英雄たちの選択 2024年12月9日
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00:00In August 2024, an earthquake in the Miyazaki Prefecture, known as the Hyuganada Earthquake,
00:08was the first time that the Nankai Truffle Earthquake had been reported as a temporary event.
00:17In the next 30 years, the danger of a large-scale earthquake, which is said to occur with a 70% to 80% chance, is increasing.
00:28The Nankai Truffle Earthquake, which has repeatedly occurred in the past,
00:33last occurred just 80 years ago.
00:40In 19th century, the magnitude 7.9 Nankai Earthquake struck the Tokai region.
00:50About 54,000 houses were destroyed.
00:55The number of dead and missing people rose to 1,223.
01:02However, the next day's newspaper hardly reported the damage caused by the earthquake.
01:12If the United Nations knows that a large-scale earthquake was caused by an earthquake at the end of the Pacific War,
01:19it is certain that they will be subjected to weakness.
01:25The government imposed a thorough regulation on the media,
01:29and the people hid the true nature of the Nankai Truffle Earthquake.
01:37In the middle of the war, the information was not disclosed,
01:41and no supplies or people came.
01:43No one came.
01:44Nothing came.
01:45We had no choice but to do something on our own.
01:49I hear a lot of such stories.
01:51Two years later, the Showa Nankai Earthquake occurred.
02:00The Great Earthquake occurred consecutively on the Nankai Truffle.
02:05At that time, there was a person who was trying to prevent this from happening in advance.
02:12Earthquake scientist Akitsune Imamura.
02:16Imamura, who was once warned about the occurrence of the Great Kanto Earthquake,
02:21was called a scoundrel by the public.
02:30For the sake of his revenge, Imamura went to the Nankai Truffle Earthquake site.
02:36Imamura headed to the site of the Nankai Truffle Earthquake.
02:43He set up observation posts all over the place through the materials,
02:47and tried to prevent the earthquake from happening in advance.
02:52What did the great earthquake scientist aim for?
02:56Experts have their own point of view.
03:01I think the great earthquake is a fortunate person
03:05who has learned from the point of view of the citizens
03:08that if we prepare and take measures to some extent,
03:11we will be able to reduce the number of casualties.
03:15I have the image that he is a man who has fought against the earthquake
03:21and is preparing to know the future of the earthquake in advance.
03:28The Nankai Truffle Earthquake, which is currently expected to be the worst,
03:37From the history of the struggle of the earthquake scientists
03:40who once faced the disaster hidden in the country,
03:44we look back on what we should do now.
03:57The Nankai Truffle Earthquake
04:23Good evening, everyone.
04:24Good evening.
04:25The choice was made by the heroes at the turning point in history.
04:29What did they think and worry about at that time?
04:33And what would you do?
04:36Here is the theme for this time.
04:39The Nankai Truffle Earthquake that occurred in the 19th century during the war
04:46and the earthquake scientist Akitsune Imamura.
04:50Mr. Isora, what is your impression of the Nankai Truffle Earthquake?
04:54The magnitude of the damage to Aichi Prefecture and Shizuoka Prefecture was unprecedented.
05:01However, Japan was at war at that time,
05:05so it was not known to the people due to information control at the time of the war.
05:10In that sense, I think it is one of the dark histories of Japan.
05:14Akitsune Imamura faced such an unknown Nankai Truffle Earthquake.
05:20What kind of earthquake scientist was he?
05:23He was a person who demonstrated the ability of reincarnation
05:27against the abnormal situation and the unpredictable situation.
05:31I think he is a genius when it comes to addressing the danger.
05:37How Akitsune Imamura faced the earthquake
05:41will be an important lesson for us who are next to the disaster.
05:47First, let's take a look at what kind of earthquake the Showa Nankai itself was.
05:53Aichi Prefecture, Nagoya Prefecture
06:02Here is a record of the Great Earthquake that once struck the Tokai region.
06:09Aichi Prefecture, Nagoya Prefecture
06:15Here is a record of the Great Earthquake that once struck the Tokai region.
06:25The Great Earthquake of the Showa Nankai,
06:29which occurred at 1.36 p.m. on December 7, 1919,
06:34had a magnitude of 7.9.
06:40It was a large-scale earthquake that caused the Nankai Truffle
06:45in the southeast of Mie Prefecture.
06:50In eight prefectures, including Aichi and Shizuoka Prefecture,
06:55a magnitude of 5.0 or higher shook the area.
06:59It is recorded that 17,000 houses were completely destroyed
07:03and 36,000 houses were destroyed.
07:09In Mie Prefecture, a tsunami occurred
07:12and the total number of dead and missing people in the country reached 1,223.
07:19But at that time, the size of the damage was unknown to the people.
07:29The day after the earthquake
07:34The picture of Emperor Showa in a military uniform
07:37was displayed on each side of the wall.
07:42This day was the anniversary of the third year of the Pacific War,
07:47and we can see many articles about war and peace.
07:54The earthquake was recorded on three sides,
07:57and only the fact of the occurrence was recorded.
08:04All the major newspapers were printed in the same style.
08:12What was the reality of the Showa Nankai Earthquake
08:17that was not reported?
08:25Three years after the Pacific War,
08:28Japan was in the middle of a tough battle.
08:33Japan's Air Force
08:3860% of Japan's aviation industry was concentrated in the Tokai region,
08:43and it was also a target of the US military.
08:53This is the headquarters of Handa City in Aichi Prefecture.
08:57At that time, there was a military factory that represented Japan.
09:04Mr. Takeshi Sagiya of the University of Nagoya guided us to the site.
09:14This is the site of the earthquake.
09:18It is a stone monument that represents
09:23the great damage caused by the Showa Nankai Earthquake.
09:28After the Earthquake, a jewelry factory was built here.
09:33After the war,
09:35a factory to make a fighter aircraft called the Nakajima Aircraft
09:40was built here in the 18th year of the Showa Era.
09:44The factory was rebuilt as a jewelry factory.
09:50The Nakajima Aircraft was the largest military aircraft manufacturer in Japan.
09:58The Handa City factory, which was called the most modern factory in the world,
10:03had a total area of 2.7 million square meters and 29,000 employees.
10:09It was a base for military production in Japan.
10:17Gakuto and others were mobilized from all over the country to work there.
10:27Young people aged 13 to 16 were forced to work hard for 10 hours a day.
10:39The sudden earthquake that struck them was a sudden earthquake.
10:49The people who were mobilized to the factory talked about the situation at the time.
10:58It was as if the sky had turned upside down.
11:01I heard a loud noise.
11:04Dozens of people fell to the ground.
11:09I saw a piece of brick weighing tens of kilograms.
11:15It was a brick.
11:16I saw a lump on my back.
11:20It was suffocating.
11:23The factory that had been rebuilt as a jewelry factory
11:27was weak against earthquakes.
11:29So it was not well prepared for the earthquake.
11:36In addition, after the quake,
11:39it was recorded in the report that the pillars and walls of the factory were removed.
11:52The factory, which was in a state of uneasiness, collapsed due to the shaking of the earthquake.
12:01Gakuto and others, who rushed to the exit to evacuate,
12:04became the base of the collapsed building.
12:11The statue of Junnan Gakuto, who was buried for their sacrifice.
12:1897 people died in the quake.
12:22There was a reason for the number of victims.
12:29It was a new land that had been built in the Edo period.
12:34The earthquake was amplified by the soft ground.
12:39But it was a new, flat land.
12:43It was very easy to build a factory.
12:47So I built a big factory.
12:50But I didn't have enough material,
12:53so it collapsed due to the quake in the East and the South.
13:01This damage was made public after a while after the war.
13:06Why didn't the newspaper at the time report it immediately?
13:11Why didn't the newspaper at the time report it immediately?
13:19The reason was found at the National Library in 2004.
13:30At the time, the newspaper was the government's window to the press.
13:35It was the office of the chief supervisor.
13:44There was a message from the government to the newspaper on the day of the quake.
13:56It said,
13:58It said,
14:04It said,
14:12It said,
14:22The quake in the South was very big.
14:26Many factories were destroyed, and many people died.
14:30The Japanese government at the time understood that this was a big damage,
14:35and that it should not be made public.
14:39So it was afraid to make it public.
14:42I think that's the story.
14:46The government, which was afraid of being made public about the quake,
14:51issued a strict warning to the people who were affected.
14:58As a result, the affected areas were not able to receive relief supplies from various places,
15:05and the reconstruction of the city did not proceed at all.
15:14The Japanese government tried to deceive the people and hide the quake desperately.
15:20But it all ended in vain.
15:28The day after the quake,
15:30the United States announced that there had been a devastating quake in the center of Japan.
15:42And on December 13, just six days after the quake,
15:48the United States began a large-scale air raid.
15:54The target was an aircraft factory in Aichi Prefecture, which was damaged by the quake.
16:02The Tokai region was hit by a devastating blow.
16:05And a month later, there was an attack.
16:09January 13, 1950
16:14On January 13, 1950,
16:17a magnitude 6.8 inland direct hit earthquake, the Mikawa quake, occurred in Aichi Prefecture.
16:28Although the magnitude of the quake was small,
16:31the number of casualties was 2,306,
16:34which was higher than that of the Showa East Japan Earthquake.
16:38Why did the damage increase so much?
16:45Recently, Mr. Kimura asked the victims,
16:48and he said he saw a reason.
16:55When I asked the victims,
16:57after the first quake,
16:59they said,
17:02I have to fix it.
17:04For example, I have to reinforce the place where the pillars and beams are connected.
17:09It seems that such a story was told in many houses,
17:13but there are few carpenters who can fix it because there is a shortage of materials during the war.
17:19Then the direct hit earthquake in Mikawa happened,
17:22and the house that was weak was completely destroyed.
17:26If the war hadn't happened,
17:28I think the damage and the response would have been very different.
17:35A series of tragedies that happened for the sake of being in the middle of a war.
17:40At that time, the reality of the disaster that had been hidden
17:44is now finally being made clear.
17:47Earthquake in Mikawa
17:52This time, we have two experts with us.
17:55Thank you for coming.
17:57Thank you for having me.
17:59First of all, Mr. Takeshi Sagiya,
18:01who also appeared in the local coverage.
18:03Thank you for having me.
18:05Mr. Sagiya, what kind of earthquake was this Showa East Japan Earthquake?
18:09It was quite a long time ago.
18:11It was said that it was a hidden earthquake
18:16where proper knowledge was not widely known in the world.
18:22Researchers surveyed the site and left various materials.
18:29They excavated such things,
18:31and the survey of those who actually experienced it was carried out for a long time after 2000.
18:38It is now finally clear how people responded to such damage.
18:48And the first person in disaster prevention and emergency management,
18:51Mr. Takehiko Yamamura.
18:53Thank you for having me.
18:55Mr. Yamamura, you are conducting a local survey of the world's disasters.
18:59What do you think of this Showa East Japan Earthquake?
19:02It was a time when the war was raging.
19:05In November, the earthquake in Saipan Island,
19:10a base where the main island of Japan can be bombed,
19:13and in November, a new type of bomber bombed Tokyo.
19:20At that time, in December, the Tōnankai earthquake occurred.
19:25There was already food in a state of despair.
19:29There were no supplies of support in the earthquake.
19:34Some of them were short of medicine.
19:40I think it was painful for the victims at that time.
19:44It was the Showa Tōnankai Earthquake that caused great damage,
19:47but it was hardly reported in the newspapers at that time.
19:51Why did it become like this?
19:53In 1941, when Japan and the U.S. began fighting the Shinjū-1 attack,
19:58we created a newspaper and a newspaper business order.
20:03Small companies were grouped into one newspaper company,
20:07and large companies were grouped into two.
20:12The Ministry of Internal Affairs established it as an institution.
20:16So when I saw it earlier, all the newspapers looked the same.
20:19It became a newspaper like Shintarōame.
20:23At first, the military and the police believed that they were doing it
20:28to win the war and protect the lives, property, and nation of the people.
20:33But when I actually saw it, it was the other way around.
20:38During the war, people's actions were under the control of the government.
20:45Even the young middle school students who were killed in the war
20:50couldn't talk about various things because they were in self-isolation.
20:55When I saw that the country's control came into the people's interior,
21:00I felt a little uneasy.
21:03Originally, if there was no war,
21:06high school students, junior high school students,
21:09members of the student union, and people in the lower echelons would not have died.
21:13But because it was under the control of the government,
21:16people didn't gather at home, and they couldn't go back to school.
21:20So there was a possibility that after the Great Earthquake,
21:24there would be an earthquake similar to the one in Ryoshin.
21:30If the measures had been announced in advance,
21:35I think it would have been possible to deal with it.
21:39But because of the state of emergency,
21:42if the information is manipulated too much,
21:45it will damage the national interest and the people's interest.
21:48Before the war, the number of casualties will increase.
21:51So it's not a very good thing.
21:54I see.
21:56There was an earthquake that has always been a threat to us.
22:00There was an earthquake scientist who risked his life to reduce the damage.
22:04Please take a look.
22:07The Showa Earthquake that occurred in Nankai Truffle 80 years ago.
22:13There is a person who was trying to prevent this earthquake from occurring.
22:22Earthquake scientist Aki Tsune Imamura.
22:28He is a person who was once named Horafuki by the public.
22:37The Showa Earthquake occurred 39 years ago,
22:4138 years after the Meiji Restoration.
22:47At that time, Imamura, a 35-year-old female professor at Tokyo Imperial University,
22:52published a paper.
22:55He wrote about the possibility of a major earthquake in Tokyo.
23:02Imamura said,
23:06If a major earthquake occurs in Tokyo,
23:10more than 100,000 people will die,
23:13and the loss of property will be several billion yen.
23:20Why did Imamura publish this paper?
23:24Masayuki Takemura, a researcher of the major earthquake in Tokyo, said,
23:32In a word,
23:35he wanted to prevent the fire that occurs during an earthquake.
23:41In particular, he wanted to say that
23:46the firepower of Tokyo was extremely close to that of an earthquake.
23:52So, if an earthquake occurs,
23:55Tokyo will be completely burned down,
23:58and 100,000 people will die.
24:02It's a kind of inheritance, isn't it?
24:07Imamura wanted to emphasize the strengthening of the disaster response
24:11in preparation for an unexpected earthquake.
24:15However, the paper spread to the world in an unexpected way.
24:23The newspaper published a sensational article
24:27about the major earthquake.
24:34The response was great,
24:37and people began to evacuate in a hurry.
24:41It even caused a commotion that the police were dispatched.
24:47Imamura's boss, the first person in the earthquake department,
24:51Oomori Fusakichi,
24:53reported to the newspaper to stop the commotion.
24:59He denied that the major earthquake in Tokyo
25:03was a nonsensical and baseless story.
25:08Because of this, Imamura was seen by the world
25:12as a white-eyed person.
25:21However, 18 years after Imamura published the paper,
25:25on September 1, 1912,
25:30the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred.
25:34Many people lost their lives in the fire,
25:38and Tokyo was burned to the ground.
25:43The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred.
25:47Many people lost their lives in the fire,
25:50and Tokyo was burned to the ground.
26:00After the earthquake, Imamura's reputation was ruined.
26:04The media called him the God of Earthquake
26:07because he predicted a major earthquake.
26:13On the other hand, Imamura himself
26:16wrote about the Great East Japan Earthquake.
26:22What I couldn't accept in the world
26:26was my inexperience in research
26:29and my lack of confidence.
26:32It's a shame and I can't stand it.
26:35HIDEAKI IMAMURA
26:40Higashiya Imamura, Imamura's grandson,
26:43said something like this about the situation in Imamura at the time.
26:47Higeaki Imagawa, Grandson of Higashiya Imamura
26:51Higeaki Imagawa, Grandson of Higashiya Imamura
26:54Higeaki Imagawa, Grandson of Higashiya Imamura
26:57I was stuck in the memories of my record
27:00when I was a human being
27:03That's what it says.
27:06That's why I was so worried.
27:14Even so, Imamura went back to his research on earthquakes.
27:19In the book he wrote after the quake,
27:22Imamura's determination is shown.
27:26Imamura's research on earthquakes
27:29One of them is to prevent the disaster.
27:33The other one is to prevent the earthquake.
27:38I have been thinking about this for two decades.
27:42I think that's what's contained in this book.
27:49After the Great Kanto Earthquake,
27:52Imamura's research on earthquakes became even more passionate.
28:00The subject of his research is the Nankai Trough.
28:07In the Nankai Trough,
28:09huge earthquakes have occurred every 100 to 150 years.
28:15More than 70 years have passed since the last earthquake.
28:22The Nankai Trough
28:25Imamura wrote a new paper in the 3rd year of the Showa Era.
28:30In order to prevent the next earthquake in the Nankai Trough,
28:34he advocated the immediate investigation of seismic fluctuations.
28:39Seismic Fluctuations
28:44Imamura believed that an earthquake scientist should
28:47pursue an earthquake forecast
28:50and take measures to reduce the number of earthquakes.
28:57This was a strange idea in Japanese seismology
29:01at the time, which aimed to explain the earthquake phenomenon.
29:09There were various theories at the time.
29:12There was a theory that the earthquake was caused by an earthquake
29:16in the Nankai Trough, and there was a theory that it was caused by an earthquake.
29:21Imamura said,
29:23I don't think you understand that.
29:26But if you observe the earthquake on the ground,
29:32no matter what the cause is,
29:35you should be able to catch the irregularities.
29:39Imamura thought that the earthquake prevention was the ultimate goal
29:47of seismology.
29:59Imamura's earthquake forecast research was not understood by the people around him.
30:03He was not able to get a satisfactory budget from the government.
30:12So Imamura went around capitalists and companies
30:16to collect support funds.
30:24He also studied the rewards he received from the public
30:28and invested them in his research.
30:35And in the 3rd year of the Showa Era,
30:38the Nankai Autonomous Research Institute was established
30:42in Wakayama Prefecture to study the earthquake.
30:48It was a simple facility with observation equipment
30:52and minimal equipment.
30:59In order to gather more data,
31:02observation facilities were set up in various places in Kinkyo and Shikoku.
31:12Imamura said that he invested most of his fortune
31:16in the operation of this observation facility.
31:23There is a precious video of Imamura at the time.
31:29Imamura traveled to the areas where he was at risk of disaster
31:33and investigated the quality of the soil and buildings.
31:41He continued to work hard on the earthquake prevention system.
31:50However, the Showa Nankai Autonomous Research Institute
31:54was in danger of an earthquake.
32:06We have seen the struggle of Akitsune Imamura
32:09before the Showa Nankai Earthquake.
32:12Mr. Yamamura, what do you think of the earthquake scientist, Imamura?
32:17There was a debate about whether the Great Kanto Earthquake
32:21would occur within 50 years.
32:24Mr. Oomori, who was the opponent of the debate,
32:27was 2 years older than Mr. Imamura,
32:29so he was only 2 years older than Mr. Oomori.
32:32However, he was recognized by the people around him early on.
32:36On the other hand, Mr. Imamura,
32:38even if he became a professor of earthquake science,
32:41he was almost unpaid.
32:43In order to make up for that,
32:45he had to become a math teacher for the Rikugun.
32:49Mr. Imamura was born to the son of the founder of the Satsuma clan.
32:54Since he was a child, he was known for being intelligent.
32:58His relatives and friends said that he was a well-off man
33:02and that he must have been carrying a lot on his back.
33:07Mr. Sagiya, as an earthquake scientist,
33:10what do you think of Mr. Imamura?
33:13Mr. Oomori was an iron-loving person.
33:16He was able to connect and think
33:19in a way that would have been revolutionary at the time.
33:23I think he was a very good scientist
33:26because he was able to collect
33:29old documents from the Edo period
33:32and he had a good relationship with them.
33:39Mr. Oomori was an iron-loving person.
33:43In the world of mathematics,
33:46it is a theorem that can be proven,
33:49but it is not possible to prove it accurately.
33:52It is called prediction.
33:54Oomori's theorem is a law,
33:56and Mr. Imamura's theory is a prediction.
33:59The intuition of this prediction
34:02is not something that is of no value in science.
34:05It is very important and useful.
34:08Mr. Imamura is well-informed about earthquakes.
34:11He is able to collect data for the next earthquake
34:14and use it to make predictions.
34:17This is the kind of thing that Mr. Imamura has.
34:20If you only hear the word prediction,
34:23it sounds like you are trying to predict the future.
34:26I think that's what it means now.
34:29Mr. Sagiya, what is the prediction
34:32that Mr. Imamura wanted to make in the first place?
34:35It is a case of the past that Mr. Imamura was paying attention to.
34:38A few hours before the earthquake,
34:41there was a record that the coast was flooded
34:44and the bottom of the sea appeared.
34:47If there is data that indicates
34:50that the coast is flooded,
34:53it indicates that the earthquake is ahead.
34:56If there is data that indicates
34:59that the earthquake is ahead,
35:02it is important information
35:05that can be used to predict the future.
35:08I think that's what Mr. Imamura was thinking.
35:11Does it mean that you want people to make predictions
35:14and take action?
35:17That's right.
35:20In order to actually collect such data,
35:23we built an observation deck,
35:26but in addition to that,
35:29we spread knowledge about earthquakes.
35:32For example, there is a famous saying
35:35that Inamura's fire evacuated the people.
35:38It seems that such efforts were also made.
35:41The earthquake is prepared to some extent
35:44and if measures are taken,
35:47it will lead to a reduction in damage.
35:50It is explained in detail and easily understandable
35:53in the park and other places.
35:56It is a simple proposal
35:59and I think that he is a fortunate person
36:02who has been able to think about things
36:05and make proposals.
36:08He had a great view of life.
36:11That's right.
36:14I think it was very important
36:17that people did not die
36:20and that they did not cause
36:23a situation where life was cut off from the beginning.
36:26People in Kagoshima
36:29used to teach soldiers
36:32and prepare them for the enemy.
36:35If they do that,
36:38they will have to prepare for the earthquake
36:41to some extent.
36:44If there is no satellite,
36:47there is no GPS,
36:50and there is no observation point
36:53that can be used.
36:56It is very important that people
36:59gather all the information
37:02they need
37:05and start preparing
37:08for the earthquake.
37:11I think it is natural
37:14that people start preparing
37:17for the earthquake
37:21Akitsune Imamura, an earthquake historian,
37:24began observing the Nankai Truffle earthquake
37:27in the 3rd year of the Shōwa Era.
37:33Then,
37:36he noticed a change in the ground
37:39on the coast of Wakayama.
37:44Imamura sent a letter to the newspaper
37:47that there was a possibility
37:50of a major earthquake,
37:53but the response was not optimistic.
38:01In the Shōwa 16,
38:04when Imamura was 71 years old,
38:07the Pacific War broke out.
38:11In Imamura's Nankai Autonomous Research Institute,
38:14there was a shortage of materials
38:17such as record sheets for observation.
38:22In addition,
38:25the people of the observatory
38:28were targeted by the Japanese Army
38:31and were taken as ammunition.
38:35We had a facility for observation
38:38in Shihide,
38:41but due to the war,
38:44it was no longer possible to operate it.
38:47In that sense,
38:50we may have resented the war.
38:53If we had continued to observe,
38:56we could have continued
38:59to collect valuable data.
39:05Despite this,
39:08Imamura continued to stick to the earthquake forecast.
39:11His idea was to expand
39:14the observation range of the earthquake
39:17to Aichi Prefecture and Shizuoka Prefecture.
39:20However, at that time,
39:23the area was in need of national defense
39:26and was under military control.
39:30Imamura ran around
39:33to look for an observation range
39:36without being able to create a pressure with the government.
39:43In the 19th century,
39:46he finally succeeded in installing
39:49a new measuring device on the Atsumi Peninsula.
39:52However,
39:55right after that,
39:58the Tōnankai earthquake occurred.
40:05As it was during the war,
40:08the damage caused by the earthquake
40:11was huge.
40:16Imamura wrote to
40:19an earthquake expert who was
40:22the editor-in-chief.
40:26The warning of the earthquake
40:29was a warning to us.
40:32Why didn't we be more passionate
40:35and keep our faith alive?
40:38I can't understand.
40:52In the next year of the Tōnankai earthquake,
40:54the war came to an end.
41:01Imamura, who was 75 years old,
41:04was forced to make a choice
41:07as to how he would continue
41:10his research on earthquakes.
41:14The war that had been hindering
41:17the research on earthquakes
41:20has finally come to an end.
41:23Now is the time to raise the country
41:26and restart the observation
41:29for the earthquake prevention.
41:35The future is bright.
41:43The Tōnankai earthquake
41:46may attack Japan.
41:52In order to prevent the damage,
41:55the observation system must be strengthened
41:58and the disaster prevention must be carried out.
42:05However, after the war,
42:08something unexpected happened to Imamura.
42:14In 1951, the GHQ, which had occupied Japan,
42:17issued an executive order
42:20to expel the military and nationalists.
42:26Even if Imamura had cooperated with the military,
42:29he would have been expelled
42:32and his income would have been cut.
42:36Imamura, who had devoted all his resources
42:39to observing earthquakes,
42:42was forced to farm at home.
42:49In order to restart the observatory
42:52that had been shut down in the war,
42:55he had no money at all.
42:59Now that all the people
43:02are living a hard life,
43:05is there any meaning
43:08in the forecast of an earthquake
43:11that we do not know when it will occur?
43:17No matter how many disasters
43:20we have suffered so far,
43:23we could not suppress the damage of the earthquake.
43:29As an earthquake scholar,
43:32I may have to stick to the forecast.
43:42Should he continue to stick to the forecast,
43:45or not?
43:48It was time for Imamura to make a choice.
43:52After the war,
43:55Imamura was forced to live a hard life.
43:58Should he continue to stick to the forecast
44:01for the next earthquake,
44:04or not?
44:07If you were Imamura,
44:10which would you choose?
44:13Mr. Yamamura, please.
44:16I think it is a tough choice.
44:20But I would like to continue to stick to the forecast.
44:28I think Mr. Yamamura
44:31was regretful.
44:34After the Great East Japan Earthquake,
44:37he saw many earthquakes
44:40and great damage.
44:43He felt a sense of duty
44:46and a sense of responsibility.
44:49On the other hand,
44:52he was trying to overcome the sense of helplessness.
44:58As long as I can,
45:01I will continue to stick to the forecast
45:04as long as I can.
45:09Mr. Sagiya, which do you choose?
45:13I choose to quit the second earthquake forecast.
45:19I hope you don't get me wrong.
45:22Mr. Imamura decided to quit the earthquake forecast.
45:25I think it was necessary
45:28to continue the effort of the earthquake forecast.
45:31The reason for increasing the results
45:34is not a matter of one researcher
45:37working for decades
45:40but a matter of developing a person
45:43who can follow his or her footsteps.
45:49I think he was able to continue
45:52because he was good at disseminating knowledge.
45:58I think it would have been better
46:01if he had been able to divide it.
46:06Mr. Yasuda, which do you choose?
46:10I choose to continue the earthquake forecast.
46:15Mr. Imamura, you are 75 years old.
46:18Do you think you can live another 3 or 5 years?
46:21However,
46:24the Nankai earthquake is likely to occur again
46:27in the near future.
46:30The reason for this is that
46:33the Nankai earthquake occurred
46:36the day after the earthquake
46:39and the Nankai earthquake occurred
46:42the next day,
46:45so it is highly likely that
46:48the Nankai earthquake will occur again
46:51in the Kochi and Tokushima prefectures.
46:54The observation net that was built
46:57in the Kochi and Tokushima prefectures
47:00may survive.
47:03So I choose to continue the earthquake forecast
47:06I think it would be good
47:09to be able to predict the future.
47:12In order to pursue the forecast,
47:15we must make efforts
47:18to accumulate data,
47:21so I think that research must continue
47:24in the future.
47:27It is also a result that we can understand
47:30that we cannot predict the future.
47:33We may not be able to predict the future
47:36with a measuring device,
47:39but it is a result of research.
47:42We should not say that
47:45we can predict the future
47:48by only doing what we can do.
47:51I think that is the position of science.
47:54From the perspective of earthquake research,
47:57I think that there is an earthquake
48:00that accompanies an earthquake
48:03like the Maibute earthquake.
48:06If we can interpret it correctly,
48:09we may be able to predict the earthquake itself.
48:12However, it is not yet possible
48:15to predict the magnitude
48:18or the extent of the impact
48:21before the earthquake occurs.
48:30Akitsune Himamura left a will
48:33that he wrote during the war.
48:39After the war,
48:42he wrote what he would do
48:45for the earthquake prevention observatory.
48:51I wrote that I would reduce my business
48:54during the war,
48:57but I would like it to be revived.
49:00I reduced my business during the war,
49:03but I would like it to be revived.
49:06I think it is clear that
49:09he was burning his belief
49:12in order to predict the magnitude
49:15or the extent of the earthquake.
49:18After the war,
49:21Himamura continued to stick to
49:24his will for the earthquake prevention observatory.
49:31In 1927,
49:34after being expelled from his post,
49:37Himamura submitted his thesis
49:40to the Japanese Academy of Sciences
49:43in his tough life.
49:47Now that the Showa Earthquake
49:50has hit the Tokai region,
49:53the next thing to watch out for
49:56is the Great Earthquake
49:59from Kii Peninsula to Shikoku.
50:05In December of this year,
50:08Himamura sent a letter
50:11to the mayor of Muroto, Kochi Prefecture.
50:16He said,
50:19there may be a great earthquake
50:22in the Nankai-do-Oki area.
50:25He asked for an emergency repair
50:28of the damaged observatory.
50:31However,
50:34on the very day
50:37the letter arrived in Kochi Prefecture,
50:40something terrible happened.
50:43On December 21, 1927,
50:46at 4.19 a.m.,
50:49the Showa Nankai Earthquake
50:52of magnitude 8.0 occurred.
50:57Tsunami hit the coast from Boso Peninsula
51:00to Kyushu,
51:03killing 1,330 people.
51:09The Showa Nankai Earthquake
51:12that had been predicted for 18 years
51:15since the founding of the Showa era
51:18became a reality.
51:26When he heard the news of the earthquake,
51:29he said,
51:32this is what he said.
51:36After 18 years of suffering,
51:39it became a bubble of water.
51:52In a city full of trash,
51:55people continued to live in fear,
51:58but in the midst of fear and anxiety,
52:01the Showa era came to an end.
52:12After the Showa Nankai Earthquake,
52:15Imamura, whose body began to deteriorate,
52:18passed away at the age of 23.
52:21This is a photograph taken
52:24four months before his death.
52:30Imamura took part in a fundraising campaign
52:33since the Great Kanto Earthquake
52:36and gave a speech on the street.
52:39What did he want to tell people?
52:51Imamura's body was left behind.
52:57Earthquakes cannot be suppressed
53:00by force,
53:03but earthquakes can be prevented
53:06by force.
53:09As long as there is no force,
53:12we must work courageously
53:15to make the earthquake
53:18disappear.
53:24Imamura believed that the damage
53:27caused by an earthquake
53:30could be prevented by force.
53:33It was because of this belief
53:36that he dedicated his life
53:39to preventing and preventing earthquakes.
53:43Even after the war,
53:46his belief was not rewarded.
53:49Japan witnessed another earthquake.
53:52Mr. Sagiya, why did Imamura
53:55continue to observe earthquakes?
53:58If we could record what happens
54:01before an earthquake
54:04and get data,
54:07we could prevent it.
54:10But not only that,
54:13if we could get data from people
54:16like Imamura from Edo period,
54:19we could know what happens
54:22before an earthquake.
54:25I analyze the data
54:28taken by Imamura
54:31and use it for research.
54:34I think he understood
54:37the importance of
54:40keeping records of earthquakes.
54:43The important point is that
54:46there aren't many lands
54:49that shake as much as Japan.
54:52There aren't many people
54:55who can keep records of lands
54:58that shake as much as Japan.
55:01It's a special field.
55:04Imamura continued to walk
55:07in the same direction.
55:10This year, Nankai Truffle
55:13released a temporary information.
55:16The situation of Imamura
55:19is similar to ours.
55:22Mr. Sagiya, what do you think?
55:25This year's temporary information
55:28was just a warning.
55:31It wasn't necessarily
55:34an earthquake.
55:37Nankai Truffle is highly likely
55:40to occur.
55:43Another important thing is
55:46that after the Tohoku earthquake
55:49in the Showa period,
55:52the Mikawa earthquake happened.
55:55The number of deaths
55:58is twice that of the Tohoku earthquake.
56:01I don't know where
56:04such things happen.
56:07I want to make sure
56:10that it doesn't happen
56:13at a specific time or place.
56:16When an earthquake occurs,
56:19the media goes crazy.
56:22After a while,
56:25the media stops reporting.
56:28The speed at which earthquakes occur
56:31is also fast.
56:34It's a waste of time,
56:37both in terms of maintenance
56:40and measures.
56:43When I try to talk about
56:46earthquakes in the past,
56:49people say,
56:52I don't want to think about
56:55earthquakes in the past.
56:58When I die, people ask me
57:01why I didn't say more
57:04after I woke up.
57:07Most people
57:10ignore inconvenient information
57:13and try to think about things
57:16that are convenient for them.
57:19Even if there is information
57:22that is convenient for them,
57:25they don't listen to it.
57:28I'm afraid of that.
57:31If we don't do
57:34what we can do
57:37to raise awareness,
57:40we won't be able to
57:43reduce the number of earthquakes.
57:46I think Mr. Imamura
57:49is right.
57:52Mr. Isoda,
57:55you mentioned the Nankai-Torafu earthquake
57:58and the Imamura-Akitsune earthquake.
58:01What did you feel?
58:04We don't know when it will occur
58:07and we don't know when it will occur.
58:10We can only fight against it
58:13with information and preparation.
58:16I think we will see
58:19what we can do in the middle of the 21st century.
58:22We can observe the aftermath,
58:25but we don't know when it will occur.
58:28We need to have knowledge
58:31about disasters
58:34to be confident.
58:37It's wrong to leave it
58:40to experts
58:43but we need to think about it.
58:48Thank you very much.
59:14Find Japan again.
59:17Find me.
59:20New Japan Fudoki
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