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00:00What is more likely Donnie right side either team when Super Bowl 59 by exactly?
00:07Ten points not nine not eleven exactly ten or the game goes to overtime
00:13What is more likely a ten-point win for Casey or Philadelphia or an additional ten minutes in Super Bowl 59?
00:23Five years ago Ben
00:24I would have said give me either team to win by exactly ten points because it makes sense because in the past
00:30analytically, you weren't maybe so
00:32Opportunistic if we can use that word kindly
00:34The reason I bring this up is overtime has a great chance because if you're down eight if you're down seven
00:4030 30 27 27 24 24 you're down three points with 30 seconds up to go
00:45You're not trying for a touchdown. You kick the field goal
00:47The reason I bring up the ten points is how many times do we see Ben where the analytical approaches, right?
00:52You're down 17 points with five minutes to go you score the touchdown most people like yes
00:58Just kick the extra point and make it ten
01:00but the analytics actually say you should go for two to make it nine because the chances of you scoring the touchdown to make it
01:06Ten you kicking the field goal, then you know scoring the touchdown
01:10You still have to go to extras and then you might not even get the football and then you lose just by that sense
01:14Because the other schemes was a touchdown you stop them in extras
01:17You see what I'm getting or it doesn't go your way because the Super Bowl is actually a little bit different than the regular
01:21Season in overtime, but for me the analytics come in where I don't think you ever try to get it to ten anymore
01:26It's usually you always want to get it under ten an opportunity
01:29understand this the game could end up 30 to 20 because that's just what the score is with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter
01:34And nobody scores the rest of the way, but I can see it happen
01:38Like oh, I'm gonna get this exactly attend dick
01:40Most people probably like why is he going for two?
01:42Don't you just want to make it that to score a game and not miss it now get an actual touchdown and a two-point conversion
01:48That's the only reason why the new analytics would push me to say the game goes to overtime at 13 to 1 the way
01:54I would want to go