Harga emas dunia kembali mencapai titik tertinggi sepanjang masa didorong oleh investor yang mencari aset safe haven, setelah China membalas dengan tarif pada AS sebagai tanggapan terhadap tarif Presiden Donald Trump.
Hingga penutupan pasar Rabu, saham tambang logam seperti ANTAM melesat 3,5% dan menjadi sasaran utama pembelian asing.
Hingga penutupan pasar Rabu, saham tambang logam seperti ANTAM melesat 3,5% dan menjadi sasaran utama pembelian asing.
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TVTranscript
00:00PEMIIRSA
00:05Good morning, PEMIIRSA.
00:06For those of you who have just joined us,
00:08you are watching MarketBuzz,
00:09where in this segment we will discuss a number of sentiments
00:11and also capital market projections
00:13together with analysts.
00:14But before that, we present
00:16a number of information that is the highlight of the market this morning.
00:19Among them, PEMIIRSA, there is the TARA fund,
00:21which is the controller and manager of BUMN
00:23with an asset of up to 10 trillion rupiah.
00:28Then there is the 2024 economic growth of more than 5%
00:31and it is estimated to remain stable and not inferior to neighboring countries
00:34such as Singapore and Malaysia.
00:36There is also the sentiment of PEMIIRSA
00:38to exceed 3.57% per day
00:40and become the top net buy asing in trading yesterday.
00:43Is this also related to the sentiment
00:46from the United States about the tariff war?
00:51From the Spotlight market,
00:53PEMIIRSA invites you to see the economic agenda.
00:55Among them, there is a moving transaction
00:57from South Korea in December.
00:59IHK Vietnam, Foreign Currency Investment Vietnam,
01:02King of Trade Vietnam,
01:04IHK Inti, PEMIIRSA from Thailand.
01:08Then there is the governor's decree from FED,
01:11which is Jefferson from the United States,
01:13the decree of the FOMC member Bowman,
01:15claiming early unemployment in the United States.
01:17From Europe, there is European retail sales
01:19in December and also month-on-month.
01:22PEMIIRSA ASEAN Stock Exchange Update
01:24can be seen on the screen this morning.
01:27If yesterday the IHSG moved in a negative territory,
01:30is Asia, which is positive,
01:32this morning can also be a trigger
01:34that affects the IHSG to be opened in a positive territory?
01:37Nikkei Japan rose 0.47%,
01:39Sir Times rose 0.48%,
01:42KOSPI South Korea rose 0.53%,
01:45Hang Seng Hong Kong rose 0.44%.
01:48The strength of the ASEAN Stock Exchange this morning
01:51is almost the same.
01:59In this segment, PEMIIRSA, we will discuss
02:01with Sulisthina Primasuci,
02:03Head of Investor Relations,
02:04Independent Head of Security.
02:06Good morning, Ms. Sulis.
02:08Good morning, Ms. Prisa.
02:10Thank you very much for joining this morning, Ms. Sulis.
02:12Let's go straight to the information
02:14that is the highlight of this market.
02:17This time around, there are stocks
02:20that have been released again
02:22after BNI, BCA,
02:24now there is Mandiri.
02:26How is your analysis of stocks
02:28that grew over 1% throughout 2024?
02:34Okay, so indeed for the BNRI energy
02:36in 2024,
02:38it is the lowest growth rate
02:40compared to BCA and BNI
02:42that have been released first.
02:45This has also been reflected
02:47with the price of BNRI
02:49in the last quarter
02:50has dropped by more than 10%.
02:52Because the results of energy
02:54plus about 1.3% year-on-year
02:58below investor expectations.
03:00Because looking at the results
03:02last November,
03:03BNRI is still recorded
03:05to grow by about 4%.
03:07So maybe the investor range
03:10can be raised by 3-4%.
03:12But it turns out that the realization is only 1.3%.
03:14That's why it was negatively responded
03:16by the market players
03:18in the last few months.
03:20Okay, that means Mandiri,
03:21which grew 1.31% this year
03:24to become 55.78
03:26or so-called 55.8 trillion rupiah
03:31tends to not meet
03:33Ms. Sulis' expectations, right?
03:35Yes, that's right.
03:36So compared to investor expectations,
03:39it is still below expectations.
03:41Because there is also a pressure
03:43in the performance of BNRI,
03:45especially in the fourth quarter.
03:47There is an increase in flower load,
03:49and also operational load.
03:51So the net interest margin
03:53or NIM from BNRI
03:55is only around 5-15%.
03:59Okay, and this figure is also
04:01lower than BNI,
04:04which was 2.7%.
04:06Okay, so what should be anticipated
04:09in the mid-release of Kinerja
04:11from Mandiri?
04:13Is this really below expectations?
04:15Or what is it like?
04:17Actually, in terms of consensus,
04:21it is still in line.
04:23Still in line.
04:24Still in line,
04:25but the movement and performance
04:27tend to stagnate
04:29compared to last year.
04:31So in 2025,
04:33it will certainly be a challenge
04:35for BNRI, especially
04:37because the interest rate of LDR
04:39is already quite high.
04:41So be careful,
04:43but what can be used
04:45is the opportunity from the final dividend,
04:47which is a little more,
04:48around March,
04:49the dividend distribution for the big bank.
04:51Okay, so the focus can be shifted
04:54to the dividend from Bang Mandiri,
04:57considering that this Bang Mandiri
04:59dividend payout ratio or dividend ratio
05:01in the last five years
05:02has always been maintained at 60%.
05:04How interesting is the sentiment
05:06of this dividend for investors
05:09who are interested in investing their funds
05:12in Bang Mandiri?
05:14Okay, if we look at the results
05:17of BNRI's Kinerja in 2024,
05:22we can see that the management
05:24will plan to maintain
05:27the DPR at 60%.
05:29This is certainly still an interesting thing,
05:31especially since BNRI fell by around 10%.
05:34Estimating the dividend yield,
05:36if the DPR is raised by 60%,
05:38the dividend yield is around 6%,
05:41or the size is around 328.73 per share.
05:45This is still an interesting thing,
05:47so for now,
05:48it can still be monitored for the accumulation
05:50of the dividend announcement
05:52and also the annual RUPS,
05:54which will probably be released
05:56when the time comes.
05:58Okay, if we talk about the opportunity
06:02to buy Bang Mandiri shares,
06:05what is your analysis like?
06:08Okay, if we look at the opportunity,
06:10especially if we look at the technical
06:13of the BNRI movement,
06:14this is already included in the classic support area
06:18for all investors.
06:19So in the range area,
06:21around the lowest level,
06:225,400 to 5,500,
06:25it can be the level of purchase accumulation
06:28to take advantage of the momentum of the dividend.
06:31So the lowest level of the classic
06:33is the lowest level that can be said
06:36to be a strong support?
06:39Yes, that's right,
06:40in the range of around 5,400.
06:425,400.
06:43And 5,400 is the lowest level
06:47in the last year, right?
06:49Yes.
06:50Okay, so it can be bought at 5,400
06:53and what is the target for Bang Mandiri?
06:55Okay, for Bang Mandiri's own target,
06:58I try to target first
07:00at 6,000,
07:026,000 to 6,100.
07:046,000 to 6,100.
07:06Okay.
07:07If we look at the last week
07:09or the last month,
07:11Asing Cenderung did a net sale
07:13reaching 499 billion in one month,
07:17while in the last trade,
07:18it was still at 67.16 billion rupiah.
07:23Should we pay attention
07:24when a big cap emittance
07:27is still on sale?
07:29Okay, this is still a concern
07:32for all investors
07:34because overall,
07:36all big bank shares
07:37are corrected alternately.
07:39Even when there is a sentiment
07:41of corporate action,
07:43especially buyback
07:44that will be done by BRI and BNI,
07:46the price of the stock remains low.
07:48It means that there are other concerns
07:50from investors,
07:51especially foreign investors
07:52who continue to dominate
07:54their sales in the last few months.
07:56Okay, any tips
07:57other than what you said
07:58about the positions
07:59to make a buyback in BMI?
08:01Is there any tips
08:02that we need to keep
08:03medium to long?
08:06Okay, for medium to long,
08:08you can enter it gradually.
08:10So, don't all-in first,
08:13but try to enter it gradually
08:15for the buying level
08:18in the first support,
08:19second support.
08:20So, there are different portions
08:22for how we enter it.
08:25Okay, limit the risk
08:26at level 5,400.
08:28Correct.
08:29Okay, don't let it go down again
08:31because there is a chance
08:32to weaken further
08:33after 5,400
08:34or the lowest level
08:35in the last year
08:36is broken down.
08:38Okay.
08:39In addition to the sentiment
08:40about the buyback
08:41from the banks,
08:42and also the potential
08:43of the dividend,
08:44there is an in-between.
08:45This can be said
08:48to be official
08:50by the government
08:51through the rules
08:52that have been verified.
08:54And the official fund
08:56of UCDPR is verified,
08:57RUU, BUMN,
08:58become the law.
09:00So, how?
09:01Your projection fund
09:03will manage
09:04seven large BUMNs
09:05in the first stage.
09:06There is Pertamina,
09:07then if we talk
09:08about the emittance
09:09from the mentioned
09:10in the Indonesian Stock Exchange,
09:11there is Antam, PTBA,
09:13there is TINS,
09:14Banking first,
09:15Bank Mandiri also enters,
09:16BRI, Telkom,
09:18and there is also BBNI.
09:19How will it affect
09:21or how
09:24do you as an analyst
09:25observe the impact
09:26from the presence
09:27and in-between
09:28to the emittance?
09:30Okay, if we look at
09:31the legislation,
09:34this will certainly
09:35be a positive step
09:37actually,
09:38if it happens,
09:40the journey,
09:42the implementation will be successful,
09:43because it will assess
09:45the investment prospects
09:46from the BUMN
09:47and private companies
09:49related and supporting
09:50the achievement of
09:52Indonesia's economic growth
09:53which is better,
09:54because we all know
09:55the target from
09:56President Prabowo
09:57is economic growth
09:58up to 8%.
09:59This is one of the steps
10:00taken by the government,
10:02but at the moment
10:03the market players
10:04have not yet caught
10:05the positive sentiment
10:06because they are still waiting
10:07for the implementation.
10:08So,
10:09the concern
10:10of Dandantara
10:13is how
10:14the implementation will be,
10:15if the implementation
10:17goes well,
10:19the company management
10:20is good,
10:21there is also transparency,
10:23this is certainly
10:24a very positive thing,
10:25but on the contrary,
10:26if the implementation
10:27does not have
10:29political intervention,
10:33then the management
10:35is too concentrated,
10:36this will certainly
10:37have a negative impact
10:38because it will directly
10:39impact the blue chip
10:42emittance,
10:43especially like banking.
10:45Okay, not yet read,
10:46but what is expected
10:47is the energy
10:48from the banks,
10:50especially in this area
10:51and other emittance
10:52in Bursa Efek
10:53which will be managed
10:55by Dandantara.
10:57It will be better, of course,
10:59but is there any hope
11:00to see the former chairman
11:02of the OJK,
11:03that is,
11:04Muliaman Haddad,
11:06who is given the authority
11:07to be the head
11:08of power investment management
11:09in Dandantara?
11:12Okay,
11:13if you look at the opportunities,
11:15of course there are
11:16positive opportunities,
11:17but we are still waiting,
11:19what is the next step?
11:21The management,
11:22the implementation,
11:23because this is actually
11:24just the beginning
11:25for the governance of Dandantara
11:27to become the manager of BUMN.
11:29If indeed the future
11:30is getting more positive,
11:31of course the market
11:33will also respond
11:34positively.
11:35Okay,
11:36it means it's still
11:37a bit easy,
11:38but optimistic
11:40that it will be more positive
11:42with the existence of Dandantara.
11:44Okay,
11:45how is the recommendation
11:46for other partners?
11:47Then yesterday
11:48there was also Antam,
11:50which experienced a significant
11:513.5% boom.
11:53Is there an impact
11:54from the tariff war
11:56between China and the United States?
11:58We will review it
11:59in the next segment.
12:00And Mrs. Sulis,
12:01after the break,
12:02stay with us.
12:03Thank you,
12:04Mrs. Mirza,
12:05for being with us again
12:06and we will still
12:07discuss with Mrs. Sulis
12:08Tina Primasuci,
12:09Head of Investor Relations
12:10from Mandiri Utama Sekuritas.
12:11Okay,
12:12honoring the opening
12:13of the trade
12:14this morning,
12:15Bang Mandiri,
12:16if we continue
12:17the discussion,
12:18discussing about
12:19the new labor
12:20that was just released,
12:21this Bang Mandiri
12:22is right at 5,400.
12:24When you said,
12:25pay attention to Bang Mandiri
12:26above 5,400,
12:27below 5,400,
12:28it's better to avoid it first.
12:30It means wait and see first, right?
12:32Right,
12:33because this is
12:34at the determination point,
12:35at the support area.
12:36Okay,
12:37below 5,400,
12:38maybe
12:39wait until
12:40the closing of
12:41session 2 today,
12:42or session 1
12:43if the break
12:44does not succeed,
12:45or the break below
12:46is adjusted
12:47or how?
12:48Okay,
12:49if you look at it,
12:50maybe we wait
12:51until the closing
12:52of the first session
12:53today.
12:54Tunggal Lemang
12:55is actually
12:56maintained at
12:57level 5,375
12:58to 5,350.
12:59You can still
13:00buy it
13:01for speculative.
13:02Because this decrease
13:03is quite interesting
13:04for the big caps
13:05stocks,
13:06especially
13:07big banks,
13:08the decline
13:09in the last
13:10week
13:11is already
13:12approaching
13:13the level
13:14of the
13:1515%.
13:16Of course
13:17there will be
13:18technical rebound.
13:19So,
13:20in the short term,
13:21it will benefit
13:22the momentum of
13:23dividends as well.
13:24Okay,
13:25that means
13:26independent banks,
13:27which usually
13:28the blue chips
13:29banking is
13:30for medium help,
13:31currently
13:32only benefit
13:33technical rebound
13:34first and
13:35also dividends,
13:36right?
13:37Right.
13:38Okay,
13:39below 5,400,
13:40it's better
13:41to just
13:42speculative buy
13:43with a limit
13:44above 5,400
13:45which is
13:46what Ms. Sulis said
13:47is the classic
13:48support.
13:49If it can be
13:50above that,
13:51it's interesting
13:52to buy again
13:53from independent banks.
13:54We leave
13:55independent banks,
13:56we go to Antam
13:57yesterday,
13:58also drew attention
13:59with an increase
14:00of 3.5%
14:01in the middle of
14:02the gold price
14:03which is also
14:04at the highest
14:05level,
14:06global gold.
14:07How is your analysis
14:08for stocks
14:09based on
14:10gold,
14:11like Antam?
14:12If we look at
14:13Antam,
14:14this is also affected
14:15by the increase
14:16in gold prices
14:17which again
14:18marked the highest
14:19price or
14:20record throughout
14:21the year,
14:22where the
14:23closing of gold
14:24commodities is
14:25at the level
14:26of around
14:272,867.2.
14:28This is certainly
14:29a positive catalyst
14:30for gold-emitted
14:31stocks and
14:32also Antam
14:33there is
14:34business diversification
14:35too,
14:36it's on the
14:37metal,
14:38so for Antam
14:39itself,
14:40the increase
14:41yesterday and
14:42the increase
14:43in foreign
14:44investors
14:45which is
14:46quite large,
14:47it can be
14:48an interesting
14:49thing to support
14:50the movement
14:51of Antam
14:52stock prices
14:53for further
14:54strengthening.
14:55Okay,
14:56if we talk
14:57about
14:58metal stocks
14:59like Antam,
15:00in the short
15:01term,
15:02it also
15:03benefits the
15:04risk of
15:05the current
15:06price war
15:07but it's
15:08a bit warm
15:09and then
15:10cold again
15:11so for
15:12now,
15:13it's still
15:14a short-term
15:15momentum
15:16first.
15:17A short-term
15:18momentum
15:19first.
15:20Well,
15:21if you look at
15:22net foreign
15:23buy in
15:24the trade
15:25yesterday,
15:26Antam
15:27was in
15:28the first
15:29position
15:30with a
15:31volume of
15:3287.4
15:33million shares
15:34with a
15:35value of
15:36124.5
15:37billion
15:38rupiah
15:39and
15:40net foreign
15:41buy
15:4235.2
15:43billion rupiah
15:44up 3.57
15:45percent.
15:46Is Antam
15:47one of the
15:48shares that
15:49you recommend
15:50from the
15:51metal stock
15:52or is
15:53there
15:54something
15:55more
15:56interesting?
15:57Okay,
15:58if we look
15:59at the
16:00positive
16:01sentiments,
16:02especially
16:03from the
16:04commodity
16:05price,
16:06then there
16:07is also
16:08the momentum
16:09momentum
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