In an interview with DW at the Munich Security Conference, Pakistan's Former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto talked about Islamabad's expectations from US President Donald Trump and the security challenges it is facing.
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00:00Mr. Victor, thanks for joining us here at the Munich Security Conference.
00:03Thank you. Thank you for having me.
00:05There's a big paradigm shift happening
00:08in the world with the US and China at loggerheads.
00:12Does Pakistan see, feel the need to be in one camp rather than the other?
00:17I think the pace of that, of that competitiveness has very palpable effects
00:23all across the world.
00:24I think you're feeling it here in Munich at the MSC.
00:30And most of the world is engaged
00:34in that competitiveness from a Pakistani perspective.
00:37Historically, we've played the role of a bridge builder rather than, say,
00:42a dividing force, or there are some countries who are profiting or benefiting
00:47from the fact that these two countries, the United States and China,
00:52are increasingly competitive.
00:54But Pakistan has been in a different position.
00:56If you want to put us in a camp,
00:58we would like to see ourselves as bridge builders.
01:01And we've played that role in the past
01:02between establishing diplomatic contacts and the relationship
01:07between the United States and China. And going forward,
01:10we'd like to see ourselves as a country that can bridge that
01:14cap rather than sort of increase that division.
01:17Is that going to be possible,
01:19that role of bridge building with that new Trump administration?
01:22We're all getting our first impressions here with them in action.
01:25What do you think for Pakistan?
01:27The impression we get, or I get,
01:29from the Trump administration or from President Trump is that he's a dealmaker.
01:33And in that context, I think,
01:36given the challenges that we do face in the region,
01:40there are topics and areas in which we can engage with the United States
01:45that fit within that roadmap.
01:49One such domain, which
01:52we talked about on the campaign trail and
01:55as at least articulated as part of the current government's foreign policy,
02:00is the possibility of
02:03making peace with India or at least trading and engaging with India.
02:08I think a deal maker like President Trump,
02:12who's interested in playing a role for peace across the world.
02:18It looks like the Trump administration is closer to India, New Delhi at the moment.
02:22Does it like kind of, is it a problem?
02:27A lot of presumptions about the Indian
02:29American relationship were tested during the Ukraine crisis.
02:33I do think that with the China-US conflict
02:40and with the US's attempts to build up India as a sort of counterweight
02:49to China does upset the balance of power in the region.
02:53It does have knock-on effects, for example,
02:57in the arms race between India and Pakistan.
03:01We are both countries that have immense
03:03challenges as far as poverty and unemployment and there's far better
03:07places for Pakistan to be spending its money and for India to be spending its money.
03:12But if the US is going to
03:14try and establish India as a net security provider in the region,
03:20then Pakistan will do what it must to sustain or maintain that race.
03:26Listening to J.D. Vance, the vice president yesterday,
03:29of course, that left the Europeans shocked here.
03:33His speech, what was your reaction when you heard that, that the West
03:38essentially was fighting on the open stage here in Munich?
03:41It's not a surprise for us because we're
03:43used to the fact that the US looks after US interests first.
03:49And for us, it was very recently that President Trump first unilaterally
03:55tweeted that he's leaving Afghanistan.
03:58And at that time, also, the EU wasn't consulted.
04:02The most non-allied ally outside of NATO
04:06on the border of Afghanistan wasn't consulted.
04:08The Afghan
04:10government of the time was not consulted.
04:14The US made up its mind and it did what it had to do.
04:17All I think it means is,
04:19is that the old norms of how to deal with the world have changed.
04:23I think Europe is learning to engage with that.
04:26Pakistan also has to learn how to engage with that.
04:29But from our perspective,
04:31the point that I'd like to emphasize is that everybody has to look after their people.
04:35That's their mandate.
04:36When you see the West so fragmented,
04:38do you feel the urge to get even closer to China?
04:42I think that China's
04:46trajectory has been steady and consistent and not as erratic.
04:51And it is sustaining.
04:53Not as erratic as the US.
04:54It's just not been erratic.
04:55I'm not going to compare it to exactly who is just not erratic.
04:58We're pretty erratic.
05:00So you can take that comparison.
05:01But they have a consistent, stable trajectory.
05:06And that has its appeal.
05:08We are in the neighborhood and it makes sense for us to do business
05:13with China, to work with China.
05:14But it also doesn't make sense for us to cut us off from the rest of the world.
05:18We've had a huge increase in exports
05:21from Pakistan to Europe and exports from Europe to Pakistan.
05:24The US is still a massive, if not the largest market for the people of Pakistan.
05:31So it doesn't serve our purposes.
05:33Pakistan's economy is somewhat stable now,
05:36but politically there is a lot of chaos still.
05:40In order to deal with the security issues
05:43that Pakistan is facing
05:45in relation to the Taliban,
05:47Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in Afghanistan and also Iran in some ways,
05:53do you think that will hinder the...
05:57There will be a lack of consensus to create a long term security strategy
06:03that Pakistan should formulate now?
06:06Pakistan's current security challenge is not emanating,
06:10I would say, out of Iran in any way, but it is a direct consequence
06:14of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which has resulted in a whole host
06:21of militant organizations gaining a lot more momentum.
06:27One of which is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan,
06:31which was a basically dismantled organization who did not maintain
06:36the capacity to recruit or to conduct attacks before the fall of Kabul.
06:40They've come back with the vengeance.
06:42You also have Daesh.
06:44And in addition to that, a whole host of subsets of separatists
06:49and nationalist groups that, again, as part of the previous operations,
06:52their ability to recruit, their ability to conduct
06:56military operations,
06:57connection activity in Pakistan had been deeply diminished.
07:01On pre the fall of Kabul,
07:04one could say that we were more successful in dismantling and taking
07:08on these militant outfits within Pakistan than all of NATO was in
07:14Afghanistan for their counter-outfits or for some of these outfits.
07:17In order to meet that challenge,
07:19Pakistan first needs an effective and comprehensive domestic consensus
07:24that it is owned across the political spectrum so we can take the fight
07:28to these groups like we have in the past.
07:30And I'm full of confidence that we can do in the future.
07:33And then we'll be in a position to have
07:35a serious conversation regionally and internationally about what are we going
07:39to do about this mess that we've left behind.
07:41But this is not happening in Pakistan,
07:43the consensus, particularly because of Imran Khan incarcerated.
07:49Imran Khan being incarcerated or not,
07:52I think my father was incarcerated and Mr.
07:55Nawaz Sharif was incarcerated.
07:57His daughter was incarcerated during Mr. Khan's time.
08:00It didn't stop us from forming consensus on important issues.
08:03Of course, if you choose to do the politics,
08:05that's just about yourself.
08:07And then if you, you know, sort of free me from my cases and then only,
08:10well, fair enough, I guess in that extreme landscape,
08:14it is hard to form consensus in politics, full stop.
08:20Mr. Khan has never been broadly part
08:22of a consensus against these groups, even in the past.
08:27Do you think the German government,
08:28the next one, should establish diplomatic ties
08:33with the de facto rulers of Afghanistan, the Taliban?
08:36To engage with the threat of terrorism
08:40and militancy outside of the geopolitical
08:44partisan issues, because it should be a challenge that unites us all.
08:50And the German government just this year expressed concern
08:54about deportations of Afghan refugees back to Afghanistan, complaining to Pakistan.
08:59I think a bigger question to ask is,
09:01because Pakistan has also been very collaborative.
09:05How long can they host the next million
09:07people without any engagement or compensation or way to fund?
09:12Pakistan's cracking down on Afghan migrants there.
09:14That's been taken up by amnesty, several human rights organizations.
09:19So I totally understand that, you know,
09:22Pakistan has to deal with, like, hundreds and thousands of refugees.
09:27But the crackdown has intensified over the years, particularly for those refugees
09:31in Pakistan who were only there on a transitionary visa,
09:36who were only there because they're waiting for their visa to the U.S.
09:41or to anywhere else
09:44for that. They will have a more hostile time.
09:47The crisis in the Middle East and possible
09:50fallout, which is related to Iran and Pakistan, the sectarian rifts are huge.
09:56Do you see it as a problem?
09:59How worried are you about the situation which is unfolding in the Middle East?
10:04Our primary security challenger from these
10:06militant organizations that have seen a boost from the fall of Kabul.
10:11As far as Iran is concerned, it's our neighbor.
10:15And Pakistan now is neighbors to China, Iran, Afghanistan and India.
10:21And because of the world's conflict with Iran, not our conflict with Iran,
10:25because of the world's conflict with Iran, our people and the people of Iran have not
10:29been able to trade, have not been able to engage economically.
10:32That's having an outsized impact
10:34on the economy, on the poverty, on the unemployment on either side of the border.
10:38I certainly don't think it'll help if there's any sort of escalation in conflict
10:41with Iran.