MEDI1TV Afrique : Administration Trump 2.0 : Ce que révèlent les premières nominations - 14/11/2024
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00:00Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.
00:14Analysis of the future Trump administration in this episode of Question d'Actu.
00:19His oath ceremony is scheduled for January 20th, is still far away, but Donald Trump
00:24has already announced the members of his administration.
00:28The 47th American president has appointed several of his relatives to key positions.
00:34First, we find Marco Rubio at the post of Secretary of State.
00:39Rubio is a supporter of strengthening relations between the United States and Morocco.
00:43He sees him as a pillar of stability and a reliable ally in the region.
00:47And we can say that he does not see the eastern neighbor with the same eye.
00:51Diplomacy still, Elise Stefanik will join the post of Ambassador to the United Nations.
00:56The 40-year-old Republican has made her weapons at the heart of the Bush administration.
01:00And in this nomination waltz that followed his election,
01:03the elected president appoints Steven Whitkoff to the post of special emissary for the Middle East.
01:08He is a great friend and a supporter of the first hour of Donald Trump.
01:11Whitkoff will be an implacable voice for peace, according to the official statement of his appointment.
01:20We also find a certain Tom Homan at the post of Tsar of the Borders.
01:26And then the nomination that made the most ink flow
01:30is undeniably that of the richest man in the world,
01:33Elon Musk, as Minister of Governmental Efficiency
01:37alongside the Republican businessman Vivek Rawatmawi.
01:40We will also note that President-elect Donald Trump and the conservative camp
01:44succeed in winning a third with the White House and the two chambers of Congress.
01:49So how does this second term of Donald Trump present itself with all these novelties,
01:53especially for the Middle East and Morocco?
01:55We will answer tonight with our guests.
01:57First of all, I have the pleasure of welcoming from Washington,
02:00the American political analyst Calvin Dark.
02:02Good evening, Calvin.
02:04Good evening.
02:06Pleasure to welcome you to this show.
02:11Thank you very much for the invitation.
02:13And from Vancouver, the expert in political strategy Hicham Moet-Chadid.
02:18Good evening, Dr. Moet-Chadid.
02:19A renewed pleasure to welcome you to the show as well.
02:25Thank you for the invitation, Mrs. Chadid.
02:27And with us from Paris, Gérald Dolivier, specialist journalist in the United States,
02:31author of the book On the Road of the White House,
02:34an American presidential election dictionary.
02:37Good evening, Gérald Dolivier.
02:38Thank you for joining us.
02:41Good evening. Thank you for the invitation.
02:44Thank you for accepting it.
02:45Before talking about this future, new Trump administration,
02:50maybe a comment on images.
02:52First of all, on this meeting yesterday between the outgoing president
02:56and the elected president at the White House.
02:59And the least we can say is that there was still a good atmosphere.
03:06Smiles were flowing and we saw them almost, I would say, happy to see each other.
03:13I would start with Calvin Dark.
03:15You are in Washington.
03:16A comment first on how the American public opinion welcomed this meeting.
03:26Yes, I think that in general it was well received
03:29because it represents a peaceful transition of power.
03:34It's normal in a democracy.
03:36We remember that Donald Trump did not do it with Biden.
03:42So the contrast is very important.
03:45I think that for the Democrats it was very badly seen,
03:49the way that Joe Biden did it.
03:53Why?
03:54He needs to make the transition to the protocol.
03:59That's not a problem.
04:00But the way he welcomed Donald Trump,
04:03he said, welcome back to the White House,
04:07as he was a former friend.
04:08And we know that less than two weeks ago,
04:12he said that he was the historical danger for the United States.
04:18And I think that represents Joe Biden's mentality.
04:21He lived in the 1970s,
04:23where there were differences between Democrats and Republicans.
04:28But at the end of the day, he took a drink.
04:32He didn't recognize that we were in a very different situation.
04:37And I think that it really touched the Democratic Party
04:43because one of the critics of the Biden-Harris campaign
04:48was that their accusations against Donald Trump,
04:51there weren't a lot of proof behind them.
04:54It could be hyperbolic.
04:57And when he shook hands with Donald Trump,
05:00as he was a former friend,
05:01without recognizing that he was doing what a president should do,
05:06what Donald Trump refused to do in 2020,
05:09he normalized what Donald Trump was doing.
05:11And I think that was very badly seen, especially by Democrats.
05:16Gérald Dolivier, a comment on this meeting,
05:19which was quite special.
05:22We saw the Biden couple, all smiling.
05:26Similarly for Donald Trump,
05:28we would have even believed that they were accomplices.
05:33Yes, it's true that as part of the transition process in the United States,
05:38it's important that this type of meeting
05:41takes place in a spirit of cooperation.
05:44So that's quite commendable,
05:46as your speaker said a few seconds ago.
05:49But I notice two things.
05:52The strategy of demonizing Donald Trump during the campaign failed.
05:57The American voters obviously didn't follow
06:01what the Democrats were telling them,
06:02neither Kamala Harris, nor Biden, nor others.
06:05And they voted massively for Donald Trump,
06:08and no one votes to see their own democracy be destroyed.
06:12So in the eyes of the Americans,
06:14this demonization was nothing more than a political hyperbole,
06:18and a hyperbole that is frankly very debatable.
06:20That's the first point.
06:22The second point, what I notice,
06:24there is indeed a smile on Joe Biden's face,
06:27which we haven't seen in a very long time,
06:29because Joe Biden, in a way,
06:31comes out the winner of this whole confrontation.
06:35He was asked to withdraw in July.
06:40He was forced to withdraw.
06:42He didn't like at all this coup d'état against him,
06:45led by the party.
06:47So the fact that the one who replaced him failed to win the election,
06:52well, it's not necessarily to displease him.
06:54And I remind you that for history,
06:57Joe Biden will remain the only American politician
07:00who has managed to beat Donald Trump.
07:03Hillary Clinton tried, she lost.
07:05Kamala Harris tried, she lost.
07:07And there will be no additional mandates for Donald Trump.
07:10So no one will be confronted with this person.
07:13And Joe Biden can have as a political heritage
07:16to be the only politician
07:18to have never beaten Donald Trump in a presidential election.
07:21And I am convinced that he is proud of it.
07:23So, on the one hand, his smile is also explained by that.
07:27He is less losing than he seems.
07:30And he knew very well that the very violent accusations
07:34made against Donald Trump, of extremism, of Nazism, of all that,
07:38it was a way of trying to turn the electorate against him.
07:42It didn't work.
07:43So he continues, I would say, the classic process
07:46of a democratic transition within the American framework.
07:49And the big winner of this demonization policy,
07:52as you say, of the Democrats against Donald Trump,
07:56are the Republicans.
07:57The Republican Party won 218 seats in the House of Representatives.
08:02So majority.
08:03They had already won the majority in the Senate and the White House.
08:07So a third, it's a winner.
08:09Hicham Mouattadid, a comment also on what that means
08:14in terms of power today held by the Republicans in the United States.
08:20Well, in fact, as we have all seen, observed during this meeting,
08:26this first meeting of transition,
08:28of political transition between the two administrations,
08:33the Democrats wanted to show, to project an image
08:38of the guarantors of this institutional transition
08:44by respecting the official recognition of the choice of the American people.
08:50But also, they wanted to take advantage of this opportunity
08:54to project the image of a civility of Democrats
08:58who are really trying to drive along the electoral campaign,
09:03but also who carry in their values.
09:05Now, on the other side, in fact, of the Republicans,
09:08Trump, in fact, and we have already seen it,
09:12in fact, words pronounced at least, that is, in front of the cameras,
09:16is that he wanted to reassure the Democrats
09:21and also say that he is there to make a certain break
09:26between the electoral context and that of really being the president of all Americans.
09:32And that's why he repeated the word that politics is not easy.
09:35It's hard, in fact, politics.
09:37But today, from today, I am there.
09:40I am the person who will be the president of all Americans.
09:44And also, in fact, to register in this transition in an institutional way.
09:50We have observed it based on the words he pronounced.
09:54And also, he wanted to convey this image, in fact, of the winner of the elections.
10:00And one last point I wanted to mention is the fact
10:03that I am here and ready to be engaged and actually take control
10:08or the political steering wheel of the Americans and American politics.
10:11In any case, the control of the Senate is taken by the Republicans.
10:14Same for the House of Representatives.
10:16I reiterate that this is a very, very important element.
10:20And then also engaged, he started, he got engaged,
10:25but he also started to engage the members of his future administration.
10:31In any case, what we can notice, first of all, Calvin,
10:36is that he is made up of this Trump cabinet,
10:39in any case, this Trump government, of faithful.
10:43It's a bit of an American tradition.
10:46It is not specific to this administration of Donald Trump.
10:51Do you confirm that?
10:54– Yes, but I think that the American system is a bit different.
11:00First of all, what is Donald Trump looking for for the people in his positions?
11:07He is looking for obedience, loyalty and complete obedience to the agenda of Donald Trump.
11:14Why do I say that?
11:16Donald Trump himself said after the 2020 elections
11:20that one of the biggest obstacles during the first term
11:25was the Republicans, traditional Republicans,
11:28who tried to reform the approach,
11:33the positions of Donald Trump to be a little more in line with tradition.
11:37So he said that if he wins, and he won,
11:41for the second term, he doesn't want the opposition from the inside.
11:47So he is looking for obedience and also he doesn't want someone
11:51who will try to change his opinion on a question.
11:55Secondly, I think it should be noted that in the United States,
12:00the ministers, the secretaries, have no power.
12:04They have the power given by the president.
12:07That is to say, when a secretary is confirmed,
12:12he has the file, but he can do what the president wants to do,
12:16even if he does not agree with the decision.
12:19We say in English, they serve at the pleasure of the president.
12:22So it's not like in other countries where there is really power.
12:28If the president does not agree with the decision of a minister,
12:32he can fire the minister without any explanation.
12:36And that's not just Donald Trump, that's normal.
12:39So I say that, why?
12:42Because when we see the political positions,
12:46the declarations of the past and of those nominated,
12:50we shouldn't analyze that too much to see what they will do as ministers or secretaries.
12:56Because that indicates the advice that the president will give.
13:01But Donald Trump, especially Donald Trump,
13:03he wants the people who will execute his orders.
13:07That's all. I think that's important.
13:09Second thing, it's exceptional in our system.
13:14Why does Donald Trump want to use the Recess Appointments system?
13:19That is to say, to nominate and confirm the nominees
13:23and to convene them in session.
13:27It's not because he doesn't have the majority in the Senate.
13:30He has the majority.
13:31He can have the confirmation of all his nominees.
13:35But he doesn't want the interrogation of his nominees
13:40because some of them have no experience, no CV.
13:44They have their own controversies.
13:46And he knows that the Democrats have no power in the confirmation process.
13:52But what he can do in the television audience,
13:56he can remind the Americans of the controversies,
13:59of all the problematic racist declarations of the nominees.
14:04And Donald Trump doesn't want that.
14:06So he said he doesn't want to move away from the normal process
14:10to confirm his nominees.
14:13So I think that gives a sign to Donald Trump's approach to this second mandate.
14:19He doesn't want to conform to the norms, to the traditions,
14:22or maybe even to the law, as he did in the first mandate.
14:28– So, let's go into detail with you, Gérald Olivier.
14:34If we take, for example,
14:36first this nomination of Marco Rubio as head of American diplomacy,
14:42can we say that, already,
14:44it suggests a certain diplomatic offensive
14:49for the months or even the years to come?
14:53– What is certain is that Donald Trump's United States
14:57will take their place entirely, I would say, on the international scene
15:02and clearly seek to impose their vision of peace through force.
15:08This is, I would say, the foundation of the foreign policy of the United States,
15:14to absolutely not seek war,
15:16to absolutely not seek to expand or create conflicts,
15:21on the contrary, to seek to resolve the conflicts that are ongoing.
15:25There are two major conflicts currently,
15:27it's the conflict in the Middle East,
15:29the war in Gaza against Hezbollah and against Hamas,
15:35and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a broader sense,
15:39so the conflict in the Middle East,
15:40and then you have the conflict in Ukraine.
15:43And on these two points, Donald Trump has clearly made it known
15:47that he intended to work to achieve peace in both cases.
15:53Marco Rubio will be the, I would say, diplomatic part of this approach,
15:59he will not be the only one.
16:00You noted Mr. Witkoff, who is the Special Envoy to the Middle East,
16:05appointed by Donald Trump,
16:07who is a billionaire real estate agent in New York,
16:10himself of Jewish origin,
16:12and very close to Netanyahu, and very pro-Israel.
16:16So the orientation of the United States in this debate will be very, very clear,
16:21but the idea is that with its strength, its means, its persuasion,
16:26and I would say its strategic capacity behind it,
16:29the United States will get involved in these conflicts
16:31to work to find a solution,
16:33which the Biden administration did not dare to do.
16:36It has always been attentive,
16:37and it has supported, I would say, with one hand,
16:42but without ever detaching itself,
16:43and without ever seeking to work more systematically towards a solution.
16:48This is what will change radically from January,
16:52and which will, we hope,
16:54lead to ceasefires,
16:57I think this will be the first thing,
16:59both in Ukraine and in the Middle East,
17:02and then negotiations.
17:04Negotiations that, in my opinion, will be easier in the context of the Ukrainian case,
17:09more difficult in the context of the Middle East case,
17:12but we will start by having an America of the United States,
17:16which, although always involved,
17:18will work to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution.
17:22How do you see the future of the Abraham Accords
17:25with this new administration?
17:27Hicham Ouachadid.
17:30I think, in fact, that with the appointment of the Ambassador of the United States to Israel,
17:37Mike, Trump will try to take advantage of this friendship,
17:43of this rapprochement between Mike and Netanyahu,
17:46to put pressure on the Israeli government
17:48to stop the war as soon as possible,
17:51so that it allows the renaissance of this project,
17:56which the Republicans have been playing since Trump's first term.
18:01So what I see at this level, and in my opinion,
18:04is that what Trump will try to do
18:07is to direct Mike to put pressure on the Israeli government
18:12to stop the war as soon as possible
18:15to allow this project of the Abraham Accords to be reborn.
18:22Why? Because, first of all, in the philosophy of the Republicans,
18:25or even more, in fact, according to Trump's vision,
18:28they will try to remove as many American soldiers from the international scene as possible
18:35because they want to focus their political efforts on America first.
18:42And I think that among the tactics or strategies that Trump's administration will try to do
18:49is to use the special envoy to the Middle East
18:53to put a lot more pressure on the Israeli government
18:57to stop the war as soon as possible,
19:00which will really open diplomatic channels to be set up
19:04or to reinforce the Abraham Accords.
19:07Precisely, speaking of which, Marco Rubio knows Morocco very well, Calvin Dock.
19:13Yes, yes, yes, he knows.
19:14I think he may be the only normal nominee.
19:20He is a conservative, but he has a lot of credibility.
19:24In fact, I believe that credibility is the obstacle to confirmation for Marco Rubio.
19:32I say this as a Democrat.
19:36I support Marco Rubio because he supports the causes that I support,
19:42not internal affairs in the United States, but foreign affairs.
19:48But the opposition to Marco Rubio is not a Democrat.
19:52It's more of a Republican, because he represents the establishment,
19:59the traditional Republicans.
20:01And I think that now there is a lot of criticism
20:03because Donald Trump said that he is looking for ministers and secretaries
20:07who will shake up the deep state.
20:13And I think that this is really the obstacle.
20:16But I think that he will be confirmed.
20:19And I think that if he can be convincing for Donald Trump,
20:23maybe he can do what he has been doing in the Senate for 20 years.
20:29I also think that it should be noted that,
20:32because Donald Trump does not have the right to a third mandate,
20:35all his nominees are looking for a spotlight for them
20:40to position themselves as candidates against J.D. Vance for 2028.
20:46And so Donald Trump is very good at manipulating this system
20:50because he wants to be the kingmaker for this process.
20:55But he knows that he will give opportunities to the Republicans he supports.
21:01That is to say, there are Republicans like Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida.
21:05He is not exactly a friend now.
21:09So I think that's why he won't have a very important position
21:15in Donald Trump's government.
21:17So we have to remember that.
21:20Donald Trump thinks about the future
21:21and how he can be influential within the party after his mandate.
21:26I'm going to go around the table.
21:28I'll start with Gérald Olivier.
21:30We have seen that the international policy apparatus
21:35was the first to deal with Donald Trump.
21:38We have a Secretary of Defense, a National Security Advisor,
21:42a CIA Director, a Director of National Intelligence,
21:49there is also a Guard of Honor.
21:51And in fact, what I see is that Donald Trump considers that he has received a mandate,
21:55what is called a mandate in English, a mandate of the American people.
21:59He clearly made it known that what he intended to do if he was elected,
22:02both internationally and in terms of domestic policy.
22:07And there are secretaries, I think of the Secretary of the Pentagon,
22:10Mr. Pete Exxon, and I think of the Attorney General, Mr. Matt Gaetz,
22:15who are two very controversial nominees.
22:18And their role will be precisely, I would say, to put a little order in their ministries,
22:22because they are the ones who have recently been the most contested,
22:25and we have been able to observe, I would say, a certain detournement of the political apparatus,
22:29depending in particular on the Republican Party and the conservatives in the United States.
22:35So there are different roles that have been assigned,
22:38and some have a role on the international scene,
22:40others have a much more role, I would say, on the level of domestic policy,
22:44and much more even on the functioning of Washington.
22:47Richard Moazzadid, Gaza and Ukraine,
22:50first objectives for the elected president and also,
22:53Kuwait, future relations between the United States, Morocco,
22:58and also perhaps a word on Africa.
23:02Yes, in fact, I think that the region of the Maghreb or the region of Africa
23:07will not be a priority, or the great priority,
23:11in fact, of American foreign affairs.
23:15For the moment, it would be at least for the first part of the mandate.
23:19On the other hand, in fact, what is going to be done is that the great efforts,
23:25in fact, at the level of war management or conflicts at the international level,
23:28will focus much more on the Ukraine case,
23:32but also on the other side of the globe, in the Middle East conflict.
23:36They will really try to put a lot more diplomatic and political pressure
23:41to settle this from a diplomatic point of view,
23:45while minimizing the financial, military and tactical commitment, etc.
23:50Now, beyond these two files, there is also the priority,
23:54that is to say, the political and strategic concern for this administration.
23:59It is the relations between Washington and Beijing,
24:03that is, with the appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
24:08We know very well these radical positions
24:10regarding the relations between the United States and China,
24:14but also, in fact, these positions
24:16in relation to a certain number of international files,
24:19including those between Washington and Rabai.
24:23I think that there was still a first foundation,
24:27the first ballists that were built towards the end of Trump's mandate,
24:30which will facilitate this resumption,
24:33or this restart, in fact, in the relations between the Trump administration and Rabai,
24:41so that he can continue the projects that he wanted to continue
24:46when he was president of the Americans during his first mandate.
24:52So, I think that the region of the Maghreb
24:55will not be a major priority during Trump's second mandate,
25:00but, that is to say, strategic choices can be made within its international policy.
25:06And I think that Morocco, in fact,
25:09will appear on this map of strategic choices for the Secretary of State.
25:14And I think that a second part, in fact,
25:16and projects will be underway during this second mandate between Rabai and Washington.
25:23Exactly, the second mandate, which will officially begin,
25:30which will begin on January 20,
25:33when Donald Trump will take his oath.
25:36Thank you very much, Calvin Dark.
25:38Thank you for being with us.
25:39Thank you, Gerald Olivier,
25:43and my good thanks to my guest from Vancouver, Hicham Moet-Alid.
25:47Thank you, gentlemen, for enriching this debate tonight.
25:50This is the end of this episode of Questions d'Actu.
25:52Have a very good evening.