Polling experts worry that polls might be “herding” toward a similar result in the final days of the election—another possible theory behind why 2024’s polling may be accurate or lacking.
Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpastis/2024/11/01/presidential-polls-might-be-saving-face-in-final-election-sprint-heres-why-they-might-be-wrong/
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Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpastis/2024/11/01/presidential-polls-might-be-saving-face-in-final-election-sprint-heres-why-they-might-be-wrong/
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LifestyleTranscript
00:00Today on Forbes, here's how the presidential polls might be wrong.
00:06Polling for the 2024 presidential election shows the candidates in a dead heat.
00:11But experts say polling accuracy is complicated.
00:16President Donald Trump's intense, typically less engaged voter base has complicated presidential
00:21election polling in recent years.
00:23And as the election approaches without clear trends in polling data, experts are evaluating
00:28the theories behind where 2024's polling may be accurate and lacking.
00:34In 2020, presidential polling was called the, quote, most inaccurate in 40 years, and still
00:40inexplicably predicted President Joe Biden's win by more than 3 percentage points of his
00:45eventual margin, with some believing the pandemic caused less survey engagement and failed to
00:50capture Trump's support strengthening, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a panel
00:55of polling experts.
00:57In 2016, Hillary Clinton was widely projected to win by sweeping the key blue wall states
01:03of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but was edged by Trump in all three and lost handily.
01:10But the 2018 and 2022 midterm election polling were relatively accurate, further complicating
01:16pollsters' understanding of the factors at play.
01:19Now concerns around polling have returned as the race continues to be nearly tied, with
01:25concerns on both sides that incorrect polling figures, even a, quote, small, systematic
01:30polling error, could unpredictably skew the results, writes prominent statistician Nate
01:36Silver in The New York Times.
01:39Silver and other experts are concerned about so-called herding in polls.
01:44Herding explains how pollsters aim to protect their reputation by skewing toward a more
01:48widely acknowledged election result instead of an outlier that might be terribly wrong.
01:53The effect is more common in the last days of an election.
01:57Earlier this week, Silver raised concerns on X about herding, saying, quote, there are
02:02too many polls in the swing states that show the race exactly as Harris leading by one
02:06point, a tie, or Trump leading by one point.
02:10Silver said that there, quote, should be more variance than that.
02:15In political polling, dozens of firms survey thousands of people in many different ways,
02:20from mail surveys to phone calls and online surveys.
02:24Often, pollsters use a combination of outreach methods.
02:28They then employ several methods to try and make polling data more accurate, such as weighting
02:33it, or interviewing tactics to ensure more trustworthy results.
02:38This year, perhaps attempting to make up for misses the last few election cycles, pollsters
02:43are weighting their polls more than before.
02:46Some are concerned that might be skewing the polls.
02:49Nate Silver says, if anything, the polls show that a surprise is therefore equally
02:54likely for each side.
02:57What is weighting?
02:58Weighting emphasizes survey data, like a respondent's sex or age, that pollsters believe is underrepresented.
03:06During the 2018 midterm election, pollsters weighted by education to trim state polling
03:11inaccuracies in 2016's presidential election polling figures, which did not accurately
03:16reach voters with less education, according to the New York Times.
03:21After 2020, pollsters increasingly started weighting by what's known as recalled vote,
03:26or who the respondent recalled previously voting for, to make sure they were capturing
03:31enough Republicans.
03:33But some experts are concerned that emphasizing the recalled vote has flaws.
03:38Respondents might not remember their vote correctly and falsely record they voted for
03:42the winning candidate.
03:43For some polling operations, the recalled vote could inaccurately shape their predictions
03:48by reflecting opinions about a previous election.
03:51Even so, two in three polls use this technique in September, the New York Times reports.
03:56Then, there are multiple types of bias that pollsters worry can influence poll responses.
04:02Recency bias is the inclination to think the person who won most recently will win again.
04:08Voters might predict Trump will be the next president because he won in 2016.
04:13Non-response bias accounts for certain groups who show disinterest in taking polls.
04:18In the past, Trump supporters have tended to be less responsive to surveys and polling
04:22outreach, suggesting that polls end up underestimating them.
04:26But this year, some Democrats wonder if polls are similarly undercounting their traditional
04:31key demographics, including Black voters and young voters.
04:36The so-called patchwork theory says that the errors made in polling in 2016 and 2020 are
04:42entirely unrelated to each other and unrelated to midterm elections.
04:47These elections both faced a set of unique factors that led to the polls being wrong.
04:52Some argue that polls overrepresenting college-educated individuals and undecided voters pushed 2016
04:58polls in Clinton's favor.
05:00Others point out that in 2020, the pandemic's widespread influence on people's lifestyles
05:05and decisions affected the polls drastically.
05:09For full coverage, check out Steven Pastis' piece on Forbes.com.
05:15This is Kieran Meadows from Forbes.
05:17Thanks for tuning in.