CGTN Europe spoke to Marco Forgione, Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.
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00:00Marco Forgione is Director-General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International
00:04Trade.
00:05Marco, welcome back.
00:06Good to see you.
00:07So, Mr Trump considering imposing a 10% tariff on import of Chinese goods from the 1st of
00:12February.
00:14Is this the glimpse of what the next four years of US trade policy is going to look
00:18like or, to misquote Trump's book, the start of negotiations?
00:24Absolutely.
00:26I think what we can know with certainty is that Trump is going to use every tool in the
00:33toolbox, every weapon in his armory, to negotiate and secure the best possible deal for America,
00:41whether that's through imposing direct tariffs or requiring those who want to trade with
00:47the US to adopt really strict rules of origin and amend their supply chains.
00:53So I think we're seeing a real shift now in the way in which America trades and the
00:58role that the administration feels America could play and should play in the global economy.
01:04One imagines that government flunkies around the world are rushing out to buy Donald Trump's
01:09book The Art of the Deal.
01:10Presumably both of America's neighbours, Canada and Mexico, will be troubled with the mention
01:16of import tax of 25%.
01:19If that stays, if 25% stays in those respective countries, how impactful might those be, if
01:28enforced?
01:29Well, there are a number of impacts that's going to have immediately on the supply and
01:34the trade between Canada and Mexico and the US.
01:38It will encourage production back into the US but also where does that product find a
01:44new market?
01:45In the supply chains that are feeding those manufacturers in Canada and the US.
01:50So what America is doing isn't just going to impact directly Canada, Mexico or China
01:56but will have a global impact because of the highly integrated supply chains.
02:02And the disruption that we're seeing now is, I think, a response to the realisation that
02:08what happens now, what the incoming administration implements now, has much broader impact than
02:17just that direct point-to-point trade flow.
02:19So I think that the reality is that it is often said that you don't need to take Trump
02:24literally but you need to take him seriously has never been more important because you
02:29need to respond to actually what happens as much as the noise that is being created.
02:35And if you do read the art of the deal, you'll understand that making sure that you, the
02:40Trump administration, have the best platform, the strongest platform to do a deal means
02:45destabilising those that you're trying to deal with and that's exactly what's happening
02:49currently.
02:50With that in mind then, what can the European Union expect perhaps in terms of tariffs?
03:00I think Trump is already setting out the stall.
03:02The European Union is going to have to look at not just allowing more American automotive
03:09into the EU, allowing more agricultural produce, but also to shift its purchasing of energy
03:16to the US.
03:18I think those are the fundamentals that need to be looked at before any hope of a longer-term,
03:25more stable trading relationship.
03:27Marco, good to see you.
03:28Thanks so much for coming back on the programme.
03:30Marco Forgione, Director-General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.