• last week
Transcript
00:00All right, let's move on here to a running back and utilization might be different here.
00:07It's a receiving yards prop for Bijan Robinson, 28 and a half receiving yards over or under
00:15considering the matchup, Joe, how do you lean?
00:18Well, I lean because, you know, they are pretty good against the run that the Minnesota Vikings
00:23vulnerability is really good past catching running backs and Bijan Robinson might be,
00:27you know, outside of Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Jameer Gibbs, like he's in that conversation
00:33of those guys for sure.
00:35Last week, you saw him have 33 yards on this one, the two weeks before, guess what?
00:4028 and 28.
00:42So Vegas knows what they're doing when they set this line here at 28 and a half is right
00:46there.
00:47And I think it's an over today.
00:48I think you're going to see, again, a very motivated Atlanta Falcons team with their
00:51back against the wall.
00:52The Falcons aren't a great football team.
00:54They're a football team that plays in a lesser division that is still trying to figure out
00:58their parts and they've had a lot of change and it's been times where it's been good and
01:02really clicked and times where it's been bad.
01:05I think this is one of those times where it's good enough.
01:07And I think the 28 and a half would be an over.
01:10I would think it's going to be in the thirties this week.
01:12So if they have any chance to beat the Vikings, you got to get the ball in Bijan's hands.
01:16And I think the best way to do that this week is via the past, not via handing it off.
01:21All right, let's move on to the tight end position here.
01:24We always try to get crafty with our props.
01:26It's Pat Friermuth and it's over under two and a half receptions here.
01:30Now you've laid out Friermuth's assets when you were just talking about the stability
01:35of the Steelers.
01:37Does that lean to an over here?
01:40Well everybody knows me, knows that I tend to stay away from the receptions, props and
01:44things of that nature.
01:45I like the yardage totals.
01:46Like you could get all the yardage on one play.
01:50That happens in football.
01:52Can't do that if you're not getting targets.
01:54Now the good news is the target volume is starting to change a little bit for Pat Friermuth.
01:57Mike Williams was an addition to this team, but he has really done next to nothing.
02:01Pickens has been very good.
02:03So the second guy in this passing attack is starting to become Pat Friermuth.
02:08So if you look at that trend, four targets two weeks ago, seven targets last week, he
02:13caught four and then six.
02:15So he has been over this number in three of the last four games.
02:17That is a good enough trend with Russell Wilson in a game where you know, Jameis Winston's
02:22not going to stop throwing the football under any circumstances.
02:25There's no deficit.
02:28There's no lead where his mindset changes.
02:30Jameis Winston's going to be slinging the football and that's good news on the props
02:34for the other side because you're going to have to continue to keep pace in some fashion.
02:38So give me Pat Friermuth over this two and a half.
02:40I think you can get to four again receptions today and he has some touchdown equity as
02:44well.
02:45So if you want to put that TD along with it, you're getting a good number there too.
02:47But I think Pat Friermuth is starting to emerge as a useful part of this offense.
02:51He's got a lot of talent.
02:52Just nobody was really been able to unlock him yet in his career in Pittsburgh.
02:56Maybe Russell Wilson has been that guy.

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