Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Good morning.
00:13Today is the 15th of March.
00:14It's the Nikkei Saturday News.
00:16Let me introduce today's guests.
00:19This is Mr. Takashi Hiroki, Chief Strategist of Manex.
00:23Thank you for joining us.
00:25And this is Mr. Shunsuke Kobayashi, Chief Economist of Mizuho.
00:29Thank you for joining us.
00:32And this is Mr. Masayuki Tamura, Editor-in-Chief of Nihon Keizai Shimbun.
00:36Thank you for joining us.
00:37Thank you for joining us.
00:39Now that we have all three guests here, let's take a look at this week's topic.
00:42This week's topic is the market.
00:45Japan, the U.S., and the stock market.
00:50This time, especially since January of last year,
00:56the maximum profit is 3.6 million yen a year.
01:03I'm sure some of you have invested up to 7.2 million yen.
01:09But the stock market is down both in Japan and the U.S.
01:13so I wonder what we should do.
01:16I'm sure many of you are wondering if we should hold back or retreat.
01:21So, while looking ahead to the stock market,
01:25I'd like to take a look at the stock market and dig deeper into this area.
01:30Yes, and here we have Trump Session.
01:35Yes, we don't know what will happen in the end.
01:39Recently, the word Trump Session has been used to refer to Trump's recession.
01:46However, the stock market will move depending on Trump's policy.
01:50So, of course, the topic is how we should look at this.
01:54Yes.
01:55Now, let's take a look at this week's topic.
01:58Let's take a look at how the Japanese and American stocks are doing.
02:09Since the Trump administration came to power,
02:14the market has been in turmoil due to the increasing inflationary policies.
02:24In an interview with Fox News on the 9th,
02:28President Trump was asked if he would predict a recession.
02:32He replied that there is a short period of time before the economy is able to adapt to the inflation.
02:37He did not deny the possibility of a short period of time before the economy is able to adapt to the inflation.
02:43After that, the New York Dow fell by 4 days to 13 days,
02:48and at the end, it fell to $4813.
02:52The total decline was $1,988.
02:58The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of the Treasury
03:03did not care about the 3-week decline,
03:07and showed a strong stance.
03:10On the 13th, President Trump was told that the EU and the European Union had announced a return on interest,
03:18and expressed 200% interest in avoiding the EU.
03:23The interest policy has continued to be unclear.
03:28On the 14th, the New York Dow fell to $41,488.
03:34It fell to $41,488 on the 5th,
03:37but we do not know if it will continue to fall.
03:41The people who are worried about this situation
03:45are those who started investing in the New York Stock Exchange in January last year.
03:52It is said that many of them are buying index-type investment options for the stock market around the world.
04:01It is said that some people are wondering if it is okay to continue investing in the US stock market, which is at the center of it.
04:11What is the investment strategy at this unclear time?
04:18And what will happen to the Japanese stock market, which is likely to be dragged down by the US stock market?
04:25At one point, the Japanese stock market fell by 37,000 yen, but on the 14th, it rebounded.
04:31Compared to the US stock market, which is said to be in the adjustment phase,
04:34the Japanese stock market fell sharply,
04:38and recovered 37,053 yen and around 37,000 yen at the end.
04:46However, it seems that the situation where you cannot predict the future of the stock market,
04:51such as the influence of the exchange rate due to the rise in Japanese silver, and the Trump administration, will continue for the time being.
04:57What is the future development of the Japanese and American markets?
05:03The future development of the Japanese and American markets will proceed with these three themes today.
05:08First of all, let's start with the Japanese and American stocks.
05:13The Japanese and American stocks continue to develop at an alarming rate.
05:18The Japanese and American stocks continue to run around 37,000 yen.
05:24Yesterday's end was 37,053 yen.
05:28From last fall to the end of February this year, the annual market price of 38,000 to 40,000 yen
05:34has come down to the level of 38,000 yen.
05:41Last year, the market price rose 19% in one year,
05:45but this year it has fallen by about 7%.
05:49Last July, the market price fell by about 12% from the highest point.
05:54On the 14th, the market price of New York Dow Jones fell by about 2,000 dollars.
06:02On the 14th, the market price of New York Dow Jones fell by about 2,000 dollars.
06:09However, from last December's highest point of 45,014 dollars,
06:14the market price has fallen by 7.8%.
06:18I don't understand this, but Mr. Hiroki, what is the cause of this?
06:23One of the reasons is that the Trump administration's
06:30anti-nuclear policy has been in the limelight for a long time.
06:37It is unclear whether the anti-nuclear policy will be implemented or not.
06:48So we don't know where this will land.
06:52Even if it is implemented, the impact it will have on the world economy is unknown.
06:59This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:04Another reason is that the Trump administration's policy
07:09has been in the limelight for a long time.
07:12It is unclear whether the Trump administration's policy
07:17will be implemented or not.
07:20This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:26This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:31This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:36If there is a concern about inflation,
07:39it will be difficult to lower the price.
07:43That's right.
07:45The high-tech companies in the U.S.
07:50The high-tech companies in the U.S.
07:53have been supported by the U.S.
07:56because they have a higher interest rate.
08:00But we don't know what will happen.
08:04The U.S. is selling a lot now.
08:07The U.S. is selling a lot now.
08:10The U.S. is selling a lot now.
08:13Let's look at the high-tech companies.
08:16The P.R. is how much liquidity is paid for per share.
08:22The P.R. is how much liquidity is paid for per share.
08:25The P.R. is how much liquidity is paid for per share.
08:30The highest right-hand side is that
08:33all the major companies are going down.
08:40Mr. Kobayashi, is there a reason behind all this?
08:43Yes, there is no doubt that it was because of the Trump administration.
08:48However, the biggest problem is that the US stock market has always had a sense of heat,
08:55and it has begun to adjust to that.
09:00If this is a problem with the stock market,
09:03it is difficult to explain why the Chinese stock market, which is most affected by this, is performing so well.
09:10As a result of the intense rise in the US stock market in the past,
09:15the US stock market is highly evaluated, as shown in the PR.
09:19On the contrary, the US stock market has come to a point where it cannot continue to grow unless it produces high-quality materials.
09:26The Trump administration has been doing well until last year,
09:34but in order to reduce the US stock market, it needs to produce high-quality materials.
09:37In other words, it is a complete reduction.
09:39This time, the bad part of the US stock market is coming out.
09:42I think it can be said that the materials to adjust the US stock market are coming out of this year.
09:48So, where is the money that was flowing to the US going now?
09:55Yes, where is the US stock market flowing to?
09:58As Mr. Kobayashi said, it is also flowing to Chinese stocks.
10:02It is also flowing to international stocks and gold, which are considered safe assets.
10:07On the 13th, gold exceeded $3,000 for the first time per 1.4 trillion.
10:12It is also seen that money is flowing to European stocks, which are falling behind.
10:19Mr. Kobayashi, again, if you say that it is a complete problem,
10:23Europe and China are also affected, so it would be strange if it didn't go down.
10:28But on the other hand, money is flowing.
10:31It is also going to gold as a safe asset.
10:34It is also going to the United States.
10:37How do you analyze this again?
10:40Until now, I think it was a situation where money was gathering too much in the US.
10:46However, if you think about it,
10:48the Trump administration's policy is not always rosy for the US economy and companies.
10:55I think that gold is now the adjustment material.
10:58However, it is not that the funds themselves are disappearing.
11:01The theme now is where to sell US stocks and where to let go of funds.
11:05For example, if it is a US stock market,
11:08it is a place where there is still a 4% interest rate, so this is attractive.
11:13Or, if there is a high possibility that inflation will continue in the future,
11:17there is a possibility to buy gold to hedge it.
11:20Or, unlike American stocks,
11:23it is cheap and has a theme on top of it.
11:26For example, there is a policy expectation for China,
11:29and a policy expectation for Europe is to restore the border,
11:32or to expand exports in Germany, etc.
11:36Now, the funds are flowing to a place where it is cheap and has a theme.
11:41I think it's a situation where American stocks are being adjusted for that amount.
11:46I think this is a miscalculation of this year.
11:51Well, last year, there were a lot of things like this year's forecast.
11:56Speaking of the bad situation, China is in a very bad situation,
11:59and Europe is also in a very bad situation.
12:02So, China and Europe cannot buy.
12:05However, it is difficult for the US to buy because it is concentrated.
12:08In that case, Japan is in a pretty bad situation.
12:11Well, it was seen as if money would come into Japan as well.
12:16After all, because there is no place to go,
12:19money will continue to come in.
12:21So, Japan and the US stock prices are good,
12:24and China and Europe are not good.
12:26I think that was the consensus.
12:28However, this year, it is completely the opposite.
12:31That is to say, if it's not good, it's not good.
12:34China is already in a very bad situation.
12:37The government is leading the economy,
12:40and there are some parts that are actually effective.
12:43So, Europe is doing a lot of fine work in its own way.
12:47I think that's what supports the stock market.
12:50On the other hand, what the US is doing is
12:53rather bouncing back to its own place.
12:56As Mr. Kobayashi just said,
12:59the US companies are doing more and more
13:02policies that are not very good.
13:05In the case of Japan,
13:08it's okay to say that there is no policy at all.
13:11If that's the case,
13:13there's no way money will come into Japan.
13:16But if the Chinese banks are showing
13:19that they are bouncing back to their own place,
13:22I think it's only natural that money will go to
13:25Europe and China, as it is now.
13:30Mr. Tamura, in the Nikkei Shimbun,
13:33you continue to write articles in the field of asset management.
13:36What are your thoughts on the analysis so far?
13:40Well, in NISA,
13:43the investment rate of foreign companies
13:46has changed a lot.
13:49There's been a lot of debate about whether
13:52S&P and American companies are better
13:55or whether Orkan is better all over the world.
13:58Orkan has changed a lot,
14:01but there were quite a few investors
14:04who were very focused on S&P
14:07because they thought the US was strong.
14:10But Orkan is about 8%.
14:13It's relatively safe.
14:16As Mr. Hiroki said,
14:19there are a lot of countries other than the US
14:22that are doing well,
14:25such as New Zealand.
14:28But I think the current phenomenon
14:31is that distribution is important.
14:34Orkan, All-Country,
14:37and American companies
14:40make up about 40% of the total.
14:43But they are still divided,
14:46so there's still a lot of damage.
14:49That's right.
14:52American companies make up 40% of the total.
14:55All of the companies in the US
14:58are made in the US.
15:01So if you look at it from a Japanese perspective,
15:04it's a good thing.
15:07Because the remaining 40% is from other countries.
15:10Let's look at Kawase.
15:13Kawase is also
15:16going up in price.
15:19It's still in the range
15:22we saw last year,
15:25but it's going up in price.
15:28Mr. Kobayashi, what do you think?
15:31I have the impression
15:34that Japan and the US are doing well.
15:37As for the US,
15:40it's a risk-off,
15:43and the US is buying back.
15:46I think Japan is doing well.
15:49I think Japan is doing well.
15:52I think Japan is doing well.
15:55I think Japan is doing well.
15:58As the long-term interest rate is going up
16:01and the US-Japan interest rate is going down
16:04and the US-JAPAN interest rate is going down,
16:07yen is going up.
16:10How about you, Mr. Hiroki?
16:13The interest rate is going down.
16:16But before that,
16:19the Kawase market is still
16:22at a very low level.
16:25The price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:30I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:33I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:38I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:41I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:42I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:43I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:44I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:45I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:46I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:47I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:48I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:49I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:50I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:51I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:52I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:53I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:55I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:56I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:57I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:58I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
16:59I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:00I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:01I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:02I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:03I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:04I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:05I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:06I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:07I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:08I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:09I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:10I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:11I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:12I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:13I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:14I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:15I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:16I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:17I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:18I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:19I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:20I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:21I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:22I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:23I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:24I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:25I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:26I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:27I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:28I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:29I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:30I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:31I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:32I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:33I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:34I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:35I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:36I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:37I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:38I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:39I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:40I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:41I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:42I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:43I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:44I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:45I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:46I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:47I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:48I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:49I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:50I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:51I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:52I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:53I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:54I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:55I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:56I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:57I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:58I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
17:59I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:00I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:01I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:02I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:03I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:04I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:05I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:06I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:07I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:08I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:09I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:10I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:11I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:12I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:13I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:14I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:15I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:16I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:17I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:18I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:19I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:20I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:21I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:22I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:23I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:24I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:25I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:26I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:27I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:28I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:29I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:30I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:31I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:32I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:33I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:34I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:35I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:36I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:37I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:38I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
18:39I think the reaction to this is that the price of yen and yen yasu has gone up quite a bit.
19:00Let's start with Mr. Kobayashi.
19:02You wrote about how the Japanese and American stocks will fluctuate this year,
19:07and how the dollar and yen rates will fluctuate in the meantime.
19:15Mr. Kobayashi, could you explain that?
19:17Yes. I think we're going to go through a bit of a worrisome period from now on.
19:22Specifically, in early April, the final issuance of joint bonds and bonds for Mexico and Canada.
19:29We're waiting for that deadline.
19:32To be honest, I don't think it's going to be easy to find out what's going to happen by then.
19:39But if it does come out, there's a possibility that we'll be able to put on a song.
19:45And it's easy to forget, but when it comes to bonds and government employees,
19:51there's a tendency to think that it's a way to get the money through.
19:57But on the other hand, if you can get the money through,
20:01you don't have to be so fast.
20:04Then I think the timing of the money getting through will be a big turning point.
20:09If it were summer, I think we could expect a big return in that area.
20:16In any case, it's a big influence on Trump's policy.
20:21Let's talk about bonds and current bonds.
20:26Let's start with bonds.
20:29Recently, iron and aluminum bonds were issued on the 12th.
20:33In Japan as well, 25% additional bonds will be issued.
20:38It will be interesting to see how bonds will be issued on automobiles in the future.
20:43Secretary-General Antony Blinken appeared on Fox Business on the 14th.
20:48He said that if he were to impose a car tax on a country,
20:51he would have to impose a car tax on all countries.
20:55He also pointed out that Japan would not be a target.
20:59In addition to mutual tariffs that raise tariffs to the same level as trade,
21:04the Trump administration will make the details clear on April 2.
21:09Next, let's look at the current tax regulations.
21:13This is the economic policy that the market expects.
21:17The Trump administration's economic policy that the market expects has a current tax.
21:21Lowering the tax on legal personnel,
21:23increasing the current tax on personal income,
21:25and imposing exemptions on chips and remittances will be considered.
21:29And there will be expectations on the regulations.
21:32The regulations on greenhouse gas emissions,
21:36coal and natural gas mining, and so on.
21:40Mr. Kobayashi, again, including the expectation of the stock market,
21:44April 2 is a complete dead end.
21:48After that, it will be almost like this.
21:54At the stage of solidification,
21:56one is that the transparency will be corroded.
21:59And after that, where will the current tax be decided by the Congress?
22:02This is a big point, isn't it?
22:05As you said, I think these two will be the mountains ahead in about half a year.
22:10At the beginning of April, as I said earlier,
22:15there are quite a few menus lined up.
22:18If this is decided,
22:20I expect that it will not break through at this speed.
22:27What Mr. Kobayashi is saying is,
22:29for example, steel and aluminum have remained so far,
22:33but in the case of automobiles,
22:35including Japan, this 25% tax will be applied to them.
22:39In other words, it is not used as a means of deal.
22:43Even if this remains,
22:45will it become such a stock price?
22:47In that case, will it be a completely different scenario?
22:49What do you think about that?
22:50Yes, if this is really full,
22:52I think that the timing will come once
22:56that it will be a completely different scenario.
22:59To give you a specific number,
23:01for example, the cars Japan exports to the United States
23:04cost about 8 trillion yen a year.
23:06So if a 25% tax is applied,
23:08it will cost about 2 trillion yen.
23:10Or what is made in Mexico or Canada and sold to the United States
23:14is also 5 trillion yen,
23:16so if a 25% tax is applied,
23:18it will cost about 1.3 trillion yen.
23:20It will cost about 3.3 trillion yen in total.
23:22It will cost only in the automobile sector.
23:25Then, if you look at the daily average,
23:28even if it goes down by about 5%,
23:31I don't think it's strange at all.
23:33Then, the main scenario that Mr. Kobayashi is thinking of
23:36is that automobiles are used as a material for deals
23:39and the main scenario is to put down the fist that Trump raised somewhere.
23:44Is that okay?
23:46Yes, that's the main scenario.
23:48If it really gets the worst,
23:50I think it will be in the form of lowering this range by about 5% overall.
23:56Thank you for waiting, Mr. Hiroki.
23:58It's the same as Mr. Kobayashi that it goes up at the end of the year,
24:04but there is a mountain before that, right?
24:06Yes, that's right.
24:08I think the story of the mountain is right now in April.
24:12After that,
24:14for example, what is there in Japan?
24:17I think there will be a decision announcement from the end of April to the middle of May.
24:22After that,
24:24I think it will probably be a one-digit increase in sales.
24:32So, if you fold in the expected increase in sales in the next term,
24:37I don't think it's such a difficult scenario to recover the daily average of 40,000 yen.
24:43At the moment, the 37,000 yen level is quite low,
24:47so 37,000 to 40,000 yen is actually only 3,000 yen,
24:50which is less than 10%.
24:52So, I think it's enough to fold in the one-digit increase in sales
24:57to recover the daily average of 40,000 yen.
25:00I think there will be another downturn in the future.
25:05In the summer, it's a tough time for the Japanese economy.
25:09There are various things like the summer drought.
25:12I think there are two difficulties for the Japanese economy.
25:15The first is that the daily average of sales will probably come around June or July.
25:23So, once you recover 40,000 yen,
25:26the daily average of sales will be a bit of a burden for the Japanese economy.
25:35So, it would be nice if the Japanese economy could recover the daily average of sales,
25:40but I don't think it will.
25:42So, I wonder how much the Japanese economy will recover.
25:46So, I wonder how much the Japanese economy will recover.
25:51The other one is the political risk.
25:53There will be a third round of elections in the summer.
25:56So, I don't know if the Ishiba administration will hold the election.
26:01Recently, it's been very cloudy,
26:05so I don't think the Japanese government can see through it.
26:13Last time, there was a small number of parties that argued about it.
26:19In the end, it didn't solve the problem.
26:25If there is a third round of elections in a situation where the issue of money is getting more and more chaotic,
26:31what will happen to Japanese politics?
26:35In that sense, I think that the Japanese financial policy, politics, and risk will be a burden for the Japanese economy again in the summer.
26:45Mr. Tamura, you two have made predictions so far,
26:48but what can you say from the perspective of asset management?
26:53Well, when I listen to what you say, I think there are a lot of risks in Japan and abroad.
26:59On the contrary, for those who are investing in real estate,
27:04I think it's better to buy it at a low price.
27:08So, I think it's better to think of it as a chance rather than a risk.
27:13I see.
27:14Mr. Hiroki, you just talked about financial policy.
27:18Let's take a look at the schedule for this year's financial policy in the United States.
27:23It's like this.
27:26Mr. Kobayashi, what are you paying attention to in the next five years?
27:29I'm paying attention to both.
27:32First of all, I think it's necessary to take a good look at what kind of schedule we will continue to implement this year.
27:46Well, a year ago, the results of Shunto were pretty good.
27:51It was a little bit of a roll-up, and there was a little bit of a roll-up,
27:57but this year, Shunto seems to be landing with good results.
28:02On top of that, the actual inflation rate is also fluctuating.
28:06Then, the market was expected to resume business at a pace of about once every six months.
28:13However, I don't think it's wrong for us to think that we're going to react a little bit ahead of the curve.
28:21I think that communication will come out as soon as next week.
28:29In terms of the expected range of exchange rates,
28:33Mr. Kobayashi is looking at moving from 140 yen to 155 yen this year.
28:41Once again, what do you think about this?
28:43Yes.
28:44The raw material of the yen and the raw material of the yen and the price of the yen,
28:49if you look at the whole thing, it's a little bit of both.
28:52There used to be a yen that reached 160 yen,
28:57but the yen material at that time is no longer there.
29:01Of course, there is a difference between Japan and the United States,
29:04but more than that, with the rise in resource prices since the war in Ukraine,
29:09the red market for Japanese trade has expanded dramatically.
29:12This is because of the sale of the actual yen and the rise in the price of the yen.
29:16However, this has also been decreasing,
29:18so I don't think it's easy to think of a sharp rise in the price of the yen.
29:22But on the other hand, is it going to be a sharp rise in the price of the yen?
29:26Of course, that may be the case temporarily,
29:30but even if the difference between Japan and the United States is decreasing,
29:33there is an overwhelming difference.
29:35Or even if the red market for Japanese trade is declining,
29:38the red market is still there.
29:40So I don't think it's going to be a sharp rise in the price of the yen or a sharp rise in the price of the yen.
29:46I think it's okay to look at it that way.
29:50Mr. Hiroki, what do you think?
29:52It's close, but I think it's up to 160 yen in the price of the yen.
29:56Yes, I've seen 160 yen once,
29:59so I think it's almost the same as Mr. Kogai.
30:04But if I add it up,
30:07that's exactly what I mean by the lack of material.
30:10Most of the material that's moving right now is gold and silver.
30:15It's not just gold and silver,
30:17it's more like the direction of Japanese and American financial policy.
30:21America is down.
30:23It's stopped now, but it's coming down.
30:27In Japan, the only thing that's paying attention to is the rise in Japanese yen.
30:32But how much can we raise?
30:36In a country with such a low potential growth rate and a declining population,
30:41what kind of material are we going to raise?
30:44I'm not even sure if I'm raising it right now.
30:49It's going to take a long time to talk about it, so I'll leave it at that.
30:52So how many more times are you going to do it?
30:55How far are you going to take it?
30:57There's a lot of talk about the middle class.
31:00Roughly speaking, how many more times?
31:04If we're talking about at least twice,
31:08I think we're going to run out of it this year.
31:11Then, in the end, there will be no more material to buy yen.
31:21As I said earlier, if the economy is moving only by financial policy,
31:26In a sense, if the Japanese yen reaches the terminal rate,
31:30If the Japanese yen reaches the terminal rate,
31:33If the Japanese yen reaches the terminal rate,
31:38I think there's a high possibility that it will reach the final reach of the production economy this year.
31:44I don't think we'll be able to do any more of that.
31:48Then, in line with what I said earlier,
31:53I think it would be strange if there was a situation where yen and yen would be rewound at the end of the year.
32:02After the commercial break, we'll think about how to operate Shinnisa.
32:10Next, we'll talk about Shinnisa's investment strategy.
32:16First of all, please take a look at this.
32:19As of February, we have a large amount of pure assets,
32:23We've lined up the funds that are targeted by Shinnisa.
32:26The top two products are the ones that are the most important.
32:30The first is E-MAXIS, which is invested by a top American company.
32:34S&P 500, a U.S. company.
32:36The second is E-MAXIS, which is the world's investment target.
32:40All Country, a global company.
32:43The large amount of pure assets means that many people are buying it.
32:48However, as you can see, the operating performance in February is all negative.
32:56It's called the so-called S&P 500.
33:00In Japan, we've been focusing on these two things since the start of Shinnisa.
33:07That's where the return is getting worse.
33:10There are a lot of people who are worried about whether or not they can keep investing.
33:18Mr. Tamura, what do you think?
33:21Well, let me tell you about the results of the people who are investing in Shinnisa.
33:29In the case of Orkan, which has the most funds,
33:32In January of last year, when we started the low-budget investment,
33:37the blue line was the cumulative investment, and the red line was the assets.
33:42For a while, the assets were higher than the investment,
33:47but recently, in the case of Orkan, it's about the same.
33:53This is a case where we started the investment from the beginning of Shinnisa in January 2024.
34:00If you start with 30,000 yen a month,
34:04if you just do the cumulative amount, you get this blue line,
34:08but the assets have a return on that.
34:12If the red line is higher, it means that the operating performance is positive.
34:18Right now, it's just on the far right.
34:22If it's the same, it means that the people who did this are in the lead right now.
34:28That's right.
34:30One thing you have to keep in mind is that,
34:34from January of last year to now,
34:37the price of Orkan has risen by about 20% based on the yen.
34:42Even though it has risen by about 20%, the price is still fluctuating.
34:46It is often said that a man is a man when it comes to investment,
34:50but if the price went down in the early days,
34:54if the stock price went up, the profits would increase.
35:00On the other hand, if the price went up in the early days of the investment,
35:06the cost of buying would go up.
35:10Orkan has continued to rise, so the cost of buying has gone up.
35:15The price itself has gone up by 16%,
35:19but even though the price went up in the early days,
35:23the recent stock prices have gone down.
35:26So, if the decline of global stocks continues,
35:31it may temporarily become an evaluation zone.
35:35I think we have to be prepared for that.
35:40However, you provided us with more information
35:43about what to do if we think about it for a little longer.
35:46This is the data provided by Mr. Itamura.
35:49From January 1990 to March 2025,
35:53if you invested 30,000 yen per month in global stocks for 35 years,
35:57you calculated how much the current assets have increased.
36:01The total amount invested was 12.69 million yen,
36:05and the assets amounted to 87.31 million yen.
36:09There was a return of 6.88 times the amount invested.
36:15Let's look at another one.
36:18I think some people are wondering if they can continue investing
36:21even if the stock price falls.
36:24Just before the Lehman Shock in September 2008,
36:27if you start investing in global stocks,
36:30and continue investing even after the Lehman Shock,
36:33in four and a half years, the assets amounted to 2.27 million yen,
36:38which is about 40% more.
36:41Mr. Itamura, what can you say from these two graphs?
36:44It is often said that if you invest in the whole world for a long time,
36:48you will see an increase,
36:51but I think it is important to know the data, not just the words.
36:55So, in preparation for the future when your heart is broken,
36:59I want you to take a screenshot of this graph today.
37:03If you get tired, please take a look at this.
37:06In short, in the early days of stock investment,
37:09the stock price continued to fluctuate,
37:13but in the long term, the stock price continues to fluctuate.
37:16In the next graph,
37:19even if the Lehman Shock happens once every 100 years,
37:22the stock price returned to its original position in four and a half years.
37:26So, it doesn't mean that the stock price will continue to fall.
37:30And even if the stock price returns to its original position,
37:34the stock price is about 40% higher than the stock price when it returns to its original position.
37:40Mr. Tamura, this is very interesting.
37:43Certainly, the stock price at the beginning and the stock price at the moment are almost the same, right?
37:49Yes.
37:50Despite this, what should we think about the fact that the stock price is increasing so much?
37:55This is because we are buying at the same price at a fixed price,
37:59so if the stock price goes down at the beginning,
38:02the cost of buying at a cheap price will go down,
38:05so if the stock price itself returns, the profit will increase significantly.
38:09So, when the stock price goes down, you buy a lot at the same price, right?
38:13That's right.
38:14So, even if the stock price goes down at the beginning at the same price,
38:18do you mean that you buy a lot of things at a low price?
38:22Yes.
38:23So, if the risk continues to be high, like the two people mentioned earlier,
38:28I'd rather keep buying at a low price.
38:32I see.
38:33Mr. Hiroki, what do you think of Mr. Tamura's explanation so far?
38:36No, that's exactly right.
38:38The point is to buy at a low price,
38:42but humans are weak, aren't they?
38:44Yes.
38:45So, when the stock price goes down, we become weak,
38:49and it's not the first topic of the day,
38:51but we decide whether to quit or withdraw, right?
38:54So, the system decides whether to keep buying at a low price or keep buying at a high price.
38:59Then, even if you don't say anything,
39:01when the stock price goes down, you buy a lot, right?
39:05On the other hand, when the stock price goes up,
39:07it's a low price, so you can't buy a lot of stocks.
39:11So, automatically, the reversal works,
39:13and as a result, I think it's a good performance.
39:17So, you don't want to buy everything at once,
39:20and you don't want to look at it too much.
39:23Well, that's right.
39:24That's what it's all about.
39:26I see.
39:27Mr. Kobayashi, what do you think?
39:28Yes.
39:29It's almost the same opinion,
39:31but I think it's more important to think of it as another emotion
39:35rather than switching to another emotion.
39:37Another emotion.
39:38Yes.
39:39Of course, for several years of living expenses,
39:42I've been doing it with another emotion and cash.
39:45But I'm going to build up the surplus funds in the future,
39:50so I don't care about the investment anymore.
39:55I'm going to leave it alone.
39:57I think it's better to have a mental stability in the future.
40:01In addition, I asked Mr. Tamura
40:03what he should do with a little more investment,
40:07and he provided us with this kind of material.
40:11This is a little difficult, but on the left side,
40:15it's a one-time investment,
40:17so it's not a pile-up,
40:19but it's a pretty good amount of money from the beginning.
40:22For example, S&P or Orkan is fine,
40:26so it's a one-time investment.
40:30What will happen to red in 10 years?
40:35And what will happen to blue in 20 years?
40:38And it's a little difficult,
40:40but when it comes to the axis,
40:42the more to the right, the higher the ratio.
40:46This is PER,
40:48so how many times is the stock price added to the profit per share?
40:54In other words, the more to the right, the higher the ratio,
40:57and the more to the left,
40:59the easier it is to buy what is judged to be the ratio.
41:04Can you expand on the one-time investment again?
41:07When it comes to one-time investment,
41:09if you think about buying a high-yield product 10 years later,
41:15this is a vertical axis,
41:17and there are cases where it is negative,
41:19so if you go with this,
41:21if you think about buying a high-yield product 10 years later,
41:28there are cases where it is negative.
41:35Other than that, it's mostly positive.
41:38That's the kind of graph you're thinking about, right?
41:40Yes, it's mostly like that,
41:42but rather than buying a high-yield product,
41:44it's buying it at a high-yield time.
41:46It's buying it at a high-yield time.
41:48How do you do this?
41:50From 1985,
41:53from January of 1985,
41:55if it's red, it's 10 years,
41:57and if it's blue, it's 10 years,
41:59and so on for a month at a time,
42:01and you plot a period of 400 to 500 years.
42:06Fidelity's Mr. Shigemi does a lot of strategy,
42:12and I did a little bit of calculating,
42:14but if you look at this,
42:16if you buy it at a high-yield time,
42:1810 years later,
42:20the return is usually bad.
42:22Now, S&P has gone down a lot,
42:24but even if it's gone down a lot,
42:26the P.E.R. is a little over 20 times.
42:28Historically, this is still quite high.
42:30Even at Nisa,
42:32middle-aged people,
42:34if they have money on hand,
42:36for example,
42:38there are people who buy at the beginning of the year
42:40with a growth investment,
42:42and if you think about it,
42:44even though S&P has gone down,
42:46if you buy it,
42:48even after 10 years,
42:50there is a possibility that
42:52it will be around minus,
42:54so it's a pretty good idea.
42:56On the other hand,
42:58if you do it in such a long-term position
43:00that you don't break down for 20 years,
43:02it's almost parallel,
43:04so you can get a return.
43:06That's right.
43:08Even if it's 20 years,
43:10the higher the P.E.R. is,
43:12the lower the return,
43:14but if it's a fairly long-term position,
43:16even if you buy it when it's still
43:18relatively high,
43:20if it's a long-term position,
43:22you can get a good return,
43:24so I think you should think about
43:26how long your operating period is
43:28and make a decision.
43:30For example, in the late 50s or 60s,
43:32when it comes to pension life,
43:34if you want to break down a little
43:36from now on,
43:38in the case of those people,
43:40it's a little risky
43:42to focus too much on
43:44something with a high P.E.R.
43:46That's right.
43:48Rather than focusing
43:50only on US stocks
43:52with high P.E.R.,
43:54for example,
43:56Japanese REITs
43:58in the Wariyasu Nara Prefecture,
44:00or Japanese used stocks,
44:02in other words,
44:04they are divided into
44:06a few stocks,
44:08or in the overall assets,
44:10for example,
44:12if it's about half the tax,
44:14that is,
44:16the US stock market
44:18may be a few years
44:20and may be
44:22down by
44:2450% or so.
44:26I think it's important
44:28to keep it in mind
44:30and to divide it.
44:32Let's look at the right side
44:34and see if we don't have to worry
44:36about it.
44:38At any time,
44:40if it's 20 years later,
44:42it's a plus.
44:44It's not a minus.
44:46Let's take a look at the
44:48current P.E.R.
44:50of SP,
44:52ORCAN,
44:54and so on.
44:56This is the data
44:58provided by Mr. Hidoku.
45:00The main issue is
45:02the P.E.R.,
45:04which is the benchmark
45:06to determine the price
45:08for 10 years,
45:10is between 15 and 20 times.
45:12If you look at this,
45:14you can see that the P.E.R.
45:16of Magnificent 7,
45:18a high-tech stock that has
45:20been leading the market,
45:22is prominent and
45:24profitable.
45:26When it comes to
45:28topics and Japanese stocks,
45:30the center is the World Cup,
45:32so it's ORCAN.
45:34In that case,
45:36historically,
45:38the P.E.R. is at a high level.
45:40Looking at this,
45:42as Mr. Tamura said,
45:44it's a bit of a risk
45:46to focus on SP and
45:48ORCAN 10 years later.
45:50Mr. Hiroki,
45:52when you think about it
45:54in a balanced way,
45:56Japanese stocks are also
45:58a bit of a risk.
46:00So, in your opinion,
46:02is it a good idea
46:04to focus on one of them?
46:06Of course.
46:08As Mr. Tamura said,
46:10it's a matter of course
46:12to invest,
46:14but it's not profitable
46:16even if you buy it
46:18at a discounted price.
46:20In that sense,
46:22Japanese stocks are
46:24not at a discounted price
46:26so I think it's better
46:28to keep a good distribution.
46:30In that sense,
46:32Mr. Hiroki,
46:34I think it's better
46:36to look at the high and low.
46:38In a sense,
46:40the high and low
46:42are very easy to understand
46:44and you can see
46:46the return line,
46:48so I think
46:50it will be a very good
46:52investment target.
46:54The high and low
46:56are very easy to understand
46:58and you can see
47:00the return line,
47:02so I think
47:04it will be a very good
47:06investment target.
47:08investment target.
47:10Yes.
47:12Yes.
47:14Yes.
47:16Yes.
47:18Yes.
47:20Yes.
47:22Yes.
47:52Yes.
47:54Yes.
47:56Yes.
47:58Yes.
48:00Yes.
48:02Yes.
48:04Yes.
48:06Yes.
48:08Yes.
48:10Yes.
48:12Yes.
48:14Yes.
48:16Yes.
48:18Yes.
48:20Yes.
48:38Yes.
48:40Yes.
48:42Yes.
48:44Yes.
48:46Yes.
48:48Yes.
48:50Yes.
48:52Yes.
48:54Yes.
48:56Yes.
48:58Yes.
49:00Yes.
49:02Yes.
49:04Yes.
49:06Yes.
49:08Yes.
49:10Yes.
49:12Yes.
49:14Yes.
49:16Thank you for joining us, Mr. Hiroki, Mr. Kobayashi, and Mr. Tamura.