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00:00Donald Trump has been talking about the policies he intends to pursue and the people who will hold top posts when he takes over
00:07on January the 20th. Among the names already announced is that of Tom Homan, who is to be Trump's border and
00:15immigration czar. The issue was cited as one of the top priorities of many voters on the campaign trail and a key reason for
00:22Trump's win.
00:24Trump could not have been clearer on the campaign trail that he intended to clamp down on illegal entry to the US and
00:32expel illegal migrants. This package from Emerald Maxwell.
00:39Donald Trump made the announcement on his truth social network that Tom Homan, as his border czar,
00:45would be in charge of one of his signature campaign pledges.
00:49It will be the largest deportation in the history of our country and we have no choice.
00:55In practice, Trump's plan will be obstacle ridden.
00:58It's estimated that there are some 11 million people living illegally in the United States,
01:047 million of whom are known to the government. Nearly 80% of them have lived in the country for a decade or more.
01:11Immigrants who are in the country illegally have the right to due process before their removal and a drastic increase in
01:18deportations would likely clog up the courts, which are already beset by backlogs.
01:23Trump also plans to use a 1798 wartime statute known as the Alien Enemies Act to rapidly deport alleged gang members.
01:32A law that was used during World War I and II to intern people of Japanese, German and Italian descent and
01:38whose use would almost certainly be challenged in court.
01:42Trump's plan would furthermore require a huge law enforcement force,
01:46massive detention facilities, airplanes to move people and nations to accept them.
01:52The president-elect told NBC News there is no price tag to implement the plan.
01:57In practice, the cost is likely to run into the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.
02:03The implications of such a policy could also fundamentally reshape the country's economic landscape.
02:09Unauthorized immigrants represent about 4.8% of the workforce.
02:12If the plan targets them, sectors like construction, housing and agriculture will be hit hard.
02:20Well, I'm joined now here in the studio by Garrett Martin who is talking to me from the US.
02:27He's senior professional lecturer and the co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at the American University in Washington.
02:37Hello, Mr. Martin. Thank you so much for taking the time to join us here at France 24. Good to have you with us.
02:44Maybe we could begin just by taking a look at this appointment of Tom Homan as
02:50border security and immigration czar. Can you give us a bit about his background? What kind of person he is?
02:55What might we expect from him?
02:58Well, first of all, thank you very much for having me today.
03:01So I think Tom Homan is someone who has multiple decades working in law enforcement and in Border Patrol.
03:08So I think that's an element here. He's also someone who served in a
03:12deportation role, important directing role under the Obama administration,
03:16which had quite a heavy record of deportations. And then, of course, he was acting head of ICE, the Immigration and Customs
03:25Enforcement under the Department of Homeland Security under Donald Trump. And famously or infamously,
03:31it was in his time that you had the zero tolerance policy that led to family separation.
03:37Crucially, Tom Homan, after leaving
03:40government, also served as a regular correspondent on Fox News, where he continued to be very critical of the Biden administration and essentially
03:49espousing the Trump sort of narrative about immigration.
03:53So I think that's someone who is definitely a loyalist, as well as someone who was involved in Project 2025.
04:00But the separating of children from their parents, there was an outcry over that policy and in the end,
04:06Trump rescinded somewhat on it.
04:09This is several years on. This policy is hugely popular, was very popular in the
04:16campaign, the idea of deporting illegal migrants.
04:19Even among some Democrat voters. Are we likely to see the separating of children from parents again, do you think?
04:28It's not clear. I mean, some of, you know, how this policy would be implemented and the package video,
04:35I think, spoke to many of the significant logistical, moral and economic challenges.
04:40But what we've heard from people like Tom Homan is like this time, well, we won't have separation because we'll deport the whole family.
04:48The big issue here is, of course, you may have some people who are illegal immigrants,
04:53but who have been here for many years and who have children who are American citizens.
04:57And so that might lead, if you are not separating, you might lead to the mass deportation of people,
05:03but without any discriminating between people who are citizens and people who are not.
05:07That could certainly have huge potential for outcry, let alone the sort of the very nature of the policy.
05:15Will, for example,
05:17Mexico take illegal immigrants from Mexico back?
05:23What about those who don't have any documentation at all?
05:26And what about those who are not Mexican, but are from other countries?
05:32Well, I think that's an excellent question here, because one of the elements that was hinted at in the video,
05:36and which is crucial, is it requires the goodwill of third parties, namely other countries, to be able to welcome back citizens.
05:45If it is, I mean, if there are people who are, for instance, hardened criminals,
05:51that will be interesting to see whether countries are willing to take them back.
05:55It's also the fact that you have an immigration that is very multifaceted in terms of the countries of origin
06:01and includes countries like Venezuela, where the United States does not have good relations with the government in Caracas.
06:07So the challenges here, beyond even the other elements here of the logistics and even identifying people,
06:14will face significant diplomatic challenges.
06:18And of course, since Trump was last in power, we now have a new president in Mexico, Claudia Scheinbaum.
06:25Trump is threatening 25% tariffs on Mexican exports going into the United States.
06:32That is a very hefty part of Mexico's GDP.
06:37She's going to be under a lot of pressure to cooperate.
06:41And there are people suggesting that the Mexicans might, or Mexico, the Mexican government,
06:46might be very happy to have a tighter border between Mexico and the US,
06:51because Mexico is getting constant streams of migrants from further down, from South America,
06:59and it's creating a problem for Mexico.
07:00Do you think she might reach some sort of deal with him on this?
07:07I mean, it's certainly possible.
07:09And you're absolutely right that Mexico also has to deal with the mass flow of people, especially from Central America.
07:15However, I think to complicate the picture, the Trump administration has threatened to put forward also the remain in Mexico policy,
07:22which is basically having people who are applying for asylum have their cases or remain in Mexico until their cases are processed.
07:31If we are to expect this large deportation will also lead to a significant backlog amongst immigration courts,
07:38that could also mean having people staying in Mexico for prolonged periods.
07:43There's a huge human and economic cost for the Mexican government.
07:48Will Mexican public opinion also be particularly happy to have to deal with the ramification or the repercussions of the tariffs if they are imposed?
07:58So I think there may be a willingness in some respects to make a deal with the Trump administration,
08:03but there will be strong countervailing forces on the Chainbaum administration as well.
08:09We heard in our report there how back in the US, this would be an extremely expensive policy to pursue,
08:17trying to track down and expel all these illegal migrants, many of whom have settled, have jobs, as you say, might have children in the United States.
08:25Do you think in terms of public opinion in the US, I know you follow it very closely,
08:31that Americans will be prepared to pay their tax dollars for an operation like that?
08:39I think, because again, I think it's a very good point that this operation,
08:44you know, if it's even talking about increasing by tenfold the number of deportations,
08:50so something more akin to one million people,
08:54it would take the better part of a decade to deal with the estimated 11 people who are in an illegal sort of situation.
09:02So this would be a prolonged economic cost over a long period of time.
09:07And so I can imagine that you're going to have significant pushback.
09:10It's going to mobilize people at the ballot box.
09:14So we might see consequences far earlier than that at the next midterm elections in 2026.
09:20And finally, it also requires the cooperation of so many different agencies, local enforcement.
09:27And we know that a number of big cities have been derided as sanctuary cities.
09:32But the big democratic cities are not likely to cooperate.
09:36So even for that reason, that operation is likely to face significant roadblocks.
09:41The question is, is Trump really wanting to do this?
09:44Or does he want to give the perception that he's trying, which is a very different element here?
09:50Just finally, I heard in the campaigning just coming up to the election,
09:55I heard one voter saying that she would be voting Trump because he was the first person
10:01to publicly link crime with this uncontrolled border and migrants,
10:09undocumented migrants crossing over.
10:11And she said it was the first person to openly mention that and to link it
10:15and to raise the problem of fentanyl.
10:18Do you think the Democrats just refuse to address a problem and have suffered as a result?
10:24Well, I think they did not address sufficiently the fact that immigration is one of those subjects
10:33that can really lead to people project fears and concerns.
10:38Is there a large amount of people crossing every day?
10:41Yes. Are there a lot of myths about immigration?
10:45Absolutely. You know, 90 percent, I believe, of fentanyl that's smuggled into the United States
10:50is done through legal ports of entry and primarily by American citizens.
10:55Most people who are in an illegal situation enter legal ports of entry.
11:01They happen to overstay their visa.
11:03So there's certainly an element here of fears and myths.
11:07But those are certainly constantly put forward.
11:11And in a period of, I think, broader social and economic anxiety,
11:14those sort of narratives or discourse tend to resonate.
11:17I think the Democrats' mistake was to not understand these anxieties,
11:22even if they're not entirely based in fact.
11:25OK, well, we're out of time. We'll have to leave it there.
11:26Thank you so much, Garrett Martin of the Transatlantic Policy Centre in Washington.
11:32Really appreciate you sharing your thoughts with us here on France 24.
11:36Thanks very much.
11:37Thank you for having me.

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