On today's podcast:
1) Part of the equity optimism comes on signs the US will avert a government shutdown. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer opted not to block the Republican bill, avoiding a government shutdown.
2) The US quietly tightens sanctions on Russia as it seeks a ceasefire deal. The Trump administration let a license covering payments for energy to a handful of Russian banks expire, making it difficult for foreign oil refineries, traders, and buyers of Russian gas to pay Russia in dollars or other Western currencies.
3) President Trump's trade war continues to impact global markets. Companies worldwide are planning for the worst as President Trump's tariffs create uncertainty, with some setting up "tariff task forces" to mitigate the impact on sales, profits, and market shares.
See omnystudio.com/listener (https://omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.
Bloomberg Daybreak delivers today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Get informed from Bloomberg's 2,700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries.
Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts
Listen to more of Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0Pfj-MCX1dSTXnEBCGHl3Yo
#Bloomberg #Podcast #News
Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts
Follow Bloomberg Podcasts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/podcasts
Visit our other YouTube channels:
Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets
Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg
Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake
For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video
1) Part of the equity optimism comes on signs the US will avert a government shutdown. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer opted not to block the Republican bill, avoiding a government shutdown.
2) The US quietly tightens sanctions on Russia as it seeks a ceasefire deal. The Trump administration let a license covering payments for energy to a handful of Russian banks expire, making it difficult for foreign oil refineries, traders, and buyers of Russian gas to pay Russia in dollars or other Western currencies.
3) President Trump's trade war continues to impact global markets. Companies worldwide are planning for the worst as President Trump's tariffs create uncertainty, with some setting up "tariff task forces" to mitigate the impact on sales, profits, and market shares.
See omnystudio.com/listener (https://omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.
Bloomberg Daybreak delivers today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Get informed from Bloomberg's 2,700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries.
Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts
Listen to more of Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0Pfj-MCX1dSTXnEBCGHl3Yo
#Bloomberg #Podcast #News
Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts
Follow Bloomberg Podcasts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/podcasts
Visit our other YouTube channels:
Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets
Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg
Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake
For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Good morning, I'm Stephen Carroll.
00:11And I'm Karen Moscow.
00:12Here are the stories we're following today.
00:15Karen, the rise in futures comes in part on signs the U.S. will avoid a government shutdown.
00:20That's because Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has opted not to block a Republican
00:24spending bill.
00:25The decision was made despite a growing number of Democrats wanting to use their limited
00:30leverage to restrain Elon Musk's cost-cutting efforts.
00:33Addressing the Senate, Schumer explained why he decided to walk back the threat of a shutdown.
00:38A shutdown would give Donald Trump and Elon Musk carte blanche to destroy vital government
00:45services at a significantly faster rate than they can right now.
00:52Republicans likely need seven other Democrats to join Schumer, who wouldn't say if there
00:56were now enough votes within his party to overcome a filibuster.
01:00Well, Stephen, the lift in the markets this morning comes after the S&P 500 slipped into
01:05correction territory.
01:07The index is down 10 percent from its all-time high.
01:10The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is also in a correction, and the Dow Jones Industrial
01:14Average is 9.3 percent below its last record in December.
01:20Lauren Goodwin, the chief market strategist at New York Life, says tariff worries are
01:24rattling Wall Street.
01:25But there is no doubt that the volatility that we've seen in the market over the last
01:30couple of weeks is about policy uncertainty.
01:33It's not about economic fundamentals.
01:36And what's so interesting about that is typically when we see drawdowns of this size, it's the
01:41other way around.
01:42There's a concern implicit in the economy about growth or employment, et cetera.
01:46This time, it's uncertainty causing the concerns about growth and employment.
01:51New York Life's Lauren Goodwin believes markets will remain volatile until some of the policy
01:56uncertainty clears.
01:59Investors are the most bullish on treasuries relative to stocks for at least three years.
02:03That's the findings of the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
02:06U.S. bonds are expected to deliver a better volatility-adjusted return over the next month
02:11than equities, according to a survey of more than 500 market participants conducted this
02:16week.
02:17And it's not even close, with 77 percent backing treasuries.
02:21That's the highest level ever in the survey data going back to 2022.
02:25Well, Stephen, former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin advised investors not to overreact
02:30to the current sell-off in equities and discounts risks of a U.S. recession.
02:35In an interview with Bloomberg, Mnuchin attributes the market correction to a natural correction
02:39in the market fueled by massive tech spending.
02:43We came in with the market being fully priced.
02:45So I think a 5 to 10 percent correction on the S&P or the NASDAQ actually makes sense.
02:52The market's been really fueled by massive amounts of tech spending, particularly around
02:56AI.
02:57So some of this is a natural correction in the market, and some of this is the market
03:01worrying about tariffs and the impact on tariffs.
03:05Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also discounted risks of a U.S. recession.
03:10To hear the full conversation, get the Bloomberg Talks podcast or watch it live on the Bloomberg
03:15podcast page on YouTube.
03:17Karen, as for the global trade war, President Trump is threatening a 200 percent tariff
03:22on European wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages.
03:26Trump says he'll impose the tariffs if the European Union does not immediately remove
03:30its countermeasures against his 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum.
03:34In an interview heard right here on Bloomberg Radio, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says
03:39the EU duties are disrespectful.
03:41The president has made it crystal clear that he finds this tit for tat really abusive and
03:50aggravating.
03:51Right?
03:52His objective is steel and aluminum tariffs.
03:55Let him build his steel and aluminum business in America because that's important.
04:01Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added he's thankful the UK and Mexico refrained from
04:05engaging in tit for tat tariff hikes and warned trading partners that upset President
04:11Donald Trump opened themselves to severe reaction.
04:14Well, Stephen, the president of the European Central Bank is warning of severe global fallout
04:19from a trade war with the U.S.
04:21Here's what Christine Lagarde told the BBC.
04:23If we were to go to a real trade war where trade would be dampened significantly, that
04:31would have severe consequences.
04:33It would not be cause for concern.
04:34It would be severe consequences for growth around the world and for prices around the
04:39world, but particularly in the United States.
04:42But also in Europe.
04:43It would push Europe into recession, wouldn't it?
04:45You know what it's doing at the moment?
04:47Stirring European energy.
04:49It's a big wake up call for Europe.
04:51Maybe this is a European moment yet again.
04:55And Lagarde also told the BBC that Brussels had no choice but to retaliate against the
05:00U.S. following its decision to implement 25 percent tariffs on global steel and aluminum
05:05imports.
05:06Well, Karen, if investors think the Fed will step in if tariffs damage the economy, they
05:11may be wrong.
05:12That's according to former New York Fed President William Dudley.
05:15I think the problem is that the tariffs are bad for growth and bad for inflation, which
05:20puts the Fed in a bind.
05:22Basically, they're missing by more on both sides of their mandate.
05:26So I think in the near term, the Fed's going to basically be on hold, waiting for more
05:30information.
05:31Well, Dudley, now a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says the Fed could be in a bind if tariffs
05:35lead to slower growth and higher inflation expectations.
05:39Read more in his latest column at Bloomberg.com slash opinion or O.P.I.N.
05:43Go on the Bloomberg terminal.
05:45Well, now, Stephen, we have the latest on the war in Ukraine.
05:47Russian President Vladimir Putin says he wants to discuss a proposed ceasefire in Ukraine
05:52with President Trump.
05:54However, Putin said any truce should lead to a long term resolution of the war.
05:59Trump says he hopes that Russia agrees to the ceasefire deal.
06:02We're talking about humanity.
06:03We're not talking about the money.
06:05But then you add the money to it and, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars is being
06:09spent and really wasted.
06:11So unnecessarily, it should have never happened.
06:13Meanwhile, the U.S. has tightened sanctions on Russia by restricting payments for energy,
06:18even as it pursues peace negotiations with Putin.
06:25Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world.
06:29For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.
06:31Michael, good morning.
06:32Good morning, Karen.
06:33An American Airlines passenger jet diverted to Denver after reporting engine vibrations
06:38last evening.
06:39The plane landed safely, but while taxiing to the gate, an engine caught fire.
06:45Passengers were evacuated using the aircraft's slides, including this woman.
06:48It was just a bunch of panicky people around me.
06:52The gentleman right next to me was a fireman, so he was trying to calm everybody down.
06:57The FAA says an investigation is underway.
07:00Columbia University says it has expelled or suspended some students who took over a campus
07:05building during pro-Palestinian protests last spring and temporarily revoked the diplomas
07:12of some students who have since graduated.
07:15The university said in a campus-wide email that its judicial board brought a range of
07:20sanctions against dozens of students who occupied Hamilton Hall based on its evaluation
07:27of the severity of behaviors.
07:29Meanwhile, New York City police arrested almost 100 protesters after demonstrators from a
07:34Jewish group filled the lobby of Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan.
07:39They are protesting the ICE arrest of Columbia grad student Mahmoud Khalil.
07:43He organized a pro-Palestinian demonstration against Israel at Columbia last year.
07:49The demonstrators, from Jewish Voice for Peace, wore red shirts reading, Jews Say Stop
07:54Arming Israel, NYPD Chief John Schell.
07:57In two hours, the NYPD, with our Secret Service partners and Trump security, had this situation
08:05cleared up with no issues.
08:09Audio courtesy of News 4.
08:12There were tense exchanges when Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards returned to his
08:16North Carolina district for a town hall with constituents.
08:20Many present say they are not happy with Republicans and President Trump, with how they are running
08:25the country.
08:26We've got a lot to be proud of in this country.
08:31I happen to agree with a lot of the things that's going on in Washington, D.C. right
08:34now.
08:35I know many of you are not.
08:40Congressman Edwards faced questions from people, including possible cuts to Social Security,
08:45federal layoffs, and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.
08:49Global News 24 hours a day, and whenever you want it, with Bloomberg News Now, I'm Michael
08:53Barr and this is Bloomberg, Karen.
08:54All right, Michael Barr, thank you.
08:57It is time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Tri-State Audi.
09:05Here's John Stashower.
09:07Good Friday morning, John.
09:08Good morning, Karen.
09:09St. John's Madness on display at several conference tournaments at the ACC, Louisville, avoided
09:15an upset by scoring at the buzzer to beat Stanford by two at the SEC.
09:19Kentucky scored with a half second on the clock for a one point win over Oklahoma.
09:23That came after Texas's double overtime upset of Texas A&M.
09:27There was double overtime at the Big East.
09:29Creighton trailed most of the night at one point by 17, but got by DePaul.
09:32St. John's began the day, easy win over Butler, 78-57.
09:37St. John's will go to the head store and bring their 28-4 record, 19-0 at home, to
09:41a semifinal game tonight at the Garden against Marquette.
09:44Six days ago in Milwaukee, the Johnnies won on a basket at the buzzer of overtime.
09:49Speaking of OT, that's where the Rangers were in Minnesota.
09:52Jack Jones moves up with it, drops it back, Panarin picks it up, Panarin leaves it for
10:02Miller.
10:03Back to Panarin.
10:04In deep.
10:05Drops it back.
10:06Schneider.
10:07Makes a move.
10:08Back to enter.
10:09He scores!
10:10On MSG, Braden Schneider wins it 3-2 after earlier goals by Vincent Trocek and Johnny
10:15Brzezinski.
10:16And the Rangers end their four game losing streak.
10:18They also got good news when Columbus lost.
10:20The Rangers in blue jackets tied for the last playoff spot in the East.
10:24The Rangers have played one more game.
10:25Devils beat Edmonton 3-2.
10:27Bruins lost in Ottawa 6-3.
10:28The Nets lost in Chicago 1-16 to 1-10.
10:31Three-way tie for the lead after the opening round of the Players' Championship.
10:34Americans Lucas Glover and JJ Spahn both shot 6-0, so did Camilo Villegas.
10:39Rory McIlroy shot 4-0, Scotty Sheffler's minus 3.
10:41The Tampa Bay Rays, who have long sought a new stadium, finally had plans to build one
10:46for $1.3 billion, but then came Hurricane Milton.
10:48It damaged the current home, Tropicana Field.
10:50It's the reason Rays owner Stu Sternberg says they couldn't come up with a $700 million
10:55payment that was due.
10:56The Rays have now scrapped plans for the new stadium.
10:59I'm Stash Adler, Bloomberg Sports, Karen and Stephen.
11:04Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg.com
11:11and the Bloomberg Business App.
11:13This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
11:175-12 on Wall Street, those futures pointing higher as Senate Democrats have pulled back
11:21on their threat of a government shutdown.
11:23Chuck Schumer ultimately choosing not to block the Republican-written stopgap funding bill.
11:28Let's discuss now with Terry Haynes, founder of Pangea Policy.
11:31Terry, great to talk to you.
11:33Do you see the risk of a shutdown completely gone now?
11:35Stephen, good morning.
11:37And no, not completely.
11:39I'll usually give you 5% for lightning striking.
11:42And there's always a possibility that enough Democrats vote here to block temporarily.
11:51But Schumer's abdication on this is a very positive sign.
11:57And kudos to him, by the way.
11:59If you've got a bad hand, the best thing to do is fold.
12:01And he certainly did.
12:03But look, is there a question of leverage being lost here?
12:06That was part of the reasoning that some Democrats did want to get involved in blocking this.
12:11Is there something the Democrats have lost in making this call?
12:14You know, a lot of the Democratic interest groups will say that they've lost things.
12:20But I'm not so sure about that.
12:22You know, you can't win and revive your party without a strong message and without unity.
12:29And right now the Democrats don't have either.
12:31So much smarter political play for the Democratic leader to live to fight another day here, I think.
12:40Does this project the image of unity that Chuck Schumer wanted, though,
12:43if there's going to be those on the sidelines who are going to complain about this decision?
12:48No, well, it doesn't really project a unity message at all.
12:53It projects quite the opposite, that they're split on it.
12:57You have just kind of the thin end of the wedge here is Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania,
13:02who already was going to vote with the Republicans on this.
13:07And there's easily half a caucus who thought that it was better to continue to be on the side of keeping the government open,
13:17even with results that they didn't particularly like.
13:20So this news giving futures a bit of optimism ahead of today's trading session.
13:24But, of course, the trade tensions still playing in the background as well.
13:28What's your view on the question of escalation from here?
13:32It seems to be all going in one direction.
13:35In what sense?
13:36Well, that we're talking about Trump threatening 200 percent tariffs on European wine and champagne.
13:43Are we going to see further fight back from the EU on this?
13:46Well, I think you're going to see continued tit for tat.
13:48Sure. There's two kinds of tariffs here.
13:50One is what I will think of as the geopolitical tariffs.
13:54Canada and Mexico negotiations underway for better border security and drugs and that sort of thing.
14:00The other is the tit for tat reciprocals that are probably coming in April.
14:06But, you know, the ultimate goal here, and I know markets aren't convinced by this, but the ultimate goal here,
14:12both Besant and Lutnick talked about this yesterday, are frankly to have tariffs go away.
14:18The idea is to remove tariff barriers.
14:20And, you know, of course, that benefits the United States probably more than it benefits other countries.
14:25But that's where the administration is going, and that's what they seek to do.
14:29Are there winners being created from this as well?
14:32I mean, Kaya Kalas, the EU's top diplomat, telling Bloomberg that China's laughing at these escalations of tensions between the US and the EU.
14:40I'm always interested, but, you know, and I have great respect for Ms. Kalas.
14:45And at the same time, I know very well that she's looking right into the teeth of the bear, so to speak, in Estonia.
14:55And at the same time, I think there probably needs to be more of an acknowledgement from the European Union about the geopolitical strategy that's implicit in the economic strategy.
15:07The big reason why Trump is going after this with such alacrity really is that he's trying to turbocharge the United States economy, frankly,
15:15to build geopolitically the strongest economy and, frankly, fill holes in the United States' ability to defend itself, manufacturing and other things.
15:27This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
15:33Look for us on your podcast feed at 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
15:41You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121.
15:54Plus, listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces.
16:00Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
16:08And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less.
16:14Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day.
16:19I'm Stephen Carroll.
16:20And I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.
16:38.