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00:00This is Apropos. Donald Trump and his threats to slap punishing tariffs on his northern
00:07neighbour dominated a televised leadership debate this week as part of the race to become
00:12Canada's next Prime Minister. The contenders to succeed Justin Trudeau clamoured to present
00:18themselves as the best choice to take on the US President. Let's hear first from front-runner
00:24former Central Bank Governor Mark Carney.
00:28Let me start by being clear. We will never, ever be part of the United States in any way,
00:35shape or form. We have to recognise that the Donald Trump of today is different than the
00:40Donald Trump of several years ago. Then his objective was to take more of our market.
00:47Now he wants to take our country.
00:50Trump represents the biggest threat our country has seen since the Second World War. I have
00:57recognised that from the outset. I've built my campaign on a plan to answer that threat.
01:05I do think, though, it is a big mistake for Canadians to think that because we can't change
01:11Trump we can't negotiate with him. Of course we can't change him, but we can outwit him.
01:20He did a deal with Putin for critical minerals in Ukraine. Who else has critical minerals?
01:27Canada. And so we need to understand what the US is trying to do here, but we also need
01:33to make sure that we are standing up for our sovereignty and for our economy.
01:38The Liberals are due to announce their new leader on the 9th of March. Mark Carney saying
01:42he might call an immediate election if he wins. In any case, a vote must be held by
01:47the 20th of October. For more, let's cross live now to our correspondent Emily Ragubir.
01:53Emily, we heard candidates talking about the US President there. Just how much of a shadow
01:58is Donald Trump casting over this campaign?
02:02Sharon, it is the common denominator for this Liberal leadership race, absolutely. I mean,
02:10the game has completely changed. This is a new ballgame for Canadian politics and for
02:14this Liberal leadership race. And, you know, it's really been a tumultuous past month since
02:20the US President Donald Trump came into power for a second term, and it has changed the
02:26entire Canadian political landscape on its head.
02:29Now, for international viewers, if we take it back just late last year when the Canadian
02:34Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down from position, or announced his resignation
02:39to step down as Prime Minister, the Liberals as a party was not very much in good standing
02:46here. And now, since this whole tumultuous situation has since taken shape with the US
02:51President, it has really become a lifeline for the Liberals, for the Liberal Party overall.
02:58And so we just heard there from all four candidates, Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank
03:02of Canada and former governor of the Bank of England, he is running and positioning
03:06himself as an outsider to this. In fact, saying that he wasn't part of this governing
03:12Liberal Party for, for example, the past 10 years as they've been in power, and is coming
03:17to this as an outsider. He is by trade an economist, and he is saying that he is best
03:21positioned to deal with these tariff threats.
03:24Chrystia Freeland, former Deputy Prime Minister and former Finance Minister, she is positioning
03:29herself as a negotiator who has taken on Donald Trump in his first term in office,
03:36renegotiating the USMCA, otherwise known as the new NAFTA. And that was back in 2018.
03:43But as Mark Carney, who was one of the front runners and pretty much leading this race
03:48as it stands today, he did say that just right, just right there, said this is not the same
03:54president we are dealing with four years ago. This, he is not after markets, he is
04:00after the country. And the other two, the other two of the four candidates, Corina Gold,
04:05she is the former House leader of the Liberal Party. She is really speaking to younger voters
04:10and speaking to Canadians here who are troubled with the economy, troubled with the cost of
04:15living and housing.
04:17And finally, Frank Baylis, he is a former MP, also a businessman. And he, much like
04:22the other candidates, say that we, Canada really needs to shore up their partnership
04:27with other allies around the world and start looking to diversifying how Canada does business
04:33with other allies and also within this, their own country here in Canada.
04:38Emily, we'll have to leave it there for now. That's our correspondent, Emily Ragobert.
04:42To discuss further, we're joined now by Guillaume Lavoie, Associate Member of the Raoul Dandouran
04:48Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of Quebec in Montreal. Thanks
04:54so much for being with us on the programme this evening. Rather, we heard Emily talking
05:00a little bit there about the candidates who are in the running. We saw them debating on
05:04TV this week. What is the verdict? Who do you think is best placed to face off against
05:09Donald Trump?
05:10Well, good to be with you. It is phenomenal, I think perhaps unique in Canadian history
05:18that the fundamental question of a campaign could have changed so much in so little time.
05:25It used to be, the ballot question used to be, who can replace Justin Trudeau and the
05:31fastest place? And now it's who can face Donald Trump? And therefore, that ambiance is favouring
05:39the Liberals, giving them a second life for sure, because it's the traditional party of
05:44government in Canadian history. And Mark Carney is playing up his CV. Every indicator
05:51so far seemed to favour Mark Carney to take the helm of the Liberal Party and become Prime
05:57Minister immediately as he wins the leadership race. But even now, the Conservative Party
06:05is changing its tune, changing its slogan, for example, which is now Canada First, which
06:12is both as a reaction to Donald Trump, but yet aping Donald Trump's slogan too. So this
06:21is a completely changed conversation about the next election.
06:26Yeah, the Conservative leaders have been praised by Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Parallels being
06:31drawn between him and Donald Trump, their style of leadership. Is this a help or a hindrance
06:36though to a campaign taking place in Canada if there is a snap election to be called?
06:42In either case, there will be an election before the end of the year.
06:45There are no real parallels between Trump and Mr. Poitier, the Conservative leader in
06:51Canada, as there are very few parallels between any democratic politician and Donald Trump.
06:58But there are some echoes, for example, some sort of a taste of anti-elite going after
07:06the central bank, saying he will never send his ministers to Davos. And now what we see
07:11is the Conservative leader and the Conservative Party are pivoting very quickly away from
07:17anything that could be exploited as such, because this would be the first, second, and
07:22third lines of attack by the Liberals. So we're really, the Conservatives are probably
07:29hoping that we go back to, and that might happen in a few weeks, to a conversation on
07:34cost of living, inflation, releasing energy projects, which was the real conversation
07:41before. One hope perhaps for the Conservatives is that there is a certain accoutrements or
07:50normalization of dealing with Donald Trump. And what is perceived today as a very acute
07:56crisis might become everyday news a month from now. And therefore, we'll see what might
08:02happen. But as we were walking into a huge Conservative majority, now my prediction would
08:09probably be that it's still a Conservative government, but with a much smaller majority.
08:15And yet a Liberal win is not out of the realm of possibilities.
08:19Well, whoever does win, Guillaume, apart from Donald Trump and the various threats that
08:24he's currently posing to Canada, what other challenges lie ahead? You've got a weak economy
08:29and there's also a housing crisis currently.
08:31Well, perhaps Donald Trump has, well, Canada has to be perhaps thankful to Donald Trump
08:38on one thing. It was his arrival, his style, his insults have been a bit of a wake-up call
08:44to Canada, whose participation to NATO is defenceless. Right now, no credible politician
08:52will campaign without promising to significantly increase defence budget for the Canadian government,
09:02to cleaning up public finances, who are in an abysmal state with huge deficits of the
09:08Trudeau era, and also to strengthen other partnerships beside the U.S., to diversify
09:14trade with the EU, for example, as top of the list, and to assert more greatly the Canadian
09:21presence on the Great North. So those would be, right now, not a Conservative or Liberal
09:27issue. It's become a common trend where if you want to win any votes in the next election,
09:35you have to position yourself.
09:37And what about the prospect, a very real prospect, of tariff hikes for Canada? All the potential
09:43leaders there agree they pose a threat, but what exactly is to be done?
09:48Well, it is a grave threat to Canada. Let's resume Canada very quickly. Half of our national
09:55wealth comes from exports, and three quarters of that goes to the U.S. So it's a major,
10:01major threat. But Canada is not without bargaining power. We are an energy superpower. We're
10:07the U.S. number one client. We're the U.S. number one supplier for energy and other significantly
10:14strategic supply, for example, potash, which is linked to the ability of the U.S. to develop
10:21its agriculture. Aluminium, for which Quebec and Canada is by far the most important supplier.
10:28And energy, for sure, from oil to gas, to uranium, to electricity. So it will hurt the
10:35Americans a lot, and it will hurt Canada, too. But there is the speech of Donald Trump,
10:42that Canada's best allies in this fight are Americans, American businesses, clients, governors.
10:5138 of the 50 U.S. states have Canada as their number one trading partner. So right now,
10:59it's not Canada that's going to convince Donald Trump. It is Canada's allies, mainly American
11:04partners, who will pressure the White House. And the fact that Donald Trump has been speaking
11:09so much lately about his desire for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state, has that been
11:15playing much of a role in the campaign? Well, it's certainly galvanized some sort of
11:22a pride to be Canadian. We saw it in hockey. You see many more flags now. There is no – let
11:29me be very clear – there is no basis in reality for Canada to become a U.S. state.
11:35That does not exist. It is not shared. It doesn't matter which province you are. And
11:42if anything, it probably helped the Liberals. It probably helped national unity in Canada.
11:48So Donald Trump here, perhaps by becoming this adversary, has brought Canadians closer
11:54than in many years before. Unity through disunity, perhaps. Guillaume,
11:59thank you so much for being with us on the program this evening. We do appreciate your
12:02time. That's Guillaume Lavoie, Associate Member at the Raoul d'Anderon Chair in Strategic
12:08and Diplomatic Studies at the University of Quebec.