How Republican-leaning Arizona became a swing state

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00:00The U.S. elections on November 5th, for all intents and purposes, will boil down to seven

00:04battleground or swing states, meaning they could go either Republican or Democrat,

00:09unlike the pretty much decided red or Republican and blue or Democratic states that lean and

00:15consistently vote either conservative or liberal ideologically or politically.

00:20Arizona, a traditional red or Republican state, has turned purple or swing after Joe Biden's

00:26razor-thin win in 2020. This year, former President Donald Trump and the Republicans

00:32have a slight edge, but well within the margin of error statistically, as per this VOA report.

00:40Arizona, home to more than 7.4 million people, historically leans towards Republicans.

00:48Over the past 76 years, only three Democratic presidential candidates

00:53have won the general election in the southwestern state. Harry Truman in 1948,

00:59Bill Clinton in 1996, and Joe Biden, who pulled off a narrow victory in 2020.

01:06This election year, the race is tight again. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican,

01:12and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, are battling it out for Arizona's 11 electoral votes.

01:23I think it kind of underscores kind of this independent nature of Arizona. You know,

01:27we've kind of, it's a strongly unaffiliated, but also kind of libertarian.

01:33Libertarians believe liberty is the most important political value,

01:38which can be achieved by limiting government power.

01:41Predicting their vote becomes very challenging, because how they vote in one election doesn't

01:47necessarily mean they're going to vote in the next election. And they're notoriously

01:51ticket splitters, right? So they vote differently.

01:54The electorate in Arizona is changing, and that's making it more of a battleground state.

01:59Those changes include a growing Hispanic population,

02:03about one-third of the electorate, that is finally old enough to vote.

02:07For this election, those Gen Z voters, those under the age of 30, are now mirroring

02:16the population in general of Arizona, and that's occurring for the first time.

02:19There is definitely a trend among older Latino voters, perhaps, of not being

02:24distinctly or primarily Democrat. Younger voters tend to be.

02:30The other major change impacting voting patterns is the large number of people,

02:35particularly from California, moving to the state. According to U.S. Census figures,

02:41more than 74,000 people moved from California to Arizona between 2021 and 2022.

02:48They tend to be a more Democratic or liberal vote that has kind of come in and permeate some of our,

02:55particularly our larger metropolitan areas. Larger metro areas like Maricopa County,

03:01home to the state capital of Phoenix, and more than half of Arizona's population.

03:06Whoever wins Maricopa usually wins the state.

03:10It's that process where we have these big cities that are now coming to dominate state-level

03:14politics. In the case of Arizona, Maricopa County is now about 60 percent of the total state.

03:21And then you have Pima County, which is another about 12 percent or so.

03:24So you have two counties that really dominate most of Arizona politics.

03:27According to Riley, the three issues that Arizonans care most about are the economy,

03:33reproductive rights, and immigration. Two of those issues are on the November ballot.

03:39Proposition 139 would codify a woman's right to an abortion in Arizona.

03:44Proposition 314 would make illegally crossing the Arizona-Mexico border a state crime in addition

03:51to a federal crime. One issue could drive more liberal voters to the polls, while the other

03:57could energize conservative voters. We might see some split ticking there, right, that they

04:03maybe feel strongly on immigration and the border issue and would vote for one candidate there,

04:08but also feel strongly about reproductive rights and vote differently there.

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