Israel launched massive airstrikes across Gaza early Tuesday, two months after the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect. Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the developments in the Middle East.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
00:12Dr. Schanzer, thank you so much for joining me.
00:15Pleasure.
00:16We have seen some new developments in the war between Israel and Hamas starting early
00:21Tuesday morning. Israel launched massive airstrikes across Gaza two months after the first phase
00:26of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect. To start off the conversation,
00:31can you explain why we're seeing this military action in Gaza right now?
00:35Sure. Well, you know, as we all know, there was a ceasefire that took effect. It was supposed
00:39to be a three-phase ceasefire. The first phase went reasonably well. There were problems
00:44along the way. Hamas was slow in providing the list of those that it was going to release,
00:49and in some cases there were delays. Certainly, there were tactics of psychological warfare
00:56being used. In one case, they had soldiers that were being held for the second phase.
01:01They were forced to watch the release of other hostages. The family saw their children, their
01:08loved ones watching this. The Israelis did not like that very much. But I think the big
01:13question really began to loom as we ended first phase, because second phase was supposed
01:20to basically entail the release of the remaining live hostages and for Israel to leave Gaza
01:26permanently, in other words, to end the war. But all the while, the Israelis were watching
01:32Hamas continue to try to organize militarily. They continued to hold the Gaza population
01:38hostage. There was just a general sense that this was not something that was sustainable
01:43from an Israeli security perspective. There are some in Israel who point out that if this
01:49Israeli government had agreed to a permanent end of the war, we would have likely seen
01:54the collapse of the current right-leaning government. That's probably true. But I do
02:00believe that at the end of the day, the Israeli public largely is on the side of Benjamin
02:04Netanyahu, who wants to destroy Hamas once and for all to make sure that this threat
02:10no longer exists on Israel's southern border. And so that's why I think we're watching this
02:15take place right now. And the Israelis have been striking at key targets across the Gaza
02:22Strip.
02:23I'm curious what you think the responses from Hamas is going to be, because the Hamas front
02:28health ministry said that over 400 people were killed in these airstrikes. How do you
02:34think they're going to respond?
02:36Well, I mean, first, let's just acknowledge that the Gaza health ministry is, of course,
02:41Hamas, right? Their job is propaganda. They've been using this so-called health ministry
02:47from day one of this conflict to over-inflate the number of casualties reported. Amazingly,
02:53we've been watching many in the American press essentially regurgitate these numbers without
02:59even trying to do any fact-checking. And it's hugely problematic, because I suspect the
03:05numbers are lower, and there's also the question of how many militants versus civilians have
03:09been killed. I'm going to guess here that the number of militants is rather high, and
03:13the number of civilians is rather low.
03:16The real question, though, is what kind of capabilities Hamas has. And here I think we
03:21just should not expect there to be a lot. They don't have a lot of rockets left. And
03:26the more that Israel targets that underground infrastructure, those tunnels, I think the
03:32less Hamas will be able to bring rockets out from underground in order to fire them. The
03:37Israelis have taken out a number of the remaining leaders of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They haven't
03:44taken out Mohamed Sinwar, the brother of Yahya Sinwar, who was the mastermind. He's the guy
03:49that's running the war in Gaza right now. But they were able to take out, I think, another
03:53dozen or so senior leaders, or at least whatever's left of the senior leadership. I don't expect
03:59there to be a significant backlash.
04:03But what I would say is this, that the Israelis are attacking Hamas at the same time that
04:09the United States is striking at the Houthis in Yemen. You get a sense right now that together,
04:16Israel and the United States are weakening the Iranian axis, this network of six proxies.
04:23The broader strength of Iran is flagging. And moreover, the president of the United
04:31States warned the Iranians that if they direct the Houthis to attack Israel or the United
04:38States, that Iran will be held to account. So you get a sense, maybe, that the entire
04:44Iranian proxy network may be being picked apart right now, right before our eyes, and
04:50that Iran, with any luck, will be deterred.
04:55To your point about the United States and Israel in tandem right now, the United States
05:00attacking the Houthis, Israel launching their airstrikes, there is reporting that Israel
05:06told the United States that these airstrikes were going to happen beforehand. National
05:09Securities Council spokesperson Brian Hughes reportedly said this, quote, Hamas could have
05:15released hostages to extend the ceasefire, but instead chose refusal and war. Hamas wants
05:20the negotiators of the ceasefire deal to hold both Israel and Netanyahu, quote, fully
05:25responsible for violating and overturning the ceasefire. So as of now, what do these
05:30airstrikes do to the ceasefire talks?
05:33Well, I think that when the airstrikes began, it was widely described as phase 1.5 in the
05:44ceasefire talks. In other words, what the Israelis had had floated to Stephen Whitcoff,
05:50the envoy for the Trump administration for these negotiations, they said, look, we can't
05:55agree to end the war. Hamas continues to engage in a military buildup. We can continue to
06:01watch maneuvers in the Gaza Strip. There's no way we're going to let these guys continue
06:05to operate there or to continue to exist, for that matter. But here is something that
06:10they were willing to float. They told Whitcoff, well, look, how about we keep a ceasefire
06:15through the month of Ramadan, which we're in right now. There's about two and a half
06:19weeks left. And have it extend all the way through the end of Passover, which would take
06:24us roughly into mid-April. This was the agreement that the Israelis put on the table. Hamas
06:30refused to do anything of the sort. The Qataris, the primary mediators, joined Hamas in rejecting
06:38this. I think the Egyptians did it as well, if I'm not mistaken. And so there was an opportunity
06:43to extend this thing without going into the phase 2 that Israel wouldn't be able to accept.
06:49Quite frankly, it didn't seem that the United States was particularly interested in pushing
06:53the Israelis, knowing what the fallout might be. So there was this other opportunity. Hamas
07:00rejected it. I think it's still on the table, as far as I understand. I mean, these airstrikes,
07:05it's not like Israel has put thousands of boots on the ground. So there isn't like a
07:10large ground maneuver that Israel would have to call back. These are airstrikes that are
07:14taking place by various aircraft against military targets. That can stop, I think,
07:22the moment that Hamas says, yes, we're willing to release another five or 10 hostages in exchange
07:28for several weeks of quiet. That would, I think, be the preference here for everyone,
07:33the United States, Israel, maybe just not Hamas or Iran.
07:37I am curious. I'm thinking about the hostages right now. Does this jeopardize their safety
07:42at all? Because Hamas's senior political leader said that Netanyahu's decision to
07:48launch these airstrikes is essentially a death sentence for the living hostages in Gaza.
07:54Well, I think that's a big fear. And we are seeing the hostage families in Israel
07:58decrying this move because they had hoped to get the remaining, we're hearing some dissonance here,
08:02somewhere between 19 and 21 live hostages and another couple of dozen bodies that are still
08:08being held by Hamas. It's those 19 or 21 that the Israeli public would love nothing more than
08:15to get back. But again, I think the question is, would Israel trade them coming home for
08:24ending the war? Will Israel allow Hamas to continue to exist and to continue to build up
08:29its military infrastructure in Gaza in exchange for getting these Israeli hostages released?
08:39That's not something that many Israelis are going to say yes to. Certainly,
08:43the families of the hostages, certainly those on the Israeli left, they're saying,
08:47get the deal done. Absolutely, no matter what it takes, these people have suffered enough,
08:52and they have suffered. There is no doubt about it. More than 500 days in Hamas captivity,
08:57subject to torture and starvation and living in tunnels. No one wishes that upon anyone.
09:03But I think right now we're looking at a strategic decision undertaken by the Netanyahu government
09:09that allowing Hamas to remain in Gaza, to grow stronger in Gaza, to rebuild in Gaza,
09:15that was something that I think the Israeli government was just simply unwilling to countenance.
09:21What then does Hamas do? Because can Hamas survive this? Can Hamas survive what Netanyahu
09:27described as increasing military force? Will they surrender and say, hey,
09:31let's get to the negotiating table? I mean, what do their next moves look like?
09:36Well, look, I think they're going to sustain some damage. There's no question. For me,
09:41the big question mark is how much damage are they willing to sustain?
09:46Are they willing to give up? I mean, I think waving the white flag is an option for Hamas.
09:50You've got to remember, this is a terrorist organization that once controlled an area
09:54that's roughly the size of Washington, D.C., a population of about 2 million people.
09:59They've left it in total rubble. They have left the people in total despair. They have
10:05lost the support of the people. By and large, there are still some that want to come out and
10:09support it. And we're seeing them. These are young men in tracksuits picking up AK-47s.
10:14But really, instead of that 30,000 or 35,000 man force that existed before the war began,
10:22right now we're looking at 5,000 to 10,000, most of them untrained, most of them
10:26not able to operate the heavy weapons, not able to fire the rockets. They can essentially operate
10:33with AK-47s in an urban warfare setting. This is not going to bode well for Hamas.
10:39I think for me, when I watch this endgame play out, I wonder about whether other Iranian proxies
10:45try to get back into the action. I see most of them as very weak. So Hamas is not going to find
10:51support from Hezbollah. They are largely wiped out. The Syrian Shiite militias, no longer
10:58operational because the Assad regime fell in Syria back in December. The Iraqi Shiite militias that
11:06had been firing, we don't see much from them right now, and they look somewhat deterred.
11:10The Houthis are now being engaged by the United States military, sustaining really just a massive
11:18bombardment campaign. Iran lost its air defenses back in November. They're not likely going to get
11:26back into the action because they're very vulnerable. So Hamas is fighting this alone.
11:31And the question is, are they willing to fight to the very end as a symbol of what they would
11:37call Palestinian resistance? That's one option for them, and it's a grim option for all of us
11:42to watch a war along those lines. The other is that they agree to do something along the lines
11:47of what the PLO did in Lebanon, where they agree to leave, they surrender, and they go on to a third
11:55country and perhaps live to fight another day. I suspect that's what the Trump administration
12:00and maybe what the Israelis are going to be pushing for in Doha as these negotiations continue
12:06amidst live fire in Gaza. And I know that there are a lot of questions that remain to be seen,
12:12as you said. But is there any indication, as the expert here, of what this very end looks like?
12:18Does it look like they wave the white flag, that they surrender? Does it look like they fight to
12:23the very end? What are your senses here? Look, I think that the ideology of Hamas
12:30lends itself to fighting until the last man. And I say that with no glee. It is a grim
12:39prospect to consider a war that is fought to the finish in this way. Usually wars will end with one
12:46side waving the white flag. I think that is the logical option. It is the humane option for Hamas
12:53to embrace. If they continue fighting, it's only going to bring more misery and more destruction
12:58upon the Gaza Strip. And I don't think anybody wants to see that. But as long as Hamas continues
13:05to fight, Israel has very little choice but to fight in return. What they need to do is to release
13:11the hostages and to wave the white flag. That has always been the answer here. The war was
13:17never going to work out to Hamas's advantage, not unless somehow all of Iran's proxies got together
13:24and joined up to fight Israel. That, of course, didn't happen. So right now Hamas is fighting
13:29alone. And again, I suspect this is going to be a grim and drawn-out end to the war if Hamas does
13:36not surrender. And once again, I'm thinking about these hostages right now. In conversations with
13:42you and other experts, the hostages have always been top of mind for Israel. Is there a sense
13:49on the ground in Israel, is there a lot of support for Netanyahu for these airstrikes?
13:53Because when you're thinking about Hamas then saying this is essentially a death sentence
13:57for the hostages, what are people thinking right now? Are they supporting Netanyahu?
14:03Look, Netanyahu is in a tough spot right now, actually, because just a couple of days ago,
14:09he made a move to fire the head of his Shin Bet, the internal security services,
14:14essentially Israel's equivalent of the FBI. And that was already lighting up the streets. The
14:21opposition to Netanyahu is getting heated. They're talking about putting people out in the streets
14:26in large numbers. And there are challenges already underway from a legal perspective against
14:31this move. This happens already as the hostage forum, the families of the hostages, those that
14:36have been returned alive or dead, those that are still in Gaza alive or dead, the families have
14:41banded together. They are a powerful political force on the Israeli left. They are also attacking
14:47Netanyahu. On the right, however, Netanyahu has significant support. And even, I have to say,
14:53amongst many in the center who want to see Hamas destroyed, who want to see Iran cut down,
14:59who want to see all these other Iranian proxies cut down, this is where I think Bibi has that
15:05core support that he has long enjoyed. I'd say that Israel's probably split 50-50, 60-40,
15:11really hard to know exactly where the public is at this exact moment. I think we'll be getting
15:16some polling numbers coming out in the very near future. Now that the war has started back up,
15:21we'll get a sense of what public opinion has to say about these maneuvers. But I think Netanyahu
15:27is likely safe with this pursuit of the war, the resumption of the war, because Hamas did not
15:33release the hostages, because Hamas still poses a threat to Israel, and because all the proxies
15:38are still out there, and Israel has a bit more fighting to do if it's to win.
15:43I am curious. Finally, I want the United States' perspective here. As we know,
15:49the first phase of the ceasefire was negotiated with the Biden administration, as well as Trump's
15:55special envoy, Steven Whitkoff. Two months later, I'm curious, the ceasefire was ended, Trump is in
16:02the White House. What is the Trump administration's influence right now on what's happening in the
16:06Middle East? It's enormous. I think you have to understand that right now, early on, Trump said,
16:14Bibi can do whatever he wants. He gave a green light. And Bibi understood that he had the green
16:21light. I was at one point joking that he was a little bit like the dog that caught the mailman,
16:26right? I mean, he didn't quite know what to do. This decision that he could do whatever he wanted,
16:30it landed in his lap. And actually, you saw him freeze up for a bit. And he continued to allow
16:35these negotiations to play out, as we called it, phase 1.5, trying to get additional fighters,
16:41or rather additional hostages, released in exchange for Hamas fighters, in exchange for
16:46another six weeks of calm, give or take. And when that did not appear to play out,
16:52when it appeared that that had reached a dead end, this is when Bibi started striking Gaza,
16:58again started striking Hamas. But he did it after the American-led strikes on the Houthis.
17:06In other words, he joined in after Trump had already started this campaign against the Iran-backed
17:11terrorist organization in Yemen. It really does look like, at this point, coordinated activity.
17:17And I have to say, the psychological impact of that right now on Iran and its network of proxies
17:23is significant. For Iran to look on somewhat helplessly as the United States degrades the
17:31Houthis, and as Israel degrades Hamas, there is powerful messaging right now that I am sure is not
17:37lost on the rest of the Arab world, and certainly not on the Iran terror network that has been
17:43active for the last year and a half. So I think the shadow of Trump looms large across the Middle
17:48East right now. And I think that the big shadow right now is cast over the Islamic Republic of
17:54Iran. They are watching right now. They know they're weak. And finally, before I let you go,
18:00what specifically are you looking out for next? Well, I want to see how degraded the Houthis
18:07become, because the big question is whether they start firing ballistic missiles at Israel as
18:12Israel ramps up their attacks against Hamas. So that's, I think, part of the equation. The other
18:18one is all eyes on Lebanon again. Hezbollah still exists. It's a lot weaker. Its leadership is in
18:25total disarray. And it's really unclear what kind of fighting force it can muster right now.
18:31But I would watch for that too, because they still have an arsenal of, let's say,
18:3450,000 or 60,000 rockets and missiles that can be deployed. But the big thing that I'm watching for
18:40is whether the U.S. and Israel reach an agreement as it relates to the Iranian nuclear program.
18:46This is the existential threat in the region. The rest of this stuff is tactical or strategic,
18:51does not rise to the level of something that will keep the Trump administration up at night.
18:55But nukes developed by the Islamic Republic, that is a serious challenge, and there is
19:01major opportunity right now. I cannot overstate this, that the air defenses of Iran are down.
19:09They do not have the ability to repel an attack. If the U.S. and Israel decided to go into Iran to
19:15destroy those nuclear facilities, that is something that is very feasible right now.
19:20And as we watch things heat up, what Iran does could have very serious ramifications for the
19:27survival of the regime. So that's what I'm watching at this moment.
19:32Dr. Shanzer, certainly a lot to look out for. Per usual, I always appreciate your expertise.
19:37You are welcome back anytime. Thanks for joining me.
19:41My pleasure. Thank you.