Political risk analyst Ross Feingold explains what's behind a mass effort to recall a large number of opposition lawmakers in Taiwan's legislature.
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00:00What exactly is behind these recall campaigns?
00:04We have to keep in mind that there's an extraordinary amount of partisanship or frankly bad blood
00:10between the Democratic Progressive Party on one hand and the Chinese Nationalist Party or KMT
00:15and the Taiwan People's Party on the other hand.
00:18They simply do not get along.
00:20And it's really gone further than the normal opposition versus governing party type of disputes
00:26you would see in a democratic parliament.
00:29So there's an extraordinary dislike between the two sides.
00:32It emanates from some of the laws that the majority in the legislative UN,
00:36which is a combination of the KMT and the TPP legislators.
00:41They have a majority and they pass laws that they don't want,
00:44regardless of how the DPP legislators feel about it.
00:48And how do you see this playing out? How likely are these recall bids to succeed?
00:52Very, very difficult.
00:55There are a few examples of successful recalls in Taiwan at different levels of government,
01:00such as a mayor, such as a legislator.
01:03But there are also numerous examples of recall campaigns that fail.
01:07The hurdles are very high, starting with the signature petitions
01:10and then getting enough people to turn out to vote on a random day.
01:16That might be sometime in the spring.
01:18That's assuming the signature hurdles are satisfied.
01:22And it's just very hard to turn out enough people to fulfill the requirement
01:26for the minimum number of voters who have to pass the recall, who have to vote yes.
01:32This is the latest drama in months of turbulent politics here in Taiwan.
01:37Just why is Taiwan politics being so dramatic and so divisive at the moment?
01:43Well, before the election in January of 2024,
01:47I said that there would be chaos if the president comes from one party
01:51and the majority in the legislative UN comes from a different party or the current situation parties
01:57because the KMT and the TPP combined have a majority and they've been cooperating on most legislation.
02:03And that's what happened.
02:05We have a chaotic situation where the executive branch plus the presidency are from the DPP
02:11and the KMT and the TPP form a majority in the legislative UN.
02:15So in the legislative UN, they could call in ministers, for example, for interpolation and grill them.
02:21And more importantly, they could pass whatever laws they want because they form a majority.
02:26And they could also reject nominees to certain government bodies if they wish to do so.
02:32So we have this situation where we really have, I would say,
02:36close to a deadlock between the executive branch on the one hand and the legislative UN on the other.
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