Is the world experiencing more impactful severe weather events? AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter talks with Ask The Experts about extreme weather.
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00:00Welcome to AccuWeather's Ask the Experts. I'm your host Jeff Cornish. We go beyond the
00:16forecast to give you the how and why on all the cool and interesting things you've wondered
00:20about and wanted to ask in weather, space and science. And today we're talking about
00:25the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, to find what makes an extreme event
00:30and show some examples including a historic freeze, a major nor'easter blizzard and also
00:35a catastrophic flooding event. Just a few of the types of weather that can change places
00:40forever and joining us now to discuss this is AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan
00:45Porter. John, always good to have you on the show. Good to be with you Jeff as always.
00:49It's good time talking to you here. Since you've been here at AccuWeather, since we
00:52both graduated in 2004, your new role leading the forecasting operation is one that you
00:58settled into very well over the past few years. It seems that we are seeing more frequent
01:03extreme weather events and I suspect for most of us, you know we don't get into the weather
01:08world because of partly sunny in 73. How did you get into the weather and what led you
01:13to this current position in the context of severe weather events? Well Jeff, that's right.
01:18I mean when you look at severe weather events, those are the most impactful to people. So
01:22many times they're dangerous. They can disrupt people's lives and their day to day plans
01:27and from a global perspective, we see increasing impacts from severe weather events driven
01:32by climate change and other factors as well. But what got me into meteorology was my interest.
01:39I grew up in northeast Connecticut and there we have a wide variety of different types
01:43of disruptive and severe weather ranging from snow storms to hurricane impacts at times,
01:49high wind events, flooding, rains, severe thunderstorms, the list goes on and on. But
01:54for me it was always the blizzards and the big snow storms. That's what got me hooked
01:58on meteorology and really it's what I wanted to do since I was four years old and you and
02:03I are classmates from our time at Penn State and you know that was always something here
02:10helping to be on the leading edge of innovation related to severe weather has been something
02:15that was always very important to me and one of the reasons that I've been so excited about
02:19our work here at AccuWeather. Absolutely. Well, before we get into some specific examples,
02:23we wanted to kind of define what the buzzword of extreme weather means. We talk about that
02:30phrase sometimes, people float it around. So what makes a weather event truly extreme?
02:35Well, I think there's a couple of factors to look at there. One is when you're dealing
02:39with a weather event where there's a risk to people and to people's life safety, to
02:45their everyday activities may disrupt their travel plans. They may have to work around
02:51changes to their schedule around it and also things that are not typical events that are
02:58occurring in various parts of the world. So when you see these flooding rainfall events
03:03or disastrous blizzard that occurs in a place where that's not a typical weather event.
03:09So it's an unusual weather event that can threaten people and property and we're certainly
03:14seeing an increased impact from those types of events all around the world. And one of
03:18the best ways to define something like this is to give some examples. I think people can
03:22relate to them. So we want to begin with the Buffalo Christmas blizzard of 2022. Let's
03:28talk about the storm itself. What happened with this severe weather event and how did
03:31it surprise some people? Well, this was such a dangerous storm and in a place like Buffalo,
03:37who is people who live in Buffalo and that part of New York near the Great Lakes are
03:41used to dealing with extreme cold waves. They're used to dealing with lake effect snow,
03:46heavy snow amounts. What happened here was that several factors conspired together to
03:51produce a tremendous tragedy where over 60 lives were lost in a scenario where there
03:57were rapidly falling temperatures to below zero in some cases along with gusty winds
04:04and snow, Jeff, that was falling at a rate of three to four inches per hour and even
04:10more in some cases. And all of that was poorly timed. It was right before the Christmas holiday
04:16and people were were driving around. They were perhaps doing their last minute Christmas
04:20shopping on their last day of work before the Christmas holiday. And all those factors,
04:25you had a combination of weather related factors and non weather related factors conspiring
04:30together to produce a tragedy and a disaster. And 60 plus lives lost. There are a lot of
04:36category three, four, possibly five hurricanes that don't produce that kind of a toll to
04:43human life in some cases. So a lot of people shrug off. They say, yes, Buffalo, they get
04:47a lot of snow. But this is a truly deadly situation. What were some of the other aspects
04:51of this and impacts of this storm? Well, I think another aspect of this and here at AccuWeather,
04:55we had the most accurate forecast on this blizzard and we used the best language, the
05:00best descriptions right in the AccuWeather app and right in the AccuWeather forecast
05:04talking about rapidly deteriorating travel conditions, rapidly falling temperatures.
05:10We were doing everything we could do to emphasize how unusual this was. Because as you said,
05:14and it's a reality that we consider, that Buffalo is a city that's used to dealing with
05:19big snowstorms, as we talked about. But what was particularly impactful about this storm
05:23and we knew this in advance and it's why we used those urgent messaging that we did, was
05:29that this was going to go from a dangerous situation, but a manageable one, to a true
05:35life-threatening emergency in the matter of a few minutes. And you saw people that were
05:39unprepared for that, that there were people who literally tragically froze in their cars.
05:46They were perhaps wearing shorts as they were just out for a quick errand or whatever the
05:49case may be. And they ended up in a complete scenario where you couldn't see five feet
05:55in front of you because the snow was falling so hard and it was getting whipped around
05:58by those gusty winds and the temperatures were falling to below zero. So it became an
06:03urgent life-threatening situation. And by the way, there was no travel ban in effect
06:08before the storm. And I believe that was a major factor why people were caught off guard
06:13because they eventually did put a travel ban in to effect, but it was only after the life
06:19threatening situations happened. And those bans can be very helpful in helping to communicate
06:25by the government just how serious and dangerous a situation can be. And it can be another
06:30deterrent for people to be out in such life-threatening conditions.
06:33And every storm is a learning experience. I know the City of Buffalo has kind of pivoted
06:37and taken some lessons learned in that event that we've seen implemented in more recent
06:40winters as well.
06:41And I actually think that's a great point. It's in a blueprint as well for what other
06:45cities can do because they did look at what happened in this horrible tragedy and through
06:51the state and the county, Erie County, and the city as well as other agencies, look at
06:56how they were going to better communicate in advance. And in a very dangerous situation
07:02this past winter involving, and that's when the Steelers and Buffalo Bills playoff game
07:07was occurring, they did enact proactive travel bans. And I think that was extremely helpful
07:14while there were tragically some lives lost. Nobody, to my knowledge, passed away in their
07:19car freezing to death or anything of that nature. That was a lesson learned and I think
07:24that's a blueprint of how other communities can best prepare. The more proactive they
07:29are, the more likely lives can be saved.
07:31And if we look at another extreme winter weather event, the volume of snow in one city doesn't
07:37correlate to the impact in another city. We had that I-95 disaster in January of 2022.
07:43So what happened in this storm in parts of Virginia?
07:45Well this was another one of these situations where the situation quickly escalated from
07:50a dangerous scenario to a truly life-threatening emergency in a matter of minutes. And AccuWeather
07:56expert meteorologists, we were alarmed by this setup in the days before the storm. And
08:02we used wording in our apps and in our products talking about that highway chaos might occur
08:07and that there would be rapidly deteriorating travel conditions. Because what happened here
08:11is there hadn't been a major snowstorm in the D.C. area for two or more years. And this
08:17was the first commute after the New Year holiday. So that's always going to be a challenge anyway.
08:24But the situation that we saw was that rain was going to be rapidly changing to snow.
08:29And that would occur so quickly. We described it as it was going to be like flicking a light
08:34switch in terms of how quickly that would occur. And as the temperatures plummeted,
08:38that rain that had previously wet the surfaces started to freeze. It created a thin layer
08:43of ice on top of which that snow started to rapidly accumulate. And the snow was falling
08:49one to three inches per hour. That's too fast for even the most experienced road crews to
08:55keep up with. And what ended up happening was I-95, there were numerous accidents including
09:00tractor trailer trucks that jackknifed. The road was shut down. Some people were stuck
09:05in their cars in a life-threatening situation for more than 30 hours. A real harrowing situation
09:11in that case. And yet again, no travel ban in advance. Now we know closing I-95 is a
09:18big deal. That's not something that's taken lightly. But if even the roadway had been
09:22closed for the time period that we had highlighted, a narrow time period in a narrow area, it
09:28might have averted that disaster. So again, the need to be proactive with regard to those
09:33travel bans, it can have a big impact. Absolutely. I know this one had, well, there were some
09:38senators and representatives heading back to Capitol Hill with this one. So certainly
09:43a lot of huge impacts, but a lot of eyeballs, a lot of conversation here with policy and
09:48so forth following that. And there were so many people that were just in a life-threatening
09:53situation that we, as a country, we have to say, you and I were talking about this on
09:58the air after the event, we said, we have to as a country say that stuff can't happen.
10:03The superior forecast was there from AccuWeather. It goes to then how government and other agencies
10:08react to it and how people change their plans. Absolutely. Very dangerous situation there.
10:12And again, this is Virginia. This was not North Dakota in a blizzard or something like
10:16that. A lot of great information so far, John. We're going to be talking a lot more with
10:20you in just a little bit. We're also going to dig into a viewer question or two. And
10:23coming up, we do have three striking facts about lightning that may spark an interest
10:28and may even shock you. But after the break, we're going to switch away from snow and ice
10:32and discuss some extreme flooding events. We've had no shortage of them in the past
10:36couple of years. We're going to ask your questions as well when Ask the Experts returns. Stay
10:42with us. You're on the AccuWeather Network.
11:03Welcome back to AccuWeather's Ask the Experts. I'm your host, Jeff Cornish. And today we
11:08are talking extreme weather events. And we are back with AccuWeather chief meteorologist
11:13John Porter giving examples, also giving you a little bit of information on maybe how you
11:17can best respond when one of these extremely impactful, dangerous, potentially deadly events
11:22occurs. And John, in the last segment, we talked a lot about winter weather events from
11:26Buffalo to Virginia. Nobody's really exempt unless you're in the Florida Keys. Right.
11:31So, well, extreme weather is not limited to any one time of the year. We want to talk
11:35about extreme rainfall in the fall of 2023. We had flash flooding that hit New York City
11:41here in September that year. And a coastal storm unleashed more than eight inches of
11:46rain in parts of New York City. Right in the metro, closed roads made major impacts on
11:50mass transit and it shut down rail and subway travel. And we want to talk a little bit more
11:55detail about this event. So, John, how did this break down?
11:59Well, the issue with this was, once again, the rainfall rates, how quickly the rain was
12:04falling. The rain was falling too fast, too furious at a rate of two to four inches of
12:10rain per hour. And one of the things that I've learned in my 20 years here at AccuWeather
12:15is that rainfall rate is so much more critical to defining where the most dangerous impacts
12:22occur than the storm total rainfall, for example. And in a highly populated, dense
12:29urban environment like New York City or Philadelphia, whenever the rain rate exceeds one and a half
12:34inches per hour, there's so much concrete, there's so much roadway, buildings, other
12:41impervious surfaces, there's nowhere for that water to go. And when it runs off, it's going
12:46to result in extreme flash flooding, like we saw in this particular event, with rain
12:50totals, as AccuWeather forecast before any other source, of four to eight inches falling
12:56at that rapid rate. And there were totals, as you mentioned, over ten inches in this
13:00particular storm. And it was interesting because it was a relatively narrow area that was mostly
13:05affected from midtown Manhattan east toward parts of Brooklyn and Queens and over to western
13:11Nassau County as well. So in that area, the impacts were significant with roads, streets
13:17that were turned into torrents of water in a matter of minutes. And once again, it quickly
13:23escalated from a dangerous situation to a life-threatening emergency in a matter of
13:27minutes.
13:28And how often are we seeing events like these? And should we be doing more as people or maybe
13:33as city administrators and governments to prepare?
13:35Well, I think we are seeing, there's no doubt we're seeing these extreme rain events occurring
13:40with greater frequency and impact. That is directly tied to global warming in terms of
13:45the fact that a warmer atmosphere on average promotes higher levels of moisture in the
13:50atmosphere. And when that can be wrung out in these different situations, we end up with
13:55these extensive heavy rain events. And one of the things that I've noticed over the years
14:00is that there are many protocols to deal with different types of severe weather events in
14:05various communities. Hurricanes, winter storms, high wind events, the list goes on and on.
14:11But there's an extreme vulnerability to these flash flooding events where some of the same
14:16life safety procedures are not necessarily enacted or some governments may not necessarily
14:22or businesses may not have a plan and they're underprepared for these types of situations.
14:27And that's an area I think that needs to continue to be enhanced going forward.
14:31And about two years earlier than that, same area, Hurricane Ida produced some devastating
14:37and really frightening flash flooding. So how did that storm with Hurricane Ida set up?
14:41Well, that was another interesting situation because AccuWeather meteorologists had warned
14:46about that flash flooding ahead of all other known sources before the storm even made landfall.
14:52We were obviously concerned that whenever you bring a tropical rainstorm up into the
14:58eastern part of the United States, it interacts with the Appalachian Mountains and then moves
15:02up the I-95 corridor and really merges with another storm system that was coming across
15:07from the Great Lakes. That process wrings out extra moisture. And so before the storm
15:14even made landfall, of course it was a devastating storm across portions of Louisiana where there
15:19was a storm surge and flooding rainfall and damaging winds. But before the storm made
15:24landfall, we warned that there would be a risk for days to come. And it was one of the
15:30highest forecasts for rainfall that we have ever made here at AccuWeather for the New York City area,
15:35saying there was going to be four to eight inches of rain widespread with an AccuWeather
15:40local storm max of a foot of rain. A very unusual heavy rain event. And we said the rain
15:45would come too fast, too furious. And there was catastrophic flash flooding. It was in fact
15:50the worst flash flood in New York City history. There were tragedies in surrounding states.
15:57Many people were injured or lost their life, including a Connecticut State Trooper in
16:02southwestern Connecticut, for example. And there are so many times where the water rises
16:10so quickly. And people who are unprepared for, or have not seen that kind of rainfall
16:14before, are caught off guard sometimes by how quickly the water rises. And even six
16:19inches, Jeff, of fast flowing water is enough to dislodge a car downstream. And so many
16:26times the tragedies in flash flooding events are associated with people driving in areas
16:31where water covers the road.
16:33Absolutely. Well, a quick viewer question comes from Brittany in North Carolina. Brittany
16:38writes, what's the best advice you can share for what to do during flash flooding or a
16:42flash flood warning?
16:44Well, I think the number one thing there is to know where you're at. And if you live in
16:48a low-lying area or if you live near a stream or a creek, you're going to be at extra risk
16:53for flooding impacts. And being proactive and out of an area like that before flooding
17:00starts is really important. The other thing I think is key is just because you haven't
17:05seen water in a particular part of a community, even if you've lived there your entire life,
17:11doesn't mean that in the next storm, with heavy rain amounts or a high rain rate, that
17:16flooding and, in fact, a life-threatening situation could even evolve in that area.
17:21So don't let your past experience be your guide in terms of assessing the risk. And
17:26most especially, if you're in a flash flood warning, consider avoiding travel or consider
17:32delaying that travel by even a little bit, even by an hour or two sometimes. It could
17:36save your life.
17:37John, some great information. Thanks for joining us here on Ask the Experts. We could do a
17:41lot of shows on extreme weather events like this. So thanks again.
17:45Good to be with you as always.
17:47Coming up next on WeatherWise, we've got three shockingly cool facts about lightning.
17:52Ask the Experts will be right back.
18:04Welcome back to AccuWeather's Ask the Experts. It is time now for WeatherWise and a segment
18:08we call Weather by the Numbers. Today we look at lightning and some shocking statistics.
18:13Our first number, 54,000. That's the temperature in degrees Fahrenheit that a lightning bolt
18:19can reach. For comparison, that is five times hotter than the surface of the sun. It is
18:24amazing to think that that kind of heat can be created from just a spark because that
18:28is how lightning forms in the atmosphere between clouds, the air, and the ground.
18:32Our next number, 270,000. Obviously lightning is fast. 270,000 is the speed in miles per
18:40hour that lightning travels. That's 30,000 times faster than a bullet at that time and
18:46at that speed. There is no time to react. That's why it's so important to get to a safe
18:50place when conditions are possible for lightning.
18:54Finally, our last number is 20,000,000. 20,000,000 is the average number of lightning strikes
18:59just in the United States every year. So where is lightning most common? Typically, Florida.
19:05Florida is the state with the most lightning strikes per square mile in any given year.
19:10And there have been recent years when portions of southeast Oklahoma have actually given
19:15the Sunshine State a run for its money with similar statistics.
19:19Thanks so much for joining us here on AccuWeather's Ask the Experts. I'm Jeff Cornish.
19:23Don't forget, when you have a question about weather, space, or science, you can write
19:26us or send us a video question at asktheexperts at accuweather.com.
19:31You can also call us at 888-566-6606.
19:36Thanks so much for being with us. Have a great one.