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00:00More on this, we're going to bring on political commentator Dr. Ori Goldberg.
00:04Dr. Goldberg, thank you so much for joining us today.
00:08Thank you for having me.
00:09Well, do you see this ceasefire as a victory? And if so, for who?
00:16I don't know if I can see it as a victory, but if I'd have to choose,
00:19I'd have to say it was a victory for Hamas. Israel is reaching the ceasefire without
00:25having achieved any of its declared goals for the war that has lasted 15 months,
00:31and with having carried out what I think most of the world considers to be a genocide.
00:38So again, I think both sides lost. Gaza is decimated. Hamas has brought its people
00:44unprecedented destruction and death. And Israel is only now starting to pay the costs
00:51and has spent the past 15 months doing nothing but wreaking havoc. So I have to say it's on point
00:58and it goes to Hamas. What would a better agreement have looked like in your view?
01:08I don't know if a better agreement could have been achieved. Again,
01:11the state of reality, the state in the field is horrendous. The destruction in Gaza is really
01:19unbelievable. And the humanitarian needs are hard to fathom. And Israel finds itself in a pickle
01:27because it has overextended its forces and it hasn't actually achieved anything. So I think
01:33with the state of things as they are, this deal is probably as good as both sides might have hoped it
01:38to be. So I know you don't see this as a victory per se, but either way, a ceasefire, if things
01:46go according to plan, will take place at least for now. So who deserves the credit at least for
01:51that getting done? Donald Trump's return to the White House obviously undeniably played a role,
01:57but is this deal his to claim? No, I actually think that this was a decision
02:06that was made by Prime Minister Netanyahu, even though incoming President Trump certainly played
02:11a role. Hamas has been steadfast about its position throughout the entire 15 months,
02:16and the deal that has been accepted is the deal that Hamas had agreed to at least six or eight
02:22months ago. Netanyahu made the decision. He made the decision as a political decision. I think it
02:28behooves him to accept the deal now because he understands two things. One is that Israel has
02:33absolutely nowhere else to go, and its condition is beginning to deteriorate both externally and
02:39internally. But also I think he understands that there's been a subtle shift in Israeli public
02:43opinion over the past several weeks, and I think majority of Israelis who might be his future
02:50voters are tired of the war and want it to end. What do you think is to prevent Benjamin Netanyahu
02:56from continuing with the war once he has someone who is friendly to him in the White House in the
03:01form of Donald Trump and once the hostages are released? I don't think Donald Trump supports
03:07the war. I don't think Donald Trump supports wars generally. Wars are not what he feels he was
03:11elected to do. He was elected to make deals, and I don't see him committing to a forever war led by
03:17Israel. And again, the second thing is that the war is gradually, slowly, subtly, but in pronounced
03:25fashion becoming bad politically. The war is now a cause that's espoused by the hard religious right
03:31in Israel, the settlers, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. The majority of Israelis, again, not because they
03:38don't support Israel's genocidal campaign, but because they feel the campaign has failed. The
03:44majority of Israelis want the war to end. Netanyahu sees this. He understands that if he is seen as
03:51the leader who not only fought the necessary war, but was also capable of making the difficult
03:56decision in ending it, he stands a good chance of winning what is likely to be an election that
04:03takes place in Israel over the past coming months. So Netanyahu has no reason to go on with the war.
04:08He needs to make it look as difficult as possible, but ultimately his personal and I think also
04:15national considerations are such that the war is not good for him. So as a last question for you,
04:22sir, you kind of hinted at some of it in this question, but I'd like to know then what you
04:25think is going, what is in store for Benjamin Netanyahu's government in the short to mid-term,
04:31and is there really any alternative at this point, any realistic alternative to Benjamin Netanyahu
04:36in Israel right now? Oh, there's a very realistic alternative, and this is actually what I think
04:42stands a good chance of happening. I think a deal will go through. I think the second phase scheduled
04:47for six weeks from now will also go through. Once this happens, Ben-Gvir will resign in six
04:53weeks, Montesh will resign. Netanyahu will need the backing of his parliamentary opposition to
04:58continue to stay in power. Their condition will be that he calls an election as quickly as possible,
05:03that is three to five months from, six weeks from now. And once that happens, Netanyahu,
05:08I think will wager that he stands a good chance of winning that election. So if I'm looking at
05:13his political future, that's what I'm seeing, the minority government, an election, and him
05:18as a very much a viable candidate. Dr. Ori Goldberg, thank you very much for your analysis.