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00:00We can now speak to Professor of International Politics, Scott Lucas, to get his analysis
00:05of the situation.
00:06Scott, it's such a complicated situation in Syria.
00:10We've seen this coalition of rebels going into Damascus.
00:14How do you see things going forward when it comes to a transitional authority taking over
00:20the running of that country so badly battered by 14 years of war?
00:25I think Danny Mackey summed it up very well in terms of that your immediate priorities,
00:31even as you talk about that transitional government, are to make sure that the cities and indeed
00:35the countryside can still operate.
00:38So before Damascus, we can talk about in the past 12 days about making sure that Aleppo
00:43City, with more than 2 million people, that utilities were maintained and indeed that
00:49more utilities were put in place, that businesses continued to stay open, that security was
00:54assured.
00:56We saw it in Hama over the past week.
00:59And now, you know, we are going to have to see it in Damascus and Homs.
01:03And in the first 24 hours after the departure of Assad, what you did see was Hayat Tahrir
01:08al-Sham and the other groups, because although HTS is in the lead, it is a coalition.
01:14And you saw them trying to assure order throughout the city, issuing instructions against looting
01:21and indeed moving to stop it at the central bank, that you saw the instructions go out
01:27that public and private property were not to be touched, the imposition of the curfew,
01:32while things are being brought back into place.
01:35And you know, we look forward in the days ahead that that day-to-day activity continues
01:40while we talk about wielding together a coalition.
01:43I think it is interesting that al-Jilani, as head of HTS, has actually indicated that
01:48the group itself may drop the name.
01:50It may effectively reform as a political rather than a military organization.
01:55But there will be the other rebel groups, and of course, there'll be the political groups,
01:59some of whom have been in Turkey over almost 14 years, some of whom will revive from within
02:05the country.
02:07For those who want to write this off completely, that it cannot work, that this is just terrorist,
02:13I think you just happily have to remember that Syrians lived under a 54-year authoritarian
02:19family rule, that hundreds of thousands of them have been killed in the past 13 plus
02:24years, that more than 11 million have been displaced.
02:28They just want a bit of hope and opportunity.
02:30And at this point, although we're not sure what the future will bring, there is that
02:34possibility.
02:35There is that possibility that Syria can move to a future which, rather than being of death
02:40and destruction, can be one of security for the people who want to live there in peace.
02:45And looking at the international situation, the leader of HTS, HTS itself deemed a terrorist
02:52organization, but by so many international countries, there's a lot of sanctions on Syria.
02:58It will need to rebuild.
02:59Should HTS stay on as one of the leaders in the forthcoming authority?
03:04How will that play out, do you think, internationally?
03:06Well, I mean, Al Jelani's message is quite clear already.
03:10When you give your first major interview, even before Assad's departure, and it goes
03:17to the U.S. outlet CNN, you can see who he's appealing to.
03:21HTS, as you noted in your introduction, did break from al-Qaeda in 2016, did so largely
03:27because al-Qaeda was considered as a foreign organization.
03:31Al Jelani and HTS want to present themselves as Syrians.
03:35They have committed abuses of power in the Northwest, where they've ruled for years.
03:40That has brought, however, local protest, not just by other groups, rebel groups, but
03:45by the population itself.
03:47The question is whether Al Jelani, as he reaches out internationally, has learned from that.
03:52But I do think that if we see the restoration of order in Syria, I think if we see respect
03:59for all Syrians, including minorities, that you will see a negotiation begin to not only
04:06take HGF off the terrorist list in the U.S., but also negotiations to begin on the lifting
04:12of sanctions, the U.S.-led sanctions that have been in place since 2011.
04:19I'm getting the impression that there's hope there, a real element of hope in what you're
04:23telling me for Syria.
04:24But let's look also at the regional impact of what we've seen in Syria, the impact on
04:28Turkey.
04:30We're hearing of new fighting with Kurdish forces in the north there.
04:35I'm also thinking of the impact on Lebanon, Hezbollah, and indeed Russia.
04:40I think the immediate question is going to be whether you're going to see the Turkish-backed
04:45rebel groups in open conflict with the U.S.-backed Kurdish-led groups, including the Syrian Democratic
04:53Forces.
04:55I think we're in a position right now where I wouldn't say a deal is being cut, but I
05:00think there are maneuvers where the Turkish-backed rebels will probably reclaim positions in
05:05Aleppo province, such as the city of Manbij, but that the northeast, that autonomous area
05:12that the Kurds have ruled for years, that at this point it will remain, especially as
05:16long as U.S. forces are there to protect them.
05:19I think the real uncertainty about the rebels versus Kurds question comes in January when
05:25Donald Trump comes into office, and whether he, as he has done in the past, threatens
05:30to withdraw the U.S. forces, and indeed greenlights Erdogan to attack that area, which he did
05:36in 2019.
05:37That, I think, is the immediate question for instability within Syria.
05:41More broadly, look, Lebanon is its own case right now, given the open-ended Israeli war
05:46in Lebanon, Hezbollah being decimated, the very fragile ceasefire there.
05:52I think for the moment, you know, you look at Syria for Syria, you look at Lebanon as
05:56being an Israeli-Lebanon question, and as far as Russia and Iran are concerned, look,
06:02they simply did not intervene to save Assad because they're overstretched.
06:05Russia's overstretched in Ukraine.
06:08The Iranians have very serious domestic issues and have been hurt by the Israeli-targeted
06:12assassinations.
06:14And I think for now, Russia and Iran are going to have to regroup and decide whether or not
06:17they're going to intervene in Syria, or at least this time, support stability rather
06:22than destruction.
06:23Okay.
06:25Professor Scott Lucas, thanks so much for joining us here on France 24, your expertise
06:29much appreciated.