Rencana kenaikan tarif royalti minerba dinilai jadi sentimen saham terkait tambang dilanda aksi jual. Pasalnya, pemerintah berencana menaikkan tarif royalti dari produksi setidaknya enam komoditas tambang, seperti batu bara, nikel, hingga emas.
Adapun untuk besaran kenaikan tarif royalti ini belum ditentukan. Namun seiring sentimen ini, pasar modal kembali melemah dipimpin sektor barang baku yang turun 3% di perdagangan Selasa.
Adapun untuk besaran kenaikan tarif royalti ini belum ditentukan. Namun seiring sentimen ini, pasar modal kembali melemah dipimpin sektor barang baku yang turun 3% di perdagangan Selasa.
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TVTranscript
00:00And we summarized the information on the capital market, we highlight it in the next Spotlight market.
00:12There is IASG, which closed down 0.79% to 6,500, as well as Gold Band Sachs, which also surpassed the stock market of the Republic of Indonesia.
00:21Then, steel, the leader of the market, was traded yesterday, down 3% when planned to increase Royalty Minerva.
00:27Technology, the only sector that strengthened 4% and has strengthened in recent times with a significant increase, between 4% and even 5%.
00:38Then we look at the economic agenda, from the United States there is the Consumer Price Index,
00:43the weekly raw oil stock, then the statement of the BOC branch from Canada,
00:48Governor-General of the ECB, Lagarde from Europe, then the unemployment rate from South Korea, and retail sales from Indonesia.
00:56Next, to the METEN agenda, there is the General Meeting of Stockholders from the BCA, which may also be awaited by many investors,
01:03because it will also be announced, related to the dividend in the meeting of the General Meeting of Stockholders, which is held today.
01:12Then there is the MING, there is also RUPS, Bank Mandiri, General Meeting of Stockholders, and IATA, the end of the HMTD trade.
01:21Let's update the stock market.
01:26Nikkei, The Times, Cospi, Hang Seng, based on the data we have, all investors are moving in the negative territory following the global stock market.
01:33What is the future of the Minerba Royalty?
01:38Yes, what is the future of the Minerba Royalty? The plan to increase the Minerba Royalty will affect the capital market,
01:44and we have seen yesterday that several sectors related to mining and steel are moving in the negative territory,
01:50such as INKO, then there is also MDKA and several other companies that we have shown in the previous information.
01:57And to discuss it related to the video conference, there is Mr. Eza Ridho Ibnu Tama, Chief Economist and Head of Indonesia's Indosecurities,
02:03or who is now the Head of Research, Mr. Eza.
02:08Yes, thank you.
02:11Mr. Eza, how do you see the Royalty sentiment from the government towards Minerba?
02:18This will affect the capital market, at least for now, although the size has not yet been determined by the government.
02:25Is it still a plan?
02:28Yes, it is still a plan, but we have seen that there is a plan for DHE, the government's export revenue deficit,
02:37so the government is currently looking for ways to increase their revenue.
02:44We already know that they have plans for land, and they are also in the process of efficiency right now.
02:52So, if we look at the primary market for the obligation of state debt,
03:02now it is a bit quiet in the financial institutions.
03:08So, we have to see this as one way to increase the government's income for this year.
03:21After 2024, it is much lower than their goal or target,
03:28and it seems that in January and February, the tax income target was also below the government's expectations.
03:38Now, the Royalty sentiment in the market for Minerba is very negative,
03:51because this is one of the things that many mining companies are very worried about.
03:59If we look at the example, it is not a hard commodity, but a soft commodity, which is tobacco.
04:09Tobacco is taxed, and every year, not consecutively, but gradually increases, now at around 12%.
04:18Now, will this happen to our hard commodities?
04:22To coal, to nickel, to those energy commodities that are needed for our GDP to increase?
04:31And is this one of the things that makes our primary sector decline?
04:42Just like what has happened in the tobacco sector in the past decade.
04:51Okay, if we look at the screen, there are several lines, such as AMMN, INKO, MDKA, BUMI, and MBMA.
04:59Yesterday, Kompang experienced a weakness led by INKO and also MDKA,
05:04although there are some that are still recording increases.
05:10Now, what is the strategy in the middle of this Royalty increase plan for SAMSAM?
05:19For now, the plan is to wait and see.
05:27If the government wants to continue with the plan to implement this new tariff Royalty,
05:36this will be a negative sentiment and the price will continue to fall.
05:45This is also in the middle of the US wanting to negotiate peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
05:56So the price of coal is also falling for this year.
06:00Secondly, it turns out that the EU does not really need nickel.
06:06As important as last year, many analysts thought that nickel would be needed,
06:14and it would be our primary currency again.
06:16It turns out that this is not the case either.
06:20And we wasted a lot of energy for downstreaming nickel,
06:25which is actually not too significant in our GDP recently.
06:36Also, in comparison, if we export nickel directly to developing countries.
06:48Is SAMSAM based on nickel still worthy of respect,
06:51especially since the government has just held a limited meeting with a number of ministers
06:56related to hillarization, one of which must be related to nickel.
07:00Although the government has been conveying the issue of nickel for a long time,
07:05starting from President Jokowi's era, and now it will be continued by Prabowo.
07:09How about the continuation of this nickel,
07:12what are the prospects for those who already have SAMSAM related?
07:15For example, INKO or maybe ANTAM?
07:20We also have to look at the sentiment.
07:23ANTAM is more focused on its sales for gold.
07:29It's not too focused on new nickel yet.
07:35But if we look at INKO, other nickel companies such as NCKL,
07:41they are focused on downstreaming.
07:43The majority of nickel that is currently IPO,
07:49their focus is on downstreaming as well.
07:51And they want to export high-quality nickel.
07:59But is the demand as high as last year?
08:08EV, as I mentioned earlier, doesn't need nickel.
08:13Tesla doesn't need nickel for their EV.
08:17And it looks like they can adapt to other commodities.
08:24We also have to see that the potential of nickel is now limited.
08:31Nickel is needed for downstreaming.
08:38In AI, it looks like copper and gold are the most needed, not nickel.
08:45So it looks like the prospects for nickel are already limited.
08:48The prospects for nickel are already limited.
08:50What is your recommendation for INKO, which fell by 7% yesterday,
08:54and then you mentioned about NCKL.
08:57For INKO, my recommendation is to hold.
09:02And NCKL, just hold for now.
09:05Because it looks like there is no positive sentiment,
09:11but there is also no negative sentiment according to us.
09:16No positive, no negative, just neutral for now.
09:19Not interesting for now.
09:20If you just want to enter, if you already have it, you should wait and see.
09:23Correct.