L'ampliamento è spesso indicato come la politica estera più efficace dell'UE, ma da quando la più grande ondata di nuovi membri ha aderito nel 2004, il processo si è in gran parte arenato.
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00:00Enlargement is often referred to as the EU's most effective foreign policy.
00:14But since its biggest wave of new members joined in in 2004, the process has largely stopped.
00:20At Davos I sat down with the Prime Ministers of Croatia and Montenegro,
00:24also the Foreign Minister of Ukraine and the EU's Enlargement Commissioner
00:29to discuss and debate how the EU can revitalise its enlargement process.
00:59What has changed in the EU that is making accession so difficult as you are starting to take care of this portfolio now?
01:29What has changed in the EU that is making accession so difficult as you are starting to take care of this portfolio now?
01:59What has changed in the EU that is making accession so difficult as you are starting to take care of this portfolio now?
02:05What has changed in the EU that is making accession so difficult as you are starting to take care of this portfolio now?
02:11What has changed in the EU that is making accession so difficult as you are starting to take care of this portfolio now?
02:17What has changed in the EU that is making accession so difficult as you are starting to take care of this portfolio now?
02:23In 2013, as the 28th Member State, it became the second nation to do it on its own after Greece, which was 1981.
02:31So that was a very specific case for your country.
02:34And there was this kind of enlargement fatigue, largely a result of a slow integration process for new members,
02:41which meant also there were kind of more demands and requirements of Croatia when you joined the European Union.
02:48How has this heightened level of scrutiny impacted the country now that you have joined also the Schengen Area and the Eurozone?
02:55Well, Croatia joined, as you rightly put it, on the 1st of July 2013, almost 10 years after the big enlargement.
03:03What was good for us, we joined when we were prepared.
03:07We, especially in my first government, decided to go into the deeper integration we managed,
03:13which is the Eurozone, the Schengen Area, the European Stability Mechanism.
03:17And the benefits are there.
03:19When we started nine years ago, my first government, we were at 62% of the average development of the European Union.
03:27Now we are at 78%. By the time we end the third government, we'll be at 82%.
03:31That means that the economic impact and the developmental impact, the infrastructure, including also values,
03:37the rule of law and everything that goes with it, were highly appreciated by the Croatian citizens and the society.
03:44The country looks very different now, I would say much better.
03:47Somehow Montenegro can be considered as the furthest along in the accession process.
03:52How did you feel this change, as Prime Minister said, when the arms were first opened,
03:59but it's a bit different now for Montenegro, for Ukraine.
04:03But also what areas of progress or closer cooperation with the EU remain?
04:07You've just had the Commissioner visiting Montenegro as well, just a couple of days ago, right, before we're meeting here at Davos.
04:13First of all, I don't think that EU accession process is actually competition.
04:18We are all trying to fulfill the basic conditions that EU is requiring for our own good.
04:26It's not because of the EU that we are doing all of these requirements.
04:30It's for ourselves, to develop better, to have better market economies, to have rule of law,
04:35to have more fair society, to have more democratic institutions.
04:40So this is what we are trying to build. We are trying to build a system.
04:43It's especially difficult if you are a country like Montenegro.
04:47You know, in ex-Yugoslavia, some of you might know, that Montenegro was like the smallest republic.
04:54And very few, if any, institutions were based out of Podgorica.
04:59Most of them are based out of Belgrade, some of them are based out of Zagreb, a bit maybe in Ljubljana.
05:05You know, Podgorica is literally nothing.
05:07So can you imagine in 2006, we had to build basically institutions almost from municipal level.
05:13Almost from municipal level.
05:15So this was like a big, big step forward for us in last 18 years.
05:19So we are like, by Montenegrin law, we are adults now.
05:23So we are hoping that we get adult treatment as well.
05:27Minister, Ukraine is also on its way to the European Union.
05:32And you've heard some of the notions here.
05:35Now, your accession negotiations officially opened on the 25th of June 2024.
05:40Considering that the process is generally considered to be slow and meticulous,
05:46what can we realistically expect in terms of some sort of accelerated Ukrainian candidacy?
05:52Why I say that is not about fast-tracking it one way street,
05:56it's about Ukraine trying to, every time to produce, to get the progress quicker and quicker.
06:02Thanks a lot for your question.
06:05In Ukraine, more than 90% of our people support Ukrainian EU membership.
06:11By the way, that's another part of Russian brutal aggression.
06:16Before the full-scale aggression, a little bit more than 50% of our population supported EU accession.
06:26On the fourth day of this brutal aggression, we applied to EU to become a member of EU.
06:34In a half a year, we got the status of candidate.
06:40It means that we need such a speed now because of geopolitical reality.
06:46And it was also our response to this brutality, to these Russian atrocities, to protect our values.
06:53It was our strategic choice.
06:56And I would also like to remind that EU, when it was founded after the war,
07:04it was not only about trade, it was also about to defeat war, to defeat thinking of war,
07:13of this war politics, to defeat the Putins of that time, to defeat fascism and Nazism.
07:22And regretfully, these diseases returned back to Europe.
07:26And now we need to defeat this Russian aggression.
07:29We must achieve long-lasting, just comprehensive peace
07:36because security of Europe and security of Ukraine is indivisible.
07:42And it is not a favor for us on our way to become EU member
07:50because we will contribute in the strength of EU,
07:53we will contribute in the competitive advantages of EU,
07:57with our, for example, defense industries, with our technologies, with our security experience.
08:05And probably it will be the best investment for EU.
08:09If we are speaking about cost, we have such evaluations,
08:13the cost will be approximately 0.17 of the EU GDP,
08:22if we are speaking about the enlargement of nine countries.
08:26Right.
08:27These points that we've just heard from the two candidate countries,
08:30regarding how they have to overcome the obstacles within the EU of some of the member states
08:35who are less willing on continuing the enlargement.
08:39But do these existing countries then share the same values
08:43that are actually demanded of the candidates?
08:47First of all, we have to bear in mind that every enlargement process is a politically driven process.
08:54But what I would like to know, that everybody is realistic,
08:57because sense of realism is the most important notion in the process of enlargement,
09:02is that the forgotten Copenhagen, the fourth Copenhagen criteria of 1993,
09:09which is so-called the absorption capacity of the European Union, has come back.
09:15In the absorption capacity, translated into a common language,
09:18means what is the budgetary cost of enlargement,
09:23what will be the effect of new members on the play of contributor countries and beneficiary countries,
09:31what will be the impact on the policies, cohesion, agriculture, any policy that you can imagine.
09:38I'm sure that you've heard lots of criticism regarding whether things are being fast-tracked
09:44when it comes to Ukraine compared to some of the other countries
09:47that have been waiting for longer and then applying longer and so on.
09:52What's your take on that?
09:53Because this is an important issue to address.
09:56We love it.
09:57We want to be even faster.
09:59We don't mind at all.
10:00For us, it's totally okay.
10:02It's just, obviously, don't forget us as well.
10:04In the meantime, the progression of Ukraine is extremely welcome,
10:10and as I already said, we feel Ukraine is part of the wider region,
10:15and we feel we have common destiny, and we want to see Ukraine progress as fast as possible.
10:20But I would say that we should still keep some level of meritocracy, as in meritocratic approach.
10:30So I think Montenegro has done a lot, and we will do even more.
10:34So our plan is extremely ambitious.
10:36We want in two years, i.e. by end of 2026, to fully close all the chapters, to be fully ready for EU.
10:44So we are hoping that EU can see that, can recognize the efforts, can recognize the spirit that we are projecting,
10:52and that they will accept us, and that by end of 2026 we close all the chapters,
11:00and in 2028 we become 28th member state.
11:04The race is the race.
11:06I think this is healthy, because it is based on the merit-based principle,
11:12meaning, you know, it's not about timing.
11:14You know, sometimes I hear, but you know, the Western Balkan states, they wait for so long.
11:18It is not about how long they are waiting, it is how much they are able to deliver,
11:23and about their political will, and this has changed.
11:27So if they do what they have to do, you know, we say negotiations,
11:31mainly it is take it or leave it, sorry that I say it so bluntly.
11:35So you have no possibility to now negotiate on some important basic value in the EU.