Russia and Iran were previously vital in helping Damascus regain control of most of the country. Will they be able to help Assad again? And what does Turkey hope to gain by backing the Islamist militant group that is leading the rebels? Aaron Stein, of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, speaks with DW.
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00:00And we can talk more about the global politics at play in Syria's war. I'm
00:04joined now by Aaron Stein. He's a president of the Foreign Policy Research
00:07Institute. Aaron good to have you on DW. Now Russia and Iran were vital in
00:12helping Damascus previously regain control of most of the country. Will they
00:16be able to help Assad again this time around? It feels like we're at the very
00:22beginning of when the Russians and the Iranians intervened in the Syrian civil
00:28war. And they initially intervened because they wanted to prevent the
00:32collapse of the Syrian regime. It was only after they stabilized the front
00:36lines that they went on offense to try and take back some territory, which they
00:40were ultimately successful in doing. So I expect in the next couple, let's say
00:4572 to 96 hours, an increase in Russian airstrikes, perhaps reports of
00:51Iraqi militias that are under the control or at least the sway of Iran
00:55moving into the conflict to try and ensure that Hama and anything south of
01:00it will not collapse further and that the regime will not totally lose
01:03control. On the other side, the Islamist militant group that is leading the
01:07rebels, HTS, is supported by Turkey. You have written extensively about Turkish
01:12foreign policy. So what do you think Turkey's endgame is here? Well I want to
01:18be clear, I don't think Turkey is exactly pulling the strings on everything that's
01:22happening in Syria. If I had to guess, the Turkish government was one, aware of
01:26what was about to happen, but two, caught off guard by the rapid collapse of the
01:31Syrian regime. And so they're rushing to figure it out just like we are. You know,
01:36HTS is sort of a wild card. They aren't directly under Turkish
01:39control. And so I think the challenge that Ankara is going to face is that
01:43they would rather prefer to hash this out with the Russians as the
01:49point of contact for Bashar al-Assad. And as part of that outreach to Bashar
01:54al-Assad, to ensure that the Kurds, the Syrian Kurds out in the northeast of the
01:59country, don't gain any more autonomy or sort of gain more control over territory
02:05along the Turkish-Syrian border, that Ankara views as a security threat. So it
02:10looks like here are two scenarios, right? Either an Islamist militant group with
02:15a jihadist ideology takes over power in Syria, or Assad stays on, an authoritarian
02:20leader accused of torturing opponents, who's wanted for alleged complicity in
02:24war crimes. At this point, which is the more likely outcome? I think the most
02:31likely outcome is eventually the front line will stabilize, the Russians will
02:34intervene, and the opposition, that includes HTS, will control more territory.
02:40And that Turkey and others will try and wrest concessions out of the regime to
02:46sort of negotiate directly with these opposition movements. The regime has
02:50never, under any circumstances, contemplated really making concessions.
02:55So I think you see, you know, the most likely outcome here is somewhere in the
02:58middle, which is this conflict continues, albeit without a satisfactory end for
03:03any of the parties. Because we have to remember the people that are most messed
03:07up, or at least that faces the largest consequences from this, are just normal
03:11folks who can't escape the conflict. They were just trying to live day to day
03:14lives in a conflict zone, now going on over a decade.
03:18Yeah, and tens of thousands have already been been displaced in this last bout of
03:22fighting. What could the the regional consequence now zooming out of what's
03:27happening in Syria at the moment be?
03:31You have a really interesting dynamic in that one of the challenges Iran is
03:34facing is that it's been beaten down and hit very hard by the Israelis, stemming
03:40from the Israeli reaction to the October 7th attacks coming from Gaza.
03:45We just saw sort of the ceasefire or sort of, quote unquote, ceasefire.
03:48I'm not clear if it's going to stay in place.
03:52And so you have a weakened Iran and regional dynamics where, you know, the
04:00ability of any external actor to really direct this conflict will be challenging.
04:06That was Aaron Stein from the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
04:08Thank you so much.
04:11My pleasure.