US-China Tariff War: ट्रंप के टैरिफ वॉर का Gold-Silver की कीमतों पर कितना असर? आगे कैसी रहेगी सोने-चांदी की चाल? क्या होगा सोना खरीदने का बेस्ट टाइम? कौन-कौन से फैक्टर्स Gold-Silver Prices को Impact करेंगे? कब तक जारी रहेगी सोने-चांदी में रैली? इन सभी सवालों के लिए GoodReturns की Editor Bhawna ने Prithvi Finmart के Director Manoj Kumar Jain से बातचीत की. समझिए टैरिफ वॉर और गोल्ड का पूरा खेल.
#Gold #Silver #GoldPrices #SilverPrices #GoldSilver #TrumpTariffWar #china #tariffs #unitedstates #trump #trumptradewar #tariffwar #tradewar #trump #mexico #canada #goldmarketnews #goldpricetoday #gold24carat #physicalgold #silverprediction #silverpricetoday
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#Gold #Silver #GoldPrices #SilverPrices #GoldSilver #TrumpTariffWar #china #tariffs #unitedstates #trump #trumptradewar #tariffwar #tradewar #trump #mexico #canada #goldmarketnews #goldpricetoday #gold24carat #physicalgold #silverprediction #silverpricetoday
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you are watching Goodreturns.
00:03There have been big events in January and February.
00:06In the US, Trump has taken over the power.
00:08After that, the US Fed meeting has also taken place.
00:11Here in India, the union budget, the most significant event has also taken place.
00:16Although if we talk about the budget, then no decision has been taken on import duty in this,
00:22due to which there was some decline in the prices of gold and silver.
00:26But now after that, a big event is happening that the tariff trade war has started,
00:33which can affect the prices of gold and silver.
00:37So how much will it affect, what will it affect, and what can be the prices of gold and silver in the near future,
00:43we will try to understand all that.
00:45We have with us Manoj Kumar Jain, who is also the director of Prithvi Finmart.
00:49Sir, thank you very much for talking to us.
00:54Sir, look, some big events have happened, and the way Trump has started the tariff war,
01:00although if we talk about Canada and Mexico, then here the 30-day stay has been imposed on tariffs,
01:06but the 10% tariff on China has been kept as it is.
01:11In response, China has also reversed it and imposed tariffs on the US.
01:17In this, sir, what effect are you seeing, what impact will it have on the prices of gold and silver?
01:21As far as the question of impact is concerned, we are seeing a positive impact here,
01:25because since the discussion of imposing tariffs has started and the trade tariff has been imposed,
01:31we are seeing that there was an environment of global uncertainty,
01:35and because of that, the demand for gold and silver is increasing.
01:40So here, as the trade war progresses, it will have global uncertainty,
01:47and because of that, the financial asset classes will be very high there.
01:52So in this way, the demand for gold and silver will increase,
01:57and we are seeing that because of which gold has reached a lifetime high in the international market.
02:02It is very close to $2,900.
02:05If we talk about silver, then the prices have also exceeded $33 here.
02:10So overall, due to the trade war, the demand for gold and silver will increase even more in the coming time.
02:17Exactly, sir, as you said, the first time prices on COMEX have exceeded $2,850 per ounce.
02:25Sir, this rally in the prices of gold and silver will continue for the whole week.
02:32What outlook are you seeing?
02:34See, it will be very difficult to predict in the short term,
02:37the kind of volatility and the statements that are coming out globally,
02:41whether it is from the US or from the European Union or from China,
02:46or from the big economies of the rest of the world.
02:50So it will be very difficult to predict in the short term,
02:53but if we take a long-term perspective, then the trend of gold and silver will remain positive.
03:01If we look at gold in the Indian markets, then the weakness that we are seeing in rupees,
03:06its additional support is being seen in gold and silver prices in the Indian markets.
03:11So in the short term, the trend will remain positive here.
03:14Although we have seen a good rally in gold,
03:18so there may be some technical corrections in the coming days.
03:22But the long-term trend will remain positive, whether it is gold or silver.
03:27In other words, as long as there is a tariff war in precious metals,
03:30the long-term impact will be seen.
03:32Plus, the weakness of the rupee will also be seen here supporting gold.
03:36Sir, if I tell you a little situational-based thing,
03:40that the way the US has given way to Canada and Mexico,
03:46for 30 days, but has given way.
03:48If such a settlement is seen between China and America,
03:52then what will be the impact on the prices of gold and silver?
03:56Look, if there is any trade deal here, then small corrections can come due to it.
04:01But uncertainty will remain, because the deal is given for a month,
04:05whether it is Canada or Mexico.
04:07There they can impose tariffs again.
04:10If there is a trade deal with China and if anything is imposed there,
04:15then they can increase the tariffs there again.
04:18We are also seeing that there are new comments from the US about Iran tomorrow
04:23that sanctions will be restricted there.
04:26And the oil supply of Iran to the countries of the world will be stopped.
04:30Because of this, once again, there was a momentum in energy prices yesterday.
04:36Because of that, inflation will increase.
04:38So that will also support the prices of gold.
04:40So this uncertainty will remain.
04:43At least I believe that this uncertainty is going to remain for the first half of 2025.
04:49Today we have seen that the report of the World Gold Council has also estimated
04:54an increase of about 25% in investment demand.
04:57So it is clearly visible that there will be uncertainty here.
05:01And because of that, the demand for investment will remain in precious metals.
05:05Sir, what other major events are you seeing in the near future
05:08that will affect the commodity market?
05:10Especially if we talk about precious metals.
05:133-4 things will be very important.
05:15First of all, we will have to keep a constant watch on the dollar index movement.
05:18Because whatever statements come from the US, whether it is about the trade war
05:23or about the Russian-Ukrainian war, or about fresh sanctions on Iran,
05:28or about tariffing on the European Union.
05:32So because of that, the movement of the dollar index should be kept an eye on there.
05:37Secondly, the US has started the trade tariff.
05:40After that, in the next month, the US-Fed policy meeting will take place.
05:46So what is the US-Fed's stance on the trade tariff?
05:50We should keep an eye on that.
05:52Thirdly, in the domestic market, the way we are seeing weakness in ruby.
05:56If this weakness increases in the coming time,
05:58then it will also be seen to support the prices of gold and silver here.
06:02So there will be a lot of factors globally.
06:05How much is China's retaliation or is there any trade deal?
06:09So China, dollar index, US-Fed's monetary policy meeting, ruby movement,
06:14all these factors should be kept an eye on in the coming time.
06:17Absolutely.
06:18Sir, although you always say that it is always the right time to invest in gold and silver.
06:24But if we talk about it, because gold is almost at its peak right now.
06:29So in this case, if someone wants to buy gold,
06:32what support level would you like to give?
06:34What will be the best time and what will be the levels?
06:37Here, the traders should wait for a little correction.
06:40But the investors, as I have always said, should keep investing in the form of SIP.
06:44Whatever the level, because gold always gives a positive return in the long run.
06:49So traders can wait for a little correction.
06:52Investors should continue their investment.
06:54As far as the question of support is concerned,
06:56we believe that now in the international market,
06:59I am talking about the comics future, which is trading at around $2,890.
07:07So we will see good support in gold at $2,810.
07:11In that regard, if we talk about the Indian markets,
07:14there will be good support in gold at around $82,000.
07:17So if there are corrections up to Rs. 2,500 from the current level,
07:21then traders should also see an opportunity there.
07:24Investors can keep investing here.
07:26There is an immediate resistance of $2,900 at the top.
07:29If prices rise above that level,
07:31then we believe that prices can be seen at $2,945 and $3,000 in the international market.
07:37In that regard, gold stands above Rs. 84,500 in the Indian markets.
07:42So this can be seen in the short term at Rs. 86,000 and Rs. 88,000.
07:47So here the momentum is positive.
07:49If there is a dip, there will be an opportunity for the trader.
07:52Investors can continue their investment in the form of SIP.
07:55Sir, if we talk about the end of February,
07:58when this month is coming to an end,
08:00then what levels will you give gold and silver?
08:02In gold, I believe that gold can stay anywhere between Rs. 86,000 and Rs. 88,000 till the end of this month.
08:08Because the way the momentum is made here,
08:11Rs. 86,000 is seen in the conservative case.
08:15If there is a trade deal here between China and the US,
08:18due to which corrections come,
08:20then there will be good support at Rs. 82,000 below.
08:23If we talk about silver,
08:25then silver is also an industrial metal along with precious metals.
08:28And silver has underperformed here in comparison to gold.
08:31We believe that a good breakout has been seen here as well.
08:34So in February, silver can go to $36 in the future comics of March.
08:41In that regard, the prices in the Indian markets can test again from Rs. 1,00,000 to Rs. 1,00,000-2,000.
08:48In February, I believe that strength in silver can be seen more than gold.
08:54So if you want to invest in gold and silver,
08:58then traders can also invest in silver.
09:01The range of 94,000-95,000 is a good range in terms of investment.
09:07And above Rs. 1,00,000-1,00,000-2,000 is seen in the short term.
09:11Sir, my next question will be about the sovereign gold bond.
09:14We were waiting in the budget for the government to make some announcement on the scheme.
09:20Because we have been seeing news since last year
09:24and it is being speculated that the government will close the scheme.
09:27Now after the budget, the media briefing was done.
09:29The finance ministry has also given full indications that it will be closed.
09:34So investors are getting a little panicked
09:38that what should they do next.
09:40They were getting 2.5% interest.
09:42Will they get it or not?
09:44So sir, what is your advice to all these investors?
09:48As far as the question of panic is concerned, there is nothing to panic about.
09:52Because the scheme that the Indian government launched,
09:55investors will get the benefits up to the maturity of the scheme.
09:58Now if you want to invest in gold,
10:02and if your corpus is small,
10:04then ETFs of gold are available here.
10:08And the exchanges, whether it is the National Stock Exchange or the Bombay Stock Exchange,
10:13if the ETF is listed there, then you can invest there.
10:17Along with that, there are also mutual funds of gold and silver,
10:20so you can invest there too.
10:22And here you can also buy lump sums and can also do it in the form of SIP.
10:26So the investors who want to invest here or were waiting for the sovereign gold bond,
10:32and if there is no new launch from the government,
10:36or if there is a hint from the Ministry of Finance,
10:41then the ETF of gold and silver is a better option for investors.
10:47And the investors can invest there.
10:50And sir, my last question to you,
10:52which I always ask you,
10:54what is your advice for investors of gold and silver?
10:57For gold and silver, the current moment,
11:00or the current scenario,
11:02the way global uncertainty is formed,
11:04then in your portfolio, give about 15% of gold and silver,
11:09so that it can diversify your portfolio.
11:12And in the challenging situation, it will also give you some positive returns.
11:16So stay invested in gold and silver.
11:18If you have not started investing yet,
11:21then this is also a good time.
11:23You can start investing in gold and silver as an SIP.
11:27And give at least 15% to precious metals in your portfolio.
11:33So you have to give 15% to precious metals.
11:38Thank you very much, Manoj ji, for talking to us.
11:42And for answering all the questions.
11:45So right now, the rally can continue in gold and silver,
11:48that is, our precious metals.
11:50In case there is a trade deal between the US and China,
11:53then we can see a little correction in the market.
11:56But because the demand for safe haven is increasing these days,
12:00then the level of gold and silver can be seen a little high in the coming time.
12:06The opportunity to invest is always good in precious metals.
12:09You can invest in it anytime.
12:11That's all for this video.
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