Donald Trump's first month in his second term has seen unprecedented action and disruption. A slew of executive orders, statements, and remarks have kept the world on edge.
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00:00There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.
00:23That memorable quote attributed to Lenin is perhaps appropriate for the times we live
00:29in now.
00:30Donald Trump has completed a month in office in his second term.
00:35But Trump 2.0's first few weeks have seen unprecedented action and disruption.
00:41A slew of executive orders by the American president, official statements and off-the-cuff
00:47remarks have kept the United States and much of the world, including here in India, on
00:52the edge.
00:54What will Trump 2.0 do next is the biggest X-factor that's almost now become a daily
01:01debate.
01:03How should the world see Donald Trump's second coming?
01:07And what does it mean for the world order?
01:10These are some of the questions we will be exploring on a very special Global Roundtable
01:15here on India Today.
01:17I'm joined by special guests from across the world, in a true sense, a Global Roundtable.
01:24Jeremy Isha Sharof is former Vice DG in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from Israel.
01:30Appreciate your joining us.
01:31Richard Russo is Senior Advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
01:36He joins us from Washington, D.C.
01:39Professor Sari Hanafi is Director, American University, Beirut.
01:43Dinateen Akhlevidyani is Research Fellow at the, she's at the EU Foreign Policy Unit.
01:49She joins us there.
01:51Zakari Paikin, Deputy Director, will also be joining us later in the show.
01:55And Pinak Ranjan Chakravarti, former Secretary, MEA, is with us.
01:59And Andrew K.P.
02:01Leung, China Strategist, is joining us from Hong Kong.
02:04And as I said, we're traveling across the globe today on the Global Roundtable.
02:09The big question, is Donald Trump simply the biggest disruptor to hit the world in
02:14the last 75 years since World War II, some would say?
02:18I want to go to all our panelists, starting with you, Mr. Russo, there in America.
02:23Is he, in your view, simply the biggest disruptor, given what we've seen in the last few weeks?
02:29Yeah, I think that's fair to say.
02:31I've been in Washington for almost 30 years and never seen anything quite like this out
02:35of the gates.
02:37We look at some of the major changes that we've seen in our relationships, and some
02:40of that echoes things that we saw the last time that he was in office, the challenges
02:44to our neighbors, Canada and Mexico, concerns about immigration, but the quick snap that
02:50you've seen on Russia.
02:51But, you know, the bigger thing, I think, is the change that we've seen here in Washington
02:55on gutting federal agencies, a lot of the career diplomats and bureaucrats that we've
03:01seen that actually lead day to day a lot of our engagement with the world are gone, not
03:05just the political appointees, but a lot of career folks.
03:09So I think the things that you see in the flash in the news and the changes, the direction,
03:13the foreign policy is one thing, but we're losing the machinery here right now.
03:18And we don't know yet what the plan is to rebuild that and bring it back again.
03:22USAID, of course, but a lot of career folks at State Department.
03:26So a huge disruption, not seen anything like it, certainly not even in Trump's first term.
03:32Just to press you on that, are you therefore suggesting that what we're seeing is essentially
03:36a one man show?
03:38We of course hear the Elon Musk of the world on Twitter making their own comments about
03:41the world.
03:42But is this essentially now the complete personalization of foreign policy in the hands of Donald Trump?
03:48Well, I think they sat four years out of office and were planning for this day.
03:53They knew the entire time they had a reasonably good chance of coming back to office.
03:57So a lot of planning had been happening during that period.
04:00So they didn't come in carte blanche.
04:01And a lot of people have access to President Trump during that period.
04:05But you know, at the end of the day, you look back at his last administration and you think
04:08of the most important positions, your chief of staff, your national security adviser,
04:12the secretary of defense.
04:14They went through people at an amazing rate last time around.
04:16So those that we think have influence, maybe that's true for a few minutes.
04:20But last time he was in office, you saw a tremendous level of churn of a lot of cabinet
04:24and senior people inside the White House.
04:26So I do believe folks like Elon Musk, you see him every day, a lot of access, a lot
04:31of visibility, a lot of influence.
04:33But we'll see whether or not they remain, because last time it was it was a very short
04:36tenure for people that had that kind of access and influence with the president.
04:41Ambassador Binit Ranjan Chakraborty, your former secretary, ministry of external affairs
04:44from an Indian perspective.
04:46Have you seen anything quite like what we're seeing in the last few weeks?
04:50Every day throws up a new headline with Donald Trump throwing up numbers about reciprocal
04:58tariffs, then suggesting that there were amounts paid across the world to destabilize governments
05:05by U.S. aides.
05:07Have we seen anything like this?
05:09Have you seen in your long experience anyone quite like Donald Trump?
05:12Well, not really.
05:14And I think it's quite he's quite unique in his own way.
05:19Let's not let's not forget that his domestic disruption is far more overwhelming than what
05:26he's trying to do internationally.
05:29And I think our friend from the U.S. just also referred to that.
05:35Now, USAID, let me let me say that USAID has been functioning in India for a very long
05:40time.
05:41And we we do know what they fund and who they fund.
05:46That is not I mean, these are open funding arrangements.
05:50But behind the scenes, there are also, I would say, you know, the political agenda of the
05:56government that funds it.
05:58That's very natural because the man who pays the piper calls the tune.
06:03So that has always been the case in international politics.
06:07But I think what we are seeing today is certainly a throwback to, you know, the appeasement
06:14of the far right conservative, conservative sections of the U.S.
06:20But let me end by saying that that while Trump may try to do all these things, let us not
06:26forget there will be pushback.
06:28I know of many diplomats in the Trump 1.0 who resigned, they were my friends, they said.
06:36So when I asked them, why, why are you quitting?
06:38They said, look, we can't just work with this guy anymore.
06:41So I think there is a lot of domestic pushback going to happen.
06:45There are many things that Trump is over stretching and crossing the Rubicon in terms of, let's
06:52say, trade deals, etc., because he's trying to bypass the Congress.
06:57But I don't know how much the Congress will fight back.
07:00But certainly he's trying to appease the section which has brought him into power.
07:04But there is a very large section which are which are very, very apprehensive and angry
07:10about what he's doing.
07:11So even in the domestics, there will be and then, of course, the courts are.
07:16So you're saying there will be some, I'm going to stop you for a moment.
07:20You're saying you could see some kind of pushback.
07:22But let's focus on the moment now, because what we are seeing, Dr. Tinatin Akhilevadhyani,
07:29research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies, is Trump seems to want to
07:34completely remap the world order.
07:37The old world order, post-World War II, based essentially on rules, multilateral commitments
07:43being replaced by military and economic might, almost sort of even Europe, longstanding ally
07:49being pushed to the margins, Trump directly dealing with Russia when it comes to Ukraine.
07:55Are we seeing a complete disruption, particularly where you are in Europe at the moment?
08:00Indeed, this is, I think, a very good and correct description of what's going on now.
08:04I mean, obviously, Europe and the European Union, and it's like many countries, feel
08:09very much abandoned by Trump's change of mind.
08:12These are the talks that he's having in Saudi Arabia with Putin, not in Europe, because
08:17the war is currently raging in the European continent, not in Kiev, because this is the
08:21capital of the country which was actually invaded.
08:23And as you rightly pointed out, this is the violation of the international law and the
08:27rules based order.
08:29So there is quite high stakes, are quite high, and the EU is currently, you know, quite shocked
08:34with that.
08:35And we see all this contemplation on how to fill the gaps if Trump continues to throw
08:40Ukraine under the bus, and in fact, very much equal what Kremlin wants to see and wants
08:45to hear about that.
08:47You know, is it much the same mood at the moment in the Middle East, Jeremy?
08:53Isha Sharof, your former vice director general at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, former
08:58head multilateral affairs director at Israel, how does Israel see it?
09:02Benjamin Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to meet Donald Trump and hailed him
09:07for his initiatives in the Middle East.
09:11Is there a very different perspective there in the Middle East to what it is in Europe
09:15at the moment?
09:16Is Donald Trump someone whom Israel believes is the right man at the right place?
09:20Well, first of all, I would defer to my American and my European colleagues on what they've
09:25said about the impact of the Trump presidency on internal American affairs and on Europe.
09:32Regarding the Middle East, I think the situation is a little more complicated.
09:38As you know, we are in the middle of implementing the hostage deal, the first stage of the hostage
09:45deal, which has been a very traumatic experience for Israel, particularly yesterday after the
09:51receipt of four bodies, three of which only were classified as being Israelis.
10:00And it's been a very difficult time.
10:01But one of the things that Trump has said that he wants, and he's put pressure on implementing
10:07the hostage deal, which also means ending the war, and there's a great deal of support
10:12within Israel for that approach.
10:15The other idea he's come up with is turning Gaza into a Riviera, which, frankly, personally,
10:22I'm sure Mr. Netanyahu found a positivity in that idea.
10:27I find less.
10:28And I think it's very difficult to see how it could actually be implemented on the ground
10:33and if it's at all desirable.
10:35But one thing I would say is that his ideas have actually spurned the Arab countries to
10:40start thinking about alternative solutions.
10:43There have been discussions in Saudi Arabia, I think, today.
10:46There will be discussions in Egypt coming up with ideas, ultimately, which would emphasize
10:52the idea of implementing the two-state solution.
10:55So I think that if Mr. Trump wants to help the parties come to some sort of agreement,
11:00we should revisit the idea of a two-state solution.
11:04Now, the last thing I want to say, I think that cutting the USAID will have an impact
11:09on the Middle East, on the Palestinian territories, and also cutting aid to the Palestinian security
11:15forces also is a negative idea.
11:19So these are the things.
11:21It's a bit of a mixed bag, but it's still too early to judge.
11:25It's a bit of a mixed bag there, as far as the Middle East is concerned.
11:28Very different views coming in for Europe.
11:30Before I come to you, Professor Hanafi, let me just play what Donald Trump said on Gaza.
11:35It's one of those off-the-cuff remarks that he tends to make that immediately attract
11:39attention and controversy.
11:41That's the kind of person he is.
11:42Listen in to what he said, and then I'll get you to respond.
11:47The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it, too.
11:52We'll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and
11:57other weapons on the site, level the site, and get rid of the destroyed buildings.
12:03And I don't want to be cute.
12:05I don't want to be a wise guy, but the Riviera of the Middle East, this could be something
12:09that could be so bad.
12:10This could be so magnificent.
12:14Professor Sari Hanafi there in Beirut, here is Donald Trump talking about a French Riviera
12:20like Gaza.
12:21I mean, these are the kind of remarks that he's making, which is obviously sending various
12:26kinds of shockwaves in some parts of the world.
12:30Yeah, actually, we were able to talk to each other from India, from Israel, from the US,
12:42because we have a common language.
12:45This common language comes from international relations, from humanitarian and international
12:51laws.
12:52And Mr. Trump is absolutely violate all level of this universalistic language.
13:05What is going on on Gaza is a genocide according to major international human rights organizations.
13:15He is not talking about genocide.
13:17He is talking just to take the hostage.
13:20Actually, on Israel, it has 100,000 of Palestinian hostage.
13:28It's a colonial state in West Bank and Gaza.
13:33All this is.
13:34Are you saying the Arab world cannot trust Donald Trump?
13:37Are you telling me the Arab world cannot trust Donald Trump?
13:40I am worried.
13:41I am worried on the level of racism, of Islamophobia, of denying basic vocabulary of international
13:50law.
13:51According to the international law, Israel is an occupied forces in Palestinian territories.
13:57So he is not talking neither to one state solution nor to two state solutions.
14:02He think about as a businessman, who as a real estate developer is really in the Arab
14:08world.
14:09So you believe Donald Trump is going against, you believe the basic principles of humanity
14:31and the universal principles of human rights.
14:35Mr. Rousseau responded in America.
14:38America was seen as the champion of human rights, the champion of democratic rights.
14:42Along comes Donald Trump and indeed his Vice President Vance, who in Europe had comments
14:49to make about what he believed was the selectivity and hypocrisy of democratic nations when it
14:54came to free speech.
14:55Is Trump spoiling for a fight?
14:58Or, as my next question suggests, is Donald Trump the kind of person who will end wars,
15:04whether it's the war in Gaza or the war in Ukraine?
15:07Will Donald Trump be a kind of leader who will end wars is my next question that I want
15:12to put to you, Mr. Rousseau, or is he someone who has a sudden contempt for the old global
15:20world order?
15:21Well, I think what's been missing so far in the discussion, and of course it's still very
15:26early on your show today, we've talked about Europe, we've talked about the Middle East,
15:30but going back to President Obama, President Trump's first term, President Biden, you know,
15:35it's been the stated policy, very overt of the United States across multiple administrations
15:40that we begin shifting our attention to what is the rising strategic threat for the world,
15:45which is China, which is the Indo-Pacific.
15:47And so I suppose that this second round of Trump, you've seen an acceleration of things
15:51that he hinted at, you know, demanding that Europeans step up their own security arrangements
15:56and spending this time, you know, no time to waste.
15:59He's got one four-year term left.
16:01And for these big changes that he hinted at last time around, really trying to accelerate
16:05those initial days in office.
16:06So, you know, we've talked a lot about destabilization and, you know, of course, pressing for peace
16:12in both Europe as well as the Middle East.
16:15In my neck of the woods, focusing more on the Indo-Pacific, you know, you've seen a
16:18little bit more stability, outreach to traditional partners, Japan, of course, a great visit
16:23by Indian Prime Minister last week.
16:25So I think at the end of the day, they haven't articulated it quite so strongly.
16:28But what you're going to see in a drawdown from Europe is really a continuation and acceleration
16:32of what he hinted at last time.
16:34And I suspect you're going to see an acceleration of a lot of partnerships in the Indo-Pacific
16:38across the next three and a half years of the administration.
16:41So that certainly follows on peace, security, human rights, just aiming for, I think, a
16:47different foe, a different challenge that we see.
16:50Let me take that to Andrew Liu there in China.
16:53How are you seeing what's happening at the moment from a Chinese perspective?
16:59There is some commentary which suggests Donald Trump dealing with Russia directly has left
17:03the Chinese feeling red-faced.
17:06Or do the Chinese believe that they can do a deal with Trump?
17:10Is Trump the ultimate dealmaker?
17:13As I said, my next question was, is Trump the right person to end the war in Ukraine,
17:17for example, and where would that leave China if Trump goes ahead and does a direct deal
17:22with the Russians on Ukraine?
17:26I think that China has been watching the Trump administration very, very carefully since
17:34Trump 1.0.
17:36Of course, the terrorist part is nothing new.
17:38I mean, it's doubling down on it and it's imposing tariffs not only on China but on
17:44friends alike.
17:46So that's something new.
17:48What is startling, of course, even to Chinese observers is that he's torn away the fake
17:56leaf from this rhetoric of so-called American-led liberal order.
18:04According to many scholars, the so-called liberal world order is neither liberal or
18:10liberal world or based on American dominance in the first place.
18:19But now even the fake leaf is now removed.
18:21So he's introducing the rules of the jungle, trampling on the sovereignty of even close
18:28allies like Canada and Mexico, Panama.
18:33And he's also sanctioning or putting tariffs on friends alike.
18:40And then he's even belittling the European nation.
18:47But does China fear a Trump administration now, given what's happened over the last few
18:51weeks?
18:52Or has China been unsettled by what's happened?
18:57Well, China is much more prepared for Trump compared with Trump 1.0.
19:06Since Trump 1.0, during the Biden administration, under the directive of President Xi, the country
19:14is now has been barking on self-reliance on technology and it's been very successful.
19:19Look at what's happening even on AI in the form of a game-changing, a deep-seek kind
19:29of platform.
19:30Look at China's independently developing its own space stations and bringing soil samples
19:37from the backside of the moon.
19:38So I think that China is now doubling down on not only on self-reliance on technology,
19:44but on expanding its trade with the global south.
19:49That's very interesting.
19:50I'm just stopping you for a moment.
19:52You're making a very interesting observation.
19:54Actually, the rise of Trump is also leading China to push for greater self-reliance, to
19:58look for technology.
19:59We've seen what they've done with deep-seek.
20:01We've seen the manner in which China in a way is also strengthening itself.
20:06But the big question, of course, the immediate question is the Ukraine war.
20:10Given what's happened in the last few days, the meeting between the United States and
20:14Russia and Saudi Arabia, can Donald Trump end the Ukraine war is a big question being
20:18posed.
20:19Just listen in for a moment what Donald Trump had to say about the Ukrainian President Zelensky
20:24that again has sent that has really stirred the pot across the world.
20:31Every city is being demolished.
20:33They look like a demolition site, every single one of them.
20:37And the only thing he was really good at was playing Joe Biden like a fiddle.
20:41He played him like a fiddle.
20:43That's an expression we use, yes, sir, to say that he's pretty easy, pretty easy.
20:50A dictator without elections, Zelensky better move fast or he's not going to have a country
20:55left.
20:56Got to move, got to move fast because that war is going in the wrong direction.
21:00In the meantime, we're successfully negotiating an end to the war with Russia.
21:05Something I'll admit that only Trump is going to be able to do in the Trump administration.
21:09We're going to be able to do it.
21:11Dr. Tinatin there in Brussels, how do you see what you just heard from Donald Trump?
21:18He calls Zelensky the dictator and he's ready to do business with Putin.
21:25Are we again seeing a re-crafting in a way of relationships?
21:30We see re-crafting of the relationships, but we also see the re-crafting of the reality
21:35because what he says is just not true by evidence.
21:38Zelensky has been democratically elected president by the constitution of Ukraine.
21:42It allows the country to stay under the current government until the situation is peaceful
21:47again, which is definitely not the case.
21:49Also he claims that Ukraine is to be blamed for the war.
21:53We all agree who started the war, that was Russia and this is the violation of the international
21:58law.
21:59Now, as he insists of ending the war, I think the question we should be asking is, can Trump
22:04really have the agreement that can lead to the peace and that can lead to the lasting
22:09peace?
22:10Also, every war ends with some winners and with some losers.
22:14The question to be asked here, who will win this war?
22:17So far, of course, it's very early to have some forecasts, but so far the way these processes
22:22have been started, it's not promising because Trump is having talks with Putin.
22:27Now peaceful agreement or the ending the war involves at least the two parties engaged
22:32in the war.
22:33Ukraine has not been at the table.
22:35So far what he is saying basically, he is echoing the voice of Kremlin.
22:40So he's here that he's really under the influence and under the fake news built by Kremlin.
22:48He is basically treating the diplomacy like a transaction, but he is a business deal maker.
22:53He should not forget whose card is he playing?
22:56Are we just witnessing that he is playing the cards of Kremlin?
22:59Are we also witnessing that now Kremlin is basically winning the war?
23:03Will President Trump be happy if the history marks as the win of Kremlin, not Trump, not
23:09his own way of thinking?
23:10And obviously the stakes are quite high now.
23:14Mr. Russo, you just heard my guests from Europe suggesting that Donald Trump is echoing the
23:19voice of Kremlin.
23:20He's a transactional figure who's treating diplomacy also as a business deal.
23:25These are comments we haven't heard about a U.S. president in a long time.
23:29How do you respond to that?
23:32I agree with the comment.
23:33I mean, it is exactly the kind of media that you see Russia putting out about their version
23:37of the cast of events.
23:39I think to say that President Biden was tricked into this, I mean, there's studies that show
23:43that the United States, you know, basically spent just a few percentage of our defense
23:47budget to totally dismantle about half of Russia's military capabilities in Ukraine.
23:54But it also presumes that Ukrainians do not want to fight for their own independence.
23:58Those are the game fought between world leaders and the people of Ukraine don't want to fight,
24:03you know, for themselves, for their own independence.
24:04So it is a strange thing to see.
24:07Of course, you know, senior U.S. military commanders think the opportunity for Ukraine
24:12to achieve more military gains is pretty limited at this point, mostly a defensive measure
24:17there.
24:18So, you know, coming to a deal that is agreeable makes a lot of sense at this point, because
24:22there may be no future gains for Ukraine to potentially be made.
24:25But for Ukraine not to be at the table, you know, once again, is fighting going to continue?
24:30Is it are they going to accept the deal that's signed by others?
24:33That's pretty unclear.
24:35And frankly, it's pretty difficult to believe.
24:37So what's happening with these dialogues may not actually result in much on the field.
24:41You know, Mr. Chakraborty, this is this is part of the problem India is facing at the
24:47moment.
24:48There is a sense of uncertainty as to what happens in Ukraine, what happens in in West
24:53Asia.
24:54Is this an uncertainty that countries like India will have to live with?
24:58We were talking Prime Minister Modi was talking about sort of helping out in the war in Ukraine,
25:03reaching out to Putin, reaching out to Zelensky.
25:05Trump needs no Modi.
25:06He needs no other leaders.
25:07He's dealing now directly with the principles himself.
25:10He has always said that we don't need this war and it has to stop.
25:20So in that sense, Trump also thinks along those lines that he has to stop this war.
25:26Now, of course, Zelensky is now between a rock and a hard place because you see the
25:32earlier assumption of the Biden administration that they would use Ukraine to defeat Russia
25:39has fallen by the wayside.
25:40That assessment itself, for whatever geostrategic reason, was a faulty one.
25:46And I think Trump knows that.
25:48And I think Trump also realized that the Europe, the Europeans who were also, you know, also
25:55also tricked into this war, in a sense, that that because, you know, demonize Russia, demonize
26:02Putin and then, you know, get Ukraine to keep on fighting.
26:06The truth of the matter is that this war was, whether we like it or not, initiated by the
26:11Russians.
26:12I mean, I agree.
26:13Yes.
26:14It was done by the Russians.
26:15But don't forget, there is a background to it.
26:16After all, several agreements were signed that Ukraine will not be admitted into NATO.
26:17You know, you have to look at the background, not just what Russia did, which it did certainly
26:29violated territorial integrity, but you must look at the background as to why it happened.
26:35So that is very important.
26:36And I'm not going into that.
26:38The whole world knows why it happened.
26:40And I think Trump basically also wants to reverse Biden's policies to show that, you
26:46know, that we are not committed to that kind of approach.
26:49And hence, he is going ahead with this talks.
26:52And I think what ultimately, as our friend from Brussels was saying, that there will
26:57be compromises have to be made.
27:01And I think in this case, Ukraine will have to make most of the compromises in terms of
27:05territory because it has no other choice.
27:10Let me take that to Zachary.
27:11Let me take that.
27:12You're saying Ukraine has very few choices on the table.
27:15Zachary Paikin is joining us, Deputy Director, Better Order Project, to give us another European
27:19perspective.
27:20Is that where we've reached, where Trump has pushed Zelensky now into a corner and thereby
27:26we could well see America and Russia figure out some kind of an agreement between themselves?
27:33Or do you believe no agreement can be without the Ukrainians on the table?
27:36No, but by definition, the Ukrainians are going to have to agree to any final settlement.
27:44Otherwise, it will not take effect.
27:46That's simply a fact.
27:47It's not a question of one's perspective.
27:49If the Ukrainians want to keep on fighting, the Americans might be able to restrict what
27:53they're able to obtain.
27:55But there isn't going to be a total and complete settlement of this conflict in the political
27:59sense unless the Ukrainians agree.
28:00Now, that doesn't mean that the Ukrainians need to be involved in every single aspect
28:05of these negotiations from the get go.
28:07Otherwise, things might not necessarily get anywhere.
28:10I think the Trump administration is perfectly right to signal that it is serious about the
28:13talks by reaching out to the Russians, by initiating new contacts, renewing diplomatic
28:20relations between the two sides.
28:22But this is a nested conflict.
28:23There are some issues that are going to have to be resolved between the Ukrainians and
28:26the Russians.
28:27But there are other issues involving the broader European security order that are going to
28:30have to be worked out between the Americans and the Europeans and the Russians.
28:33And so there are going to be multiple negotiating tracks going on.
28:36And it's perfectly acceptable for some of those tracks to involve the United States
28:39and the Russians.
28:40There needs to be the political space available for those two great powers to be able to speak
28:43to each other.
28:44Let's, for a moment, then pivot to West Asia, which is the other big conflict that's taken
28:49place in the last 24 months.
28:51Can Donald Trump ensure a lasting peace in West Asia?
28:55Ambassador Isha Sharma, do you believe that that's possible?
28:58Is that actually possible?
29:00The one problem that has, in a way, beleaguered administrations through the years, is Donald
29:05Trump the man to ensure a lasting peace in West Asia?
29:08Or is it, again, transactional for him there as well?
29:12Well, I think it actually could be transactional, and it could also be historic.
29:18First of all, after a year, virtually a year and a half of this war, we should recognize
29:23that the whole of the strategic situation in the Middle East has changed.
29:27Hamas has been weakened, Hezbollah has been weakened, the regime has changed in Syria.
29:33And I think also Iran has been, is going to remain on the agenda for a long time in terms
29:39of its nuclear ambition.
29:41So I think there's an opportunity here for the moderate states, for the moderate Arab
29:46states in Israel to look towards a genuine settlement.
29:51And I would hope that the Trump administration would concentrate, first and foremost, on
29:57ending this war, getting all of the hostages back to Israel, and completing the whole of
30:03the hostage exchange.
30:05I think it's important to agree to an agreed and credible pathway to a two-state solution
30:12that could open up our relationship with Saudi Arabia, and even possibly with Syria.
30:17And also, I think that it's going to stay on the agenda.
30:21Iran is going to have to be dealt with.
30:23So you need to deal with the opportunity for peace, but you still have to deal with the
30:27dangers to the stability and security of the moderate Middle East.
30:33And that is an agenda that I would hope that President Trump would adopt.
30:39Will he?
30:40I think the jury's still out on that.
30:43Professor Hanafi, do you see Donald Trump being able to, in a way, separate the moderate
30:50Middle East states from those who are seen to adhere to the Iranian version of exporting
30:56their kind of politics?
30:59And you, therefore, believe that there will be some states now, under Trump's pressure,
31:04that may even abandon the Palestinian cause?
31:07You're on mute, sir.
31:14First, I think we are dealing with a businessman, and businessman, he can be sold by some money.
31:26I don't know coming from where, from the Gulf or any other place.
31:30So it's unpredictable, Trump, where he will be headed.
31:35However, so far, the sign is very bleak.
31:41He is abandoning totally what is international rhetoric on-
31:48No, but will the Arab states at any stage abandon the Palestinian cause if it comes
31:54to that?
31:55Well, before 7 October, it was an idea that we can go into normalization like Morocco
32:05and United Arab Emirates without a genuine commitment of Israel to a two-state solution.
32:13And now, I think after 7 October, the Arab world realized that this is not possible without
32:22realizing a just solution for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, or the Arab-Israeli conflict,
32:28actually, because Syria is also- the Golan Heights are occupied.
32:33So I think for the first time, I see no one in the Arab world would accept the ethnic
32:43cleansing plan of Trump, Netanyahu.
32:49And also, I doubt that they will normalize without a serious two-state or one-state solution.
32:58So you're saying a serious two-state- And let me say one word.
33:04What is really transforming from my colleague from Israel, he is talking about awakening
33:10Hamas, etc.
33:11But the big issue at stake today, how to work in this religious Zionism of the Ghafir, this
33:20radical far-right who colonize Palestinian territories.
33:25West Bank is not only under heavy attack in West Bank today after the genocide of Gaza,
33:34but is a continuous stealing land.
33:37So this is the major issue at stake.
33:39I take your point.
33:41So you're saying that these disputes cannot be settled?
33:45And not only who can weaken Hamas.
33:48This is if we will have our humanity when we're talking about a colonial project like
33:57the Israeli project.
33:58I'm going to stop you, Professor Harafi, for a moment, because I want to go back to another
34:02critical issue.
34:04Will Donald Trump unleash a global tariff war?
34:07This is the concern in several parts of the world, including here in India, possibly there
34:12in China.
34:13Mr. Lewin, is that the fear the Chinese have?
34:15You mentioned earlier, you mentioned earlier in the program about Donald, about China pushing
34:20for greater self-reliance, more technology.
34:22But listen to what Donald Trump said on reciprocal tariffs and then we'll end as well on BRICS.
34:28But listen in first to reciprocal tariffs.
34:32Well, India has been to us just about the highest tariffed nation anywhere in the world.
34:40They've been very strong on tariffs and I don't blame them necessarily, but it's a different
34:44way of doing business.
34:45It's very hard to sell into India because they have trade barriers, very strong tariffs.
34:52We are right now a reciprocal nation.
34:55We are going to, if it's India or if it's somebody else with low tariffs, we're going
35:00to have the same.
35:01We're going to have whatever India charges, we're charging them whatever another country
35:04charges, we're charging them.
35:05So it's called reciprocal, which I think is a very fair.
35:09So we are being reciprocal with India, whatever India charges, we charge them.
35:14So frankly, it no longer matters to us that much what they charge.
35:18Okay.
35:19Let me first go to Mr. Chakraborty and then come to Mr. Lewin, since India was specifically
35:24mentioned by Donald Trump on reciprocal tariffs.
35:26I'll come to you, Mr. Lewin, in a moment.
35:28Mr. Chakraborty, a quick comment on that.
35:29Should India be worried?
35:30It appears that the prime minister was able to negotiate a deferral of some of these tariffs,
35:35but it's still very much there on the table.
35:38Well, I think the crucial part of this is whether the reciprocal tariff that he's talking
35:44about will follow what we call the MFN policy of the WTO.
35:52That is, if I raise the tariff on any product to whatever level, will it be applicable to
36:00all the countries?
36:01Because that is the MFN rule under WTO.
36:04Or is he saying that I won't accept the MFN clause at all and I'm walking out of the WTO
36:09as well?
36:10Trump is very capable of walking out.
36:13Trump is very capable, Mr. Chakraborty, if necessary, of setting his own rules even to
36:18WTO.
36:19Well, I think that he'll have to do a reciprocal tariff on a country-to-country basis.
36:25That's what he wants.
36:26Because if you raise the tariff, then it is applicable to all countries.
36:31That's a different thing.
36:32And I think this is where we do not know what exactly is going to happen.
36:37Because if it is reciprocal, then India will get hit by some of it.
36:43But I also feel that the kind of exports we have and the kind of exports America has to
36:49India, there's a good deal of what is between us, you know, is services trade, which is
36:56you know, there's no tariff on that.
36:58But you know, so I think we'll have to see whether it is.
37:01Yeah, but he's already, as we've seen, he's already he's already put tariffs on steel
37:06and aluminium.
37:07We've got Indian steel and aluminium exporters complaining.
37:09That is for all countries.
37:12Sure, it is all countries.
37:14But as I said, when Trump strikes, he seems to strike across the world.
37:18Let me bring in Mr. Liu Ying, Mr. Liu Ying from a Chinese perspective.
37:21Is Trump going to unleash a global tariff war and where will China stand on that?
37:26If you look at the tariffs on China, even though Trump initially touted 60 percent tariffs
37:36or even higher on China, but has now chosen to impose 10 percent for a start, compared
37:43with 25 percent on Canada and Mexico, America's closest neighbor and allies.
37:51So and also, if you look at China's response, it's been carefully calibrated, not the kind
38:00of exaggerated for that, but where we're chosen to register the point that China doesn't believe
38:05in tariffs.
38:06But on the other hand, China's got used to these tariffs since Trump 1.0 and the Biden
38:13administration as well.
38:15As I said, I mean, China's now selling much more to the global south.
38:20And you would look at the supply group who's supplying very chain, even though products
38:26marked make in India, make in Vietnam, make in Malaysia, they have China embedded in it
38:33in terms of components, in terms of raw materials, in terms of rare earths and in terms of logistics.
38:40For example, the world's largest seven container ports out of the top 11 are in China.
38:48So I think that China's now got used to tariffs in a way.
38:53But also, unlike the Biden administration, Trump wants more investments into the United
39:01States.
39:02And that's something Beijing may well agree to, because if you look at around the world,
39:08a lot of the manufacturing, for example, cars are already, for example, China's only a company
39:16in the United Kingdom producing their black taxis.
39:19The same thing could happen in the United States, and that would stabilize the relationship.
39:24That's interesting.
39:26That's interesting the way you're putting it, you know, Richard Russo, therefore, give
39:29us the big picture.
39:30When you hear these voices from China, when you hear these voices from India, there are
39:35both challenges and opportunities that are being seen in what Donald Trump is unleashing,
39:40especially when it comes to tariffs.
39:43How much of this is, you believe, a bluster?
39:47How much of this is to just simply eventually strike good deals that he believes will benefit
39:52America?
39:54How do you how how should we see someone who every morning gets up with some new idea?
40:01Yeah, I think there's three broad drivers behind tariffs, and everything we've talked
40:07about so far falls into the buckets, and you kind of hinted at what they are.
40:11On one level, strategic issues, where we feel that China has a lot of explicit and implicit
40:16subsidies to its manufacturers, American companies are not competitive, but also in areas of
40:20dual use technology and such, where we're concerned about China's militaristic approach
40:24to its neighbors.
40:25We don't want China to have a stranglehold on the creation of significant technology.
40:30So you're going to see the United States using tariff and other industrial policy to try
40:33to, for strategic reasons, for countries like China to be competitive.
40:38The second is, as you hinted at, is a negotiating tactic.
40:41And that's where I see primarily with Mexico and Canada, with Mexico pushing tariffs as
40:46a way to bring Mexico to the table on border security, similar issues with Canada.
40:52But the third, and that's the biggest bucket, which is America's competitiveness with the
40:56rest of the world.
40:58And we're waiting for April.
41:00You had flashing up on screen, I think, some really terrific graphics that highlight, you
41:04know, the United States does pay higher tariffs to move our goods into other countries versus
41:08what those countries get here.
41:10So April is when that report is supposed to come out.
41:12And I suspect that while we had a relatively successful US-India summit last week, we expect
41:17as well that India is going to get pretty hard when the April report comes out.
41:20You know, the question is, President Trump has said that bilateral trade agreements are
41:23on the table, including with India.
41:26Can we maybe work around some of those pain points by stuffing a lot of our trade goods
41:30baskets into what we're going to consider for a trade agreement, hopefully get that
41:33first tranche done by the end of the year as leaders of promise.
41:36But three big circles right now, different drivers for each.
41:39But I think the strategic and the overall competitiveness, those two buckets, I think
41:44there's going to be real concrete actions that aren't going to be rolled back by the
41:47end of the year.
41:49That's very interesting, because it leads me to my final question, whether Donald Trump
41:53at the end of the day is good or bad for India and global south or, dare I say, the world
41:57in general.
41:58Is this someone who is at the right place at the right time or is he someone who is
42:03simply bad news for the world?
42:06I want you to take that, Mr. Chakraborty.
42:08But ahead of that, let me just put out what Donald Trump said on BRICS after threatening
42:12to slap the block with tariffs.
42:15How did he respond?
42:16Listen, it.
42:17How about BRICS?
42:18You know, the BRIC states are like six of them and they were trying to destroy our dollar.
42:24They were going to say, you know, they wanted to create a new currency.
42:27They probably wanted to use the one China they want to use the one.
42:32And Biden said, well, this is a tough situation.
42:35There's not much we can do about that.
42:36We can't help that.
42:37I said, oh, we can help it.
42:38So when I came in, the first thing I said is any BRIC state that even mentions the destruction
42:44of the dollar will be charged a 150 percent tariff.
42:49And we don't want your goods.
42:50We don't want to partake.
42:51And the BRIC states just broke up.
42:53I don't know what the hell happened to him.
42:54We haven't heard from the BRIC states lately.
42:58Ambassador Chakravarti, when you hear statements like that, virtually suggesting that, you
43:02know, here is a U.S. president, no time for BRICS, no time for these regional arrangements
43:07that have been made, wants to deal directly with countries, possibly strike bilateral
43:12trade agreements.
43:13Should India be concerned or not?
43:16Well, India has to be concerned because what he will do, what he will not do, we are not
43:21sure.
43:22But I think his main focus was on de-dollarization.
43:26That is, American, you know, global hegemony is one of the pillars is the dollar.
43:32I mean, the dollar economy, the financial system.
43:35And that is why they have weaponized that system against Russia and various other countries.
43:41And many countries now have been thinking whether to whether to trade in their own currency
43:46or in or in some other currency, which has happened.
43:50You will remember that during the heydays of non-alignment, India and the Soviet Union
43:55had a rupee-ruble arrangement.
43:56We didn't go through the dollar.
43:59So this is nothing new in terms of trading in your own currency.
44:03But he clearly feels that America's financial hegemony depends on the dollar.
44:09And that is why he's threatening BRICS.
44:11So is he good for India?
44:12Is Donald Trump, in your sense, good for India at the moment or not?
44:16Well, we have to balance it out.
44:18I don't think it is.
44:19We are in the gray area today.
44:21I don't think he's entirely good or entirely bad.
44:25OK, so let me go right round the table one last time to ask each of you, is the world
44:30in a better place one month after Donald Trump took over Zachary Pykin, you first deputy
44:35director Better Order Project there in Geneva?
44:37Is the world in a better place, Zachary, than it was a month ago?
44:41Well, I mean, the obvious answer is it's too early to tell.
44:44But there are some optimistic signals and some pessimistic signals.
44:48So on the optimistic side, it seems as if President Trump wants to talk to other great
44:52powers and to abandon a mentality of primacy in which the United States effectively appoints
44:58itself as the sole arbiter of global rules, as the dominant actor in every single region
45:04of the globe, in which it is the only rule maker and everyone else is expected to be,
45:08especially non-allies, are expected to be a rule taker.
45:12That's a mentality, to some extent, that Donald Trump has distanced himself with.
45:15He's positioned himself as a dealmaker.
45:17He said he's open to talking with Russia.
45:19He's even open to talking with China.
45:21And there are initial reports.
45:22Obviously, there's a debate going on within the U.S. administration on this.
45:25But there are reports that Donald Trump might be willing to strike a mutually beneficial
45:29economic agreement with China that could see more Chinese purchases of American goods,
45:35more Chinese investment in the United States, which is not something that the hawks would
45:38necessarily want.
45:40And Donald Trump has even talked about the possibility of a trilateral denuclearization
45:43plan, strategic stability and reduction of nuclear arms.
45:48Reinvigorating arms control is something that very much would be very beneficial for the
45:52international order.
45:54What concerns me is obviously this rhetoric concerning America's desire to dominate its
45:59so-called near abroad, as it were, if I can put it that way, which harkens back to previous
46:04years in U.S. foreign policy, this more continentalist or Monroe Doctrine-centric foreign policy.
46:10If this does lead to certain efforts to take territory by force, whether it's economic
46:15force or military force, whether it's Canada, my home country, you know, Greenland, the
46:20Panama Canal, what have you, then obviously that would be much, much more problematic
46:24as that would run against, you know, fundamental norms such as sovereignty that lie at the
46:28heart of today's international order.
46:30But just because Donald Trump is not doing business as usual within the transatlantic
46:34community does not mean that he's overturning the international order writ large, right?
46:38Just because he wants to talk to Russia doesn't mean that the international order is in crisis
46:43because the international order is more than just the Western transatlantic community.
46:47It's more than just the liberal international order.
46:50Because the fact is, Jeremy, there in Israel, that there are commentators speaking about
46:55Donald Trump's vision of spheres of influence.
46:58You create spheres of influence, a Russian sphere of influence, possibly a Chinese sphere
47:02of influence, and certainly an American sphere of influence.
47:04Is that something that should worry the world?
47:06Is the world in a better place today than it was a month ago?
47:10I know a month is not a very long time in politics, but Trump makes it appear so.
47:16Well, I think the Middle East, for one thing, could be in a better place if the American
47:21administration puts its influence and power behind an agreed and credible political horizon
47:28between Israel and the Palestinians.
47:31As I said before, this is a strategic opportunity.
47:34It's important for Israel and the Palestinians, moderate Palestinians, not the ones that Mr.
47:38Hanafi has talked about as being such liberal freedom fighters, but genocidal terrorists
47:46like Hamas.
47:47But I'm talking about moderate Palestinians.
47:49This is a key to regional stability and greater normalization between Israel and its Arab
47:54neighbors.
47:55And it also will be a key to dealing with Iran and its negative influence to regional
48:00security in the area.
48:02One thing I'd like to throw out there is that I think, and I've been thinking a lot about
48:05this, is that India also has a role to play.
48:08You have an idea of having an India-Middle East-European corridor that would come through
48:13the Middle East.
48:15And this could be a major factor in giving an economic infrastructure to the two-state
48:19solution.
48:20So I would think very carefully of furthering and promoting this idea along with the two-state
48:25solution.
48:26It could be of great benefit to Jordan, to the Palestinians, to Israel, to the Saudis,
48:33and to the UAE and other Gulf countries.
48:37How should then India deal, Mr. Chakravarti, with Donald Trump, given what you've heard?
48:42What is India's role, in your view?
48:45Very quickly.
48:46Well, I think we'll be looking at different domains and trying to balance them.
48:50I mean, you have several sectors in which India and the U.S. do business.
48:56There's the defense sector, and of course there is the strategic factor of the Quad.
49:01I mean, if the Americans under Trump are serious about the Quad, then they'll have to be serious
49:06about India as well, because without India, the Quad cannot go any further.
49:12And I think those are some of the balancing factors that India will be looking at.
49:17But if a Trump administration, Mr. Chakravarti, strikes a deal tomorrow with China, should
49:24India be worried?
49:25There's talk of a potential economic partnership.
49:27Trump will see might is right.
49:28He'll go with the Chinese.
49:29Where does that leave us?
49:31Well, I think that is also possible, but that would be more economic.
49:36I don't think the Americans are going to abandon the fact that China will be a competitor
49:41and a threat in future to their own global hegemony, and they will want to balance that
49:46as well.
49:47OK.
49:48Andrew Liu, do you see this possibility of China and the United States coming closer
49:55together very quickly?
49:58If you look at what Trump wants right from the very start, his ambitions over Canada,
50:06Greenland, Mexico, Panama, they are all in the Western hemisphere.
50:12This is a moral doctrine writ large, and also he wants to stop the war in Ukraine, probably
50:22to Russia's favor, and he's probably want to strike a deal with Iran and with another
50:29new deal to have peace in the Middle East.
50:32So I think that he wants to go down in history as a peace president and yet trying to make
50:38America great again by focusing on the sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere.
50:44And that's the point of the possibility of a fair bargain with China.
50:50We're talking about a 21st century Monroe Doctrine, but I want to give Richard Russo
50:54the final word.
50:55We started off with you there in Washington.
50:57He's after all your president at the end of the day.
51:00Do you believe one month on, is the world a safer place, Mr. Russo, than it was when
51:07Donald Trump took over, or do you believe we can only judge that four years from now?
51:13I think it's mostly been negative so far.
51:16We're in the shredding phase.
51:17They're trying to throw every single thing that we've got in the shredder, key relationships
51:22with Europe, with Canada, with others, dismantling USAID, withdrawing from organizations, the
51:28climate accords, WHO, the tariff war against the world.
51:31So right now in kind of this deconstruction phase, we're causing more chaos than I think
51:37that we're versus being helpful.
51:39The question is, is there going to be a construction phase where they take a look at all these
51:44institutions we've abandoned, where we double down on the quad, we look for what's the status
51:49of AUKUS going to be?
51:51Those vital relationships that we need to build or institutions that we need to reinvigorate
51:55or create.
51:56So absolute destruction phase right now across the board, causing a lot of instability, a
52:00lot of questions, but will there be a construction phase?
52:03Because that has not been articulated yet, and that's I think what's going to cause the
52:06real answer to the question at the end of four years, and it's an absolute empty set
52:10right now.
52:12You know, wonderful to hear voices from across the world.
52:14We're actually going to start probably sooner or later on the channel, a Trump tracker,
52:20because on a daily basis, we know, sorry, can I have a final word?
52:25Yeah.
52:26Yeah.
52:2730 seconds.
52:28Except me.
52:29So I think I think Trump can be beneficial if there is a working call for liberal world.
52:40And this is the association of the United States from Europe.
52:45And now the liberal woke up to to think why democracy is in a crisis to bring such a human
52:53being into the power.
52:55So this can be very beneficial.
52:59OK, I'm going to leave it there, disruptor or someone who's going to transform the world
53:05in his own image.
53:06We'll wait and see.
53:07As I said, we should have a Trump tracker sooner or later, because that's where all
53:11the news keeps happening on a daily basis.
53:16We'll wait and see whether this uncertain world eventually results in the construction
53:20phase.
53:21As Mr. Russo put it, for now, all bets are off when it comes to Donald Trump.
53:27Thank you all very much for joining me on this very special Global Roundtable.
53:32Thanks for watching.
53:33Stay well.
53:34Stay safe.
53:35Jai Hind.
53:36Namaskar.
53:37Namaskar.