The IMF may have predicted that the UK will be the fastest-growing European G7 member, but it's not projected to be the fastest-growing European economy overall.
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00:00Which country is set to be the fastest-growing European economy?
00:08Misleading claims are going around on social media, which suggests that the UK is projected
00:13to be the fastest-growing economy in Europe. A raft of posts on X, for example, shows people
00:18celebrating a prediction by the International Monetary Fund that UK GDP will grow by 1.6%
00:24in 2025 ahead of its neighbours. It came as part of the IMF's wider global economic outlook for
00:30the next couple of years, in which it put projected global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026.
00:38Many of the social media posts share a link or screenshot to an article by The Independent,
00:43which originally made the same claim but has now been amended. However,
00:46the claim that the UK is projected to be the fastest-growing European economy is wrong.
00:51The IMF's projections do put UK GDP growth at 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026,
00:59but there are other European countries with better predictions. Specifically, GDP in Spain is
01:04expected to rise by 2.3% and 1.8% this year and next year, respectively. In Poland, it will go up
01:10by 3.5% and 3.3%, and in the Netherlands, it will rise by 1.6% and 1.8%, according to the IMF
01:18projections. What the social media posts should say, and what's reflected in the amended Independent
01:22headline, is that the UK is set to be the fastest-growing major European economy. By major,
01:28they mean among the other European members of the G7, France, Germany and Italy. They're all
01:33expected to grow by less than 1% this year, with France and Germany having a projection of 1.1%
01:39for 2026 and Italy having 0.9%. Following the release of the projection, UK Chancellor Rachel
01:45Reeves herself said that the UK is forecast to be the fastest-growing major European economy
01:51over the next two years, rather than the fastest-growing European economy overall.