Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral berencana untuk memberikan porsi hingga 60% pembangunan pembangkit listrik di Tanah Air di masa mendatang kepada pengembang listrik swasta atau Independent Power Producer (IPP). Kebijakan ini tertuang dalam Rencana Usaha Penyediaaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) PLN Tahun 2025 hingga 2034, di mana penambahan pembangkit listrik ditargetkan mencapai 71 gigawatt dengan 70% kapasitas merupakan energi baru terbarukan atau EBT.
Menteri ESDM Bahlil Lahadalia mengatakan, strategi ini sejalan dengan RUPTL 2024-2034 dengan target penambahan kapasitas listrik sebesar 71 Gigawatt. Sehingga nantinya, mayoritas pembangunan akan diberikan kepada swasta atau IPP. Jadi, selain mempercepat pelaksanaan proyek EBT, juga dapat meringankan beban PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) atau PLN, dari sisi arus kas dan investasi strategis di masa mendatang. Sementara itu, PLN telah memperkirakan, bahwa investasi yang dibutuhkan untuk meningkatkan kapasitas listrik terpasang sebesar 71 Gigawatt hingga 2034 mencapai Rp2.400 triliun.
Menteri ESDM Bahlil Lahadalia mengatakan, strategi ini sejalan dengan RUPTL 2024-2034 dengan target penambahan kapasitas listrik sebesar 71 Gigawatt. Sehingga nantinya, mayoritas pembangunan akan diberikan kepada swasta atau IPP. Jadi, selain mempercepat pelaksanaan proyek EBT, juga dapat meringankan beban PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) atau PLN, dari sisi arus kas dan investasi strategis di masa mendatang. Sementara itu, PLN telah memperkirakan, bahwa investasi yang dibutuhkan untuk meningkatkan kapasitas listrik terpasang sebesar 71 Gigawatt hingga 2034 mencapai Rp2.400 triliun.
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TVTranscript
00:00Yes, hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Directly from the IDX channel studio in Jakarta, I am Prasetyo Wibowo, back in the
00:27market review, which will deal with the issues that are the driving force of the economy in the water.
00:32You can watch our live streaming on IDXchannel.com and let's just start the market review in full.
00:47The government plans to provide a portion of the addition of electricity generators up to 60%
00:52to the development of private electricity or IPP, where the policy is invested
00:56in the planning of the energy supply business or RUPTLPLN in 2025-2034.
01:10The government plans to provide a portion of the addition of electricity generators up to 60%
01:15to the development of private electricity or IPP, where the policy is invested
01:22in the planning of the energy supply business or RUPTLPLN in 2025-2034,
01:30where the addition of electricity generators is targeted to reach 71 gigawatts with 70% capacity
01:36of renewable energy or EBP.
01:39Minister of Energy, Infrastructure and Mining, Bahlil Adalia, said this strategy is in line with RUPTL2024-2034
01:47with the target of increasing the electricity capacity to 71 gigawatts,
01:51so that later the majority of the development will be given to private or IPP.
01:55So, in addition to accelerating the implementation of the EBT project, it can also reduce the burden of the
02:00electricity companies of the renewable energy or PLN countries from the side of cash flow and strategic investment in the future.
02:07We also report that in accordance with the President's order, we recommend a new development
02:12that will be developed because it will be given a large portion to the private sector, IPP.
02:16So, 71 gigawatts is the largest portion, about 60%, we will supply to the private sector.
02:25But a credible private sector, a private sector that is in line with the government,
02:30not a private sector that creates additional distance outside what the government does.
02:34Meanwhile, the RUPTLPLN-Persero has estimated that the investment needed to increase the
02:40electricity capacity to 71 gigawatts by 2034 will reach Rp2,400 trillion.
02:48Jakarta, Devir Wansyah, IDX Channel.
02:56Yes, welcome to discuss our topic this time.
02:58Private companies get a 60% portion to build electricity generators.
03:02We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Fabi Tumiwa.
03:05He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Social Services Reform.
03:09Hello, Mr. Fabi, how are you?
03:11Hello, Mr. Pras, how are you? Thank you.
03:15Thank you for your time.
03:18Before discussing further, Mr. Fabi, first of all,
03:20Mr. Fabi, regarding the development of electricity generators in Indonesia,
03:24where is Indonesia at the moment? Please.
03:28Yes, if we look at the data from the government itself,
03:31from the SDM data, from the PLN data,
03:33we do increase the capacity of generators quite a lot.
03:36Today, there are more than 90 gigawatts of electricity capacity.
03:42Although the biggest increase in recent times
03:47comes from captive power.
03:50Meanwhile, from the PLN, it is increasing,
03:55but still below what was planned in RUPTL 2021-2030.
04:05We are still using RUPTL 2021-2030.
04:08So, if we look at it, indeed, since 2021,
04:15during COVID-19, there are several projects that must be postponed.
04:22Postponed, and even the operation period was postponed.
04:27Because, and this is a PLTU project,
04:31which is part of the 35,000 megawatt program
04:37created by Mr. Jokowi in 2015.
04:41But then, we know that for 10 years,
04:51Mr. Jokowi's era, the economic growth target was 17%,
04:57which later became the basis of the electricity power plan
05:00for the 35,000 megawatt program.
05:02Actually, it was not achieved.
05:04The average economic growth was 5%.
05:06And this is because the electricity power plan was planned at 7%,
05:10with an economic growth of 7%,
05:13to be included in the electricity power plan,
05:16but it turns out that the growth was only 5%.
05:18Then we see that there is actually an overcapacity.
05:21Worsened by the condition during COVID-19,
05:25where the demand for electricity dropped drastically, even to minus.
05:30So then, at that time,
05:32PLN tried to postpone several power plants,
05:37and most of them started to enter in 2023-2024,
05:42after being postponed in 2021-2022.
05:44One of them, for example, was inaugurated a few weeks ago,
05:48by President Prabowo,
05:50which is the PLTGU Jawa I,
05:52built by the consortium of Pertah Minah and Sojus.
05:57Yes, Mr. Fabi, then the focus of the government itself
05:59is still related to the development of electricity generation from clean energy,
06:03in the sense of EBT in the future?
06:05Yes, if we look at it, there are significant changes
06:11in the direction of our electricity development.
06:14And this started, for example, in 2021,
06:18when Indonesia made a commitment
06:22to achieve net zero emissions in 2060 or earlier.
06:25This has been said, and then,
06:27the Percres 112-2022 came up,
06:31which then prohibited PLN to build a new PLTU.
06:36Well, with the target to achieve decarbonization
06:41for the electricity sector,
06:44it started to be seen in the 2021 RUPTL,
06:48which I mentioned earlier.
06:5051% of the new electricity capacity planning
06:58comes from renewable energy.
07:00So, of the total 40 gigawatts planned by PLN in the 2021-2030 RUPTL,
07:0621 gigawatts come from renewable energy,
07:10which was built from 2001-2030.
07:13This is actually until the end of 2025.
07:18Later, if you follow the plan,
07:21there should be an additional 10 gigawatts,
07:24at least the capacity of the new renewable energy,
07:27even though the reality is not like that.
07:31Well, then it was added with Astacita,
07:35then the direction of the President,
07:37and this was said by President Prabowo at KTT APEC and G20,
07:43that Indonesia will end coal 15 years from now
07:47and achieve 100% of renewable energy.
07:50We also see that the commitment to achieve net zero
07:55is actually stronger.
07:57And if in the speech that was delivered,
08:01in the RUPTL that will be arranged later,
08:05will increase the portion of renewable energy.
08:10Based on 70% of the 70 gigawatts planned,
08:14will come from renewable energy.
08:17Well, that will be included in the RUPTL-PLN in 2025-2023,
08:22if you say from 2021-2030, yes, 2034.
08:26The connection with the name of this electricity is targeted at 71 gigawatts,
08:30while 70% of the capacity is renewable energy or EBT.
08:35Well, this is indeed a bigger focus,
08:38so how about the preparation and the portion of 60% to the private sector?
08:45Yes, so if we look at the RUPTL that was delivered,
08:50it is the planning of the supply of electricity by the PLN,
08:54which took 10 years.
08:56And the RUPTL was repeatedly reviewed,
09:04and then modified according to its development.
09:08Why? Because the point is that the RUPTL must be able to provide
09:15a growing demand for electricity.
09:17Well, in the next 10 years, that will be the basis.
09:22PLN is only one of the existing RUPTLs.
09:26Because in addition to the PLN, there are also more than, if I'm not mistaken,
09:30there are 50 business areas outside the PLN.
09:34But even though the PLN is the largest,
09:36about 75% of the electricity supply is from business areas.
09:43Okay, Mr. Fabi.
09:44Is the policy and momentum already correct?
09:46How is the preparation of business owners or the IPP itself?
09:49We will discuss this in the next segment.
09:51And Mr. Mirsa, make sure you are still with us.
10:03Mr. Mirsa, the government has an ambitious target
10:05to make a transition to new and renewable energy.
10:08But unfortunately, although it has great potential,
10:12the use of renewable energy in Indonesia is still relatively low.
10:20The government so far has an ambitious target
10:24to make a transition to new and renewable energy or EBT.
10:28This is also supported by Indonesia's new renewable energy potential
10:32of 3,687 gigawatts.
10:36But unfortunately, although it has great potential,
10:39the use of renewable energy in the water is still very low.
10:43Sub-coordinator of the EBT Cooperation, Director Anika EBT,
10:46Directorate General EBT KE,
10:48Ministry of Energy, Space and Mining, Ira Ayutthaya Herdia, said,
10:51currently EBT use is only around 0.3%.
10:55Meanwhile, the achievement of renewable energy for EBT
10:57in the third quarter of 2024 is only 13.3%.
11:01And based on the Ministry of Energy, Space and Mining's report,
11:04from the potential of solar energy reaching 3,294 megawatts,
11:09its use has just reached 728 megawatts or around 0.728 gigawatts.
11:15Meanwhile, the use of hydro energy has just reached 6,698 megawatts
11:21or around 6.69 gigawatts of hydro energy potential of 95 gigawatts.
11:28This is a very large potential for renewable energy
11:32and its potential can reach more than 3,000 gigawatts,
11:41where the biggest contribution is solar energy,
11:46which also reaches more than 3,200 gigawatts.
11:51Then it is supplemented with wind energy, hydro, sea, bioenergy and also global warming.
11:58And its use is currently still compared to its potential,
12:04because its potential is indeed very large,
12:06its use is only 0.3%.
12:11Meanwhile, overall, the total potential of renewable energy in Indonesia
12:16is 3,687 gigawatts and has just been used up to 13,846 megawatts
12:24or around 13.84 gigawatts.
12:29Jakarta, IDX Channel.
12:54In 2024, we can see that the targets set by the government
12:58while the realization of the targets are rarely met.
13:05In 2023, the target was 13.1%, the target was 17.9%,
13:10then the realization was 13.1%,
13:13while in 2024, it was 14.1%, while the target was 19.5%.
13:19Next, we will discuss the potential and benefits of renewable energy.
13:25There is solar, then sea waves, wind, bioenergy, then water and global warming.
13:33These are some of the potentials of clean energy that can be used by Indonesia.
13:40Let's continue our discussion with Mr. Fabi Tomiwa, Executive Director of IESR.
13:46Mr. Fabi, we will continue.
13:47What can you explain about the biggest challenge of the application
13:52or utilization of renewable energy in Indonesia?
13:56So far, it's only 0.3%, right?
13:59As we can see, Indonesia already has a target.
14:02Based on the national agreement,
14:04we should reach 23% of renewable energy by the end of 2025.
14:09And as I just said,
14:11the target is still not in line with the trajectory.
14:16For example, in 2024, the target should be 19.5%.
14:19This year, it's 23%.
14:22But at the end of last year, it reached 14%.
14:25This actually shows that
14:31the increase in the capacity of our renewable energy is far below the planned.
14:38This is what needs to be evaluated.
14:41If I look at it, the main problem is
14:44because of the minimal investment from the private sector,
14:49which is expected to be able to finance the development of renewable energy infrastructure.
14:55Whether it's a power plant or storage, for example.
14:59That's what I mean.
15:00And if we look at the last few years,
15:04the investment for renewable energy has never reached the target.
15:08So every year, the government sets an investment target.
15:15But if we look at it, every year it's not achieved.
15:20Especially for renewable energy.
15:21And this, in my opinion, should be an evaluation.
15:25Why is Indonesia not interesting?
15:28And indeed, compared to our neighboring countries,
15:33which are heavily invested in renewable energy,
15:37we can say the Philippines, Vietnam,
15:41even countries like Malaysia and Singapore,
15:45as well as Thailand,
15:47have quite a lot of investment in renewable energy.
15:52Indonesia is relatively behind.
15:55I see this as a challenge that the root of the problem must be learned
16:04and become an evaluation material.
16:05So if we want, in the RUPTL,
16:0960% of the investment comes from private investment,
16:14then the key is that we have to improve the climate of renewable energy investment.
16:19That's one of the important things.
16:23And if we fail to improve this investment climate,
16:27then, just like in previous years,
16:30it will be difficult for us to reach the target set.
16:34Especially if we want to reach the net zero target in 2060 or earlier.
16:39So the problem is the climate of investment.
16:43And the PLN's ability to provide funding
16:48to implement the RUPTL is also limited.
16:53Okay, Mr. Fabi, if we look at the momentum,
16:56then how this policy is already correct or not,
16:59the investment climate that still needs to be improved,
17:02it means that this is a very fundamental thing
17:04that can be attractive for global investors,
17:07as well as domestic investors,
17:09to build electricity in Indonesia,
17:11as well as EBT when it becomes the focus of the government.
17:16Yes, if we look at it,
17:19I refer to the investment climate
17:23and what challenges Indonesia is facing.
17:28First, of course, the very strong perception of our investors
17:33is about uncertain policies and regulations.
17:41This is macro, in my opinion,
17:45but investors also see that
17:48our regulations actually increase the risk of investment.
17:56Because the risk of investment increases
17:59and with the structure of our electricity market today,
18:03because everything must be bought by the PLN.
18:05If we talk about RUPTL, electricity must be bought by the PLN.
18:09So, the health of the PLN finance is also important.
18:12This makes the project unbankable.
18:16The second is actually from the PLN ecosystem itself,
18:21where if we look at it,
18:26the PLN cannot or has not been able to
18:32carry out investments on a schedule and on schedule.
18:36So, for example, if we look at it,
18:38I take an illustration,
18:41for example, from RUPTL 2021-2030
18:44until 2025,
18:46there must be a development of about 10 gigawatts.
18:49And this is to meet the 23% target.
18:52Okay.
18:53It means that every year,
18:55the PLN must do a new energy development
18:58between 2 to 3 gigawatts.
19:01Because if you want to build until 2025,
19:04then the project must be inspected,
19:06must be prepared, built,
19:08so that later when the time is COD,
19:14it can be done.
19:16It's impossible if we want to have new capacity,
19:21for example, 10 gigawatts in 2025.
19:24We just inspected it in 2024 or 2025.
19:28Okay.
19:29This is the health of the PLN.
19:30I can imagine with the new RUPTL,
19:3270 gigawatts that are going to be built,
19:3471 gigawatts,
19:3570% of the new energy,
19:38because the rest is from gas,
19:40it means that every year,
19:42the PLN must be able to invest 3 to 4 gigawatts.
19:45And this is scheduled,
19:47it must be scheduled.
19:49Maybe in one year,
19:50it must be invested 2-3 times.
19:53Then after that, what?
19:55PPA.
19:56This can't be done for a long time.
19:58Meanwhile, we see,
19:59for example, in the case of several PLN users,
20:02PPA can take up to 1.5, 2, 3 years.
20:07The heat of the earth has been a long process,
20:10the PPA is also long.
20:12It can last for years.
20:14This is the second factor
20:17to strengthen the ecosystem in the PLN itself.
20:20You have to do planks, the PPA must be good,
20:23and the third, of course,
20:25what needs to be looked at
20:30is incentive and value, in my opinion.
20:37Most of the investors don't really need a lot of incentives,
20:42but certainty.
20:44If we look at it,
20:45for high-risk projects,
20:47there needs to be incentives from the government.
20:49We will see,
20:50what is the ideal working pattern
20:52between the private sector and the government
20:54in the development of renewable energy in Indonesia?
20:56But hold on to the answer,
20:57we will discuss it later in the next segment, Mr. Fabi.
20:59And viewers,
21:00we will be right back after the next conversation.
21:12We will continue this interesting discussion
21:14with Mr. Fabi Tumiwa from IEHR.
21:17Okay, Mr. Fabi,
21:18let's talk about the working pattern.
21:21What do you think is the most ideal
21:23so that the private sector feels benefited,
21:25there is certainty in business,
21:27while on the other hand,
21:28the government can meet its target
21:30for the construction of EBT power plants,
21:32meet the needs of electric power plants in Indonesia, Mr. Fabi?
21:38Yes, so in my opinion,
21:40private participation is something that cannot be avoided.
21:45Okay.
21:46And in fact, in my opinion,
21:47if we want to succeed in executing the plan,
21:50this is an important part.
21:52If we look at the needs of investment,
21:56if I'm not mistaken,
21:59for 2025-2034,
22:02it is estimated to require funding of around Rp1,100 trillion.
22:07Okay.
22:08Where Rp400 trillion is for transmission and distribution,
22:12then Rp700 trillion for development.
22:17Well, if we look at it,
22:19we see from the needs,
22:21Rp1,100 trillion
22:24means that every year,
22:26if we hit it evenly,
22:27there must be funds between Rp100 trillion and Rp120 trillion.
22:31Well, let's just look at the ability of the PLN
22:34to provide equity.
22:35So far, from my observations,
22:38the ability of the PLN to provide equity
22:40is at most 30%
22:43from the annual funding needs.
22:49Meanwhile, the PLN must build,
22:52the important thing is to build a transmission.
22:54Yes.
22:55The PLN must build a transmission.
22:57Why?
22:58Because the transmission is controlled by the PLN.
23:01Secondly, because this transmission
23:03is the important backbone to distribute electricity.
23:06If there is no transmission,
23:07electricity cannot be distributed to the city.
23:09And besides that,
23:10if we look at this transmission,
23:12from a business point of view,
23:15it is not very profitable.
23:17The rate of return is very small.
23:19So it is done by the PLN.
23:21If the private sector is given
23:23the rate of return received by the PLN today
23:26is less than 3%,
23:27I don't think there will be a private sector that wants to build.
23:31So it must be built by the PLN,
23:33but it must also be realized
23:34that this is not a profitable business.
23:37So most of the PLN funding
23:40will be allocated to build the transmission and distribution
23:43that will not be built by the private sector
23:45and cannot also be built by the private sector.
23:48The rest is for the revival.
23:51If we look at the 700 trillion from the revival,
23:54I suspect that the PLN can only take
23:57and 700 trillion is maybe 10-15%
24:00of the investment.
24:04The rest means there must be someone else
24:07who takes the portion.
24:08Who is it?
24:09It can be outside the PLN,
24:10it can be another BUMN or private sector,
24:12IPP,
24:13they can take the portion.
24:16Now what I think is important
24:19is how the government can push
24:23through the policies and regulations
24:25with the reformation in the internal PLN
24:28can ensure that when the PLN does the expansion,
24:32there are those who enter,
24:34there are those who then offer the project.
24:38So if there is a case where last year
24:41the PLN has opened the port,
24:42there is no one who enters,
24:44there is no one who offers,
24:45or submits a bidding document.
24:47Why is this?
24:49This actually shows that
24:52the project offered is not attractive.
24:56Even if we look at the dieselization
25:00that has been planned since 2021,
25:03it's just the port twice,
25:06if I'm not mistaken,
25:07then the winner is obtained.
25:11There are two companies that won,
25:14but even today,
25:16the PPL hasn't been put in place yet,
25:18because it's still waiting for approval from the Minister of State.
25:21These are things that I think are important,
25:24but become a challenge in the future.
25:27And in my opinion,
25:28the problem map has been identified well,
25:30only the SO solution is needed.
25:33What do you think about the execution?
25:35Can it break the bottleneck?
25:37If we talk about incentives,
25:39or for the results expected from the involvement of the private sector,
25:42if we talk about funding support,
25:44which may also be a support
25:46for the development of our EBT electricity market, Mr. Fabi?
25:49For me, there are three things
25:51that must be immediately implemented in the short term.
25:53First,
25:55implement all the prevailing regulations.
25:59For example, the tariff,
26:01which is currently regulated
26:03with the PPP 112 2022,
26:05in my opinion, needs to be re-evaluated.
26:07Why?
26:08Because today's conditions, the flow rate is high.
26:11We have to check again,
26:12even though the price of technology has dropped,
26:14but not all of it.
26:15For example, for the heat of the earth,
26:16for hydro,
26:18the cost of capital has not dropped.
26:21For solar,
26:22the price of PLTS may have dropped,
26:24but not the others.
26:25I think this needs to be re-evaluated,
26:27because investors will see
26:29whether the tariff there
26:31meets their margins or not.
26:36Second, in my opinion,
26:37what must be immediately improved
26:39is the ability of the PLN to do its job,
26:41and the PPA,
26:43so that the process is not long,
26:45in my opinion.
26:47And third, like it or not,
26:49the government must improve the PLN tariff,
26:52the electricity tariff.
26:53Because if we look at all of this,
26:56the PLN is an off-taker.
26:58So, the viability of the PLN money
27:01must be seen by the investor.
27:05They include the ability of the PLN
27:08to look for additional funding.
27:12Outside, you have to look for debt.
27:17If we look at it now,
27:18with a PLN with a high debt service ratio,
27:23one of them must increase the revenue of the PLN.
27:27Where does the revenue come from? From the tariff.
27:29So, in my opinion,
27:30it's time for the government to reform the tariff.
27:33It must be looked at again.
27:35Maybe this is not something popular,
27:38but if we look at the PLN tariff,
27:41it's actually been a long time since it was adjusted.
27:43The tariff was increased,
27:45the customer's tariff was above Rp3,300,
27:48the R2 and R3,
27:49but the R1,
27:51and it never happened.
27:53The B1 business never happened.
27:55In my opinion,
27:56if these things are done well,
27:58it will improve the financial condition of the PLN
28:01and will solve many problems.
28:07It can be solved by making the tariff more rational.
28:12Maybe, I say,
28:14reflecting the real cost.
28:16That's right.
28:17Even though it's quite a difficult step
28:19by the government and the PLN itself.
28:21Unlike the current condition.
28:25All right, Mr. Fabi.
28:26Those are some points that need to be considered
28:29in terms of regulation,
28:31and the ability of the PLN
28:32to improve our EBT projects in the future.
28:35All right, Mr. Fabi.
28:36Thank you very much
28:37for the information,
28:38updates, and analysis
28:39given to the auditors today.
28:41Good luck with your activities.
28:43Stay healthy.
28:44See you again, Mr. Fabi.
28:46Thank you, Mr. Pras.
28:47See you again.