Harga emas melesat ke rekor tertinggi, Senin mencapai kisaran USD2.950-an, rekor tertinggi kesebelas sepanjang 2025.
Penguatan logam kuning, masih didorong permintaan aset safe haven, di tengah kekhawatiran rencana tarif Presiden AS Donald Trump. Dukungan tambahan juga datang dari arus masuk menuju ETF emas terbesar di dunia.
Rencana tarif Trump, dinilai dapat picu inflasi dan perang dagang, sehingga meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset safe haven seperti emas batangan.
Penguatan logam kuning, masih didorong permintaan aset safe haven, di tengah kekhawatiran rencana tarif Presiden AS Donald Trump. Dukungan tambahan juga datang dari arus masuk menuju ETF emas terbesar di dunia.
Rencana tarif Trump, dinilai dapat picu inflasi dan perang dagang, sehingga meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset safe haven seperti emas batangan.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us. Before we continue, let's take a look at some interesting graphs.
00:14Let's take a look at the information from the market spotlight.
00:17HSG, which is 2.4% unblocked, is at level 6,587 when Morgan Stanley broke the Indonesian stock market.
00:27Then there is also foreign net sales, which reached 1.63 trillion rupiah in one day,
00:32bought by BRI and also Mandiri.
00:34Then there is the DCI stock, which was suspended after four auto rejects in one direction.
00:40And next we will look at the economic agenda from Japan.
00:43There is data about IHK Inti Bank of Japan year-on-year.
00:48Then from Singapore, there is data about Singapore's industrial production year-on-year in January.
00:53And also from Thailand, the decision to increase the inflation rate in Thailand.
00:56Then there is the weekly raw oil stock from the United States.
01:01Then there is also data about the inventory of raw oil, the sale of new houses,
01:05which was suspended in January.
01:07And the meeting agenda that we can pay attention to is the CNKO held by RUPS.
01:14And next we will look at the opening of this morning's main stock exchange.
01:21As you can see on the television screen, the opening of this morning's main stock exchange is MIX with Nikkei.
01:29Unblocked 1.29%, at level 37,744.
01:33Singapore's STI is unblocked 0.38%, at level 3,900.
01:37KOSPI Korea and also Hang Seng Hong Kong are unblocked 0.21% and 0.86% each.
01:52For this morning's discussion, we have contacted Mr. Arya Santoso, President Director of CSA Institute.
01:58Good morning, Mr. Arya.
01:59Good morning, Mr. Suki.
02:01Thank you for joining us, Mr. Arya.
02:03In the marketplace, when we talk about the movement of gold prices,
02:07it was 11 times and then it broke the highest record.
02:11But yesterday it was hit by a profit taking before we talk about the implications
02:17for gold producers.
02:20Actually, fundamentally, what can be derived from this weakness?
02:25And how does this reflect or maybe is an implication of various new policies
02:32or just recently implemented by US President Donald Trump?
02:37We see gold as a choice in uncertain conditions.
02:42So when uncertainty occurs, gold becomes the most secure instrument.
02:49Although that's just the perception of market players.
02:52There are periods when gold prices in the US dollar did not go up.
02:58But we see that lately, when there is an uptrend, gold is a choice.
03:04Even now, the uptrend is still there.
03:07Even from the recent drop in gold prices, we see that there has been an increase again.
03:14So it can be said that the uptrend is still there.
03:17Even though yesterday there was a fast decline,
03:21but it looks like there may be an increase again.
03:25And for the weakness, if there is a correction, it is likely to continue until 2868.
03:31Although for the time being, it looks like there is a slight increase today.
03:36Okay.
03:37Is gold usually considered a safe haven or maybe an investment held by market players
03:44when there is a downturn?
03:46When gold experiences a weakness, it means it is released again.
03:52Does this actually reflect a condition that has started to cool down?
03:57Or what is it like?
03:59Or is it just technical, Mr. Arya?
04:02Actually, if you look at it from the point of view of market players in the US,
04:07there are a few things in Trump's policy that are considered to strengthen the US dollar.
04:16So the comparison between gold prices and the US dollar,
04:21gold seems to be weakening.
04:24So from the strengthening of the US dollar, gold is weakening for the time being.
04:27But from the price of gold itself, it is still an uptrend.
04:31Because the uncertainty is still quite high.
04:35Okay. In terms of projection, it will continue to strengthen,
04:38but this is just a temporary weakness.
04:41It is only used to make profit-taking because it is already overbought.
04:45Okay. If we look at the significance of the price weakness of gold to gold producers,
04:51or the noble logo, what does it look like, Mr. Arya?
04:58Yes, we see that actually from the point of view of revenue,
05:01it will be directly affected if there is a weakness in the commodity price.
05:07But we will usually see a medium-to-long term.
05:11If the commodity price weakens in the medium-to-long term,
05:16it will directly affect the revenue.
05:18But besides that, usually the stock prices of these noble logo producers
05:26are not as low as they used to be.
05:28Usually when there were quite a lot of increases yesterday,
05:32not all of the prices went up.
05:34Because there are other factors such as company efficiency and various other factors.
05:40Okay. It means that there are various factors
05:44that cause a correction from SAMSAM, a gold producer.
05:48If you look at the correction that happened for SAMSAM,
05:53what is the recommendation?
05:57What is interesting and what can be used,
05:59related to this weakness?
06:01Can it be used because this correction can be used
06:04to enter SAMSAM at a cheaper price?
06:08Yes, if we pay attention, it is also back to the company.
06:12We also need to see, besides the sentiment from the commodity price,
06:16the profitability.
06:17Are the companies and the gold producers
06:21quite good in managing the company?
06:24So we also need to check the financial reports,
06:27how is the profitability.
06:29So not all SAMSAM gold producers can be bought
06:33when the price of gold is increasing.
06:35Fundamentally, SAMSAM or MITEN gold producers
06:39are interesting for us to discuss
06:41because they work quite well.
06:44What about you, Mr. Arya?
06:46The ones that are quite good, if I look at it,
06:49like ANTAM is still quite good.
06:52Then UNTR also entered the gold production,
06:56which is also quite good.
06:58Then there are those related to selling gold products too,
07:03like HRTA is also quite good.
07:06What needs to be monitored, such as low earnings,
07:09such as PSAB, BRMS,
07:12are quite good, but we want to see
07:15a more moderate earnings growth.
07:19Then for the negative earnings,
07:21such as MDKA, ARCI,
07:24it also needs to be monitored.
07:26It is very likely that we cannot get a good sentiment
07:31from the internal side,
07:33such as SQMI is still down.
07:36For low earnings and negative earnings,
07:39can it be used in the short term
07:42if there is a movement that can be used?
07:45Mr. Arya?
07:47Usually, large investors will pay close attention
07:52to how the company shows good performance.
07:56So it can be said that for the negative earnings,
08:00or for example, from a relatively low multiplier earnings,
08:05it really needs to be further investigated.
08:08Is there any improvement from the management?
08:11So for the short term,
08:13when there is an up-and-down movement, it can be used,
08:16but for investment,
08:18I suggest that the internal management is more adequate.
08:22Okay, so the fundamental is good,
08:24then it is interesting to be included,
08:27whether it is for the term long-term investment,
08:30or maybe in the short term it can also be used,
08:34even if it is interesting in terms of volatility.
08:37So for the short term, everything is okay.
08:40Okay.
08:41Mr. Arya, if we look at a few moments ago,
08:46Morgan Stanley ranked Indonesia's stock price
08:48in the MSCI index,
08:50from equal weight to underweight.
08:53How do you see this as a sentiment
08:58that gives a psychological impact
09:00on the market movement yesterday,
09:02or yesterday's ESG,
09:04which did record a weakness of 2.4%,
09:06and maybe this will also be a sentiment
09:09that will be implicative until the end of this week,
09:15or maybe you only see this for a moment,
09:18because there are other supporting factors
09:20that may support the performance of ESG today.
09:24Yes, this is a pretty exciting story,
09:26so how a level can arise,
09:30like we are given a level from equal weight to underweight,
09:35usually for this underweight,
09:37it will reduce the position that they hold
09:41in Indonesian companies,
09:43and that will of course be a selling pressure.
09:46The background is
09:48how from what happened,
09:52not only in Indonesia,
09:53but actually in other countries
09:56will also be quite affected,
09:58how the Trump policy that has been launched
10:03is not a matter of what policy is taken,
10:06but more to the volatility,
10:09because the uncertainty,
10:11if we go back to the initial topic,
10:13the uncertainty is because things change.
10:18So when, for example,
10:21you give a strategy that will be implemented,
10:25it can be canceled,
10:26or for example, what has never been announced before
10:30suddenly a new movement emerges,
10:33so it looks like there is a situation to look at first.
10:37We see that Trump has unpopular policies,
10:41such as supporting oil, coal, gas again,
10:46which used to be more towards ESG in the previous government,
10:52now it seems that it no longer supports that direction.
10:56While Indonesia can actually be benefited
10:59when there is a volume that can be more than the first.
11:05What is interesting, Mr. Arya, in the MSCI report,
11:07this step was taken in line with the weakening of the prospects of domestic economic growth
11:11as well as pressure on the profitability of companies in this cyclical sector.
11:15We will try to break it as soon as possible.
11:18In short, Mr. Arya and Mr. Trump, we will be back soon.
11:23Thank you for joining us.
11:25We will watch the opening of ESG.
11:28As you can see on the television screen,
11:32for the opening of IHSG.
11:35And so far, Samsung has entered the top line of Gainers,
11:40including Wi-Fi, PTRO, Telkom, Film, Baritone Renewable Energy,
11:47PSAB, AMRT, INDF, IMAS, IOTF,
11:53and also the main technology Indonesia, TBK.
12:14We are still talking with Mr. Arya Santoso,
12:16President Director of CSA Institute,
12:18related to the decrease in the level of stock investment in Indonesia
12:22which was then lowered by MSCI or Morgan Stanley.
12:28Mr. Arya, if we look at it, one of the reasons is
12:31because it is related to domestic economic growth
12:34as well as pressure on the profitability of companies in the cyclical sector.
12:37What is actually the projection of domestic economic growth in Indonesia?
12:41Is there anything that needs to be discussed, Mr. Arya?
12:44Yes, we do see there are weaknesses.
12:46While we see that the earnings in the ME10, ME10
12:50are also many that there is no growth in 2024.
12:54But it can be said that it is more influenced by the outflow,
12:59because there are other countries that are considered more attractive.
13:01So, when arranging portfolios from various countries,
13:05for example, will they focus on the emerging market
13:07or will it be moved to other developing countries?
13:11They will see where the growth is more profitable.
13:16While in Asia, China is considered to have better economic growth
13:20than last year which was recorded historically.
13:23Therefore, it is considered that China is better as an investment choice,
13:28so that Indonesia is reduced in weight.
13:32Okay.
13:33Profitability in the cyclical sector is also under pressure,
13:36as significant as that, right, Mr. Arya?
13:39So, in the cyclical sector, it follows the strength of the country's macroeconomy.
13:46So, if we see that the economy is improving,
13:49then in this sector it will also improve.
13:53While if the macroeconomy is not improving, it will usually be weak.
13:56Okay.
13:57Let's go to the options that you recommended this morning, Mr. Arya,
14:00and then we can also see on the official screen
14:04for the options recommended,
14:06which are ANTAM, Sido, MAPI, and also IPCC.
14:11All of them are recommended.
14:13With the level of support and resistance, you can see on the screen.
14:17You can then screen capture first for the analysis options.
14:21We go to ANTAM.
14:22It was discussed earlier, is there anything you want to add, Mr. Arya, for ANTAM?
14:28For the time being, I see that one of the options for gold producers
14:33from the mining side, we see that ANTAM is quite good.
14:37The energy is also quite good,
14:39so that the choice of investment can be made as an alternative.
14:44We also see that there are other producers who are quite good,
14:48but ANTAM is the one that can be held for a long time.
14:52Okay.
14:53After ANTAM, we have Sido.
14:55What is it like?
14:56What is interesting about Sido itself, Mr. Arya?
14:58Sido, in the short term, there is a strength in the minor movement,
15:02in the meantime, we see that in real time,
15:05there is a return to strength today.
15:08This is interesting to take advantage of the movement,
15:11as the government program is also more focused on health,
15:17so this will be benefited from the government plan to focus on the health sector as well.
15:24Okay.
15:25Sido is also usually a stock that is favored a lot,
15:30especially when it comes to the money moment,
15:33because maybe there are products that are consumed a lot
15:36when people travel long distances.
15:39Yes, there is a risk plus profit too.
15:42Okay.
15:43From Sido, we go to MAPI.
15:44What is it like, Mr. Arya?
15:46Yes, for consumer goods in retail,
15:50there is usually an increase,
15:52it can double the omset,
15:54maybe even triple it.
15:56Then when there is a double pay,
15:58people usually prefer to spend.
16:01Therefore, it is very possible that some emittents related to retail and consumer products
16:08can get an increase in omset or revenue.
16:12So it can be prepared, it can buy on weakness too,
16:15later if there is a weakness, it can be done in support areas,
16:18it can be done by buying accumulation,
16:20there is a possibility that next month there will be a gain.
16:26The last level is still cheap, right?
16:28If you can enter when there is a weakness,
16:33it is more recommended for MAPI, right?
16:35Because there is a projection in the month of Ramadan,
16:37also towards the festive season,
16:38want to enter the holiday season,
16:39there is usually a movement.
16:40Okay, from MAPI, we go to IPCC, Mr. Arya.
16:43IPCC, we also see that at the moment,
16:47there is a movement,
16:49we saw yesterday there was a fairly strong movement,
16:53quite large, and the volume is also quite large.
16:55We see that the cooperation is also good,
16:57here there is an interesting pattern in IPCC,
17:01it can be made one of the investment options too,
17:05where from the trading side,
17:07the output of goods will be quite active this year too.
17:13Okay, and that was some of the items recommended by Mr. Arya this morning,
17:17there is Antam, Sido, and also MAPI and IPCC,
17:20with level support and also resistance,
17:22we have presented earlier,
17:24and the analysis has also been delivered for the selected items this time from Mr. Arya.
17:27And we will again watch the movement of IHSG,
17:32we pass through the data from RTI.
17:38Yes, if we look at the projection for the movement of IHSG itself,
17:41what is it like, Mr. Arya, in today's trade?
17:45Yes, IHSG, there is consolidation,
17:48for the time being, in the range of 6,500 to 6,800 movements,
17:52we see that IHSG has support areas,
17:57if we look at the average for the last 5 years,
18:02it is around 6,547,
18:04so there is a possibility of retesting to that area,
18:08although for the time being there is an increase or decrease,
18:11so in the range of that number,
18:13a retest will also be carried out,
18:15whether the support area is strong enough.
18:17So the consolidation is at 6,500 to 6,800.
18:20Yesterday it was 2.4%,
18:22so far IHSG is moving well,
18:24so far it is at the level of 6,649.937,
18:28moving well 0.95% or 62.8 points.
18:33Okay, Mr. Arya, thank you for joining us this morning on MarketBuzz,
18:37hopefully what you have said can be a reference for the market today,
18:41but then the decision to reinvest back into investors
18:46who watch this MarketBuzz program,
18:49success always for you, Mr. Arya,
18:51I always see you.