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MEDI1TV Afrique : Regard sur les bouleversements géopolitiques au Moyen-Orient
- 16/12/2024

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00:00Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this special episode of Questions d'Actu,
00:17a special episode of Atlantic Dialogue, a high-level conference organized by the Moroccan
00:21think tank Policy Center for the New South.
00:24In three days, experts, decision-makers, researchers, and thinkers gathered here in Rabat to discuss
00:32and analyze the hot topics of the day.
00:36We take advantage of the presence of these experts to ask them questions about what
00:42is the news today, but above all, the potential impacts of these striking events on the weeks,
00:51the months to come.
00:52It is a pleasure for me to welcome him today in this studio specially arranged for the Atlantic Dialogues
00:58by Median TV.
00:59He is the Director of Governance and Construction of State Institutions within the United Nations.
01:06Younes Saboua Youb, good evening and thank you very much for answering our questions.
01:10Good evening, it is a pleasure to have you again.
01:12So, the topic on all languages, and you are coming back from this region, it is Syria.
01:18The day after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, are you confident for the future of this country
01:26and Paris-Cauchy of the region?
01:28Listen, we can only rejoice that, let's say, an authoritarian system has been surpassed
01:37by the events, a rapid fall that many did not expect to happen so soon.
01:46But I think, far from the celebrations that I understand among the Syrians, I do not really expect
01:54better days, at least not in the medium term.
02:00I think what happened in Syria will create or will make the bed of more, even more conflicts
02:08within Syria.
02:10This depends, of course, on the decisions that will be taken by those in power today in Syria.
02:19But given how the system of Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown, given the ethnic and religious
02:29mosaic of Syria, given the regional context of Syria, Lebanon, Israel, the Kurds, Turkey,
02:36I think this is a recipe for more chaos, unfortunately, than stability.
02:42So you are in charge of the construction of state institutions.
02:45I would like to ask you about this.
02:48When you say in the medium term, could we hope, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad,
02:57a regime that lasted more than half a century, including, of course, the mandate of his
03:02predecessors, could there be a strong institution capable of governing all this ethnic and religious
03:12mosaic in Syria?
03:13I think it will be very difficult for those in power today to put everyone in agreement
03:20on what the future of the Syrian state would be.
03:23When you say those in power today, you mean Joulani?
03:27Joulani, of course.
03:28Joulani has already taken the lead.
03:30He has appointed a government, a prime minister, without agreement, without consultation with
03:34the rest, the civil society, because in the end, Joulani does not represent all of Syria.
03:41A large part of Joulani's movement is not even Syrian, by the way.
03:45So this should be clarified and not forgotten.
03:48That is to say, they are not Syrian, where do they come from?
03:50There are a multitude of fighters who come from China, the Uighurs, there are the Chechens,
03:57there are the Turkmens, there are also other Arab nationalities.
04:01And so it is far from being a purely Syrian revolution.
04:05It is the result of something that comes from 2011, of an international regional war by proxy,
04:14hence the intervention of Syria in 2015, the Iranians and other forces.
04:20Turkey is a major player in what happened.
04:23Joulani is an actor who indirectly represents the interests of Turkey and other countries
04:33in the region.
04:34We will already have a problem with the Kurdistan, which is trying, the Syrian Kurdistan, which
04:39is now trying to forge a place in this new Syria.
04:42It will look almost like what happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein's fall.
04:46Will it be done without bloodshed or not?
04:50It remains to be seen.
04:51There are other components of Syrian society.
04:54Do you think that the blood will continue to flow even after?
04:57Unfortunately, unfortunately.
04:58I hope I'm wrong in what I'm planning, but given the conditions of the region, I think so.
05:07And there is, of course, something that must not be forgotten, that the sworn enemy of
05:10the eternal Syria, Israel, will not allow the birth of a centralized and strong Syrian state.
05:18And we already see the premises of this.
05:20There are more than 350 air raids that have destroyed, decimated the Syrian army, decimated
05:26the ports and infrastructures of Syria, that is, everything that is the basis of the development
05:32of the Syrian state tomorrow, economically.
05:34But already, it is on its knees, it is on the ground, it is on the ground, this economy.
05:37Absolutely.
05:37What else can be destroyed?
05:38Destroy the bases that could, or the engine that could, make the economy, the society
05:47of Syria tomorrow.
05:48That is to say, for Israel, it is important that Syria remains a weakened country, institutionally
05:55speaking, in conflict with itself, as long as it does not overflow beyond the region
06:02and touching the security of Israel.
06:03Israel has now intervened in Syria and is present, the Syrian army is present in Syria,
06:07not far from Damascus, which was unthinkable a few weeks ago.
06:11And the UN?
06:13Listen, the UN…
06:14You come back to it, you were in Syria.
06:16Yes, the region, I…
06:17You were in Syria a few days ago, barely, Younes Abou Ayyub.
06:21Everyone was overwhelmed by what happened.
06:23Even the UN?
06:24Even the UN, yes, because we did not know, we did not expect it to come back so quickly.
06:29Because in the end, there was no fight, there was no…
06:32What happened is that we gave the keys to the forces of Joulani, quite simply.
06:36Now, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, there will be no resistance, no.
06:39The army did not fight.
06:42You will tell me why, I will tell you there are several reasons.
06:45First, there is no longer the morale to fight after more than a decade of war in the country.
06:51The country was on its knees.
06:52You know that I told you earlier that a Syrian soldier received the equivalent of $7 a month.
06:59So, corruption was rampant within the system.
07:04Poverty, inflation, devaluation of the Lira, everything you want.
07:09So it was a really delicate country.
07:11So, it was enough to point a finger and the castle of Kars collapsed.
07:17Especially that the Russians, also the Iranians, who wanted to intervene to support,
07:22but it was already too late because what had to be done after the Astana agreements,
07:26in institutional, constitutional and security reforms, was not done.
07:31Astana in 2017, it seems to me.
07:35But, there is an actor that we speak very little about, it is Iran.
07:41Is today Iran coming out totally losing from the fall of Bashar al-Assad?
07:48I would not say totally, but certainly very weakened.
07:51Because what made the aura and the power of Iran on the regional level,
07:55it was precisely this axis, what is called the axis of resistance,
07:59for those who see what is happening as a resistance vis-à-vis Israel.
08:04That is, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis later in Yemen,
08:11Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein,
08:14that was the basis of the regional projection of Iran.
08:18Certainly with the fall of Syria, I do not know if Iran will recover from that or not.
08:24Will Iran be able to rebuild a new axis,
08:27or will it just become an actor of the slightest importance on the regional level,
08:34in favor of Turkey, which is now projected as the great winner of what happened in Syria,
08:39and of course Israel.
08:41Speaking of Israel, Palestine,
08:43what could be the indirect effect of the fall of Bashar al-Assad on the Palestinian case?
08:51And also, since we are talking about Lebanon, about the Hezbollah,
08:56and the future of the Iranian presence in this region,
09:00and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, perhaps the day after this radical change in the Middle East.
09:10I think that for the Palestinians, no one can compare what happened with 1967.
09:16I think it is something that goes beyond even 1948.
09:20It is a radical change in the situation in Palestine.
09:24I think that Palestine is disappearing before our eyes.
09:28The great Israel project is really taking shape.
09:33After October 7, almost 14 months of Palestinian resistance, and now at the end.
09:38They are exhausted, they can no longer continue.
09:41And I think that the plan, or the very idea on which Oslo was built,
09:47that is, the question of the two states, is over.
09:49The Israeli Knesset has said it well.
09:51It has approved the idea, or the resolution, that there will be no more Palestinian states.
09:58And now, today, we already know that Hamas has accepted the conditions,
10:03some conditions of Israel, the presence, for example, of the Israeli army in Gaza, permanently.
10:08I think that the next step will be the Sijordani.
10:12The Sijordani?
10:13Totally annexed Israel?
10:14A large part, already more than a third, is already taken.
10:18I think it is the end of the Palestinian Authority, in my opinion.
10:21At least as we know it today.
10:23But Israel doesn't really have a problem,
10:27I put the word in tridimension, a problem with the Palestinian Authority.
10:30Their problem is Hamas.
10:32No, that's not true, absolutely not.
10:34Netanyahu said it well, he never wanted a Palestinian Authority.
10:37Moreover, we must reread the Oslo Accords.
10:39The Oslo Accords never talked about a Palestinian state.
10:41That is the great, great, great mistake of the signing of Yasser Arafat at that time.
10:47And the idea that the Oslo Accords were planned at the end of a process that is very long,
10:52more than 30 years, a Palestinian state, that was not true.
10:54It was a local Palestinian administration.
10:57It is not a Palestinian state.
10:59And so what we will be able to see in the years to come, on the medium term,
11:02may be a kind of local administration, a bit like the Batustan of South Africa at the time.
11:09But if this process continues,
11:11and in my opinion it will continue if there is no resistance that will be born from these ashes,
11:16Gaza will be completely annexed,
11:19and so will the West Bank.
11:20And the big question is the ethnic cleansing within Israel,
11:25that is, the Palestinians of 1948,
11:27who, according to Netanyahu's project,
11:31those who think like him, will or should be sent to the south of Lebanon.
11:37But when we see the number of weapons circulating in Syria today,
11:41with all these factions,
11:43and this new front opened by Israel on Syria,
11:48won't that have an impact too?
11:51Wouldn't there be a resistance that could come from that region, from Syria?
11:55The story is interesting because often we try to create a context that is favorable to us.
12:02On the short and medium term, it can work.
12:05But we don't know what could happen in the long term.
12:08I'll give you an example of what happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein's fall.
12:12For a few years, everyone was happy,
12:15it was the new Iraq, democratic, developed.
12:18What happened next?
12:20A new resistance was born against the American occupation,
12:25against the presence of Israel in Palestine.
12:28We saw what happened last year,
12:30the support of the Iraqi resistance movements.
12:34It is very possible that in a few years
12:38a new resistance will be born within today's Syria,
12:42a Syria that will be weakened,
12:43but that will also be the bedrock of a new movement.
12:46When that will happen, we don't know.
12:48But I think very strongly that it will happen.
12:51Because we cannot erase a millennial culture,
12:55a political culture of the lower parties,
12:57a very anchored Arabness within the unconscious or collective Syrian conscience.
13:04And the sworn enemy of the Syrians has always been Israel.
13:07I don't think it's easy,
13:09and it would be naive to think that one day we will create a new Syrian citizen who will forget all of this.
13:17You talk about the future,
13:18it brings me to our region, to our continent, Yunus Abu Ayyub.
13:23Could there be a butterfly effect of what happened today in Syria?
13:28It's a game changer for all geopolitics, certainly in the Middle East.
13:34But what about Africa?
13:35Could there be a butterfly effect or indirect impacts on our continent,
13:39on certain countries in our continent?
13:41And if so, how?
13:42It's very good that you're talking about this,
13:43because often we tend to see the events of history as isolated events.
13:48But the events of history, especially when we read the history over a long period of time,
13:53it's a puzzle.
13:54Maybe we don't immediately see the points of connection between such and such events,
13:59but they are all connected.
14:01For example, what happened in Syria and before, what happened on 7 October,
14:05is directly related to what is happening much further away, in Europe,
14:10with the war between Ukraine and Russia.
14:12It's the fluttering of a new world, which is struggling to be born, unfortunately.
14:19And I think that last year, when we had this discussion,
14:22more or less in December, I think, or November,
14:27you said that we are in a phase where there will be a lot of conflict in the world,
14:33and that...
14:35Unfortunately, you were right.
14:37And so I think that all this will continue.
14:40The effect it will have on Africa,
14:43there won't be a ricochet, not only the fact that there may be conflicts,
14:46but the question is not there.
14:48It's that we're talking about development, we're talking about economy,
14:51we're talking about a new model on a global level.
14:56But there are countries, precisely,
14:59whose regime looks a lot like Bashar al-Assad's.
15:02Absolutely.
15:02Isn't that a risk?
15:04And they are historic allies of Bashar al-Assad.
15:06Without naming them, I know that you are in the United Nations,
15:09but isn't that a risk to destabilize these nations?
15:13I think there is a great risk, they know it.
15:15I think that Africa...
15:17We have seen what has happened in recent years,
15:18the coups d'état in some sub-Saharan countries,
15:21the return of a kind of nationalism, pan-Africanism.
15:27I think it will continue,
15:29because African societies realize that the promises they were made
15:35a long time after independence have not been fulfilled.
15:40Even worse is that things are moving backwards,
15:42on the level of governance, on the level of economic development and so on.
15:45On the geopolitical level, I think that if we don't pay attention,
15:53we could see a kind of remake of the Great Gulf War,
15:58the first Gulf War, Iraq-Iran, in the major states of our region.
16:04And that would be very dangerous.
16:06We will have to be careful about that.
16:09Speaking of independence,
16:11when we see an initiative like the Africa-Atlantic Initiative,
16:14there is just one, almost day by day.
16:18On November 6, 2023, His Majesty Laurent Mohammed VI
16:21will launch this ambitious project of an Africa-Atlantic.
16:27Isn't that a means, in your opinion, of a new independence,
16:32of governance, of the first African matter?
16:35What we regret, finally, is that the West has squandered
16:40the resources of Africa, and then Africa has not really benefited.
16:44And there, with this initiative,
16:46including this gas that will be off-shore and that will benefit 13 countries anyway,
16:52won't that give a new independence, finally,
16:55to these 20 countries on the Atlantic coast of Africa,
17:00in addition, let's remember, to the Sahel countries?
17:03The basic idea, that's it.
17:05The goal is to be able to allow these states to use their resources,
17:11either on a national level, or in common,
17:14to create the right conditions for the development of their countries.
17:18That doesn't mean that we will turn away from Mediterranean relations,
17:23or with the Middle East or others.
17:26It's another tool, another way to maximize these chances for development.
17:33That said, it remains, are all these countries you just mentioned,
17:39are on the same wavelength?
17:41Most of them. They are already engaged in the process of the states of the Atlantic Africa.
17:46Except for one exception, which you certainly know,
17:49which is a bit tied to obsolete ideologies,
17:54given the past, which persists in the way of managing.
17:59But if we see that the majority of countries are engaged in this process of the Atlantic Africa,
18:04what does that change?
18:05What symbol does it refer to the international community
18:09to also join these projects, because they have to be financed?
18:13Well, in terms of financing, you also have to...
18:16You know, there is the 2030 Agenda, which will end in...
18:19We have six years left to achieve the goals of sustainable development, the 17.
18:24There is, among these goals, a very important angle,
18:28that of self-financing the states of their own development.
18:31Because we have waited for a very, very long time
18:33for the developed countries of the North to give 0.5% of the GDP
18:38to the developing countries.
18:39We didn't see it coming.
18:40We have also waited for foreign and direct investments for a very long time.
18:44But unfortunately, they always come with conditions.
18:47So maybe these divisions, which we are talking about today,
18:51will be able to raise the necessary financial resources within these states
18:57to lead, to manage their own development in an independent and sovereign way.
19:03I think that if we succeed in doing this,
19:05we will have created a new alternative to development,
19:09which we are suffering from to this day.
19:10But if we continue in the same pattern,
19:13and we talked about this earlier in the session,
19:16replicate the same pattern and work within the same framework of development
19:21as we have known it so far,
19:23I don't think we will succeed.
19:25So it's a question of sovereignty,
19:28of common, but sovereign decisions of these states
19:32to lead and put in place a new way of development.
19:37A new way of development and a democracy
19:39that is built on an individual pattern of African countries,
19:45that is not imported, dictated by the West.
19:48And I think we are heading towards this today in Africa.
19:50I think so, I absolutely think so.
19:52Because one of the big problems, let's not forget,
19:55is that modern democracy or modern state,
19:57in the sense of modernity, western modernity,
20:01has not been an organic path in these countries.
20:04And so the state that was born,
20:06the modern state that was born in Africa
20:07and in several Middle Eastern countries,
20:09was faced with a frontal shock with colonialism, with imperialism.
20:14And so we will have to review this pattern,
20:16because our societies have not organically evolved
20:20towards this western evolution.
20:22And so today we are trying to review all this.
20:25We don't have to be a copy of the West.
20:29Can we imagine a democracy, or even a governance?
20:33Because you are Director of Governance and Construction
20:36of State Institutions within the United Nations,
20:38I remind you for our viewers.
20:40And on this aspect of governance,
20:42we are talking about community, regional,
20:44but really purely economic.
20:46Can we talk about regional alliances
20:50that have this approach of governance
20:54and that will be able to solve governance problems
20:59for a particular country that is part of this alliance?
21:01Absolutely.
21:02There is a regional governance.
21:03First, we have to start with a national governance,
21:07because it is very important,
21:08because it is a sovereign decision within oneself.
21:12But beyond that,
21:14we can build a regional model of governance
21:18that works towards more freedom, more democracy,
21:23according to the context and the history of each one.
21:27And I think it is possible.
21:28For example, I will give you an example.
21:29I was going to ask you for an example.
21:32Let's imagine a country that is in conflict with its society
21:37for constitutional issues,
21:40or renewal of a presidential mandate, or something else.
21:43Maybe if we create this movement,
21:46or this regional organization, even informal,
21:49we could intervene in a peaceful, fraternal way
21:54and help solve situations like this
21:57to avoid a violent conflict.
21:59We are not always forced to look for solutions elsewhere,
22:05much further away from home,
22:06which unfortunately have added oil to the fire sometimes,
22:14consciously or not,
22:15and we end up creating a displacement of these states.
22:18I think we can find,
22:19as we can find earlier,
22:20I was telling you,
22:21an alternative development solution that suits us.
22:24We can also find an alternative solution that suits us
22:28to solve our own problems
22:30and, on a regional level,
22:31help each other to create a better governance.
22:36You know, there are only a few days left
22:40before this year, 2024,
22:42as rich as it is in reboundings,
22:43in fairly unprecedented events,
22:47ends and a new year begins.
22:50I can't help but ask you about your vision for 2025,
22:55Yonassa Bouayoub.
22:57Listen, I think 2025 will be a bit like the year of the repercussions of 2024.
23:03You know, the history of societies and peoples
23:06is not measured or counted by years,
23:09but by generations.
23:11I think what we saw last year...
23:13But these are events that have happened
23:15that will certainly impact at least one generation.
23:18Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely.
23:20There were three major events.
23:22The war, of course, which is raging in Europe,
23:25the war that is decimating states in West Asia,
23:30or what is called the Middle East,
23:32and the return of the Trump administration.
23:35These are three major events that will certainly
23:38have a great influence and impact next year.
23:41I think, unfortunately, in terms of conflict,
23:44there will be even more.
23:45I'm sorry to say that.
23:47I don't see any positive signs yet
23:50that will make me believe that tomorrow will be very peaceful,
23:55especially in our region.
23:58But we'll see.
23:59We'll see, of course.
24:00Because, as we said earlier, for Syria,
24:03it will be more and more chaos that will come out,
24:07in my opinion, of the Syrian borders,
24:11towards Lebanon, towards Iraq,
24:13perhaps even elsewhere.
24:14Jordan is really ahead of us in the future.
24:20It's the only stable country at the moment
24:23in the entire region.
24:24It's the Hashemite Kingdom.
24:27What we're experiencing today is a bit like 1919.
24:31It's 1919, and as Africans say,
24:35if you're not at the table,
24:36you're certainly on the menu.
24:38And unfortunately, that's the case.
24:40The Trump administration will arrive
24:42with great success in terms of foreign policy,
24:46and that will allow Trump to pacify,
24:50in quotes, this region.
24:53And those will be short-term solutions
24:58that will cause a lot more problems in the long term.
25:03I don't want to end this discussion
25:04on a pessimistic note, because in the end,
25:08I'm neither an optimist nor a pessimist.
25:11I simply think that the future is being built.
25:13It's not enough to wait and say,
25:15I feel this or I feel that.
25:18What we're going to decide today
25:20will be our tomorrow.
25:22Despite all these problems in this region
25:24and in the world, I sincerely believe
25:27that there is an opportunity to create
25:29a better tomorrow.
25:31And for that, we still have to be sure
25:37and have a vision of what we want
25:39and work for it.
25:41In short, the motto that guides me in my life
25:47and what I always try to tell people around me
25:50is that you always have to be a pessimist for a reason,
25:54but you have to keep the optimism of the will.
25:57It's not mine, it's from Gramsci, but I...
26:00It's from all Moroccans, I think,
26:01because Morocco is committed to this philosophy today.
26:04Absolutely.
26:05With all the development projects.
26:08Well, I hope that the future will not give you
26:11reason as it gave you reason today
26:13on your projections from last year.
26:15But in any case, it's always very, very enriching
26:19to talk with you, Younes Abou Ayoub,
26:21and to see a little bit how things...
26:24We can evolve in the past,
26:25how it could...
26:28What path it could take,
26:31given the several parameters that are so changing
26:34at the last minute, I want to say.
26:36In any case, it's always a pleasure, Younes Abou Ayoub.
26:38Thank you very much for giving us this interview
26:41and this show that we have dedicated to the great change of this world.
26:47So, it was a question of news
26:50that we shot on the side of the Atlantic Dialogues.
26:52They are held here in Rabat from the 12th to the 14th of December.
26:58We took the opportunity, once again,
27:00of the experts, of the eminent thinkers present here
27:04to question them on what is happening in the world and on the news.
27:08Thank you for following us.
27:10Have a great evening.