Analysts are expecting more military activity from China following Taiwan’s National Day celebration earlier this week. That could include another round of large-scale exercises last seen after President Lai Ching-te's inauguration speech in May.
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00:00So, Michael, given the timing, you know, we have Taiwan celebrating its national day and
00:05we also have former President Tsai Ing-wen going on her first overseas trip to Europe.
00:10Do you think China is going to react with any sort of large scale exercises like what
00:14we saw with Joint Sword A, those military drills after Lai Ching-de was inaugurated?
00:20I mean, nobody can predict the future, but it seems very reasonable to expect that China
00:25is going to have some sort of, I don't want to say reaction because I think pretext is
00:30the right word.
00:31I think they're looking for an excuse and this speech is obviously going to give them
00:36something.
00:37And even if Lai doesn't say something provocative, they'll find something to take umbrage at.
00:42So I do, I do expect that we're going to see some sort of a reaction, whether that rises
00:46to the level of a Joint Sword 2024 Bravo or not, obviously we'll, we'll soon find out.
00:52Do you think that these exercises are planned, uh, do you think this is more of a reaction
00:57or do you think China has these drills kind of already drawn up and is waiting for some
01:01sort of pretext to conduct these drills?
01:04No, I think it's an important thing to keep in mind when we're referring to China looking
01:08for a pretext to do one of these demonstrations.
01:11It's just, it is extraordinarily unlikely that China's military can put together an
01:17operation of the scale that we saw a Joint Sword 2024 Alpha in a matter of days.
01:23I mean, we are talking about a joint operation with multiple services.
01:27The plans at the very least had to have been laid out weeks, months, or even longer in
01:31advance and chances are notifications went out long before that too, just to get the
01:35people and the equipment in place.
01:37And so no, no military can put something together in a couple of days.
01:41And so therefore I do think it's China looking for an excuse to do something that it already
01:46had a plan to do.
01:47And it seems like China is gradually upping the military pressure on Taiwan with, with
01:53aircraft and ships operating in the region almost on a daily basis.
01:56Would you say this is still business as usual, Taiwan can manage this or should we be concerned?
02:02You know, my take on this, which is the time for business as usual passed many, many years
02:07ago.
02:08I think you put it again very well that we are looking at a just very gradual but inevitable
02:14shift in the military balance in the Taiwan Strait.
02:18That balance has been shifting in China's favor for decades at this point.
02:22And as it accrues more and more military power, the fact of the matter remains Taiwan is relatively
02:27small.
02:28It's very close.
02:29The United States is far away.
02:31And so China's options for resolving this standoff militarily just grow and grow and
02:35grow.
02:36And so, yeah, I think Taiwan, if it hasn't already needs to take this threat very seriously,
02:41it does not mean war is inevitable, but you want to do everything possible to just convince
02:46Xi and the military leadership that the military solution is not the way to go.