The Dallas Mavericks made it to the NBA Finals last year. Peter Klein wonders if they can go one step further as he previews the entire Western Conference. He wonders if the Denver Nuggets can power through another tough off-season or are the Oklahoma City Thunder just too good.
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00:00Alright, just ran through the East, what about the West Conference?
00:13Western Conference, as some people would call it.
00:15We begin with the reigning and defending Western Conference champions.
00:20They are the Dallas Mavericks.
00:22Their total comes in at a whopping 49 and a half.
00:27They were one of the teams that I had undervalued going into this year.
00:31They won basically that same amount of games last year, and I think they are going to be
00:36significantly better this season.
00:39When you look at the moves that they made midseason, and how that turned things around
00:44for them, again, on both ends of the floor, this is still not going to be like the Rick
00:49Carlisle lockdown Pistons of 2004, but this is going to be, I think, a team that can go
00:56out and play enough defense that this great offense is going to help.
01:00And I do think Klay Thompson makes a real difference with this team this year, and is
01:06just the spot-up shooter that we all know and love him to be.
01:13And I think he really grows into kind of this Ray Allen type of a spot.
01:18And so, I do understand I am looking at all of this as best-case scenario for this team.
01:25And you got best-case scenario Kyrie last year.
01:27But I think even if either Kyrie gets hurt, or there is some kind of a weird thing that
01:33only happens with Kyrie, I think that this ends up being still a really good basketball
01:39team.
01:40And so, I gotta go.
01:42I gotta go with Dallas over the 49 and a half.
01:47And we are going to give that one a little bit of a circle for that particular play.
01:54The Denver Nuggets, they come in at 51 and a half.
01:57I think it's an under.
01:59I think that Jamal Murray looked so bad at the Olympics, and this team is, I think, going
02:08to spend this year figuring out which young players fit where.
02:12I don't think they're, like again, I think that the years of gearing up for a Jokic MVP
02:16are done.
02:17I think the years of going out and winning 60 games are done.
02:21I think that they are mainly focused on where do our young players fit, and how can we kind
02:27of maximize this.
02:28And I think that's going to lead to some growing pains out in Denver.
02:31So I have them under 51 and a half.
02:33The Golden State Warriors, at 43 and a half.
02:36This one, it's tough, because obviously things didn't go well last year.
02:43And now Klay is gone.
02:45I do think that they kind of recovered a little bit, but it is now up to the Kamingas, the
02:49Moodies, and the Pajemskis of the world to get this thing going.
02:52Another thing that I think you have to take into account, they got an MVP level season
02:56from Steph Curry last year.
02:59And I'm not doubting that he can do it again, I'm just saying you got all of that and you
03:03still barely squeaked in to the play-in, right?
03:08So I just, I don't have high hopes for this team.
03:12It's not fun going against Steph Curry, so we're not going to click on this one by any
03:16stretch of the imagination.
03:17But I think it's an under 43 and a half.
03:20The Houston Rockets, out in the Southwest Division, bet you didn't know that.
03:23Their total is at 43 and a half.
03:25I'm going over on this one, baby.
03:27I think that this was one of the teams we talked about when it was looking at what young
03:33players have a chance to take a couple steps this year.
03:36Houston has like, three of them.
03:37And you have another year with Fred Van Vliet, and another year with Dylan Brooks, and all
03:41these guys kind of locked in, another year of Emei implementing his systems.
03:45I think that this team has a chance to really make some noise in the NBA's Western Conference,
03:51and so I think the Houston Rockets have a chance to flirt with 50 wins, quite frankly.
03:57Up next, it is going to be the LA Clippers.
03:58This is an easy under for me, folks.
04:01You have Kawhi Leonard probably not ready for the start of the season.
04:07Who knows how much he's going to play at all this year.
04:11So that leaves the keys to the car with James Harden, and kind of nobody else.
04:16I hate this roster.
04:17I hate that it's going to be just James Harden, Isobal, for probably 45-50 games of this year.
04:24I think they're going to be absolutely abysmal.
04:27And so I have Clippers under 37 and a half.
04:31Lakers, 43 and a half.
04:32Again, I think it's under this.
04:34I think you got almost best case scenario last year.
04:38Maybe there is an upgrade from Darvin Ham to J.J. Redick, but I don't think so.
04:45I don't think that it is going to be a substantial one anyway.
04:49I don't think they brought in anyone that really changes how you view this team at all.
04:55And then you have the Brawny thing kind of hanging over all of it as well.
04:59There's more ways this goes wrong than more ways that it's all of a sudden a 48-win team
05:06or anything like that.
05:07I just don't see it.
05:08Memphis, they were one of my overvalued teams in the offseason.
05:12I understand the excitement around Ja Morant and all of those guys coming back.
05:19And this team that was awesome a few years ago, now getting a chance to be awesome again.
05:25But again, we are banking on the health, which already we had a scare in the preseason.
05:30And there's already a few different injury things going on with this group.
05:34And so while I do think that this is going to be an improved basketball team, I think
05:37that is a gigantic jump to assume from this team.
05:40So I'm going to go under 47.5 for Memphis.
05:43Minnesota at 52.5, I think that they got exactly what they needed from the Carl Anthony Towns
05:50trade.
05:51And so while you do kind of lower the talent level a little bit, I do think the fit is
05:56so much better.
05:57The one concern is definitely Julius Randle and how ball stoppy he can be, because Ant
06:02can kind of be a little bit of that as well sometimes.
06:05And so I do think you get a bit of a motivated Julius Randle coming out here, just launching
06:11threes and being the all-NBA player he can be.
06:13I think Anthony Edwards, that Olympic experience, always seems to help some of these guys.
06:17And I think Devin Chenzo really helps this bench unit and just kind of gives a little
06:22bit more structure to what they have throughout the lineup.
06:26So I think Minnesota, I think it's an over.
06:28I like this team a lot.
06:29And I think Anthony Edwards has a chance to really take a step up this year.
06:33The New Orleans Pelicans at 45.5.
06:35I go back and forth on this one so much, because the Ingram thing is such a distraction.
06:42And it's such an awkward situation, where you were basically like, yeah, he's going
06:45to be traded.
06:46And now it's opening night, and it's like, well, guess not.
06:49And so that can be something that hangs over.
06:50But also, Zion was basically healthy last year.
06:54He looks in shape, and he was everything we wanted Zion to be in that play-in game.
07:00Dragging them close with the Lakers, and then he ends up getting hurt, and it's a bit of
07:05a bummer.
07:06But I genuinely think that superstar dominant player is still in there, in Zion Williamson.
07:12And so, even with all the distractions, and even with an improved Western Conference,
07:16it's an over for me at 45.5 for New Orleans.
07:20For Oklahoma City, Hartenstein gets hurt for a little bit.
07:23Their total is at 56.5.
07:24I don't care.
07:25It is a high total.
07:27It is probably too high of a total.
07:29I'm taking it.
07:30This team could win 60 games easily.
07:32They are such a beautifully constructed team.
07:35Even with Hartenstein going out for a while, the addition of Caruso to help out with things
07:39defensively, I think is just fantastic.
07:42I think this team fits together so well when Hartenstein is back, and even when he's not,
07:46there's enough out there that they can still, you know, it's just going to be a really good
07:50basketball team.
07:52And so, I love over 56.5 for OKC.
07:56For the Phoenix Suns, their total is at 47.5.
07:59I like the over on this one.
08:00I think that this is going to be, I think, a bit of a year where they kind of put some
08:06things together.
08:07I think Booker having a really good Olympic experience, Kevin Durant still being him,
08:12and I actually think they kind of got the most out of what they could with limited cap
08:17space and everything in the offseason.
08:19So I think that they handled that situation really, really well.
08:22This is actually a pretty good basketball team, with a lot of high-end talent at the
08:26top part of it, so I like Phoenix to go out and to get the job done.
08:31I think that they put on a really good regular season, just kind of remind everyone how good
08:36a lot of their players are.
08:38Portland at 22.5, I think that this is one where, because you have flag at the end of
08:44the rainbow, where everything could be really exciting, I think that this is an opportunity
08:51now for Portland to maybe bottom out a little bit, and get one more kick at it, and then
08:55really start to grow next year.
08:57They have some pieces that I like, but I think it is going to be under 22.5.
09:00Toxic, I see the question, I'll get to it in just one second.
09:04Just going to wrap up the last three teams first, and then we'll get back to the Minnesota
09:07thing.
09:08Sacramento, 46.5.
09:09I had them as an undervalued team, I love this team this year.
09:12I think the addition of DeMar DeRozan gives them a little bit of half-court scoring that
09:16maybe they sometimes miss when things get bogged down against some of those more experienced
09:21teams.
09:22I think it allows them to have one of, if not two, of Fox, Sabonis, and DeRozan on
09:27the floor at basically all times, and I think it makes them a really really scary team.
09:33So I love this Sacramento group.
09:34I have them well over, at 46.5.
09:38San Antonio Spurs, it's an over for me, at 36.5.
09:41I think that just bringing in Chris Paul to be that adult in the room, and to get those
09:47entry passes to Wembley, is going to unlock so much more of this offense.
09:51And Wembley, again, coming off of the Olympics where he almost single-handedly, with maybe
09:57a bit of officiating help, led France to a gold medal against a Dream Team-esque team
10:03in the United States, I think he's brilliant.
10:07And I think that there is a real chance he wins MVP this year.
10:11I think he drags this team to probably close to 500.
10:15I have them over.
10:16Utah, 29.5.
10:17It's an under.
10:19For a couple of years they've had really great starts to the season, and then traded a bunch
10:22and fallen off.
10:23I don't think they mess around with a good start to the season this year.
10:25There are a couple talented players on this team, I just, I don't see it.
10:30I really don't.
10:31I think the West has gotten quite a bit better, and I think that they are going to get their
10:34asses kicked on a pretty regular basis.
10:38So I like getting Utah, and only needing them to win 29 games and have it still be a win
10:43for me.
10:48Talent-wise, I do think it made them worse.
10:50Like I think NBA 2K overall rating, it makes them worse.
10:55But it makes the puzzle pieces fit a little bit better.
10:57And so I think long-term it makes them a better basketball team.
11:00So I am going to say better for this group.
11:02I think that you still have Nas Reed, who absolutely balled out with no Carl Anthony
11:08Towns there last year.
11:09You have Julius Randle, who is very motivated in the final year of his contract to go out
11:15and prove that he can still be an all-NBA type of a player, and provide a real spark
11:21to this team on offense.
11:22And you have Dante DiVincenzo, who spent some pretty good stretches being the best player
11:27on the floor in a playoff series, when the Knicks were playing the Sixers and it was
11:30both bench units out there.
11:32I think that the experience and again the structure that he can bring is really going
11:36to help that second unit out in Minnesota, and maybe even help them close games.
11:39I would have to figure out how that roster would work.
11:41But I think that he is going to be such a kind of stabilizing force for this Minnesota
11:46team.
11:47So I have to say they get better with that.
11:49Alright, now it is time to make a couple picks on this one.
11:54And so we begin, Northwest Division winner, Oklahoma City the clear favorite to win this
11:59one at minus 143.
12:02And yeah, I think we just kind of have to pencil in OKC as the one seed right now.
12:09Pacific Division winner, the Phoenix Suns are at plus 170.
12:13Sacramento plus 250.
12:15I'm not getting all the value I want out of that one.
12:18So I'm not going to make that play.
12:20I wish it was a little bit higher, I thought it was maybe a bit more of a bold call.
12:24So I think Phoenix still ends up as the division winner in the Pacific Division at plus 170.
12:30I just don't know if we're getting the value that we necessarily want for that.
12:33But I do think Phoenix does finish as the two seed.
12:36I think that it will be Minnesota as the three, Denver finishes at, oh man, I have Denver
12:45finishing at the four, but even I don't know because we have to go to the Southwest, Dallas
12:48Mavericks plus 100 to win that division.
12:52Man, Houston Rockets at plus 650 is enough for me to actually roll with, and to actually,
12:59that might be a bit of a sprinkle play here.
13:02Enough value to have me think, I just think that they could have a real big breakout type
13:06of a season.
13:08So I'm going to have them as the five.
13:10I'm going to have Dallas as, god damn, man the West is tough, because like I'm talking
13:16all this shit about how great I think Sacramento's going to be, and now I have them in the play-in.
13:22That's where the West is this year.
13:24And then, I think I've got the three teams in the Northwest, right, OKC, Mini, and Denver.
13:31Am I missing anyone who needs, yeah, after that it's Utah at plus 50,000 to win the division.
13:37So that's good, we've chopped off that division, that's great.
13:40We got to get New Orleans in here, so they're going to be my eight.
13:43We're going to have Memphis come in as the nine.
13:46And so now, we have one spot left for San Antonio, Golden State, and the Lakers.
13:57Man, this is, you know what, I'm take committed on Wemby being the guy this year.
14:03I think Wemby does it.
14:04I think San Antonio gets into the play-in.
14:06Let's do it.
14:07Let's get crazy.
14:08Let's have some fun with it, shall we?
14:11So we're going to get San Antonio there in.
14:14So, our play-in, we're going to have Sacramento move on, they'll beat New Orleans, so they'll
14:18be the two seed against Phoenix.
14:21We will have, yeah, I think regardless of how the other play-in goes, New Orleans is
14:26getting in.
14:27So, again, I'm going super bold and having one through eight in both.
14:30Oklahoma City against the New Orleans Pelicans, again, I can talk all this about Zion and
14:34all this growth and everything like that, OKC is just kind of too perfect right now,
14:37so I will go with them.
14:39Phoenix against Sacramento, I think this is where I'm going to get my boldness for Sacramento.
14:42I'm going to say the Kings advance to the Western Conference semifinals with a victory
14:49there.
14:50Minnesota against Dallas, that is such a fun series again, but I do think again Dallas
14:54comes up with that victory, so I will have Dallas advancing there, and then Denver I
14:58do think beats Houston, so we get a semifinal of OKC-Denver and Sacramento against Dallas.
15:05The Western Conference final would then be OKC versus, we will say Dallas again, and
15:11I think OKC gets the job done, OKC versus Boston in the NBA finals, and I just think
15:18Oklahoma City is built perfectly, and I love how they're constructed, Oklahoma City, my
15:25NBA champions for the year.