Share Market April Outlook: March 2025 में शेयर बाजार ने जबरदस्त रिकवरी दिखाई! 📈 लेकिन क्या April में भी यही ट्रेंड जारी रहेगा? FIIs ने 6 महीने बाद net buying शुरू की🚀. Nifty-Sensex नए हाई बना पाएंगे या फिर रेजिस्टेंस का सामना करेंगे? GoodReturns पर Bhawna Gupta के साथ जुड़िए, जहां PACE360 के Co-Founder Amil Goel से जानेंगे -
✅ FIIs की वापसी का कारण
✅ अप्रैल में कैसी रहेगी मार्केट की चाल?
✅ अप्रैल के बड़े ट्रिगर्स
✅ निवेशक क्या Strategy अपनाएं?
पूरी जानकारी के लिए देखें वीडियो!
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This Muhurat Trading Saw Trades Across 2,431 NSE-Listed Firms, All-Time High Turnover Of Rs 14,091 Crore :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/muhurat-trading-saw-trades-across-2-431-nse-listed-firms-record-high-turnover-of-rs-14-091-crore-1312113.html?ref=DMDesc
~HT.178~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~
✅ FIIs की वापसी का कारण
✅ अप्रैल में कैसी रहेगी मार्केट की चाल?
✅ अप्रैल के बड़े ट्रिगर्स
✅ निवेशक क्या Strategy अपनाएं?
पूरी जानकारी के लिए देखें वीडियो!
#StockMarket #Nifty50 #Sensex #GoodReturns #StockMarketnews #BusinessNews #BusinessNewsHindi #BankNifty #TrumpTariff #Autotariff #ITsectors #ITshares #PharmaShares #BankingShares #NHPC #NTPC #Ireda #ircon #rec #coalindia #sharemarketlive #stockmarketlive #livenews #trending #latestnews #StockMarketAnalysis #ShareMarketAnalysis
Also Read
This Muhurat Trading Saw Trades Across 2,431 NSE-Listed Firms, All-Time High Turnover Of Rs 14,091 Crore :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/muhurat-trading-saw-trades-across-2-431-nse-listed-firms-record-high-turnover-of-rs-14-091-crore-1312113.html?ref=DMDesc
~HT.178~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you are watching Kudu Tongues.
00:11We have seen a lot of volatility in the share market in the month of March, however, the
00:15month of March has been such a month that it has given hope to the neighbors, because
00:20since last October 2014, we have been seeing how the market has been falling continuously,
00:26but the month of March has brought hope and we have seen the market rising here.
00:32If I talk about February, then the market was in such a state in February, if we go to
00:38the data, then on 28th February, Sensex fell by 1414 points and closed at 73,198.
00:45Nifty 50 fell by 420 points and closed at 22,124.
00:51Then came the month of March and today when we talk about March 28, that is, after exactly
00:56a month, if we look at the levels, then today the opening of Sensex was 73,198, it reached
01:0477,690, and the difference of almost 4,334 points has increased.
01:11Apart from this, if we talk about Nifty, then it has also increased from 22,124 to 23,600,
01:17that is, we have seen an increase of about 1450 points in it, that is, recovery is taking
01:24place.
01:25Now what are the expectations in April?
01:27Will there be a fall in April?
01:29The trend of the fall that has been going on for the past 6 months will continue, or
01:35after that, the way investors have received hope from the month of March, will this hope
01:41continue?
01:42Bull or Bear?
01:43What trend will we see in the market?
01:45To talk about this, we have Mr. Amit Gul with us, who is the co-founder of Pace360.
01:52Sir, first of all, welcome to Good Returns.
01:55Thank you so much Bhavna for a very warm welcome.
01:59And my best wishes to you and your team and all your viewers.
02:07Absolutely.
02:08Sir, at the beginning of March, they were connected around 2-3 March.
02:13At that time, you said 2-3 things like this, but it happened in the month of March.
02:17First of all, you said that recovery will start in the market.
02:21Secondly, you said that FII, that is, Foreign Institutional Investors, whose net selling
02:27has been going on for a long time, has been seen to be changing here.
02:33And our Foreign Institutional Investors have become net buyers here, not net sellers.
02:39So, both of these things have been proven to you.
02:42Now my question to you is, we saw that the buying of Foreign Institutional Investors
02:47has increased.
02:48What is the reason behind this?
02:50Because this has happened for the first time since December 2004.
02:53Bhavna, according to me, FIIs have sold India to the bare bone levels.
03:01So, in the first half of February and March, we were saying that they have sold so much
03:11that they are now sitting very, very underweight on India.
03:16And just like they were caught with an underweight age in China in September,
03:22and China announced a very big stimulus, and then we saw a very big rally in China.
03:28Similarly, I believe that by the time of the first week or 10 days of March,
03:34there were a lot of FIIs on the under-owned status in India.
03:40And it was, in my opinion, just a matter of time that they had to become buyers in the Indian market again.
03:48And according to me, if you talk about global macros,
03:53on one hand, China's market has increased a lot in the last 3-4 months,
03:59and now there has been a stagnation there for the last few weeks.
04:03So, those FIIs are not buying much in China right now.
04:07In Europe, there was euphoria in the middle, but now their buying is a little subdued in Europe
04:13because first of all, the market has increased a lot in Europe.
04:16And secondly, there is a very narrow market there because they were buying only defense and banking.
04:23They had already increased a lot of stocks.
04:25So, now their focus has shifted a little from China and Europe.
04:30And as a group, they are not very bullish on the US even now.
04:40So, they see a good market in India, which had come down a lot,
04:46the valuations had also become reasonable, they were sitting underweight on India.
04:51And most importantly, the tariff wars that are happening,
04:54because our overall export-import of goods, it is a much smaller percentage of our total GDP.
05:03So, India is largely a domestic and a services play.
05:07So, India is not affected as much by the tariff wars as, let's say, Mexico, Europe, or even South Korea.
05:16So, India has come to a sweet spot and we have seen a very big rally from a very oversold level.
05:24My sense is that in the next few days, we might be a little sideways
05:30because we saw a rally in Nifty of 1800 points in just 3 weeks.
05:35So, obviously, between 23,400 and 23,800, we might be a little sideways for a few days.
05:43But according to me, once the deadline for the 2nd of April tariff is completed,
05:50then I think we should see the next leg up in the rally.
05:55And I am pretty optimistic that we can see the Nifty of 24,200 level in April itself.
06:04We will talk about both the levels of support and resistance.
06:08If we talk about FIIs, what are your friends seeing in April?
06:12Will their buying momentum continue?
06:15Or can the trend we have seen in the last 5 months come back once again?
06:22No, I don't see that trend coming back so easily right now, Bhavna.
06:26Because it was a very big period, almost 5.5 months, when they kept on selling.
06:33That was a very exceptional period and the quantum of selling was also very substantial.
06:39So, according to me, that period will not come so easily.
06:43But yes, it is true that it is not like they will buy daily or they will buy 3000-4000 crores, 5000 crores daily.
06:54There is nothing like that.
06:55There would be a few days where they might even sell.
06:58There would be a few days where even the buying will be very less.
07:02So, all that will continue.
07:04But my sense is that between April and May, FIIs are on balance.
07:09They are going to be net buyers and not net sellers.
07:14So, I have a lot of hopes for April and May that FIIs will be net buyers.
07:20Even if they are not very big buyers, even if they are low-grade buyers,
07:25the conditions in the market are ripe for the rally to continue.
07:30And that is what I feel that over the next few days and weeks,
07:36we can see a higher level in the market.
07:40In April and May, you are saying that they will be net buyers.
07:43That is, the trend of buying can continue, especially in the next two months.
07:49Now, sir, let's talk about the share market, which you were talking about,
07:54Sir, in the month of April, what are the targets you want to give?
07:59What is the performance of the market?
08:01Especially in March, we can see that recovery has started in the market after mid-March.
08:06So, is this a recovery or a temporary one?
08:11Bhavna, according to me, I can see the rally continuing.
08:19There has been a small pause in the rally for the last 2-3 days.
08:23Nifty went up to Rs 23,870 and then we saw the figure of Rs 23,425.
08:31So, I think this is a good range.
08:33In the range of 400-500 points, we can easily spend another 1-2-3 days.
08:39But beyond that, I think there is bullishness in the market.
08:43This is number 1.
08:44Number 2, Bhavna, I am not long-term bullish in the market.
08:48Unlike most of my peers, who were saying in March that the market is long-term bullish and sideways in the near term.
08:58We were very categorical and I asserted to you forcefully that the market is not bullish in the long term.
09:07But in the short term and near term, we can see a V-shaped recovery.
09:12So, I think the V-shaped recovery has come to some extent and it will come to some extent in the coming weeks.
09:18But I am not long-term bullish, Bhavna.
09:20Because according to me, the valuations that were made in March were not long-term bottom valuations.
09:29They were temporary rally valuations and we are seeing that rally.
09:34But longer term, I am not bullish in the market.
09:37I will give the same advice to the investors.
09:40When this rally play-out is completed and there is conviction that there is not much to come in this rally.
09:47So, they should sell their stocks selectively.
09:52They should take money off the table.
09:55You had asked me at that time what to do about SIPs.
09:59I had categorically told you to continue SIPs as well.
10:05And I think there will be a time in April or May when we will again give this advice that you can discontinue your SIPs.
10:17You can do profit booking for the investments that you have.
10:23I am not advising you to do this right now.
10:25But I think this level can come between April and May.
10:31And I will keep in touch with you.
10:34And hopefully, we will be able to help the investors exit at a reasonably good level.
10:42This is my hope.
10:44You are not a long-term bullish in the market.
10:47But on the other hand, Goldman Sachs' report came out.
10:50In which it was said that Nifty can show levels of 27,000 by the end of this year.
10:57Sir, what is your opinion on this? What do you think?
11:01Bhavna, I personally don't think so.
11:07My scenario is that the market can be more bullish right now.
11:17And the levels were good.
11:19We can see the levels.
11:21But in my opinion, this is a relief, Bhavna.
11:25This is not a new bull run.
11:29This is not a resumption of the bull run.
11:32In my opinion, the old bull run got over in September.
11:37It peaked out in September, Bhavna.
11:39After that, the market went down.
11:42We are seeing a relief rally.
11:45This relief rally can go further.
11:48As I said, it can go up to 24,200 or even more than that.
11:55But I may not be able to stay bullish there.
12:00Although, global macros are evolving very fast.
12:04So, I can't commit to you that if I reach the level of 24,200, I will indicate there.
12:12But my current understanding is that this is a relief rally.
12:16And if it comes to 24,200 or more, investors should book some profit.
12:21They should take some money off the table.
12:24And the market will go down again.
12:26Absolutely, sir.
12:28As the market is going to be closed for 3 days.
12:32Today is the last day of the Karwai session for March.
12:37So, for the first week of April, which is going to start from April, our first week.
12:44Would you like to give any advice to the investors?
12:47Will you stay within the target of the market?
12:49If we talk about next week, when will the market open after Monday?
12:54Bhavna, I believe that we can see the level of 24,200 or more in the first 2 weeks of April.
13:03I have high hopes for the first half of April.
13:08So, I am bullish for that point.
13:11And I feel that if anyone has bought stocks on the downside, they should get a handsome profit.
13:18Over the next 2 weeks.
13:21But I can't say for sure what advice we will give there.
13:28But as of now, my thinking is that investors should book profit at the level of 24,200 or more.
13:36Sir, there is a buy and sell strategy in the market.
13:39So, my question to you is that will this strategy be effective or will the exit strategy be better?
13:47The strategy of buy on dips is working well till now.
13:52That you should buy stocks on the downside.
13:55But if the level of 24,200 or more comes, then our strategy will be sell on every rise and not buy on dip.
14:07So, as of now we are in a buy on dip zone.
14:12You can say that we are moving in that scenario.
14:15But if the market goes up from here, then we will come to the sell on rise strategy.
14:22And I believe that the chances of this happening in the first 2 weeks of April are visible to us.
14:29Sir, which sectors and if you want to tell about stocks specifically, which sectors will you be bullish on in April?
14:38What advice would you like to give to investors that there is a good opportunity for them to invest?
14:45Bhavna, the stocks that we discussed last time, oil marketing, gas marketing companies,
14:53and we discussed defense, aeronautics, railway stocks,
14:58all the beaten down stocks and a bit of financial services, a bit of banking.
15:05So, I think this should be a diversified portfolio.
15:09It is not a time to take concentrated exposure.
15:14The idea would be to diversify.
15:17I am not giving advice on IT, FMCG, and neither am I giving advice on electronic manufacturing.
15:30So, I am giving advice on those where the price earning ratios are low,
15:35whose valuations are reasonable, where earnings visibility is there,
15:40the company has a strong balance sheet, corporate governance standards are there.
15:44And I believe that in the sectors that I have mentioned, you will find many such companies.
15:51So, they should take a diversified portfolio.
15:55So, I think you will soon see 7-8% upsides in that portfolio.
16:07Sir, what are the major triggers that you can see in April that will impact the market?
16:14Bhavna, the 2nd of April is the deadline for Trump's tariff.
16:18So, I am not giving much attention to that.
16:22I believe that it is going to be a non-event.
16:26I don't think that India will be hit so hard that the story of India will go haywire.
16:33I think that there will be bilateral deals, give and take, and negotiations will continue.
16:42And I believe that this crisis will go away and it is going to be a non-event.
16:47So, it is the 2nd of April, but we still need to be careful.
16:51The 2nd is RBI's credit policy in the 1st week of April.
16:56So, we need to be careful there as well.
17:01Because it is a major event and some people are expecting a rate cut from RBI.
17:07The 3rd is that our corporate results will start coming in the 2nd week of April.
17:18So, we need to be careful about that as well.
17:21So, these are the 3 things that I can tell you about the timelines and events.
17:29But apart from this, the global macro is very dynamic.
17:33The world of geopolitics is very dynamic.
17:35So, there are constant changes.
17:38So, you cannot go into this market with any preconceived notion.
17:44You have to analyze every bit of data, every political development, economic development,
17:51every data, every event, and then you have to make a view.
17:56But as of now, my bias is on the upside.
18:00I think that there should be more upsides in the coming weeks.
18:05And I think that if there is an upside, then investors can adopt the Salon Rise strategy.
18:12But as of now, I think it looks good.
18:15Sir, you are seeing an impact on the auto sector.
18:20Because when we saw that the tariff on imported cars was announced by Trump,
18:25the share of Tata Motors crashed the most.
18:28So, are you seeing an impact on the auto sector after this tariff policy on imported cars?
18:34I don't think there will be any major impact from here.
18:39Because the market has already got 2-3 days to discount it.
18:44And the market has discounted a lot.
18:46So, I don't see any further impact.
18:51So, the auto sector has come down a lot.
18:55I am not very bullish in the auto sector.
18:57But I still think that we can get opportunities in select stocks.
19:02Particularly, I feel Bajaj Auto is a good stock.
19:07And I like the coming months of Bajaj Auto.
19:13Plus, you know that the extra deductions of income tax that our government has given in the budget,
19:20its benefit will start coming from April.
19:23I think that will increase the sales of two-wheeler.
19:27And Bajaj Auto will definitely benefit from it.
19:31So, I think you can selectively buy in the auto sector.
19:35But I am not talking about long-term bullishness from here.
19:39Basically, I am talking about a bullishness for the next few weeks.
19:43And I think we should get a good opportunity there.
19:48Sir, my last question to you is, what will be your 5 stock picks for the month of April?
19:55Bhavna, we are bullish in Tata Power.
19:58We are bullish in Bharat Petroleum.
20:00We are bullish in Mahanagar Gas.
20:04We are bullish in Bajaj Auto.
20:08And I will not tell you a separate stock in PSU Bank.
20:14But I will say that there is an ETF of PSU Bank.
20:17In which all the PSU Banks are there.
20:20I think that ETF is very bullish.
20:23So, these are some stocks and ETFs that I am liking.
20:27And I think they may outperform the market.
20:30If the market goes to Rs. 24,200.
20:33So, I think these stocks can outperform Nifty.
20:37And you can see a good gain.
20:42Sir, thank you very much.
20:44And the way we have been connected before.
20:47And all your predictions have always proved right.
20:50I am sure if our investors are watching this episode with you.
20:55So, they can make their own strategy.
20:58Sir, any last message for the investors?
21:03I would like to say to the investors.
21:05Warren Buffett has said this a long time ago.
21:09Be fearful when people are brave.
21:11And be brave when people are fearful.
21:14So, in March, I said the same thing to Bhavna.
21:17And I said that people are very scared at this time.
21:20But this is the time to be brave.
21:22And I think that it is still time to be brave.
21:26But if there is a good rise in the market in the next few weeks.
21:30And if you see that the people around are getting more bullish again.
21:35And people are taking a lot of risks in the market.
21:38So, I think the time will come over the next couple of months.
21:43When we will have to be fearful again.
21:46But right now it is time to be brave.
21:49It is time to make money.
21:51But if we follow this strategy.
21:54If we follow this saying.
21:56Then I think over the long term.
21:59You will always make money.
22:01Whether the market is down or up.
22:04Thank you very much.
22:06And if the investors have any questions.
22:08You can ask us in the comment section.
22:10After some time, we will connect with Amit again.
22:13And we will try to answer all your questions.
22:17Thank you very much to the viewers.