Germany’s conservative CDU party is pushing for tough anti-immigration policies – even if it means getting help from the far-right AfD. What does that mean for Germany’s future? Our guests: Kate Brady (Washington Post); Jörg Lau (Zeit); Ralph Bollmann (Faz)
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00:00Germany's conservative CDU, the party of Angela Merkel, has outraged other parties
00:06by trying to pass through tough anti-immigration policies using support from the far right.
00:13It is a huge taboo, broken.
00:16In parliament, CDU leader Friedrich Merz tried to push through draft legislation with backing
00:21from the AFD, the alternative for Germany.
00:24Now the country is wondering, how far to the right are Germany's conservatives willing
00:29to go?
00:30Merz's party is at the top of the polls less than a month before national elections.
00:34So this week on To The Point, we're taking a closer look at Germany's conservatives
00:39today.
00:40Are their policies now closer to those of Angela Merkel or Donald Trump?
00:57Hello, I'm Claire Richardson, thank you so much for joining us on this week's edition
01:00of To The Point.
01:01I'm so pleased to introduce our panel.
01:04We have Jörg Lau, an editor of Foreign Affairs at the German weekly Die Zeit.
01:10Ralph Bollmann, he's written a biography of Angela Merkel and is also editor at the German
01:14weekly Die Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung.
01:19And Kate Brady, weekly reporter, daily reporter we should say, for the Washington Post in
01:24Berlin focused on German politics.
01:29So a fantastic panel of guests.
01:31Thank you so much for joining me today.
01:33I think it makes sense to start with a bit of international perspective for our viewers,
01:37Kate.
01:38The AFD party has until now had a so-called firewall up around it from the other German
01:44parties in which they say that they would not work together with them.
01:48Why is that?
01:49I mean, this is very deeply ingrained into Germany's post-war history.
01:53It's part of Germany's never again mentality, the idea that the parties in the German parliament
01:59would never cooperate with a far-right party.
02:01And that has been the case in Germany's entire post-war history.
02:06But of course, this has kind of come to the forefront a lot more since the AFD entered
02:11parliament for the first time in 2017.
02:14And this was a huge taboo that was broken last week.
02:19And whether or not, you know, maybe that's something we can get into, whether or not
02:22this firewall, as it's known as, is really still standing.
02:26Are there cracks in it?
02:27Is it crumbling?
02:28Every metaphor under the sun has been used in the last week.
02:31But it's certainly on shaky ground.
02:32Yeah, we certainly will be getting further into that in today's episode.
02:35I want to ask Ralf first, though, about Merz pushing for these tough anti-immigration policies.
02:41What do you think he hopes to gain from this?
02:44I think he was influenced by the last attack, which happened in the Bavarian town of Aschaffenburg
02:51two weeks ago.
02:52And the day after, he presented a tough migration plan, which was quite successful in German
02:59public and was very much acclaimed.
03:03And he had the impression that he had to go further.
03:07And then one more day after, he said, well, I will bring that to the parliament, whatever
03:13it takes.
03:14And I won't have a look to the left or to the right, just straight on, all in.
03:20And yeah, and he didn't really reflect or realize what he was doing.
03:27That was my impression.
03:28So you're saying instead of working with the typical other parties, he brought this forward
03:32anyway, knowing that he wouldn't have their support on it?
03:35No, because we have the elections, of course, in three weeks.
03:39And I think that would be a topic for the coalition talks after the election.
03:46And the solution would have been that he presents the plan for the campaign.
03:52And then after the election, the democratic parties talk about coalitions and what to
03:58do on migration.
04:00Yeah, so something interesting to the timing here, too, right?
04:03Jörg, we should say this was hugely controversial in Germany, right?
04:07Merz's decision to go ahead with this AFD support.
04:11There were huge demonstrations in Berlin after the fact.
04:15Why was this such a controversial decision?
04:18Well, as Kate just mentioned, it was a taboo broken.
04:23And it also poses a question on the table, is this now a model that he wants to follow
04:30up after having coalition talks that maybe don't lead anywhere?
04:38And then will he again depend on the AFD, form some kind of informal agreement as a
04:46minority government or even a coalition with them?
04:51He says he will never do that.
04:53He said that over and over again.
04:56But the question of his trustworthiness in that respect is now out in the open.
05:02And it's going to be there for the rest of the campaign.
05:05Yeah, so that is very much the undercurrent, the question behind all of this, right?
05:10Let's turn to these questions in just a moment.
05:12First though, I do want to get a bit more context.
05:14Because when most people in the world think of Germany, one of the first people they'll
05:18of course think of is former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
05:22So now that her party is led by Friedrich Merz, he's demanding a quite serious departure
05:26from much of what she is known for, and not just in terms of immigration policy.
05:32Friedrich Merz and Angela Merkel, the current CDU leader and possible new chancellor, and
05:39the former chancellor and party leader, political rivals with extremely different personalities.
05:47In 2015, Merkel supported an influx of over one million refugees into Germany, mainly
05:53from Syria and Afghanistan.
05:56Merkel coined the phrase, we can do it.
06:02Since Merkel's retirement in 2021, Merz has realigned his party's migration policies.
06:08He wants to greatly reduce the inflow, set up controls at all borders and turn away asylum
06:14seekers there.
06:16When he introduced a resolution outlining these aims in the Bundestag, he accepted votes
06:21from the AFD, known to be home to right-wing extremists.
06:25The motion isn't binding, but it's caused quite a stir.
06:29Some see this as breaching a taboo.
06:32Even Angela Merkel has criticized the vote, an unusual move for a former chancellor.
06:39There is grumbling in the CDU.
06:41Is it still the party of Merkel?
06:43Not all MPs followed Merz.
06:45Some voted against the motion.
06:47Will his vision of a stricter migration policy prevail?
06:51So, Kate, after 16 years as chancellor, Merkel is now in retirement.
06:59She's mostly out of politics.
07:01How surprising was it to hear her then come out on this issue?
07:05It was extremely surprising.
07:06She's been very quiet on a number of other issues.
07:09When people have perhaps expected her or hoped that she would speak out, you know, we can
07:13talk about things like Russia, Ukraine, and she stayed very quiet.
07:18But on this topic, it was surprising when we saw that statement appear on her webpage
07:23just a week ago.
07:26And the fact that also there's a history, there's a long history between Merz and Merkel
07:30as well, ultimately a very bitter leadership competition going back nearly 25 years ago
07:36now, was ultimately why we saw Merz actually leave Germany's political stage for some time,
07:41which has been in the way in the long run for Angela Merkel to become Germany's leader
07:45for 16 years.
07:46And so I think it had that extra layer there that this criticism was coming from Merkel
07:51of all people.
07:52But as we saw there just in that short video as well, it couldn't be where Merz has taken
07:58the CDU on, especially the issue of migration, it couldn't be further away from what we saw
08:03at the height of the migration crisis 2015 with Germany's welcome culture and migrants
08:10welcome, refugees welcome.
08:12And we've obviously seen over the past 10 years a massive turnaround on the feeling
08:18in the country that we saw a decade ago.
08:20Exactly.
08:21This will come in culture.
08:22Do you think Merz is just putting the nail in the coffin?
08:24To be honest, I was not so much surprised about the intervention of Angela Merkel.
08:31That was not so much because of the migration policies of Friedrich Merz.
08:38I think if it would have been only migration, she would have said nothing.
08:45Because Angela Merkel herself, of course, made after 2015 a much tougher migration policy.
08:52But the point was the future of liberal democracy.
08:56And Germany is the last large Western democracy where populists have not so much influence
09:05on government and so on.
09:07And the taboo Friedrich Merz broke in this sense was the point when she thought she had
09:15to intervene.
09:16And she, as the person at the time when Donald Trump was elected for the first time in the
09:21United States and there was a Brexit vote in Britain, she was the person who defended
09:29liberal democracy as the leader of the free West.
09:33That was at least the impression in the international scene.
09:39And that is the point why this argument, having a vote in the parliament with right-wing extremists,
09:48was so crucial for her.
09:49So that's really the question, right, Jörg?
09:51Are Germany's conservatives now leaning towards embracing far-right populism?
09:59I think not intentionally on the part of Merz.
10:04He wanted a stricter migration policy.
10:08His calculation was, I can't get it with the center-left, so I'm going to blackmail them
10:16a little bit by not excluding a vote with the AFD.
10:21And then he even added some language into the draft proposals that were not easy to
10:27swallow for the AFD, thinking they wouldn't vote for it.
10:30But they voted for it anyway.
10:32So he got outsmarted by the AFD, and it was a miscalculation.
10:37So I don't think it's really, there is a big plan to move the CDU towards the populist-nationalist
10:46far-right.
10:47He wanted to use them, and he got used.
10:49So that's the problem of this maneuver.
10:53And when you actually look at what Merz wants to do with immigration, how much overlap is
10:59there between the CDU's platform and that of the AFD?
11:04Well, in terms of migration policy, there is overlap.
11:08I mean, the AFD is all about migration and shutting down migration once and for all,
11:16closing the borders.
11:18They have a very populist agenda there.
11:20There's some overlap there.
11:22But in other issues that are very, very essential for the CDU, there is absolutely no way they
11:28can cooperate, like Ukraine-Russia policy, NATO, transatlantic relations, and even also
11:38the economy.
11:40I don't see that they really could work together.
11:42And we should also say, as you've mentioned, Jörg, that Friedrich Merz has categorically
11:48ruled out any cooperation with the AFD.
11:51He told us that in an interview with DW.
11:55We're not collaborating with this party.
11:57We weren't last week, aren't this week, and won't be next week either.
12:01We won't accept the AFD's tacit support, and won't even talk with them.
12:06The AFD stands for the exact opposite of everything that's important to us—NATO, ties with the
12:11West, the EU, the euro.
12:14The AFD rejects it all.
12:17It's OK, your thoughts here.
12:22Do you believe Merz when he says that?
12:23Was this a one-off, or will there potentially be more future cooperation between the CDU
12:29and the AFD?
12:30I think as Jörg was saying, it wasn't so much intentional, but it was almost inevitable
12:35in a way.
12:36We kind of, I would say we saw this moment coming.
12:40And he was played by the AFD, the thought that he thought that the AFD wouldn't vote
12:46in favor of this motion, as it were, just because there were some very harsh words
12:53in there from the CDU about the AFD was very naive in a way.
12:59But I think it's not only what this means for the political path of the CDU, but also
13:05what effect this has on voters.
13:07And we're only just going to start seeing if there is really any effect here in the
13:12polls.
13:13In the long term, what this does, of course, there were concerns among the more, let's
13:17say, Merkel-like corners of the CDU that this would scare off more centrist CDU voters.
13:24But on the other hand, while suddenly, you know, CDU voters aren't necessarily going
13:29to say, OK, we'll now go and vote AFD because I don't think the firewall is particularly
13:34strong anymore, what it does do is legitimize what the AFD stands for.
13:40And it is going to strengthen the AFD at a time when right now they're already, for months,
13:46have been polling as the second strongest party in Germany.
13:48Still no chance at all, we think, of governing, at least now.
13:54But we do have to look ahead to what that means four years down the line in the next
13:58election, 2029.
14:00Where are they going to be then?
14:01Where is the CDU going to be on the political spectrum?
14:04Are we going to see more, you can call it an accident, we can call it intentional, what
14:09happened with this cooperation.
14:11But ultimately, Matt allowed that to happen.
14:13He didn't need to put this draft on the table.
14:15And it was partly about putting the Social Democrats and the Greens under pressure as
14:19well to, you know, impose more action when it came to migration.
14:26But as we were saying earlier, it's all timing as well.
14:29We have to ask how much of this was about electioneering.
14:32This was off the back of two very tragic, fatal attacks committed by, or the suspects
14:40at least, are non-German nationals.
14:41And that brought the topic of migration back to the foreground.
14:44And I think that in itself is really interesting, too, that in recent months, it's actually
14:49the economy that for the first time in years has been the most important topic for German
14:54voters.
14:55Yeah, absolutely.
14:56Now, Ralph, I also want to pick up on what Kate mentioned regarding of how this will
15:00play with public opinion.
15:02I thought it was interesting that Germany's two largest churches also came out to condemn
15:07Merz here, right?
15:08And they're condemning someone who's the leader of the Christian Democrats.
15:12How much weight will their words have?
15:14Well, it's not sure yet because we don't have seen polls which were done really after this
15:21event.
15:22And it always takes a little bit of time before people realize that.
15:26We have these huge demonstrations last weekend in Berlin and other German cities.
15:31And I think there are two problems.
15:34Problem number one is that Friedrich Merz made migration, as she mentioned it, migration
15:41to the main topic of the campaign for the rest of the time.
15:47And of course, that's always in favor of the right extremist party of AFD because they
15:54are the party which is identified with migration.
15:59And the other problem, of course, is that voters, centrist voters, perhaps won't vote
16:09for Friedrich Merz on the CDU anymore because they mistrust him and they are not so sure
16:16anymore that when he now says he won't cooperate with the right-wing extremists after the election,
16:24that he will do it like this, of course, because he already broke his word last week
16:33and people think that that could happen again.
16:37And I think that that is not good for political stability in Germany.
16:41Germany was one of the last Western democracies with a really strong center-right conservative
16:47party because they always had the clear strategy not to cooperate with the right-wing extremists
16:56and not to make their issues strong.
16:59That was a mistake which parties in France, in Austria and many other countries made.
17:08And this is in danger and it's not good for democracy if Friedrich Merz will have a bad
17:15result in the elections because we will have again, as we had the last three years, a weak
17:22government with many discussions, many problems, or even perhaps the coalition talks will fail
17:30and then we have a situation like in Austria.
17:35Perhaps other people who are not so clear in this question will take over in the conservative
17:43party and cooperate with the right-wing extremists, or, which is a possibility in Austria as well,
17:49or we have a second election this year.
17:51I wouldn't exclude that.
17:52Goodness.
17:53We'll see you all back at the table for that one.
17:55Jörg, maybe you could just pick up where Ralph left off.
17:58I guess what I'm curious about is when you look at the situation more broadly, what is
18:02going on here?
18:03Is this about the CDU trying to co-opt votes from the AFD or does it actually reflect a
18:10shift in German society toward more conservative opinions, especially on migration?
18:15It's both.
18:16It's both.
18:18We have seen opinion polls on the issue of immigration, asylum, where you can see that
18:25there is a rightward shift in the public and it also includes voters of the Social Democrats
18:31and the Greens.
18:32So there is a broad consensus that something needs to happen to contain migration to Germany
18:40and to distinguish between asylum seekers and those who come to work here.
18:46So there's a consensus there, but it's a different issue when it comes to the question,
18:55who should put this into work, this different policy that people want?
19:05And I think if you look at the big picture internationally, centrist, big tent conservative
19:13parties are under pressure everywhere by populist, nationalist, right-wing groups.
19:23In the US, the Republicans have been taken over by Trumpism, the conservatives in Britain
19:31are in big problems and in France, they're almost non-existent.
19:35So it's the same development that's taking place in Germany right now.
19:40So it's interesting that it has taken longer for this to happen in Germany than in other
19:44Western European democracies, right Kate?
19:47Absolutely.
19:48And I think part of that was to do with this very strong firewall, as it were, that was
19:52held for a long time.
19:54But at the same time, sorry, could you just repeat the question again?
19:58It's interesting that Germany has shifted in these trends more recently than many other
20:04Western European democracies that we're actually seeing exactly what you've just described.
20:09I think we have to keep in mind as well that the AFD was only founded in 2013.
20:13And because of this pushback against the far right in Germany for so many decades, of course
20:19there were far-right parties, far-right extremist parties as well, some being banned, some renamed.
20:26But the fact that a far-right party could then make it into parliament, that was a huge
20:31taboo at the time.
20:32We saw demonstrations on the streets back in 2017 when the AFD entered parliament for
20:36the first time.
20:37And so when it comes to some of these trends, often Germany is a little late to the, I don't
20:43want to say party, but it really to the trend.
20:48And I think that played a huge role, the fact that the AFD is relatively new and has shifted
20:53very quickly.
20:54The party's radicalized, it began its roots in this Euro-skeptic party.
20:58If you compare that to something like the nearest equivalent, the FPÖ, the Freedom
21:03Party in Austria, they've been around since the 1950s and they've had shifts where they
21:09were more moderate, more conservative, more far-right, and now arguably at their most
21:13far-right in the party's history.
21:16And people have had a lot of time there to kind of get to grips with the party, what
21:19they stand for, and the AFD has just shifted further and further and further right.
21:23Please, Ralph, do you want to comment?
21:25I think one main reason, of course, is history.
21:28Because Germany, because of the Nazi history, was always quite immune against right-wing
21:34extremism, and it was widely not accepted in the public.
21:39And that's similar in other countries, which had right-wing dictatorships even after 1945,
21:46such as Spain or Greece or Portugal, they developed very late such right-wing extremist
21:53movements.
21:54Now, I do want to just hold that thought for just a moment.
21:56I do want to just take a quick look at the issue of immigration again, since it's come
22:00up so often with Merkel's famous phrase, Wir schaffen das.
22:05And finally, having lost its shine, for example, we've seen figures from the German government
22:10showing attacks on asylum-seeker homes increasing again to more than 200 attacks just in 2024.
22:18And that is, as Kate has mentioned, among a series of high-profile attacks that have
22:23involved migrants as suspects in the last few years.
22:28Morning in Aschaffenburg in January of this year, a man stabbed and killed a two-year-old
22:34child, then killed someone who rushed to help.
22:38The alleged perpetrator is a mentally ill refugee from Afghanistan.
22:45The attack is the latest in a series of violent crimes perpetrated by migrants living in Germany.
22:51It's prompted Friedrich Merz to call for a change in migration policy.
22:55He wants controls at all borders, and for the long term, not just temporarily.
23:01He openly declared himself in favor of violating EU law if necessary.
23:06He said the distribution of refugees is unfair and hurts Germany.
23:10But there are protests.
23:12Will the EU's largest country go it alone on migration policy?
23:17Leaders in Austria and Poland are among those voicing concerns.
23:20U.S. President Donald Trump also wants to take a hard line on immigration.
23:26He signed a decree declaring a state of emergency at the border with Mexico, a highly controversial
23:31move.
23:32His goal is to end all immigration across the border.
23:37Merz says that if elected, he will start implementing pushbacks at the border on day one.
23:43But is that really possible?
23:45And wouldn't that violate German and European law?
23:50So Ralph, just to really bring things home here, I'm curious how this debate in Germany
23:54around immigration has taken such a negative framing, even among many of the main parties.
24:01It's dealt with as something that's negative, that must be dealt with.
24:05But the vast majority of migrants do live in Germany peacefully.
24:09Many of them go to school, pay taxes.
24:10How did we get here?
24:11Yes, I think that it's a little bit of a strange debate as the integration of the migrants
24:19who came 2015-16 in the refugee crisis to Germany are quite well integrated.
24:28Eighty percent of the Syrian men who came at that time to Germany do work.
24:36So I think also that we are debating a little bit, we should debate a little bit more about
24:44the success and not always how unsuccessful we are.
24:49And so Jörg, with that in mind, do you see parallels between what's happening in Germany
24:54and the United States?
24:55Yes, absolutely.
24:57I think the main parallel is that it's about taking back control and losing control as
25:07what everybody wants to avoid.
25:09And that generally favors the right.
25:13And I think you have to give that to Friedrich Merz and he actually wants to get, take back
25:21control and yeah.
25:24Yeah.
25:25Kate, very briefly, we'll give you the final word.
25:28Is this main conservative party in Germany now closer to Merkel or to Donald Trump?
25:33Certainly sliding towards Donald Trump.
25:35And again, you can see that trend across Europe.
25:37That's the thing.
25:38Germany's also influenced and the shift to the far right is very clearly being normalized
25:42by what's going on around Germany and across the Atlantic.
25:44We'll have to leave it there.
25:45Thank you so much for the lively discussion.
25:47I'm Claire Richardson in Berlin.
25:49You've been watching To The Point.
25:50Thank you so much for joining us this week.