?
25:59Yes, go ahead.
26:00The price is determined by the market.
26:03What will happen if these tariffs are taken?
26:07There will be a shortage of supply.
26:09Why?
26:10Because you can't make everything in the United States,
26:12and the model mix doesn't meet the market needs.
26:15The situation is similar to the supply-demand balance of automobiles during the COVID-19 pandemic.
26:21There is demand, but there is less supply.
26:24Naturally, the price will go up.
26:26Even now, incentives are paying thousands of dollars per unit.
26:31As a result, incentives are falling like during the COVID-19 pandemic.
26:35As a result, the price of real estate is going up.
26:38I see.
26:39So, even during the COVID-19 pandemic, production was decreasing,
26:42but the market share of automobiles didn't go down that much.
26:45I think it's better to understand the price theory through this mechanism.
26:50It's not about how many percent of the total price will go up.
26:54As a result, we won't be able to make everything.
26:57Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a supply-demand balance,
27:01and the price went up.
27:03I think the price will go up in that way.
27:06That's right.
27:07Even if we intentionally change one-third of the price,
27:11the price leader will decide how the rival manufacturer will operate.
27:16Basically, the market will decide the price based on the supply-demand balance.
27:21As a result, the price will go up.
27:23That's one-third of the price.
27:25Even now, incentives are paying thousands of dollars per unit.
27:28As a result, the price will go up.
27:32What you mean by incentives is that
27:34if a manufacturer gives incentives to a store to use this much discounted goods,
27:41the consumer has to cut it down and sell it to the consumer.
27:45The consumer has to buy the actual price without the discounted price.
27:52In other words, the price will go up.
27:54That's right.
27:55As Mr. Nakanishi just said,
27:57the restriction of production supply is a big problem.
28:03If that's the case, why don't we produce domestically in the U.S.?
28:06That's the theory.
28:08That's why we're trying to invest in the U.S.
28:11But if you look at the real economy now,
28:16immigrants are decreasing,
28:19labor costs are rising,
28:21and if the supply chain is not strong enough,
28:26we can't produce in the U.S.
28:29If you look at the whole picture,
28:32no matter how much you invest,
28:34there is a limit to what you can do.
28:37If you look at that,
28:39and see if it's a realistic policy,
28:42I think it will come to fruition after a while.
28:45So now, we're just running ahead of the current theory,
28:48but I think it's a reality that it's going to be entangled.
28:51The real problem is that if you transfer parts and assembly factories to the U.S.,
28:55what will happen to the cost?
28:57I think the cost will skyrocket.
28:59There is no labor supply at all,
29:01and there is no supply chain.
29:03As you say, if you transfer it to the U.S., it will solve the problem,
29:06but in reality, it won't solve any problems.
29:09We need to understand this reality.
29:11I saw some movement in each manufacturer.
29:14That's right.
29:15It's the reaction of each company.
29:17First, the Japanese manufacturer Honda
29:19changed its next Civic Hybrid model
29:21to be produced in the U.S. instead of Mexico.
29:24Matsuda and Mitsubishi's
29:26exports to the U.S. in February 2025
29:29increased from the same month last year.
29:32Both companies have not missed the complete launch by the Trump administration,
29:37but there is a possibility that they will increase exports in March just before the launch.
29:41And the Hyundai Motor Group in Korea
29:44will invest $2.1 billion in the next four years,
29:47which is about 3.1 trillion yen in Japanese yen,
29:51to improve the ability of automobiles and invest in steel and steel-related industries.
29:56And Ferrari.
29:58Ferrari, which is produced in Italy,
30:00announced that it will raise the price of some cars sold in the U.S. by up to 10%.
30:05The CNBC in the U.S. says that
30:08it is likely to be raised by up to $43,000 in SUVs,
30:11which is about 6.5 million yen in Japanese yen.
30:15And President Trump, as I said earlier,
30:18said that the White House would not be happy with the rise of the U.S. automaker Canberra.
30:25Mr. Kotani, I think it's pretty rough to raise the price in this state.
30:33How do you feel about that?
30:35I think it's only rough.
30:39However, from an automaker's point of view,
30:42if you don't follow this, you won't know what kind of retaliation will be taken.
30:48Mr. Nakanishi, I think Ferrari is amazing.
30:52It's a fast rise.
30:54Especially in Japan,
30:56I think Trump is waiting for the Korean automaker to make such a big investment.
31:02Is there such a movement in Japanese automakers after this?
31:06Eight years ago, the Toyota Motor Company announced a fairly large investment package.
31:11It's still under consideration, but I think there will be some action soon.
31:17Mr. Ishiba, when you met Mr. Trump, you talked about Isuzu, right?
31:23It's still a matter of a few hundred billion yen.
31:27It's not that kind of story, it's a super unit story.
31:30And the mobility of Japanese automakers in the United States is already full and there is no room.
31:38For Toyota and Honda, it's already full.
31:43Nissan has a little bit of ability.
31:47Both factories have a lot of ability.
31:50However, Nissan also has room to bring it from Japan.
31:56But other Japanese automakers really don't have the ability.
32:00Then you can't deal with it.
32:02It's difficult.
32:04I think it's important to look at the big numbers of Hyundai.
32:09Japanese automakers have made huge investments so far.
32:13If you look at it in Korea, it's far less.
32:16It's really important to look at it from the root.
32:21President Trump himself only looks at what he did at the time.
32:28In Korea, there was actually an idea that this would prevent inflation.
32:35In fact, this government is taking this method of negotiating once it's activated.
32:43I haven't heard it at this stage.
32:45However, it's a matter of how this will work later.
32:49From now on, we will launch the characteristics of the Trump administration.
32:55We have to look at the fact that it's a negotiation from the beginning.
32:59I think it will lead to discussion in the future.
33:02Now, let's think about how Japan should respond.
33:06Let's think about how Japan will respond.
33:10First, let's look at the reactions of countries around the world.
33:13China has imposed additional tariffs on U.S. agricultural products.
33:22The Canadian Prime Minister has said that he will use all his power to fight back.
33:28The EU has announced the first round of retaliatory tariffs.
33:31However, the implementation will be postponed to mid-April.
33:35Prime Minister Ishiba has said that Japan will negotiate hard to get rid of tariffs.
33:42The UK also does not want a drastic reduction.
33:45India is the most cautious country.
33:48It is considering a reduction in imports from the United States.
33:52The more to the left, the more to the right.
33:56China's reaction is not limited to automobile tariffs.
34:02It's a little different.
34:04Overall, it's a little mixed up.
34:06That's how it's organized.
34:09Mr. Hosokawa, what do you think?
34:11I think it's a little different.
34:17It looks like Japan is taking an important balance.
34:23But I think it's more to the right.
34:27You're not thinking about retaliation?
34:29It's the pinnacle of caution.
34:31I see.
34:33The important thing is that in early March,
34:38Japan reported to the former Minister of Finance.
34:43At that time, he was the first prime minister to go to Latvia.
34:49At that time, he said he couldn't get anything, so he came back.
34:54After that, I looked at what was going on.
34:58I think it's a game.
35:01I don't think it's a game.
35:03I don't think it's a game.
35:05I don't think it's a game.
35:07I don't think it's a game.
35:09I don't think it's a game.
35:11I don't think it's a game.
35:13I don't think it's a game.
35:15I don't think it's a game.
35:17I don't think it's a game.
35:19I don't think it's a game.
35:21I don't think it's a game.
35:23I don't think it's a game.
35:25Do you think it's a chicken race?
35:27Do you think it would be more severe if the other party raised it?
35:31I've already announced that policy to Canada.
35:35I'm saying that if Canada complies with the reimbursement,
35:37we will raise the tax rate even more.
35:40I don't think Japan should think about reimbursing for experience.
35:47I just got a reply from a Trump administration official during the commercial.
35:54He asked me if Japan could escape from this situation.
36:00Compared to other countries, Japan has a higher possibility,
36:05but it is still very unlikely.
36:09If you want to do that, you have to send a tough negotiator.
36:17That's what Mr. Hosokawa said.
36:19That's what I heard now.
36:22That's what politicians say.
36:25That's why I told you at the beginning.
36:27You have to ask for a reimbursement.
36:29This is a one-on-one meeting with everyone, so it's impossible.
36:32If you're told it'll work out, you're bound to get caught up in it.
36:35A tough negotiator.
36:37That's right.
36:39The problem is how to negotiate.
36:42I think the strategy is important.
36:44I have something from Mr. Hosokawa.
36:46Can you bring it out?
36:48I actually have three.
36:51Mr. Hosokawa said that the Prime Minister is considering all options.
37:02I think he's expressing that he's not matured yet when he says these things.
37:10Rather, he's making it clear what the contents of the options are.
37:15I just gave you three.
37:19I don't think Mr. Hosokawa's choice is one or the other.
37:24I think it's all a combination.
37:26A combination of difficulties.
37:29I think this is a necessary point for a tough negotiator.
37:33One is that Japan has been investing so far.
37:38How to invest.
37:39There was an example of Hyundai earlier.
37:41Investing.
37:43Or buying LNG and other agricultural products.
37:48You're going to make a contribution.
37:50You're going to make a deal.
37:51This is the difficulty.
37:53The difficulty of the difficulty.
37:54The difficulty is actually very important.
37:56In Japan, unlike other countries,
37:58the Sino-US trade agreement was signed in 2019.
38:03I mentioned this when I was on the show last time.
38:07Between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump,
38:11while this is being carried out honestly,
38:14Mr. Mizunaga, please explain this.
38:19During the first term of President Trump,
38:21the Sino-US trade agreement was signed between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump.
38:24The joint declaration at this time was that
38:26while the Sino-US trade agreement was being carried out honestly,
38:29the Sino-US trade agreement and the progress of co-operative life
38:32should not be violated.
38:35In addition, Prime Minister Abe confirmed that
38:38he will not increase the additional tariffs by more than 232.
38:44This is a promise between the two leaders,
38:46and it is not just a verbal promise.
38:51That's right. You're pointing this out.
38:53This is very important.
38:55I think this is a Japanese property that other countries do not have.
38:59It is very important to bring this out properly.
39:06If the Sino-US trade agreement is violated at the executive level,
39:16at least at the executive level, it is a violation of the agreement.
39:21At that time, I informed the U.S. about the reduction in the tariff on agricultural products.
39:27The contents of the agreement.
39:29It would be strange if it was not withdrawn, including that.
39:32The Japanese side had a promise to reduce the tariff on agricultural products,
39:37but if they do this, they will not withdraw.
39:40That's because they broke the promise.
39:43At the executive level, I think that such a strong negotiation should be done properly.
39:48However, this is a promise between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump,
39:55so I think that Prime Minister Ishiba should directly talk about this with President Trump.
40:01At that time, even if he said it in a tough way,
40:06it was decided that he would reverse it.
40:08Then he had to say it more wisely.
40:10At that time, thanks to the promise of President Trump,
40:14Prime Minister Abe was able to persuade the industry to reduce agricultural products in Japan.
40:21And the National Assembly also expressed it properly,
40:26and somehow struggled to reduce the tariff on agricultural products.
40:32If this is not the case,
40:36what was that promise if the tariff is reduced?
40:39What about Prime Minister Abe?
40:41There may be criticism.
40:43This is a conversation between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump.
40:50This is something that only Prime Minister Ishiba can do.
40:53So I'm not saying this to make you angry,
40:56but I'm saying that there will be criticism from Prime Minister Abe.
41:02I think that Prime Minister Ishiba is the only one who can protect that promise directly to President Trump.
41:10However, at the executive level, as I said earlier,
41:14I think it is necessary to use the tough way of saying that if we reduce agricultural products, we will withdraw.
41:21Thirdly, this is a story that only Japan wants to avoid.
41:28Of course, that is also important,
41:30but now the EU, Korea, Canada, Mexico,
41:34I don't think it's necessary to do it with the tough EU and Canada.
41:38If Korea, Mexico, and other countries join forces to reduce WTO,
41:44Japan will not be the only one to benefit.
41:47Last time, during the Trump administration,
41:50Japan was the only country to reduce WTO.
41:56I don't think this is good.
41:58From the perspective of international cooperation that I have seen in the long term,
42:01I think we should work together.
42:04So, I want tough negotiations to be carried out with the cooperation between Japan and the United States.
42:09I don't think there is such a commander-in-chief in the current situation.
42:13Mr. Kotari, what do you think of Mr. Hosokawa's opinion?
42:16I think it's a fair argument.
42:19I think it is natural that we should not make President Trump angry.
42:24However, the international order and the international economic order are also important for Japan at the same time.
42:31So, I think we should consider working together with the EU and Canada.
42:38Mr. Nakanishi, do you think it's difficult for Toyota and Akiho to do something in terms of manufacturing?
42:47I think we can work together.
42:50However, I don't think we can take big action in terms of manufacturing
42:57in a completely independent way.
43:00I don't think the automobile industry will move as a manufacturer.
43:06The influence of the EU is also very big.
43:09I think the announcement will come out while taking good measures.
43:13In that sense, I think we are at a stage where we are looking at the situation.
43:18As a manufacturing side.
43:20So, as Toyota, I think we can only do that for the time being.
43:26That's the kind of comment I got.
43:28And finally, we have some time left.
43:30Next week, I'm a little worried about the comprehensive taxation.
43:35I think it's about this.
43:37Comprehensive taxation is the idea that if the other country is taxed higher than the United States,
43:42it should be taxed equally.
43:45President Trump says that if there is a non-taxable barrier, such as regulations,
43:50customs, consumption tax, exchange tax, etc., it should be taxed.
43:54Mr. Kotani, it's a lot of money just for automobile taxes.
43:59Is there anything else that will have an impact, including Japan?
44:03I don't think it will have that much of an impact on industrial products in Japan.
44:08But I think there will be some impact on agricultural products.
44:12The midterm elections in the United States next year.
44:16In particular, the members of the House of Representatives have a lot of agricultural products.
44:21So there may be difficult situations in Japan and the United States in terms of agricultural products.
44:27Can you tell us a little bit about the taxation rate between Japan and the United States?
44:32In the case of automobiles, the United States has been taxing them.
44:38In Japan, agricultural products are taxed.
44:43Mr. Hosokawa, what will happen to comprehensive taxation?
44:48Even if it's comprehensive taxation, it's not always in the same field.
44:53It's possible that agricultural products will be taxed on industrial products because Japan is expensive.
44:58Secondly, non-taxable barriers will also be counted.
45:03You don't just look at the taxation rate.
45:06At that time, there are a lot of things that can be said to be clues, such as
45:11Japan is doing something different from the United States in various automobile tests.
45:16There are pharmaceuticals and communications in each field.
45:23I think you have to open the lid to see what kind of things will come.
45:30That's all for the special. After the commercial, we'll have market information.
45:38Our guest for tomorrow's Nikkei Sunday Salon is a political scientist and professor at the Graduate School of Policy and Research.
45:45Mr. Ishiba will discuss issues related to the distribution of commercial rights and the reform of political funds.
45:50Please take a look.
45:52Now for the market information.
45:54On the 28th, the stock market in New York fell three days in a row.
45:59The end price was $715, which was cheap, at $41,583.
46:04Nasdaq, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, also fell three days in a row.
46:07The end price was $17,322, which was cheap, at 481 points.
46:12The end price of the New York foreign exchange market was $1,149, which was cheap, at $1,25, from 75,000 to 85,000.
46:20The average daily income in Chicago is 36,380 yen.
46:24It's about 740 yen cheaper than the average daily income on Friday.
46:30Looking at the price, it feels like it's being swung around by Trump.
46:35Yes, it does.
46:37Now, let's look at the stock market.
46:41Mr. Kubota of Rakuten Shouken has 38,000 yen.
46:44He predicts that some of the USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada agreement will be removed,
46:51and that if everything goes according to plan, it will lead to a global recession.
46:56Mr. Itoshima of Pictet Japan has 37,000 yen.
46:59He says that the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration is heavy,
47:02and that he is paying attention to when there will be a rise in daily income.
47:07Now, let's look at next week's plans.
47:10Mr. Hosokawa, what are you paying attention to?
47:13The Japan-U.S. Defense Negotiations.
47:16There's been a lot of talk about Japan's defense spending, like 3% of GDP.
47:23So, it's about what to do with this defense spending, and how to use weapons.
47:27The traditional pattern so far is important,
47:31but one more thing we need to think about is cooperation with the U.S.
47:35The U.S. defense industry has a production base,
47:40so how can Japan contribute to strengthening the production base?
47:45I think this is also important in terms of industrial cooperation.
47:48Mr. Nakanishi, what are your plans?
47:51I'm thinking about how the car tax will be implemented in the next three days.
48:00To be honest, I don't know until midnight on the third day.
48:04It may be postponed to the last minute.
48:08I think so.
48:09I'm looking at that, and I'm thinking about how the stock market will react.
48:13To be honest, we haven't been able to fully understand the impact yet,
48:18so I'm paying attention to how the market will react.
48:21And Mr. Kotani, what are you paying attention to?
48:24Earlier, we talked about the promise between the leaders.
48:28At the Japan-U.S. Defense Negotiations on February 7,
48:31Japan and the U.S. made a promise to strengthen the military-level adjustment.
48:37After that, we saw a move to withdraw from the agreement,
48:41mainly with Secretary of Defense Hegses.
48:44I think it will be a test to see how much the promise will be important to the government
48:50depending on what happens at tomorrow's defense negotiations.
48:56So I'd like to pay attention to that.
48:58There was also a delay in the cost reduction of the federal government.
49:03There was a move to withdraw the strengthening of the Japan-U.S. military.
49:07But it was decided that it would be done at the state level,
49:10so I'd like to pay attention to whether the government will turn it over at the national level.
49:16That's all for today.
49:17Thank you, guests.
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