Tempo Eksplainer: Inflasi 2024 Terendah Sepanjang Sejarah Indonesia, Pertanda Positif?
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00:00Inflation
00:04The Central Statistical Board noted that until December 2024,
00:07annual inflation was 1.57% with a consumer price index of 106.80.
00:15This figure is the lowest inflation since the BPS started noting price fluctuations in Indonesia in 1958,
00:22although at that time inflation calculations were only carried out in the Jakarta region.
00:26Deputy for Statistics, Distribution, and Service BPS Puji Ismartini explained that
00:31the calculation has now developed by using data from 150 cities in 38 provinces.
00:36The main factor in reducing inflation in 2024 is the increase in the price of staple food.
00:44In addition, the price of staple food has risen in 2022 and 2023.
00:48On the part of the export group,
00:50the annual inflation in 2024 was caused by an increase in the price of staple food, drinks, and tobacco by 1.90%.
00:57This group contributed the most to the general inflation of 0.55%.
01:02Other dominant communities
01:05Other dominant communities contributed the most to the annual inflation in December 2024,
01:10including the price of house rent, house rent, house assistance, car, school fees,
01:16school fees, fried oil, rice with fish, and jewelry.
01:21On the other hand, the export group that experienced deflation was the transport group of 0.04%.
01:30A number of economists said that the low inflation in 2024 was not entirely positive.
01:34Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics Indonesia, Muhammad Faisal, evaluated
01:39that this condition is more like a structural problem,
01:42such as the weakness of people's purchasing power that can slow down economic growth.
01:46Although there is an impact from the supply side, according to Faisal,
01:48the decline in inflation in 2024 is more due to the weakness of domestic demand,
01:53especially the purchasing power of middle-class people.
01:55This has an impact on the industry sector and household consumption.
01:59He even said that inflation is lower than during the pandemic as an indication
02:03that the economic conditions of the community have not fully recovered.
02:07Economic Institute for Development of Economic and Finance, Zulfian Shafrian said
02:11that there are two monetary and fiscal policies that affect the low inflation in 2024.
02:17First, the increase in aggressive flow rates.
02:20Second, the increase in labor burden that must be borne by the community,
02:23especially for low-income groups.
02:25This combination makes the community and businesses stressed
02:28by high cost of financing and heavy fiscal burden.
02:33In addition, Zulfian pointed out that the government claims that inflation is under control,
02:37the Purchasing Manager Index of Indonesian Manufacturers is expansive,
02:40and the business world remains optimistic about the future national economic conditions.
02:44He emphasized that there is a decline in demand or supply,
02:48as seen in the negative PMI trend of manufacturers since July 2024.
02:53Zulfian said that this is due to the weakness of domestic demand,
02:57especially the weakness of middle-class people.
03:00Zulfian said that this is due to the weakness of domestic demand,
03:05especially the weakness of middle-class people.
03:07Zulfian said that this is due to the weakness of domestic demand,
03:11especially the weakness of middle-class people.
03:13The decision to change jobs in various sectors will have a negative impact on people's income
03:17and will worsen people's purchasing power.
03:20As a result, there is a difficult economic health circle to overcome.
03:25The Minister of Finance, Arlangga Hartarto,
03:29The Minister of Finance, Arlangga Hartarto,
03:32estimated that 1.57% indicates that inflation is still under control
03:36in the national target range, which is 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
03:41The Golkari Party politician said that inflation is under control
03:44in addition to the expansion of Indonesian manufacturers' PMI,
03:47showing that the business world remains optimistic about the future national economic conditions.
03:51According to him, this is also evidenced by the outlook of the World Bank in December 2024,
03:55which projects that Indonesia's economy will grow 5.1% in 2024
04:00and 5.2% in 2025.
04:08The Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani Indrawati,
04:10said that the low inflation in 2024 shows Indonesia's resilience in the midst of various pressures.
04:16Ex-World Bank Director-in-Chief also stated that inflation throughout 2024
04:21plummeted significantly from 2.61% at the end of 2023,
04:25especially because the food price was pushed back to normal.
04:29However, Sri Mulyani emphasized that the threat of inflation is not completely over
04:33because there is still uncertainty in global monetary policy.
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