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00:00For more, let's speak to Gunay Yildiz, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.
00:04Hello to you and thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.
00:07How would you characterize a rivalry between Erdogan and Imamoglu?
00:13Imamoglu has been the most viable candidate against President Erdogan and he is the strongest
00:20candidate that the opposition have with a very wide appeal across the political spectrum,
00:26from the conservatives to left-wingers to liberals, pro-Western elites all together.
00:32But that ambiguity is an asset when it comes to electioneering.
00:36It becomes a liability when he needs to challenge President Erdogan on the streets because it
00:44doesn't provide enough core to galvanize the street process.
00:49So the street process we're seeing at the moment will likely diminish rather than escalate.
00:56The potential removal of Imamoglu from the election race, I think, opens the road for
01:02President Erdogan for another term in 2028.
01:06So it's a very high-level rivalry and President Erdogan himself was the Istanbul mayor before
01:16moving on to higher office roles and Imamoglu is the Istanbul mayor as well.
01:21It's interesting how their careers seem to sort of mirror each other but come from polar
01:25opposites.
01:26Two cases brought against Imamoglu, one focusing on the financial corruption, the embezzlement,
01:31the other on aiding a terrorist organization.
01:33Is either case strong?
01:38I mean, they're not that strong but they're not also like once unheard of kind of challenges.
01:48Many other political figures or academic figures, media figures were targeted with similar kind
01:54of accusations in the past and those were like kind of broadly not accepted but like
02:01tolerated by the Turkish public and the CHP itself when it kind of targeted other sections
02:06of the society.
02:07When it comes to Imamoglu now it creates like a shock because of his prominence but obviously
02:13the broader political context is critical here, like the timing and the nature of these
02:18charges like this strongly suggest political motivations especially for the opposition
02:24figures.
02:25But it's also, you know, occurs within three critical broader contexts.
02:29So there is an ongoing peace initiative addressing Kurdish militancy which could profoundly impact
02:34democratization effects in Turkey and this process is actually very, even more important
02:39than Imamoglu's removal.
02:41It might overshadow Imamoglu's removal in long term significance.
02:45A second important context is the geopolitical shift.
02:49Geopolitical shifts in the Middle East are pushing Turkey to solidify its internal stability
02:53and there's a narrative I would like also to your audience to know about is broadly
02:58mentioned by state officials and people close to them is strengthening the domestic front
03:04narrative.
03:05So removing Imamoglu aligns with this strategy, effectively safeguarding the current political
03:10structure against any electoral risks.
03:13And the third condition that this happens under the context is that international conditions
03:20are so favorable for Turkey's internal moves.
03:23So Europe's anxiety over U.S.'s policies under Trump along with diminished Iranian influence
03:29in the region increases Turkey's leverage both on Europe or U.S. at the same time.
03:35So an international, like significant international backlash is very unlikely and even it happens
03:42historically these international responses have rarely impacted Turkey's domestic decisions.
03:46So it's important to know this context when analyzing the situation.
03:52Great point.
03:53I want to pick up on one of them.
03:54You mentioned the Kurdish peace efforts in recent weeks.
03:56We've seen Erdogan's government make some overtures to the broader Kurdish population.
04:00The Kurds in the past have given some tacit support to Imamoglu's opposition party.
04:06Now if Erdogan makes enough concessions to placate the Kurds, where would that leave
04:12Imamoglu's party?
04:13Yeah, there are two points to focus on this.
04:17One of them is if Imamoglu is indeed removed from the race and the opposition's backup
04:21candidate, the Ankara mayor takes up his position, he has much less appeal towards the Kurds.
04:28So I would believe that despite giving critical electoral support to the CHP in the recent
04:35elections, Kurds would, when they have to choose between this second backup candidate
04:41who's more nationalist against the Kurds and comparing him with Erdogan and his coalition
04:46who started this Kurdish kind of peace process, I would believe at least they would at least
04:52stop voting for the opposition.
04:55So there is very slow evolution on minority rights or working class issues when it comes
05:00to the opposition broadly.
05:03Imamoglu is like an exception to a certain degree because of his appeal.
05:07But the opposition remained strongly nationalist and not very pro-minority.
05:12So if Imamoglu is removed, I think minorities, including the main minority is the Kurds,
05:19would stay away from the CHP, which also solidifies Erdogan's grip on the country.
05:25Solidifies his grip on the country, also does what you mentioned earlier about stabilizing
05:28the internal situation.
05:31Is Erdogan reaching out to the Kurds to destabilize the CHP or rather to make a stability in the
05:40country, to move towards peace?
05:41Is that more of an altruistic aim?
05:44I think instead of altruistic ends, I would use more calculated, rational choices.
05:51And I mentioned geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.
05:54I think Turkey is seeing these shifts both as potential opportunities as well as risks.
06:02So in order to appeal, geopolitics plays the main role in terms of starting to resolve
06:09the Kurdish issue.
06:11So it's not Erdogan himself actually is leading the narrative.
06:15It's actually his more nationalist candidate, more nationalist ally is running this process,
06:22which actually makes the process stronger because he, Erdogan's ally, Devlet Bahçeli,
06:27is the main figure who's like one of the main anti-PKK or anti to some Kurdish figure in
06:34the past.
06:35And he's taking up this kind of peacemaker role, which kind of gives credibility to the
06:41process.
06:42But it's mostly about geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and stability.
06:47Resolving the Kurdish issue is potentially more significant than removal of, in the long
06:52term, removal of Erdogan for Turkish foreign policy or for European interests or for regional
06:57dimensions.
06:58I'm also curious about the street protests at the top.
07:00You mentioned that they seem likely to dissipate rather than intensify.
07:04But some of the people on the ground, they're saying, I'm out here not for political reasons,
07:08but for justice.
07:10This is wrong, the cases that are being brought against him.
07:13And I'm curious if Erdogan, how he handles this situation, could he do anything that
07:19might actually tip the tide and make you think that these protests will end up getting
07:23bigger and move into a larger anti-government sort of position that will be very difficult
07:29for him to control?
07:30Yeah, that's a very important question.
07:32For that, I would resort to recent history.
07:35I think Erdogan has been one of the most experienced politicians when it comes to dealing with
07:41street protests.
07:42He faced, in 2013, the biggest protest across Turkey in Turkish history.
07:48And later, he faced other kind of incidents.
07:53In this one, how they use the police in different cities, how they control the media, even access
08:00to internet, shows they're very much on top of things.
08:04And also, the kind of, the Kurdish element is not necessarily there, which kind of makes
08:15it less strong, the opposition.
08:20And the second, so one of them, the reason why the protests may not escalate is Erdogan's
08:27expertise.
08:28Secondly, it's Imamoglu also lacks deep-rooted support from the public.
08:35As I said, he has a more ambiguous ideological appeal.
08:38And the street protests are largely being led by the youth at the moment.
08:43We will have to see whether this segment will be able to bring in other segments of the
08:47society to protest.
08:50And I see that, from an objective point of view, unlikely to happen.
08:53I mean, Erdogan faced way more important or significant challenges before this, and he
08:58was able to come out stronger out of them.
09:01You mentioned the geopolitical angle earlier.
09:03Some people wondering, with Donald Trump in power in Washington, maybe Erdogan feels emboldened
09:08to make moves like this.
09:10But regardless of that, there is one factor here that might make him reconsider the Turkish
09:17lira tailspinning after Imamoglu was arrested.
09:23This is going to cost Turkey money.
09:25The question is, how far is Erdogan willing to go?
09:28And how much is that lira going to suffer?
09:30What do you think will happen?
09:31Exactly.
09:32Like, the diminishing of the value of lira has been the most important consequence so
09:36far of this move.
09:39But otherwise, the historical foreign condemnation hasn't significantly altered Turkey's internal
09:45political decisions.
09:47But the economy is very significant.
09:49But I believe international markets are not necessarily seeing Turkish, you know, broader
09:53Turkish political landscape objectively enough, because Erdogan is not taking, you know, they're
10:00not just moves towards more authoritarianism, they're also moves towards addressing deep-rooted
10:07security concerns and human rights issues all at the same time through the Kurdish issue.
10:12The resolution of the Kurdish issue usually in the past ended up causing, you know, broader
10:19improvement of the democratic standards in Turkey back in 2013 to 2015.
10:24We've seen that.
10:25I believe the international markets will calm down.
10:29I mean, at the moment, lira diminished a lot, but it will calm down in the next few weeks.
10:34Gunay, thank you so much for your time here.
10:37Gunay Yildiz, Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics.