In a surprising turn of events, exit polls for the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections show BJP poised for a remarkable comeback, with projections of 42-50 seats in the poll of polls. AAP, once dominant, faces a rude shock with just 21-29 seats predicted. Join Keshav Karna and Pankaj Mishra from OneIndia as they break down the numbers and analyse how BJP's resurgence has shaken the political landscape of Delhi.
#DelhiElections #ExitPoll2025 #BJP #AAP #ElectionAnalysis #OneIndia #PollOfPolls #DelhiPolitics #Oneindia
#DelhiElections #ExitPoll2025 #BJP #AAP #ElectionAnalysis #OneIndia #PollOfPolls #DelhiPolitics #Oneindia
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NewsTranscript
00:00Well, the poll battle is over and the market of speculation is soaring up and we have the
00:08initial, the starting data of exit poll agencies.
00:12Let us see what is there for the political parties fighting the battle in Delhi.
00:20Let us start with Metris.
00:22We have seen the data of Metris earlier as well.
00:24Metris has given 32-37 seats to AAP, 35-40 seats to BJP, 0-1 seats to Congress and no
00:34seats to others.
00:37After Metris, a new agency is joined by People's Pulse.
00:41Our partner Pankaj will tell you.
00:43People's Pulse, if you would take a closer look here, 10-19 seats.
00:47I would say that they are proving to be insufficient.
00:52You have got very few seats here.
00:55BJP has got 51-60, unprecedented numbers which were expected from AAP till last year.
01:03And then Congress has got 0 seats.
01:05Keshav, you were saying, how did People's Pulse achieve this number?
01:08Yes, absolutely.
01:09Analysts are working in our back-end.
01:12They have told us an equation.
01:15We were discussing how it can be possible.
01:18How can it be a 360-degree turn?
01:21Last time, BJP was at AAP.
01:26How can it be a 360-degree turn?
01:29Pankaj, it is a mathematical equation.
01:31And it is very interesting.
01:33Right now, BJP's vote share is 39% in Delhi.
01:44And AAP's vote share is 54%.
01:48And Congress' vote share is only 4%.
01:52Still, 2% is left.
01:54How can these numbers be true?
01:58In this, AAP's vote share fell.
02:01BJP and Congress' vote share increased.
02:05Only then these numbers are possible.
02:07Now, how much did it increase?
02:08BJP's vote share increased from 39% to 44%.
02:14It increased a lot.
02:16It increased from 39% to 44%.
02:19And AAP's vote share fell below 40%.
02:24AAP's vote share fell below 40%.
02:28But till now, AAP's vote share is 54%.
02:32It should fall below 40%.
02:34Okay.
02:36Now, Congress' vote share is 4%.
02:40If it increases to more than 15%,
02:43then these numbers will be possible.
02:45Now, Pankaj...
02:46But here, in seat share...
02:48That's the question.
02:49That's what we were discussing last time.
02:51In case Congress is improving its vote share,
02:58then where are the seats in their account?
03:00Absolutely.
03:01The number of seats is not the same.
03:02If you look at it,
03:03there is not much difference between others and Congress.
03:06Times of Navbharat is an addition.
03:08JVC has given two seats.
03:10If we consider Alka Lamba and Sandeep Dixit's seats,
03:14then too, there won't be much difference.
03:17Yes, there can be a difference in this situation.
03:20If we see a mixed verdict here.
03:23So, Pankaj, if I follow my instinct,
03:27I think the numbers of Metris,
03:29in the final result, we can see something like this.
03:32This data of People's Pulse,
03:34I don't know which People's Pulse they have checked.
03:37Because Aam Aadmi Party will fall below 40%.
03:40In Delhi, what we have covered so far,
03:42and we have gone together many times,
03:45then such a situation is not visible
03:47that 40 out of 100 people should not vote for Aam Aadmi Party.
03:50I am not disclosing here what is in Delhi's heart.
03:53Keshav, very quickly,
03:54these numbers are on our screen for you.
03:56I would like to tell you the number of PMAR.
03:59In PMAR, Aam Aadmi Party is at 21-31,
04:02BJP is at 39-49,
04:04Congress' account is at 0-1,
04:06and there is no place for others in the Delhi Vidhan Samha.
04:09I think Congress is also treating like others.
04:12Their account will open or not,
04:14it cannot be said.
04:16Absolutely.
04:17We will come to Poll of Polls,
04:19but for the time being,
04:20Navbharat, JVC, 22-31,
04:22Aam Aadmi Party, 49-45.
04:24Keshav, I would like to discuss this whole belt with you,
04:28very quickly.
04:29See, the people of Delhi,
04:31first of all, they have got used to it,
04:34and they have seen Aam Aadmi Party working.
04:37And many people also vote in an emotive way.
04:40Delhi is the Delhi of Dilwale,
04:42they work with their heart.
04:43Along with Arvind Kejriwal,
04:44many leaders of Aam Aadmi Party
04:46were first pushed to jail,
04:48they were even released.
04:49Still, many accusations were put on them,
04:52they were thrown out of the house.
04:54What do you think,
04:56BJP must have done such a turnaround?
04:59It has never happened even in power.
05:01Definitely, Pankaj.
05:02I am rounding up some numbers here.
05:05See these numbers,
05:0635-40,
05:0839-49,
05:1039-45.
05:12Yes.
05:13These are still believable.
05:15But what is coming,
05:1751-60,
05:20wildest dream,
05:21I cannot think about this number.
05:23I was saying,
05:24is it more loyal than the king?
05:25Definitely.
05:26To bring it closer to BJP.
05:28Yes, definitely.
05:29And see, Pankaj,
05:31Aam Aadmi Party has a face,
05:33Arvind Kejriwal.
05:34Yes.
05:35They have Jan Kalyan Gadi Yojana,
05:38you can turn those Yojanas into anything,
05:40you can call them freebies,
05:42you can call them freebies,
05:43you can call them freebies,
05:44you can call them freebies,
05:45you can call them freebies,
05:46you can call them freebies,
05:47you can call them freebies,
05:48after that,
05:49all the things,
05:51Yes, infrastructure,
05:52the Delhi Government has been in question,
05:54so I can agree that
05:55the number of matrices,
05:57it can be plus or minus 5 or above.
06:00Can be close to this.
06:01It can.
06:02But I don't think
06:04that such things have happened,
06:05such a miraculous event has not happened
06:06in this election,
06:07which would turn the tide.
06:09BJP so much.
06:10And you talked about the Chief Minister face,
06:11BJP has not even announced that yet.
06:12It has not been announced.
06:13And if the Aam Aadmi Party
06:15has anti-incumbency,
06:17There is an anti-incumbency obviously after 10 years of governance, but yes, the support
06:32of the people, that is also there because of the political drama that we have seen,
06:37not recently, but from the days of Lok Sabha elections.
06:41We'll be back with more analysis.
06:43Thanks for watching.
06:44Don't miss out.
06:45Log on to OneIndia.com for more updates.