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00:00Today, the Tampa Bay Bucs need a victory against the Carolina
00:03Panthers. And as we've seen, easier said than done. Last
00:08week, Carolina upsets the Arizona Cardinals in a 36-30
00:13overtime victory. However, it'll be a little more difficult
00:16going into this game against the Bucs, because they will be
00:18without Shuba Hubbard, who's had an excellent season for the
00:22Panthers. Multiple touchdowns last week, double digits on the
00:25season, just under 1,200 rushing yards. And I think that
00:29is part of the reason, along with Tampa needing the game,
00:33Leecey, we're seeing a double-digit number right now in
00:36favor of the Bucs.
00:36Yeah, last time they played, it was an overtime game, 23-20.
00:40Carolina got the cover, didn't win the ballgame outright.
00:42Tampa did prevail in terms of overtime. And you have a team
00:46in Tampa that's playing at home, better home team. They stepped
00:49up. Again, they should be able to win this game. Eight and a
00:52half, though, Kev, even without Shuba Hubbard in terms of a
00:55divisional matchup, just a lot of points. Even though Tampa Bay
00:59needs this game, again, I still think Carolina could be within
01:02margin. The total 47 and a half, 48 with bad weather does scare
01:07me just a little bit. I would lean to the under to see how the
01:10first half plays out, see if you could pick it up, potentially
01:13Donnie into the mid-30s. I want to see that track. I want to see
01:17if it's wet. I want to see if it's rainy. And then I would
01:19back a total in terms of that perspective. Look for Rashad
01:22White, Bucky Irvin to be more of a factor. They would try to be
01:26that factor in terms of the first half of that matchup. And
01:29Dallas was able to shut them down in the second half. Baker
01:32did have success through the air. Again, I would love to lean
01:35to the over, but it's an under for me. And I think Carolina does
01:38cover this line.
01:39And by the way, we're a little bit unlucky in this because
01:41heavy rain is supposed to be through a majority of this game.
01:44Now, is it heavy where it's a thunderstorm? It passes in 15
01:47minutes. Does it linger? That's what we don't know yet, which
01:49is the battle of actually trying to figure that out. But for me,
01:52I went opposite of like yardage. I thought Baker Mayford have a
01:54big day. The running game should because Carolina is one of the
01:57worst defenses in the NFL. And as we've pointed out multiple
01:59times, Carolina doesn't need the game. And certainly Tampa Bay
02:02does as well. But for me, I look at that double digits. And by
02:04the way, is anybody affected by the rain? 47 and a half opening
02:07number 47 and a half today. When I tell you heavy rain is in the
02:10forecast, nobody cares because you're still thinking like, oh,
02:13you know what? No matter what that Tampa Bay offense is going
02:15to get nuts and probably it should. Mike Evans also closing
02:18in on 1000 yard season. He's going to get a ton of targets. I
02:20think he's going to score a touchdown today. I think
02:22multiple touchdown opportunities for Baker Mayfield in the air as
02:25well. The one thing we just don't know is how that weather
02:28is actually going to play out because we do talk about it a
02:31lot. It can rain. That's fine. If it's not a lot of wind out
02:33there, that's going to push that football around. A lot of points
02:36can still be had. But the one thing I do worry about Carolina
02:38too is Bryce Young comes in this game banged up too. And I
02:41joked yesterday trying to find a Chuba Hubbard number like, hey,
02:43it's raining. He's probably going to be their only offense
02:45like money getting any numbers had no idea a couple hours
02:48earlier. He was placed on IR which again shows you like
02:51Kevin pointed out with the Dallas Cowboys. That white flag
02:53is whipping around that locker room where you see star players
02:56not playing because you know they can possibly play but
02:59aren't going to play. That's going to feed into Tampa Bay
03:01rolling them today. Yeah, it's this weird spot where I could
03:05see the box really dialed in. But the number is nuts to me
03:10like I pouring rain 10 and a high number. It's crazy. The
03:15books are maybe they're not because it's up to what the
03:19better does. But the numbers on the Panthers never make sense
03:23week over week. Yeah, they just absolutely don't right. They go
03:26and lay to Dallas and what are you doing? And then it's like,
03:29all right, you're catching six format from the Cardinals at
03:33home. What are you doing? And now it's like, Oh, Tampa is
03:37going to roll this team. The books just hosted Vegas three
03:40games ago late under a touchdown at home. This
03:43Carolina team again, it puts everybody they play. It seems
03:46like on upset alert here. It's a huge number. It is. We see this
03:51get clipped. Like I look forward to it because I assume we will
03:56run back the same thing from last year of the well, they need
03:59the game. Of course, they're going to win. And it doesn't
04:02always play out that way. And it certainly doesn't mean that just
04:05because you need it. You're going to run in high. Yeah,
04:07correct. So I think Tampa's laying a little too much with
04:09that said paint Durham through 20. What a sizzle melon would
04:13have been milling 39 and a half. That's secondary option. No
04:16numbers on Palmer, right? He's in there, but you get none. No,
04:19Kate. What is it with the last name Palmer Ryan Miller? Is it
04:23Ryan Miller down to now? Wow. No, Kate Otten as well. No
04:28Sterling Shepherd creates extra targets last week. Durham had
04:32five catches on seven targets for 29 yards. I think that keeps
04:36the yardage number low. I'm not going to bet the receptions
04:39because pain Durham isn't going to be someone that averages six
04:42yards per reception. It doesn't have to be that way. 23 and a
04:46half is such a low number. He could very well hit one down the
04:49seam that clears that on just a single reception. One of my
04:53favorite props on this board here today is paying Durham over
04:5623 and a half. It's great. Look, Baker loves the tight end. So
04:59it doesn't matter who's in there. If there's going to be
05:01bad weather, he'll check down. He'll find the open receiver. So
05:04it's a great look. Again, I can't play this from a pre kick
05:08because I do want to see how the weather does play out. Once I
05:11get eyes on it in terms of one o'clock, I'll make an assessment
05:14done. But you might have eight, nine minutes with no scoring.
05:17And because of the weather, you might then all of a sudden get
05:20an overreaction where they start hammering this number down. We
05:24might pick it up in terms of 3132. You might get an 18 point
05:28discount in terms of some, you know, some shops. So take a look
05:31at it. Raheem Blackshear, the former Rutgers star, and you get
05:35Mike Boone, former Cincinnati and Minnesota running back will
05:38take over the duties for Carolina. Flip a coin on which
05:43one they're gonna go with, right? Is it Blackshear or
05:45Boone? Boone has, I guess, more NFL experience starting more.
05:49You want to take a shot? I mean, I would have thought it would
05:51have been Blackshear younger. He's been with Carolina. It's
05:54got better vision, more elusive. It's just Boone is more of a
05:57physical type of runner. It all depends on how Carolina wants to
06:01play this game. Yeah, watch out for getting sacked on the
06:03backside today for your quarterback. We're having those
06:05guys trying to pick up some blocks for you. But I went
06:07actually more of a touchdown route today than a yardage
06:10route. You still see the 47 and a half. I think you get some
06:12sloppy playing football, which means multiple touchdowns.
06:15You're expecting Tampa Bay's 29 and a half as their team total
06:18today. So expectancy of around four touchdowns. So I took a
06:21couple of, I got Mike Evans, like we'll see it later, minus
06:23115 to score a touchdown today. Seems so low at this point with
06:27a 29 and a half total.