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00:00It is ten days since the surprise lightning advance of rebel forces in Syria began.
00:10From the north-west pocket of the country which the regime of President Assad thought
00:15had been contained.
00:17Four years where the civil war was said to have been frozen.
00:19Not peace, but no real outbreaks.
00:22In ten days, three cities taken.
00:24Let's explain where we are.
00:26First Aleppo, second city taken, or retaken.
00:29It was held by rebel forces until the government forced them back, back in 2016 with the help
00:34of Russia and Iran.
00:37The opposition, led by the Islamist fighters called the HTS or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, captured
00:42the central city of Hama.
00:44Syrian forces say they withdrew to avoid fighting in the city and spare civilians, roughly 70
00:49kilometres south of Aleppo.
00:50Now reports of residents evacuating the third largest city, Homs, in the west.
00:56There are pictures coming from two towns, al-Daraqabir and Talbisa, of fighters there,
01:01outside of the city.
01:03Meanwhile separately in the east, in the past few hours, Kurdish forces that have been backed
01:07from member in the past by the US, have taken the significant eastern city.
01:11This is the Syrian Democratic Force, or SDF, taking full control of the city of Deir al-Zor.
01:17Well, Akiyed Ghanem joins us in the studio.
01:21Akiyed is a Franco-Syrian lecturer, a professor of Syria and international relations at Science
01:26Po University.
01:27Great to have you on the programme.
01:28Thank you for having me.
01:29I mean, there's a lot to start with.
01:31Just give me your assessment, first of all, of the wider picture, what you see to be going
01:36on right now.
01:37Of course, so we are just entering a new phase in what started a few days ago.
01:42You really rightfully said that there was no peace in Syria before this started last
01:48Thursday and Friday.
01:50There was this very precarious stability with, of course, a lot of contentions, a lot of
01:55poverty and a lot of issues faced by the Syrian people, a lot of them being displaced in several
02:01parts of the country.
02:03So now we are with this new phase with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other groups, for
02:08example, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, following their strategy and their conquest
02:15of the most important cities of Syria.
02:17So first Aleppo, now Hama, and now they're heading to Homs.
02:23So the situation is very critical.
02:26The future of the Syrian regime is at stake.
02:30And we should see how the situation evolves in Homs, because it's really important to
02:36acknowledge the fact that Homs, according to its history, to its sociology, to its demography,
02:41it's not the same story as Aleppo and Hama.
02:44Tell us about that, because this is close to the Western coast.
02:48It's seen, I'm right to say, as strategic in a sense.
02:51First of all, you talk about the makeup of the population, the significant Alawite community
02:54in Homs.
02:55It's also seen as a key eastern port city close to the Western coast, a key area strategically
03:03for Assad.
03:04Exactly.
03:05So in the mindset of the regime, of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, Homs is a key.
03:13It's a city that is very close to Damascus, the capital city on the same road, which we
03:19call the Road of Damascus.
03:22And as you said, according to the regime, it's part of this area that goes from the
03:27coast to this line, Damascus-Homs, and which is considered by really the protected area
03:34of the regime.
03:35So if the rebels had arrived to these areas, then it's the very survival of the regime
03:41that is at stake.
03:43I just wonder what you think of the ability of the Assad government.
03:46There was a moment, wasn't there, last Saturday, where there was a question about whether or
03:50not his government had been toppled.
03:52He disappeared.
03:53It was seen that the Iranian foreign minister came to see him, then he emerged, or at least
03:58we had information that he was part of that meeting.
04:01There seemed to be, for the Syrian government and the regime, a breather in the week, where
04:05it seemed the Russian strikes, Syrian airstrikes around Aleppo, around Hama, but it's picked
04:11up again.
04:12You talk about the risk to Assad.
04:16How serious do you think that is?
04:18I think we shall have more information when, or if, the rebels and al-Tahrir al-Sham comes
04:24closer to Homs.
04:26And we shall see how strong the resistance of the Syrian regime is in Homs, and if it's
04:31different than it was in Aleppo and Damascus.
04:34I think that the very close future of the Assad regime depends on two elements.
04:43The first one is strategic.
04:45So to what extent the allies of the regime are able to provide Assad and his army with
04:51what he needs.
04:52So more airstrikes from Russia, but also people on the ground.
04:56Because the people that we have, the al-Tahrir al-Sham and their allies, these are people
05:00moving very fast with pickup cars.
05:03So it's not just with airstrikes that will manage to stop them, and that Bashar al-Assad
05:08would manage to stop them.
05:09So the question is, would Hezbollah be able to send troops, soldiers, to help Bashar al-Assad?
05:17Would the militias from Iraq, the Iran-backed militias, arrive also in the next days to
05:23help Bashar al-Assad?
05:24If not, then the future of the regime is really at stake.
05:28So this is the first element.
05:29And the second one is the objective of al-Tahrir al-Sham.
05:33It's not always clear.
05:35In his narrative, in his speech, and he gave an interview recently, he is trying to send
05:43this very moderate message, to which I don't believe personally, but this very moderate
05:49message of him sparing the minorities and even working with them, working with the Christians
05:54in Aleppo.
05:55There are some rumors saying that he is working hand in hand with the Christian authorities
06:00in Aleppo, with the Ismaili authorities in some cities where there is this other minority.
06:06So is the objective of al-Tahrir al-Sham to take all Syria?
06:11I don't think it's really possible.
06:13Or is it to accept the further fragmentation of the country and saying that the Alawites
06:18would be on their own, maybe with still the Assad family or someone else?
06:24We're talking about Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, who is the leader of HTS, who was the leader
06:29of the Nusra Front.
06:30He broke off from al-Qaeda.
06:31That was an offshoot of the Nusra Front.
06:34HTS still considered by the US government, by the EU, a terrorist group.
06:37There's a $10 million bounty still on Jilani's head as well.
06:40And yet you said the slick media operation in which he's been filmed talking to the front
06:44line on the phone saying, spare civilians.
06:48And also media showing that we've had Christians living in Aleppo saying that they're being
06:52treated well.
06:53Let me just bring in this last point to you for now.
06:56So this in the past few minutes, coming from Turkey, President Erdogan saying this to reporters,
07:00quote, our wish is the advance in Syria continues without incident.
07:05What do you make of that?
07:07I think the Turkish position is very complex and ambiguous.
07:10I think the ambiguity of the situation is very hard to follow sometimes.
07:15But so in Syria, you have HTS, who first came, who were based in Idlib, right, who were somehow
07:22governing the area hand in hand with civil committees, and of course, under Turkish influence
07:27on the north of the country.
07:30When HTS arrived in Aleppo, they had this policy strategy of letting the Kurdish army
07:39going out of the city and going further east.
07:41And that's not something that is in the interest of Turkey.
07:44So not always the same interest.
07:45And that's why, yes, HTS may not be fighting against the Kurds, but the Syrian army and
07:51the other Turkish allies in the area are.
07:54So that's the situation of Erdogan.
07:56I think he's looking at the picture, trying to keep his win-win position.
08:01If HTS manages to shake the regime, then he can win even a bigger influence in the north
08:08of the country against the Kurds.
08:10And that's its main issue.
08:13And if not, then he is able to get a stronger balance against HTS in the Syrian opposition.
08:20Again, really good to talk to you.
08:22Great clarity from you as well, Agriya Gaonam, expert professor in Syria, Syrian-Franco professor
08:29at Sciences Po University.