Categoría
🗞
NoticiasTranscripción
00:00The economy is strong overall
00:07and has made significant progress toward our goals
00:09over the past two years.
00:12Labor market conditions are solid
00:13and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal,
00:18though it remains somewhat elevated.
00:20In support of our goals,
00:21today the Federal Open Market Committee decided
00:23to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.
00:26We also made the technical decision to slow the pace
00:29of decline in the size of our balance sheet.
00:32I'll have more to say about these decisions
00:34after briefly reviewing economic developments.
00:38Economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace
00:41in the fourth quarter of last year,
00:43with GDP rising at 2.3 percent.
00:47Recent indications, however, point to a moderation
00:49in consumer spending following the rapid growth seen
00:52over the second half of 2024.
00:56Surveys of households and businesses point
00:57to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook.
01:01It remains to be seen how these developments might affect
01:04future spending and investment.
01:07In our summary of economic projections,
01:09the median participant projects GDP
01:12to rise 1.7 percent this year, somewhat lower than projected
01:16in December, and to rise a bit below 2 percent
01:19over the next two years.
01:22In the labor market, conditions remain solid.
01:24Payroll job gains averaged 200,000 per month
01:27over the past three months.
01:29The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low
01:32and has held in a narrow range for the past year.
01:36The jobs-to-workers gap has held steady for several months.
01:41Wages are growing faster than inflation
01:43and at a more sustainable pace than earlier
01:45in the pandemic recovery.
01:48Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests
01:51that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance.
01:54The labor market is not a source
01:55of significant inflationary pressures.
01:59The median projection for the unemployment rate
02:01in the SEP is 4.4 percent at the end of this year
02:04and 4.3 percent over the next two years.
02:09Inflation has eased significantly
02:10over the past two years, but remains somewhat elevated
02:13relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal.
02:16Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data
02:19indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent
02:23over the 12 months ending in February
02:25and that, excluding the volatile food
02:27and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent.
02:32Some near-term measures
02:34of inflation expectations have recently moved up.
02:37We see this in both market and survey-based measures,
02:41and survey respondents-both consumers
02:43and businesses-are mentioning tariffs as a driving factor.
02:48Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures
02:50of longer-term expectations remain consistent
02:53with our 2 percent inflation goal.
02:56The median projection in the SEP
02:57for total PCE inflation is 2.7 percent this year
03:01and 2.2 percent next year-a little higher
03:04than projected in December.
03:06In 2027, the median projection is at our 2 percent objective.
03:13Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate
03:16to promote maximum employment and stable prices
03:19for the American people.
03:21At today's meeting, the Committee decided
03:23to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate
03:26at 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
03:28Looking ahead, the new administration is
03:31in the process of implementing significant policy changes
03:33in four distinct areas-trade, immigration,
03:37fiscal policy, and regulation.
03:40It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter
03:43for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.
03:47While there have been recent developments in some
03:49of these areas, especially trade policy,
03:51uncertainty around the changes and their effects
03:53on the economic outlook is high.
03:56As we parse the incoming information,
03:58we're focused on separating the signal
04:00from the noise as the outlook evolves.
04:03As we say in our statement, in considering the extent
04:06and timing of additional adjustments to the target range
04:08for the federal funds rate,
04:10the Committee will assess incoming data,
04:12the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
04:16We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy.
04:19We are in a policy stance, and we are well-positioned
04:22to wait for greater clarity.
04:26In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote
04:28down their individual assessments
04:30of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate based
04:33on what each participant judges
04:34to be the most likely scenario going forward-an admittedly
04:38challenging exercise at this time in light
04:41of considerable uncertainty.
04:44The median participant projects that the appropriate level
04:46of the federal funds rate will be 3.9 percent at the end
04:49of this year and 3.4 percent at the end of next year,
04:53unchanged from December.
04:55While these individual forecasts are always subject
04:58to uncertainty, as I noted,
04:59uncertainty today is unusually elevated.
05:02And, of course, these projections are not a
05:04Committee plan or a decision.
05:06Policy is not on a preset course.
05:09As the economy evolves, we will adjust our policy stance
05:12in a manner that best promotes our maximum employment
05:15and price stability goals.
05:16If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue
05:19to move sustainably toward 2 percent,
05:21we can maintain policy restraint for longer.
05:24If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly
05:26or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated,
05:29we can ease policy accordingly.
05:32Our current policy stance is well-positioned to deal
05:34with the risks and uncertainties that we face
05:37in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.
05:40This deterioration and to what extent it could be a leading
05:44indicator for hard data.
05:47We do see pretty solid hard data still.
05:49So growth looks like it's maybe moderating a bit,
05:52consumer spending moderating a bit, but still at a solid pace.
05:56Unemployment is 4.1 percent.
05:58Job creation, most recently, has been at a healthy level.
06:01Inflation has started to move up now, we think,
06:05partly in response to tariffs.
06:06And there may be a delay in further progress
06:10over the course of this year.
06:12And we are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity.