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00:00President Bola Ahmed Sinobu has declared a state of emergency in River State,
00:04suspending Governor Simila Ifubara, his deputy Ngozi Odu, and all the lawmakers
00:10for six months. This political turmoil further escalated from the Supreme
00:14Court's notifying the local government election, the demolition of the assembly
00:18complex, and the deepening rift between Governor Simila Ifubara and his
00:23predecessor, Nyesomu Ike. All of this and more we will be unpacking on today's
00:28show. I am Temitayo Peters, welcome to Guardian Talks.
00:41Joining us in the studio for an in-depth analysis is Temitakwe Olaya, fondly
00:46called Templar, is Guardian's news editor. Welcome to the show. Thank you, Temitayo.
00:51Alright, first of all, how will you react to this political turmoil that's been
00:55happening in River State? What has been happening in River State is not a
01:02surprise. Since the crisis broke out in October 2023, political watchers would
01:13know that there was only a determined end. It was that the governor, Simila Ifubara,
01:22we have to go. So all the plots, all the intrigues was like, how are we going to
01:29get to the end point, which is Ifubara must go. And before the declaration by the
01:36president yesterday, it was only two cards on the table. For the governor to
01:44resign, or for the governor to be impeached. Now, what the president did was
01:50to throw half from his shelf, a last card, which was declaring a state of
01:57emergency and suspending democratic institutions in rivers for six months.
02:03That window, the way it appears, gives the governor a lifeline. In the sense that
02:14while the president can still extend the state of emergency, if security
02:20intelligence at his disposal suggests to, the governor can still return to
02:28office after six months. Now, his return will not be dependent on acceding to the
02:38political agreement that was fashioned out prior to the Supreme Court judgment.
02:45I recall that last week, when the president was meeting with the Niger Delta
02:53helders, he expressed his frustration that the political crisis was lingering
03:02despite his presidential intervention. And he made a statement which already
03:08predicted what was to happen next. What he said was that in his private and
03:14public conversations on this matter with the governor, he had advised him to
03:20stoop to conquer. That phrase suggests where the president stands in this
03:27crisis. It's no doubt, it's very clear, the president is on the side of his
03:31minister, of the FCT, Nesamuike. So advising the governor of the state to
03:38stoop to conquer was like telling him to roll over the mats and succumb to
03:45whatever are the demands of the former governor who brought him to office. So
03:50when the president was expressing that frustration, it had already shown that
03:56there was going to be a conclusion to the River State crisis. Now the
04:02conclusion that was presented was the River State's APC giving the governor a
04:1048-hour ultimatum to resign. That expired. But on the first volume, the
04:19president was saying that the governor should obey the ruling of the Supreme
04:27Court. Now all attempts for the governor to obey the ruling of the Supreme Court
04:31was like you all witnessed, a macabre dance. The house were playing the
04:40lidali with the governor. And the house which failed to receive the governor to
04:45present its budgets as advised by the Supreme Court ruling, could sit to serve
04:53an impeachment notice on the governor. So it was going towards a predetermined
04:59end. Now the president's stepping in was to say, ha ha, let's give the governor
05:06another chance. Six months is enough time for both parties to go and judge all, and
05:14let the state have some respite. When we return after six months, I think the
05:20governor and the House of Assembly members should be ready to work together
05:24for the remainder of their term, which will be not less than two years. Do you think the
05:30state of emergency was necessary, or it was to neutralize Fubara and then, you
05:37know, gain control over Louisville State? Every reaction to that declaration had
05:47been in one way. The state of emergency was a hard knock to address that
05:56problem. The problem was political. Evoking the state of emergency was really out of
06:06the cards. It was needed to apply political solutions to political problems.
06:13Well, at the onset of this crisis, because the president was not in the
06:22middle ground, it was difficult for the governor to go full throttle into the
06:28agreement that was signed. The president had shown his hand clearly early in the
06:33day that he was on the side of Nisongweke. So it appeared that the governor was
06:42listening to other advice from the state, from stakeholders, from elders, from people
06:49within the state who were hedging their own. And, you know, in political situation, you
06:57count the costs. I give two scenarios. When the former governor of Edo State,
07:06Godwin Obaseki, went out on his war to fight his predecessor and godfather,
07:15Adamso Shomole, he knew what he was going to encounter. And he went all out
07:23to fight that war. At the end of it, all gimmicks, shutting out some members of the
07:30House of Assembly, working with lawyer members. When it was time for re-election,
07:40his godfather, who was then the national chairman of the APC, which was the ruling
07:46party, both in the state and at the central, denied him of the tickets. He switched over
07:54to the PDP and won his re-election. So those are, you know, when you are starting a war,
08:01when you are going to battle, there are so many scenarios, you never can tell the
08:07outcome. And that was what happened. So Governor Obaseki then went into that war and he saw it
08:16through. When he was denied the ticket, he crossed over to PDP and continued the war until he got
08:22his second term. And at the end of the day, when it was now his own turn to now hand over to his
08:27successor, he was also trying to play godfather by appointing someone to be the PDP candidate,
08:36but lost out in that game. So it's a give or take. In politics, politics is not morality,
08:42and that's what most people don't put on the cards, put on the table when they discuss.
08:48When you're discussing business, okay, you sign an agreement, terms and conditions,
08:54but when you're discussing politics, it's strictly not, it's not on white and black,
09:02you just have to play by the rules. And when you play by the rules in a game,
09:07there can only be one winner. So in this case of Rivers, as it stands,
09:14though the governor has another opportunity to reset, but it seems he's on the losing end in
09:21this battle. If you now reset and now walk towards the political agreement that was reached last year,
09:30so it will mean that fighting this battle at the initial, you didn't read the hand from the
09:38beginning. So you are rolling back the carpet to what you actually fought against. And I think
09:46that is only a political solution. Going to the streets, empowering militants, having people
09:55speak on public space on your behalf, will not achieve anything, because the president has
10:01wielded the big stick, and for six months, every democratic constitution has been suspended.
10:08So if he wants to return to office, it will be at the pleasure of the president.
10:13Right. All right, let's quickly touch the Godfatherism you made mention. How do we
10:18compare these two past political Godfather fallouts? I mean, you made mention of Obaseki,
10:24and then also Adam Sosiomole, then we also have Osiomole too. Okay, we have that. Then we have
10:32Tinubu versus Ambode. Is it the same way, or this is just playing out differently?
10:44Godfatherism is nothing new in our political history, except if you want to deny the facts.
10:52Where this is not similar to the example of Lagos, is that
11:03if you want to upstage a Godfather, you need to, just like every constitutional lawyer has
11:12said about the federalism we operate, there is too much power at the center. You know, so
11:19whatever you do that pitches you against the center, it's like a fight in futility.
11:31And I give an example. In 2004, there about when the former president then,
11:42Olusegun Basojo, wanted to impeach governor of Iketi state, Ayofayoshi.
11:51This was what he used, the state of emergency. And that was because the president who controls
11:59the center and controls every institution, both the military, the democracy, they say the separation
12:07of power. But what you've discovered is in our own practice of democracy, that separation is a
12:15bloodline. The president wields all the absolute powers. So at that time, the president used the
12:24state of emergency and got Ayofayoshi removed from office. Now we go to the administration of
12:34former president Goodluck Jonathan. At the time he used the state of emergency, it was not for
12:40political reasons, even though at that time there was a political crisis ahead of his re-election
12:48in 2015. But because of the security insurgency in the northeast, and in all the governors involved,
12:56the three northeast states, Bonu, Yobe, and Edamawa, were all on the opposition APC.
13:05So as a PDP governor, he tried to play by the rules, evoke state of emergency, but left the
13:14governors in office. Now at the time of former president Mahmoudou Buhari, which I want to now
13:21cite what happened between the current president and the governor then in office, Akinbombi Ambodi,
13:29when there was a crisis between the godfather and the godson.
13:34Ambodi had the president at the time, Mahmoudou Buhari, as a fallback option, and the president
13:42tried to mediate. He sent emissaries, including his vice president, Yemio Shibajo, all to Nohavio.
13:51So the only thing, just like in the case of Edo, when Oshomole was having the battle with
13:58Godwin Obaseki, was to wait for the governor at the time of primaries. And all efforts to
14:06settle that score proved abortive. So at that point, the president had to let the will of the
14:16people prevail. They've selected their representative to stand in for the election, and that was the end
14:22of it. Ambodi was denied a second term. And we would have thought in the worst case scenario,
14:29the issue going on between Wike and Fubara would be the worst case scenario, Fubara would be denied
14:36a second term, whether on the ticket of the PDP or any other party he decides to go to, or even
14:43be defeated at the polls, maybe by any candidate from the APC or any other party. That is showing,
14:52that is the godfather showing who he is, you know, against his godson. But when you have the
15:01tide is tilted now, because where the president stands is different. The way former president
15:09tried to intervene between Aswaji Tinumbu and Akil Ambodi is not the same way president
15:18Tinumbu is trying to intervene between Wike and Fubara. What president Tinumbu is doing is like
15:26giving an order that you must go to your godfather. So in that situation, the hands of the governor
15:36was tied, and it was further tied by the judgment of the Supreme Court. So at that point,
15:46the governor had been boxed to a corner, which was why I said earlier that it was going towards
15:53a predetermined end. He was either going to be impeached, or he was going to be advised to resign.
16:00You know, so looking at those scenarios, the role of the... and why is it important?
16:08All godfathers are scared of one thing, losing their grip on their godson.
16:17Not even the godson, losing their grip on the grassroots. Once a godfather
16:25loses that, it becomes ordinary. That's why any governor in office, the first thing, the first
16:34assignment is to have, even if you are from another party, is to have the lawmakers, the
16:39House of Assembly on your side. Then secondly, to have the local government, local government chairman,
16:47chairman on your side. So in any battle between a godfather and godson, the
16:56trophy is always who controls the House of Assembly, so that the governor can sleep with two eyes closed,
17:03who controls the grassroots through the local government chairman. And in this instance, in
17:09Rivers, the governor had been surrounded. He couldn't control the House of Assembly. So the attempt
17:18to control the grassroots, that is why Wiki was crying for the past one and a half years.
17:26He was always mentioning something, political structure, political structure, political structure.
17:31That was the structure the governor wanted to respond to by conducting a local government election.
17:40He tried to use his own party, the PDP, but because of the internal wranglings within the national PDP,
17:47he couldn't have his way. So they had to use another platform, another party to conduct local
17:53government election. And you could see that it was the local government election that triggered the crisis
18:00into the next level of Fubarama's goal, because that was what eats into the core of Wiki.
18:10And he had to like, all hell must be let loose. So allowing the local government chairman
18:22to remain in office would have been Wiki losing the grip of River State, and would have empowered
18:30Governor Simfu Bara. But because that was not possible,
18:38and with the Supreme Court ruling, it now gave the power back to the former governor. And at that point
18:45there was nothing the governor could do now to say, okay, 27 lawmakers,
18:52yeah, let's try to work together. All right, let's take a look at the section 305 of the
18:581999 constitution that President Bolotunabu evoked during his speech. A lot of people have
19:04argued that the president does not have the right to suspend a sitting governor. And then just one
19:12out of the section says that the president shall have power to issue a proclamation of the state
19:18of emergency only when the federation is at war. The federation is in imminent danger of invasion
19:26or involvement in a state of war. So how do you react to this? Does it even make any sense
19:34for the president to go ahead to suspend Governor Simu Bara? Like I said earlier, all the reactions
19:43that have trailed this proclamation of the state of emergency has gone one way. Condemnation,
19:51condemnation, condemnation. And it's because the intent of that proclamation was in the first place
20:05misplaced. You want to resolve a political solution, you must use political means.
20:13Trying to invoke the state of emergency on rivers was
20:25taking it to the extreme. And that is why all stakeholders from the NBA to political parties,
20:36even as we speak, the House of Representatives, were not able to sit today, form a quorum
20:46to accede to that. Because by the constitution, after the declaration, the National Assembly,
20:54both wings of the National Assembly will now have within 48 hours to either accede to the
21:01president's declaration or reject. That won't be easy with the Senate, you already know, of course
21:08you know why. The House of Representatives, it will also have a free passageway, despite the
21:17numbers maybe the PDP have in that house, which with that they are still not the majority party.
21:25But there will still be some back and forths before they virtually accede to the president's
21:32declaration. Now on the reason why, like I said earlier, the Supreme Court's judgments
21:43that undid everything the governor had done in the last 20 years, had already changed the
21:52coloration of the crisis in rivers from a political one to a constitutional crisis. So at the point when
22:01the Supreme Court judgment came, it tilted the balance for Governor Fubara. And in that sense
22:12it was duty-bound to obey the ruling of the Supreme Court. Now it's not, obeying the ruling
22:20of the Supreme Court is not even the big deal. All attempt to obey the ruling of the Supreme Court,
22:28so it was a game, it was a game the other side played to box Fubara to a corner.
22:38He went to the House of Assembly,
22:46they refused him entry. Okay, he gave another notice of a meeting where he would present the budget.
22:56The House said no, they only saw it on social media. So it was like, if the president had wanted
23:04to play the big brother role, obeying the ruling of the Supreme Court,
23:14though it was not in favor of the governor, but the governor was ready to. So it was as simple as
23:24both parties go and obey the ruling of the Supreme Court. So for the president to build
23:32the emergency act on that state, on the governor, showed that
23:40all along that he had been a partisan on the side of one party, he couldn't condone it any longer.
23:48It was the excuse of, there were two pipeline explosions that could affect the
24:03daily crude oil activity of the country, which could ruin our projections for the 2025 budgets,
24:16was just an excuse to hatch what had already been planned. And that was why I felt
24:28calling the speaker of the University House of Assembly to say, work with the governor,
24:34calling the governor to say, work with the House of Assembly, is not a big deal for the president
24:40to achieve. So hiding under the excuse of an explosion seems like something had been programmed
24:50to, and the time bomb had been ticking since last week, because on Wednesday, the governor met with
25:00the Niger Delta leaders and he told them point blank that he advised the governor to stop to
25:08conquer. And at that point, he was washing his hands of whatever would be the aftermath
25:16of the crisis. The day after, the FCT minister addressed a press conference and said,
25:25heaven will not fall if it just blow up pipeline. So where the rhetoric was coming from
25:34looks like something that had been rehearsed and they were working to script. So how does,
25:42if they said heaven will not fall, though he also added if Fubara was impeached, so also means that
25:51whether Fubara is impeached, whether pipelines are blown off, heaven will not fall.
26:01And that coming on the day the House of Assembly refused the governor entry into the complex to
26:08present his budget, showed that it was just a matter of days. So when, at the onset of this week,
26:18the assembly gave the notice of impeachment, we are already counting down to two weeks,
26:24between now and two weeks, the chief judge will act on it and set the process of impeachment
26:32rolling and all that. So it is either the chief judge was the person standing in between, whether
26:40to accede to the demands of the assembly with the allegations made against the governor, or whether
26:47the chief judge will discontinue the allegations and give the governor go ahead to continue
26:54governance and all that. We're still looking forward to how that will play out, when
27:03one strike, two strike, and in 30 minutes or one hour notice, the president was to address the
27:12nation. So it looked between last week, or let me say between when the Supreme Court judgment
27:19gave the ruling, and now, there was nothing Fubara didn't do to be on the side of the law.
27:27So how come all attempts to be on the side of the law and obey the Supreme Court ruling
27:31were rebuffed, showed that from the presidency down to the reverse status of the House of Assembly,
27:38they were working to a script. Now, in the interim of the six months,
27:45because the live lantern at the governor is at the pleasure of the president to extend
27:53the emergency or not, the governor's hand is now tied to accede to the agreement, the political
28:01solution that was made at the president's office last year. Now, the details of the
28:12political solution is not really different. This is why I say everything is working to a script.
28:19There is not much difference between the details of that agreement and the Supreme Court ruling.
28:25Everything is all what the governor has done since the program started was nullified. So it was
28:35whether you go to the left or you move to the right, you are going to meet the same.
28:40At center.
28:41Yeah, exactly.
28:42Okay, so are we saying now that if Governor Fubara and his predecessor Nwike does not
28:48make peace, there won't be peace in River State?
28:52There will be peace. There will be peace. But the crisis, that was why I said that the crisis
28:58is only instigated. It's just a disagreement between Godfather and Godson. But it is to the
29:10extent of how the Godfather has gone, that has brought governance in River State to a standstill.
29:19So what it means is, if the Godfather, if the Godson reconciles with the Godfather,
29:28then governance will continue. Now, at what price? Since 2023, in fact, the governor said it on
29:37several occasions that he couldn't govern the state. Every attempt, you know, all the things
29:45he was doing, trying to bypass the assembly, which is what has now been nullified. He was just
29:53trying to like, while in office, let me just make an attempt to keep governance going. But in the
29:59real sense of the word, it is the river's people that have been suffering for the past two years.
30:06And until this matter is resolved, there is no headway. And as it stands, the only resolution
30:15is to accede to the Godfather. Okay, so speaking about resolution,
30:19could this suspension lead to further legal battles? Or what are the possible outcomes?
30:27The possible outcome is one way. The National Assembly is going to accede to the declaration
30:38of the president. And once that is done, what the president said stands. So there is no way
30:48the courts will overrule the president at the National Assembly. If it will happen,
30:54it will not be in the lifetime of this administration. So that is a given.
30:59The president has said in his broadcasts that the suspension of democratic institution
31:08for six months is the first instance, meaning that the state of emergency can be extended
31:17by another six months. Now,
31:20now, since the extension or otherwise of the state of emergency is at the discretion
31:30or pleasure of Mr. President, what it means is that Mr. Governor must do all he can,
31:39all he can, to accede to the demands of Mr. President and by extension,
31:48Minister Vicky. That is the only way forward. The only way forward is for the Governor
31:56to accede. And in this instance, why the Governor is now on the back foot is that what was agreed
32:04during the resolution last year, there might be more demands added to that agreement
32:10because of the stretch this crisis had taken. So the only way out, there can only be two
32:17outcomes. It's either the state of emergency, despite all the commentary, despite all the legal
32:28considerations, despite all the, all what political parties are saying, civil rights movement,
32:36activists, lawyers, this state of the emergency has come to stay. So the only possible outcome
32:44is whether there will be an extension after six months or it will be lifted. And for it to be
32:51lifted, so there is no way the President will lift this state of emergency and will return
33:00to how it was before the declaration. So the final, the only outcome is that when the state
33:07of emergency is lifted, the Godfather will have had his wish because all the while the President
33:14was on the side of the Godfather. We don't have to go into details of that, but it's so evident
33:19that the President is on the side of the Godfather. All right. So your final thoughts before we call it
33:24a day. So my final thoughts is that there's really nothing surprising because this is all part of the
33:34intrigues and gameplay that will be going on ahead of 2027. And politics at this point,
33:45going forward, will take the front burner. Governance is going to the back seats.
33:53It's, there's nothing we can do about it. It's the way the polity has been structured.
33:59Former President Goodluck Jonathan had tried to find a way around this
34:08issue when at that time in office he tried to propose a single term rule of either five years
34:18or six years. So that if you are elected in office, you know you have five years or six years
34:23and you face your work. But the present system whereby you're elected in office from the first
34:30month, you are already, before even settling down, forming your cabinet,
34:37rolling out your programs, you are at the same time thinking of re-election. And by the time you
34:43are midway into your first term, governance is jettisoned for politics. That system, that system
34:52will not help our democracy. So my, and my last thought is that nobody should be surprised
34:59with what is happening in the rivers. Every politician is out for something. They fight
35:07for self-preservation. And some people will ask, why is it so, why is Wikiskey's
35:16so peculiar? And why is Fubara so, so tight? Now the reason is, look at the antecedents.
35:24Governor Fubara was at one time the, I think, Director of Finance, Governor's Office.
35:33Director of Finance, Governor's Office to Governor Wiki. And at the time he was moved from Director
35:39of Finance, Governor's Office to Accountant General of River State. So you already know
35:46everything about money being spent, coming in and going out. The present governor has a hand in it.
35:55Now towards the tail end of Wiki's administration, Governor Fubara was declared wanted.
36:02You know, he had no immunity. He was declared wanted by the EFCC. So it was a game of preservation
36:10for Wiki. And he played it both ways. When he was gunning for the presidential ticket of the PDP,
36:20he was looking for a way, you know, to, to preserve himself. That if he had been on that ticket,
36:27if he had risen on the tide of power must return to the south, and he had defeated
36:35at the primaries, Wiki would be standing as a presidential candidate of an opposition party.
36:43So anything you want to do to him, it will be seen like, oh, the president is trying to win
36:49charge to the opposition, blah, blah, blah. No, but when the fallout of that primary didn't favor him,
36:56using his words, all hell was let loose. So he had to play a strategic game in the sense that
37:03it didn't work for the party's candidates, but it was working more for the present president.
37:11Now the governor that they were using, that's Fubara that they wanted to use to nail Wiki,
37:17who held all the details of the accounts of River State, and was declared wanted. He was
37:26declared wanted prior to that election in 2023, has now become the governor, and now has immunity.
37:33So because he has immunity, it has suspended that case. And because it has suspended that case,
37:40it will be very hard to nail
37:45Nelson Wiki's evidence, because that was what, so they wanted to get Wiki through Fubara. Now,
37:55Wiki is now in the government, though he will say I'm still a PDP member, but he's in the government,
38:00so President Tinubu will not probe Nelson Wiki. Now, so that was the game he was playing,
38:10self-preservation. Now you are now in office, and the governor is saying, I see to my demands,
38:18I see to my demands. It was just what you signed into. So trying to play morality,
38:28which all politicians do, because politics is a game. You went to this game, you were
38:38wanted by the EFCC, you got the immunity of the governor's seat, and you want to upstage your
38:45godfather. Then it's like, it's no longer being, it's no longer a moral, it's a battle. So if you
38:52are defeated flat and square, you go home. If you had won the battle, we'll have clapped for you.
38:58No, but as it is now, there's no headway, except you go back to what some people call
39:08Baba Sokwe Krissi. So like it happened in Lagos State, when the president ordered the return of
39:16an impeached speaker, and all efforts to rigmarole around that crisis had no headway until that
39:29decision was made. So it is in Rivers State, Baba Sokwe Krissi, until Fubara goes back
39:37to kneel and beg Riki, there is no way forward in Rivers until 2037.
39:44Wow, thank you. Thank you so much, Temitopu Olaya, for your insight regarding this story.
39:51Anyways, Rivers State is at crossroads. We await what happens next. Stay tuned
39:57to Guardian Talks. I am Temitayo Peters. Have a great day.
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