As Donald Trump calls Ukraine’s President Zelensky a “dictator” and the US enters peace negotiations with Putin’s Russia, former MI6 boss Sir Alex Younger and former Financial Times Moscow Correspondent Catherine Belton discuss how the White House is paving the way for a “new era” of international relations.
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00:00Sir Alex Younger, are we seeing the ripping up of a decades-long American policy that
00:08was always Russia can't be trusted?
00:11I think we are in a new era where, by and large, international relations aren't going
00:17to be determined by rules and multilateral institutions. They're going to be determined
00:23by strongmen and deals. I think of the Yalta Treaty at the end of 1945, where three strongmen
00:29as they were then, on behalf of the big countries, the strong countries, decided the fate of
00:36small countries. I think that's Donald Trump's mindset. It's certainly Putin's mindset. It's
00:41Xi Jinping's mindset. It's not Europe's mindset. That's the world we're going into for a whole
00:46set of reasons, and I don't think we're going back to the one we had before.
00:50Why do you say that?
00:52Because the one we had before was based on the unipolar moment, where America had both
00:57the means and the will to assert itself across the world. It created what we call globalisation,
01:04the international security structure. It's now a significantly smaller player relative
01:11to others than it was. And of course, its will to be that person has diminished. So
01:20it still remains a prodigious country. You underestimate America at your peril, but it's
01:27ability to make rules across the world, that's not there now.
01:32Catherine, after today's rhetoric, what will President Putin be thinking?
01:37I think Putin is cheering. He's very happy at what he's heard, even before Trump spoke
01:43today, even before the meeting yesterday in Riyadh, which brought Russia out of its isolation
01:49from the West ever since the war began. Already you had tycoons close to Putin in Moscow hailing
01:57the dawn of this new era, whereby they believe that precisely this, that this is the era
02:04of strongmen, the return of great powers, who get to divvy up the world between themselves
02:11over the heads of smaller countries like Ukraine and over the heads of Europe. And already
02:17I was speaking to one tycoon close to Putin who is sanctioned by the US, who is basically
02:23saying, well, Trump has now laid claim to Greenland, to Panama, the Panama Canal. He's
02:30laid claim to Canada, to Gaza. If he wants us to recognise his claims in the Western
02:38hemisphere, the US's right to rule the Western half of the world, then they must recognise
02:44our sphere of strategic interest in Ukraine and also in Central Asia.
02:49How do you respond to that, Sir Alex?
02:51Yes, I mean, I think we are seeing deals. We're seeing a conversation about spheres of influence. And I think the only people who haven't
03:00woken up to this reality is us.
03:03Europe.
03:04Yeah. And there's an entry ticket to this conversation, it appears. And sadly, it's not our soft power
03:09or our values, it's hard power. And it leaves the category challenge for us in Europe. How
03:15do we develop that to get ourselves a seat in this conversation?
03:21Donald Trump has, as we know, attacked President Zelensky today. He hasn't condemned Russia's
03:27invasion. He didn't ask them to stop their attacks on Ukrainians before that meeting
03:32in Riyadh yesterday. I mean, President Putin must be absolutely in dreamland.
03:38Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, there's another, there's a French businessman I speak
03:43to who's based in Moscow, also working with tycoons very close to the Kremlin. And they're
03:49saying, everyone loves Trump here, even the FSB. We all raised a toast when he became
03:55president. And I think it's almost sort of beyond their dreams, too, about how quickly
04:00the rhetoric has changed. I mean, we saw only a few weeks ago, Trump was still trying to
04:05act tough in relation to Russia, saying that its economy was weakened, which is certainly
04:11true. They've got sky-high inflation, interest rates are spiralling. The economy is definitely
04:18slowing down, and probably they can only continue to perpetuate the level of military
04:23production for another year before things start going pear-shaped. And, you know, Trump
04:30had a strong hand, and he was apparently showing he was ready to leverage that, saying there'll
04:35be more sanctions, we don't get the deal that we want. But now, literally in the space of
04:41a few weeks, whether he's responded to Putin's flattery of him. Just a few weeks ago, Putin
04:48had said that Trump should have won, had won the 2020 election, and he would still
04:54have been president, had not the Democrats stolen it from him. And whether that's, to
04:59some degree, worked in softening Trump up, or whether it's the offer of hundreds of billions
05:05of dollars in deals that they seem to be dangling in front of Trump and appealing to his sensibilities
05:12as a businessman and a real estate developer. I mean, Trump is in acquisition phase now.
05:18We've seen him laying claim to all these different countries, and I think, you know, he's certainly
05:23looking at Russia too. And Russia is able to manipulate him and flatter him very easily.
05:31Well, Donald Trump's attack on President Zelensky came after Ukraine's leader accused the US
05:38President of living in a disinformation space, and he specifically referred to Mr. Trump's
05:42false claim that Mr. Zelensky's approval rating among Ukrainians is only 4%.
05:51Since we are talking about 4%, we have seen this disinformation. We understand that it
05:56is coming from Russia. We understand and we have evidence that these numbers are being
06:01discussed between America and Russia. It is unfortunate that President Trump, and with
06:06great respect for him as the leader of the American people who constantly support us,
06:10unfortunately lives in this disinformation space.
06:16Why do you think, Sir Alex Younger, President Trump wanted to respond to that?
06:21I think it's unfortunate, and I agree with Catherine. This would be emboldening to Putin.
06:26I don't know whether Donald Trump actually buys the Russian line, but I think the Russians
06:31probably think he does, and I think that significantly diminishes his leverage. And I saw this happen
06:37in Afghanistan, where he gave away the biggest concession before we even started. It's a
06:41strange art of the deal, honestly. Look, Zelensky and Trump, they're in their way different
06:49politicians. Zelensky had no choice, I think, but to respond when he was accused of lacking
06:54democratic legitimacy. And Donald Trump is notoriously thin-skinned, and we've got into
07:00this spat. I do not think we should read too much into it. These negotiations are at a
07:05very early stage. They're going to be highly complicated. Exactly as I expected, Russia
07:10has gone maximal, to the point that they may even have overreached. It's going to be very,
07:15very hard for Trump to cut through this in a way that produces anything that isn't an
07:21abject humiliation.
07:23What do you mean, Russia have overreached? What do you mean?
07:26The issue is that Trump and Putin are talking about different things. So Trump thinks this
07:33is about territory, characteristically, as a real estate guy. It's about land, giving
07:38land to Russia in return for peace. It's not about territory, and Putin said it's about
07:44sovereignty. Putin was super clear when he started this war that the existence of Ukraine
07:49as a sovereign and free country was an unacceptable affront to Russian security. He will not stop
07:55until Ukraine isn't a country anymore. And that is a completely different conversation.
08:02By the way, there's more. There's Europe, NATO, putting constraints on its presence
08:06in Eastern Europe and going back to previous borders in 1997. This is well out of scope.
08:11I don't think it's stuff that Donald Trump has clearly thought about, but you're instantly
08:16into it. Russia came out today and said they wouldn't accept Western troops in Ukraine.
08:20Of course they said that. They are determined that Ukraine should be an undefended basket
08:25case, but we're talking about security guarantees as a necessary end game. It still feels, for
08:32all of this bluster, a fundamentally irreconcilable problem.
08:37How worried should people who are watching tonight be?
08:41Well I think that, as a European, it's a massive wake-up call. Whatever you think about this,
08:50all the smoke and dust and mirrors and complexity, and I don't know how it's going to end, I
08:53know one thing for certain, which is that Europe will own more of this at the end than
08:58it did at the beginning. Now I do not want to exaggerate. The Russian army has performed
09:03risibly. It's not going to march into Warsaw tomorrow. But nor should we obscure the fact
09:09that this will be hugely emboldening, and over time they will build up their capabilities.
09:15The reason we don't need to be that worried is we are ten times richer as European NATO
09:20than Russia. We absolutely have the capability to build up the necessary military forces
09:26to resist this. But if we don't do that, then yes, this is the stuff of nightmares.
09:32The visit of the British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, to Washington next week, I mean
09:38there's already a lot of attention and focus on that, but it becomes more acute I suppose
09:43now. I wonder what Sir Keir Starmer should be saying to Donald Trump tomorrow.
09:51Well, I think first of all we would have to hope that Europe has its act together before
09:59he goes there. There has to be a unified position, otherwise Trump isn't going to take anything.
10:03He says, seriously, we've already heard Ursula von der Leyen speak about the need to create
10:10a €700 billion defence fund. And if that finally gets off the ground, then yes, Starmer
10:17will be speaking from a position where he can be respected. If not, it's going to be
10:22just the usual chit-chat and might not mean anything.
10:26What do you think the British Prime Minister should be saying to Donald Trump?
10:29Two things. First of all, I absolutely agree with Catherine. We need to organise to effect
10:33and demonstrate that we're prepared to play a role, take control of our own environment,
10:39recognise that we've got to develop our power and that's got to happen quickly. Donald Trump
10:43is not wrong about everything. We were free-riding, there was free-riding in Europe and this needs
10:47to be sorted out. And the other thing is what I have just said. I think you need to explain
10:52to Donald Trump why giving away Ukraine as a country, giving away its sovereignty, would
10:58be a devastating mistake. Trump has already said that Putin should not be allowed to be
11:04seen to win. He seems to understand that as a concept, although I accept that his tone
11:09has changed. He was quite complicit in Afghanistan, even though he pinned it on Joe Biden. He
11:15gave away the farm before it even started and that led to the fiasco. He can't own a
11:20fiasco like that. And then think of the example this sets for Xi Jinping, sitting across Taiwan,
11:27straight from Taiwan. I mean, that goes straight into Xi Jinping's mind. So these are the things
11:35that I would be advising the Prime Minister to dwell on, although I'm sure he's got a
11:38lot of ideas of his own.
11:40You've mentioned Afghanistan a couple of times. People have reminded me that President Trump
11:45met the North Korea leader twice. There was no deal because President Trump then, in the
11:53first term, didn't get what he wanted and he walked away. So we have seen that side
11:58of him as well. Is that a possibility with President Putin?
12:03Yeah, and indeed, it's important for us to note that our approach to either Gaza or Ukraine,
12:11take your pick, wasn't working. So I don't intrinsically reject his instinct to disrupt
12:17this. Nor do I even think that having a conversation is a bad thing, if what you've just said is
12:23in his armoury.
12:24I mean, you are speaking in moderate terms, you're very measured. It sounds like you are
12:29completely stepping back from all this rhetoric of the last seven days. Do you have confidence
12:37that a fair and sustainable, to quote the words of Marco Rubio yesterday, settlement
12:45will be the outcome of this?
12:47No.
12:48No?
12:49No. I think it's wide open. So I think it can be. And actually, I think Trump has quite
12:57considerable leverage. As Catherine said, the reality is that the Russian economy is
13:03grossly out of shape and cannot be run like this for more than another year. And Putin
13:08has lost 800,000 killed or wounded, which even for an autocrat like him, has got to
13:14have an effect. And most important of all, I think that this is a huge psychological
13:20moment for Putin. He's been waiting for years for Trump to get in. And if Trump actually
13:27turns out not to be the opportunity the Russians expect, they don't have another plan. So there's
13:33quite a lot of leverage here. And I think if it can be firmly established in Donald
13:39Trump's mind that having a residual free Ukraine is his bargaining point, he can get that.
13:46And I think if that happens, we're going to be OK. It's a wake up call. We need to organise
13:50to effect. It is a huge tragedy for people who will be left behind the frozen front line.
13:56But we can deal with that. If it's do a deal at any cost, get out and give it to the Europeans,
14:03then I think that's a big problem.