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00:00It's a pleasure to see her in the flesh, Kristina Mrazina from the Atlantic Council.
00:04How are you?
00:05Excellent.
00:06How are you?
00:07All right.
00:08We've been harassing Kristina a lot since February of 2022, when Vladimir Putin launched
00:12his all-out invasion of Ukraine.
00:15When it comes to foreign policy, the whole world is, of course, watching, and in particular
00:22native Ukraine.
00:23Absolutely.
00:24So, it is a really big issue in this election.
00:27How does the foreign policy question get resolved?
00:30In some ways, it's a question about what happens next in Ukraine.
00:33Is there going to be an acceleration towards a ceasefire or a peace negotiation?
00:38Or is there going to be more time for Ukraine to make progress on the battlefield?
00:42And is that going to be a question of months, or are we looking at a question of years?
00:45That's a question probably between Trump and between Harris.
00:47And some are suggesting that even if Kamala Harris wins the election, Congress has in
00:53effect signed its last check for military aid to Ukraine.
00:57Is that your view?
00:58I think that's really hard to say.
00:59In some ways, we get into a different political moment after this election, after today.
01:04Then it comes back to a question of what is the American role, what are American values?
01:07I think it's not impossible for there actually to be more military aid between the middle
01:11of November and the end of the year.
01:13But so much depends on this election.
01:14So much depends upon the decisions that American people make today.
01:18But when I travel around the country, when I talk to Iowan farmers or military service
01:23members or people working on the energy side of things in the Appalachians, a lot of European
01:31issues make sense.
01:32I don't think you can say that there is a red foreign policy or a blue foreign policy.
01:36And I think there's a lot of nuance in the American people.
01:38And so in some ways it's oversimplified in the Washington conversation.
01:42But I think whether you have a Trump or a Harris presidency is going to really also
01:47change what that dynamic is like on the ground.
01:49Is Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, ready for a return of Donald Trump to the
01:54White House?
01:55Should that be the case?
01:56I think so.
01:57I think that perhaps in 2016 there was a surprise with Trump coming into power, but we're not
02:01in 2016.
02:02So Zelensky has a plan.
02:05Because let's listen to what Donald Trump had to say on the campaign trail.
02:13Inflation wouldn't have happened.
02:15Russia-Ukraine wouldn't have happened.
02:17Israel wouldn't have happened.
02:20The October 7th Israel attack would have never happened.
02:23Those people would all be alive.
02:27So he'll sit both sides down on day one, says Donald Trump.
02:32So is Volodymyr Zelensky ready for that?
02:36It's going to affect mean sitting down and conceding territory.
02:40Absolutely.
02:41Sorry.
02:42So there is a real chance that there could be, there needs to be a face-to-face conversation
02:47very soon.
02:48And, but this is not a surprise.
02:50This is something that Ukrainians and Europeans have been thinking about for the last few
02:53months.
02:54The fact that the reality as it is in the middle of November, it might be the military
02:57reality that is the reality that is dealt with around a negotiation table has been clear.
03:02The question is what are the political options on the table?
03:05And that's why I think when you look at Zelensky's police plan, the question of NATO is so important
03:09there, right?
03:10There's a military reality and there's a political menu.
03:13And everyone going into this election from the European side, from the Ukrainian side
03:18is aware of who they might have to deal with.
03:22And that's why the having an expansive lift and list and a high lift of what things that
03:27Ukrainians might want has been put out there.
03:31And the Ukrainians will have to advocate for themselves as much as possible.
03:34This Tuesday's election day in the United States, this Thursday, there's a European
03:38Council summit.
03:39And it's a tradition that every six months there's a new country that's the rotating
03:44chair of the European Council.
03:46This time it happens to be the most pro-Trump of the 27 members of the bloc, Hungary.
03:51It'll be taking place in Budapest.
03:56What are going to be the optics come Thursday if we're still in this position of indecision
04:02where we don't know who's winning?
04:04And Viktor Orban congratulates Donald Trump.
04:06Will that just be a bit of political theatre?
04:10I think we can expect there to be lots of warm words from Viktor Orban towards Trump,
04:15whether or not he is up or undecided or down.
04:18That is a relationship that has been steady throughout the past few years.
04:23And so that is an expectation.
04:25I think there's going to be a lot of caution from other European leaders if we don't know
04:28exactly who is up or who is down in the polls.
04:32But again, just because there's a rotating presidency and just because Orban has the
04:35floor, I think there's not much of a sense that he speaks on behalf of all of Europe.
04:39He is an individual on the European political scene.
04:44And I don't think there will be a misunderstanding on the American side should he say something
04:47that is not in line with what the other leaders say.
04:50And Christina, finally asking for a friend, France has right now kind of a hung parliament
04:57situation.
04:58We're probably going to have another snap election at some point soon.
05:02The national rally, which is also pro-Trump, the far-right party, is tipped to make yet
05:08more gains.
05:10Again, the result here, how much does that weigh on European politics?
05:16Europe is going to have to deal with a different United States after the next few months, whether
05:21that's a Trump United States or a Harris United States.
05:23It's hard to say.
05:24In either way, the responsibility for Europe to do more for its own security and defense
05:29and to show the fact that it is investing in developing its economy and its security
05:33and defense is going to be very important.
05:35It really doesn't matter whether that is Trump or that is Harris.
05:38The notion that the shifting of ambition on security has to happen to Europe no matter
05:45what, and whether that's rally or someone else on the French side, also doesn't necessarily
05:49matter.
05:50Someone is going to have to protect Europe.
05:53The Americans are there.
05:54The Americans are going to continue to be there in some form.
05:57The fact that there is ever more pressure for Europeans to do more, for France to do
06:00more for itself, whoever is in charge, is going to exist.
06:03All right.
06:04Cristina Brzezina, thank you so much for joining us.
06:06Thank you so much.
06:07Great to see you.