Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00China's Xi Jinping says his country is ready for trade, tariff or any kind of war until
00:06the very end.
00:07It's a remark that takes on a more menacing tone when you read that China's defence spending
00:11has been increased to over 7% or some $200 billion.
00:16This follows not just the trade tariff slapped on Chinese businesses by Donald Trump but
00:20also remarks about war made by the US defence secretary Pete Hegseth.
00:25China of course is close to North Korea.
00:27North Korea is sending arms and soldiers to fight for Russia in Ukraine.
00:30And China of course is at loggerheads with the US over the future of Taiwan.
00:36Tensions between China and the United States keep brewing.
00:40On Thursday, Beijing vowed to fight Donald Trump's trade war to the end, warning that
00:46his aggressive tariff policy will only backfire.
00:52These tariff threats are a typical example of unilateralism.
00:56They hurt others without benefiting the US itself.
01:00Following the announcement of the tariff policy, the three major stock market indexes in the
01:04US slumped immediately.
01:06What I'd like to stress here in particular is that there are no winners in a trade war
01:10and protectionism leads nowhere.
01:14This week, Donald Trump doubled tariffs on most Chinese imports to 20%, putting in danger
01:20the country's new growth objective of around 5%.
01:24China retaliated, slapping an additional 15% tariffs on some US products.
01:30And as diplomatic relations between the two global powers deteriorate, Beijing has repeatedly
01:35warned that it is ready for any kind of war with the United States.
01:41China has a clear and consistent position.
01:44Whatever kind of war it is, a tariff war, a trade war, a cold war or a hot war, it should
01:49not be fought and cannot be won.
01:52According to experts, 2025 will be marked by two main challenges for China, shielding
01:58its economy from the looming trade war and protecting its relationship with Russia, another
02:03important trade partner that Donald Trump is trying to warm up to.
02:09That relationship with Russia, of course, is one that has had a lot of scrutiny since
02:14the war being stepped up in Ukraine.
02:16That's bringing Robert Manning, fellow of the Global Foresight Hub and China Program
02:21at the Stimson Center.
02:23Robert, thanks for being with us here on France 24.
02:25We appreciate your time.
02:27First of all, let's deal with this issue about armed conflict between US and China.
02:32Am I overreading that?
02:34I hope I am.
02:36I think it's no longer unthinkable.
02:42I don't see, I think, you know, nobody wins a nuclear war.
02:46I think that was the Reagan-Gorbachev formulation.
02:51President Xi and Donald Trump, I think, endorsed that.
02:57But I think there's a very large uncertainty to the China policy that has yet to take shape
03:04under Donald Trump.
03:07And you have different goals among different senior advisors.
03:13You have the hawks at the fence, National Security Council, State Department, that want
03:18to weaken China.
03:22And you have Donald Trump, who's interested in making a grand bargain, a deal with China.
03:27And I think the Chinese are very prepared for all eventualities.
03:32You see it in the menu of tariffs, export controls, banning, blacklisting American firms
03:43and so on.
03:44And I think if the 20 percent tariffs now altogether are going to bite, and I think
03:51they're going to hit, for example, American farmers who have big export markets in China.
03:56They're going after American tech firms in China.
03:59So I think we're building tension that we'll have to, I think Trump wants to have a meeting
04:05with Xi and try to see if there's a deal possible.
04:10So this is all, it sounds like this is very much Trump using all this as a bargaining
04:14chip to get into the room with Xi and make the kind of deal he wants.
04:17And of course, as you just pointed out, there will be actual people on the ground in the
04:21U.S. who will suffer.
04:25No question.
04:26Prices are going up already.
04:30We're starting to see inflation tip up.
04:32The dollar is weakening when Trump wants it strong for exports.
04:38And so there's a lot of incoherence.
04:40You just saw it yesterday.
04:42Tariffs on, tariffs off, tariff on again in regard to Canada and Mexico.
04:47I think there's a lot of a spectacle of uncertainty and gamesmanship going on here because, for
04:59example, Trump met with the major auto companies who explained to them because of the deep
05:04integration of the North American auto market, these 25 percent tariffs would blow up the
05:10American auto industry.
05:11So suddenly he backs off of it.
05:14And I think there are similar potential clash points like that regard to China.
05:20Critical minerals, which are AI and other digital technology depends on, is an area
05:29that China has close to a monopoly in some areas.
05:33So there's going to be this game.
05:37One can imagine a deal.
05:39I think the way I like to look at it is to compare it to the situation we had with Japan
05:44in the 1980s.
05:45It ended up in the Plaza Accord, a big grand bargain that had to do with currency, the
05:53Japanese building factories here.
05:55Now, Donald Trump has said, for example, it's fine with him if the Chinese want to build
06:01battery and EV factories here as long as they hire American workers.
06:05That could be part of a package.
06:06The Chinese are, I think, presenting it as such.
06:10But then there are China hawks who feel it's a national security threat.
06:16So I don't know how that plays out.
06:17I think that's a battle that has not yet been fought within the administration.
06:21There is this lack of coherence, which is alarming.
06:24And given the first question, your first answer regarding the possibility of armed conflict,
06:29it does raise one's fears about that.
06:32Can I ask you about Taiwan?
06:34Because under Joe Biden, Joe Biden said that he would actually be willing to go into conflict
06:39if Taiwan was attacked.
06:41Donald Trump, I suspect, wouldn't make the same kind of pledge.
06:44However, if it meant that he could get hold of semiconductors and get some kind of monopoly
06:49from that, maybe he might.
06:52Do you think that that could be another issue that could be at play?
06:57That's a tricky issue, because again, a lot of hawks see Taiwan as a critical node for
07:03our American role in the Pacific.
07:05But Donald Trump seems to see Taiwan more as a bargaining chip.
07:09And then you have major TSMC chip investments already.
07:15They just committed to $100 billion more.
07:18So it wouldn't be shocking if Donald Trump says, well, gee, I've got all these chip investments
07:23from them anyway.
07:24What do I need Taiwan for?
07:25Why should I put Americans at risk?
07:27You just don't.
07:28That's, again, this contradictory incoherence of the different trends.
07:34And it's really anybody who tells you they know how it's going to play out is lying.
07:40Indeed.
07:41And it was Barack Obama back in the day who made that twist of U.S. foreign policy towards
07:46Asia-Pacific, saying that was the new area where they need to increase their influence.
07:51Yes.
07:52I mean, clearly, Trump would would do that if he saw something in it for him.
07:55I don't mean that for him personally, but maybe it might be for him personally.
07:58I mean, who knows where this goes?
08:00But clearly, you mentioned it, the transactional elements of Trump's approach could lead to
08:06these things happening.
08:07Yes.
08:08And also, don't forget, the overnight shift regarding Ukraine and the new rapprochement
08:16with Russia is really aimed at China.
08:19They have what I think is a delusional idea that they can do what's called a reverse Kissinger
08:24and somehow separate Russia from China.
08:28I think that's a fanciful thought, and that it may be if they made enough concessions
08:34to Putin, they might be able to create a sort of business-like normal relationship.
08:39But Putin, Putin's grievances about American power are not going to go away.
08:44And I think, you know, he has a vested interest in a lot of what's going on with China.
08:50So I don't see any kind of split.
08:52But that's the logic that's of many people in the Trump administration.
08:57And I think that's one reason I think Xi, with a kind of relatively vulnerable economy,
09:05may be interested in some deal that might might yield some concessions.
09:09But it's very hard to see what that deal would look like and how it would play out.
09:14It's hard to imagine a wedge being driven between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
09:20Like I say, I think it might give the Russians a little bit more wiggle room and less dependence
09:25on China.
09:26But they're not going to.
09:27It's not going to be like the U.S.-China opening in the 70s.
09:31I don't see that as a possibility.
09:33Indeed.
09:34I mean, obviously, the recalibration that's going on in U.S. politics and U.S. foreign
09:39policy regarding who are the allies and who aren't is something that is alarming everybody
09:45across the board from Ukraine and just basically just move outwards from there.
09:49The fact we saw the U.N. just the other week, the U.S. voting along with Iran on an issue,
09:55that was unthinkable.
09:56We're in a real situation here where everything is changing completely, isn't it?
10:00And the tariffs that have been put on China, as you say, and then the reciprocal nature
10:04of that is clearly going to blow things up for a while.
10:07Do you think it will calm down at some point?
10:10Do you think that will be to the detriment?
10:11Well, it's going to be to the detriment of normal people because they always suffer first
10:14and longest.
10:15Do you think it will hurt Trump?
10:19I think it will hurt Trump over time as the consequences of his policies play out.
10:26But you have to understand, this is not a normal administration.
10:29This is a revolutionary effort to deconstruct the entire post-Cold War order.
10:35I think it's not a crazy analogy to think of it as an American version of a Mao's cultural
10:41revolution in the way he's dismantling the American state apparatus and the alliances
10:48and international organizations that have been the crux of American power since World
10:54War II.
10:56So I think we're in an interregnum where the old system is being buried and there's no
11:02real indication of what follows other than a kind of Hobbesian sphere of interest, war
11:08of all against all type of system.
11:10I hear what you're saying.
11:11Of course, it is worth noting that many, many millions suffered during that cultural revolution
11:16change put on China by Chairman Mao.
11:20Thank you very much indeed, Robert Manning from the Global Foresight Hub and China Program
11:24at the Stimson Center for sharing your analysis with us.
11:27It is a delicate scenario and your insight, I think, helped give certainly me a few glimmers
11:33of light to look forward and we sort of will wait to see what happens, of course, and I'm
11:36sure our viewers would thank you as well for your insight too.
11:39Robert Manning, thank you from the Stimson Center.