Israel has delivered its long-expected response to Iranian missile attacks earlier this month. The IDF said its 'precise' strikes hit military targets throughout Iran. DW spoke to Alex Vatanka from the Washington-based Middle East Institute about the latest developments.
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00:00Right. Let's get some context from Alex Vatanka.
00:03He's a senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran program
00:07at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.
00:10Hello and welcome, Alex.
00:11Israel says it conducted precise strikes.
00:14Iran denies any major damage.
00:17What do you think?
00:20Look, I think so far the messaging from Tehran
00:24that speaks to limited damage done by these strikes
00:30really speaks to what Iran hopes will come next,
00:33which is to say that there won't be another follow-up,
00:36that this is Israel's retaliation.
00:39If that is the case, it seems to me,
00:42listening to Iranian officials,
00:44that Iran will be happy to sort of wrap this up,
00:47this round of tit for tat, if you will.
00:50But obviously we have to wait and see
00:52what Israel might do.
00:54I mean, the Israelis might consider this as one first wave,
00:58more waves to come.
00:59I doubt it.
01:00I think maybe for Israel, too,
01:02this is the moment where they're going to step back
01:04and say now they've retaliated.
01:05But again, impossible to know till we see
01:07what the Israelis might do in the next coming days or so.
01:13Right.
01:13What Israel did not do is not target nuclear and oil facilities,
01:20which is something the U.S. warned against.
01:23Why do you think Israel heeded the U.S. warnings?
01:28I mean, there are so many ways to look at that question.
01:30But frankly, I mean, we are in an election cycle.
01:33We're just a few weeks away, two weeks away,
01:36essentially, from the U.S. presidential election day.
01:40And I suspect, and this isn't just a suspicion,
01:44this has pretty much been articulated publicly
01:46by the Biden administration,
01:48from the U.S. side to the Israelis saying,
01:50look, don't do anything that would bring about consequences
01:54that we in the United States don't like to see.
01:57So, for example, a few weeks ago,
01:58we were talking about Israel potentially
01:59hitting Iran's nuclear facilities,
02:01critical energy infrastructure.
02:03The United States made very clear early on
02:05it wasn't willing to see any of that happening.
02:07So what we have instead are the reports
02:10of 140 Israeli aircraft, which if it's true, it's historic.
02:14I mean, it's the largest number of Israeli aircraft
02:16that I can recall ever in operation in the Middle East
02:19in history of the country of Israel.
02:20So if it's true that 140 Israeli aircraft took off
02:25and they hit 20 or so missile
02:26and other military sites in Iran,
02:29it's not just a symbolic gesture.
02:30Clearly, the Israelis are showing to the Iranian side
02:32the capacity to strike.
02:34And that's exactly what the United States is happy to see,
02:37that Israel makes its point.
02:39Hopefully, the Iranians will listen to that point,
02:41but it doesn't escalate any further.
02:43Right.
02:44Some experts believe Iran is trying to avoid
02:48an all-out war with Israel.
02:49However, Iran said that it, quote,
02:52has a duty and right to self-defense
02:55against foreign aggressors.
02:57In what way, if at all,
02:59could Iran respond to these attacks?
03:04What we've seen in the last seven months
03:05in terms of the tit for tat
03:07is when the Israelis have taken action against Iran,
03:10it began in Damascus,
03:11when Israel took out Iran's embassy in Damascus,
03:14and then the Iranians retaliated
03:15with the first round of missiles against Israel.
03:18And then you had the killing of Hassan Nasrallah.
03:21And then again, Iran retaliated October 1st.
03:24So what we've seen in terms of Iranian action
03:26are the use of ballistic missiles
03:28to some limit to extend drones.
03:30Most likely, that's all Iran really has
03:32in terms of a direct response from the Iranian homeland.
03:36I don't think that's what the Iranians want to do.
03:37I think the Iranians are hoping
03:40we can go back to a situation
03:41where this Iranian-Israeli fight,
03:45which is an old fight,
03:46but that this fight goes back to
03:47what it used to be,
03:49fought through proxies closer to Israel.
03:52Iran definitely does not want to see this war
03:55coming closer to the Iranian homeland.
03:57Rather, it wants to see the fighting happen
04:00in places like Gaza, perhaps West Bank,
04:03and certainly on these days.
04:05Right.
04:06This attack on Iran comes after
04:08the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
04:10toured the Middle East
04:12in an effort to push for a ceasefire.
04:14As things stand,
04:16there's not been much progress regarding a ceasefire.
04:19Why is that?
04:22Look, I mean, I think that really fundamentally
04:25goes back to the state of Israel
04:27and what it considers to be its national interest.
04:29They feel that October 7th attack of last year
04:33by Hamas against Israel changed everything.
04:36And that they are right now determined
04:38to destroy as many of their enemies
04:40in the so-called Iranian-backed
04:42axis of resistance as possible.
04:44So from Israel's point of view,
04:46a ceasefire right now could,
04:48in a worst-case scenario,
04:50just result in the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah
04:52taking the time out to regroup,
04:54to reorganize,
04:55to come back and carry out
04:56more strikes against the Israelis.
04:58Now, on the other side,
04:59obviously what US and other Western allies of Israel
05:03are telling Israel,
05:04and increasingly I think they're maybe
05:05being listened to,
05:06is that, look, there is no miniature solution
05:08to your problem with the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah.
05:11And if you do that,
05:12you might be finding yourself alone.
05:14And that's a real issue and challenge for Israel
05:16because Israel's biggest essentially asset here
05:19is that it has the backing
05:20of essentially the entire Western world.
05:22And without that backing,
05:23Israel would be in a much weaker position.
05:25And I think that is going to shape
05:26their calculations in terms of,
05:28you know, when they should accept
05:30that possible ceasefire that the US
05:32and Secretary of State Blinken
05:33has been pushing for.
05:34Thank you very much for that breakdown.
05:36Alex Batanka, Iran expert
05:38with the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.