Tesla Stock Crash: Should You Buy or Sell?

MonTalks

Tesla, the electric vehicle pioneer led by visionary Elon Musk, has captured the attention of investors worldwide. The company's innovative products, strong market position, and ambitious goals have fueled significant growth in its stock price.  Tesla's stock, traded under the ticker symbol TSLA, has experienced significant fluctuations in recent years. While it has seen periods of rapid growth, it has also faced challenges and market corrections. Investors closely monitor Tesla's stock price for indications of the company's financial health and future prospects.  Factors influencing Tesla's stock price include:  Product launches and performance: New vehicle models, production ramp-ups, and the success of existing products can significantly impact the stock price. Financial results: Quarterly earnings reports, revenue growth, and profitability are key indicators of Tesla's performance. Industry trends: Developments in the electric vehicle market, government policies, and competition can affect Tesla's stock price. Elon Musk's influence: Musk's public statements and actions can have a substantial impact on investor sentiment and the stock price. For those interested in investing in Tesla, it's essential to conduct thorough research and consider the risks involved. Tesla's stock can be volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results.  Key resources for information on Tesla's stock:  Financial news websites: Websites like Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC provide real-time updates on Tesla's stock price and news. Investment platforms: Platforms like Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, and MarketWatch offer detailed information on Tesla's stock, including historical data, charts, and analysis. Tesla's investor relations website: Visit Tesla's investor relations website for official company announcements, financial reports, and presentations.

Transcript

00:00I told you guys, I did. A week ago, I made a video on how Tesla's gonna sell off, it's gonna be

00:05sell the news event on 11-10. What happened on 11-10, the next day, which is today, the stock is

00:11down 8%. And I've warned you guys about this. Look, the analysts were looking for something

00:16completely different than what was going to be shown. This was called a robotaxi event,

00:21we robot event. There's nothing to do with the compact car or a separate car, nothing, nothing.

00:27I was expecting a one more thing at the end to show some low affordable vehicle,

00:32not necessarily the compact car, but this was a robotaxi event. Nobody should have expected

00:38a compact car, but these analysts were expecting a compact car. Oh man, this is easy. It's so easy

00:45to predict these things, but I told you guys, I told you. Here's the thing, don't panic.

00:49There's nothing to be afraid of. And this was expected to happen. And you know what,

00:53with every product launch that Tesla does, the same pattern happens. There's always a sell off,

00:57but down the line, something magical happens. And that's why I'm saying, don't worry. Things

01:02are going to get so much better in the future if you're a long-term Tesla holder. What now?

01:07We're going to talk about it in this video, but we're first going to talk about why the stock

01:11crashed the way it did and what Wall Street is thinking, because it's very important to know

01:15where they stand right now, because these guys have the big bucks. These guys are the one that

01:18can move the stock up and high and low whenever, however they like. These guys have the big bucks

01:24to do it. And if Wall Street doesn't like it, they're going to sell off as just predicted,

01:27as I predicted. That's what happened. So smash that like button, hit subscribe if you haven't

01:31already. Let's get down to it. So Gene Monster, who is a Tesla bull, came out and said this on X.

01:36Shares of Tesla is down around 6% pre-market. Now it's 8% after market, well during the market,

01:42for two reasons. Number one, timing of Cybercap is still two plus years away. Too far for the

01:48incremental investor to put much weight into the opportunity, and the timing asks existing investors

01:53to continue the waiting game. Yep, that's true. Elon did say that the Cybercap is going to be

01:58around 2026, but he's missing something very important that's going to happen in 2025, and

02:04that's the Model 3 and Y becoming, you know, robo-taxi ride sharing, you know, they're going to

02:09become robo-taxis in Texas and California. That needs to be evaluated. That's a big deal.

02:15That's cheaper than Waymo and stuff, and that's going to be the Model 3 and Y, and they're starting next

02:20year. That's a big one. But yes, the Cybercap, Elon did mention that it's going to be below

02:25$30,000, so this is pretty much the compact car, the Cybercap. I think they got rid of the idea of

02:30putting a pedal and a wheel here. They said, no, this is going to be the robo-taxi, that's it. We still

02:35have low affordable vehicles coming in the first half of 2025, they're still coming. No one said

02:38it's cancelled, and we'll learn more about it on Q3 earnings call, but those are still coming.

02:43The Cybercap is the compact car, guys. That's what Tesla, Elon was trying to say yesterday.

02:49And what Gene is saying here is that the Cybercap, yes, it's below $30,000 vehicle, but it's two plus

02:54years from now, and we Wall Street analysts can't look beyond 6 to 12 months. And for current

02:59investors, it's a waiting game until then. That's what he's saying. So that's his first reasoning.

03:04His take on that is that the disappointment makes sense. Tesla investors has been waiting for a few

03:09things recently, including improving margins, higher growth delivery rates, and FSD. I feel the

03:14Cybercap falls squarely into the worth the wait camp, and even if it's three years before it sees

03:19the light of day, investors will be rewarded, and I completely agree with this. Here's the thing,

03:23guys. Yeah, in 2025 could be a similar year to 2024 in deliveries, but earnings are going to

03:28be different because interest rates are going down. Tesla's going to be making more money.

03:32And we've got other things coming. Of course, Cybertruck's going to continue to be ramping.

03:36The affordable vehicles that are like low $30,000, they're going to be coming, right?

03:41Existing lines. We can't forget about that. And the robo-taxi ride hauling sharing, that thing is

03:46coming in 2025, and that's 60 to 80% gross margins. So good things are happening in 2025, and if Trump

03:53wins, that's a big catalyst for this year. If Trump wins, then we can see a rally in the stock as

03:56well, and interest rates coming down even more. It's going to be a good year for Tesla. I do think

04:00so. It's going to be a better year than 2024, although delivery growth, I think, is going to

04:03stay a little bit more stagnant, maybe a little bit higher, if they don't produce their low

04:08affordable vehicles, which I do think they will. And if they do, I think 2025 is going to be a good

04:13year. His second reasoning is that there was no word about the more affordable model that Elon

04:18suggested would be available sometime between late this year and mid-2025. And I'm not going

04:22to lie. This is the one more thing that I was looking forward to, but they didn't mention it.

04:27Again, we'll know more about it in Q3 earnings call when people ask, when analysts ask them,

04:32hey, what happened to this thing? Are you guys still coming out with this low affordable car?

04:36And I think the answer is still yes, and they didn't want to say it here, and I think Elon

04:41is not going to give a straight answer, but he's going to hint that everything is on track. You

04:46guys will see it once we decide to unveil it and show it to you guys, because we have to be able

04:51to produce it as soon as we unveil it. So I think this is still in the works, but yes, this was the

04:56thing that I was looking forward to for the one more thing. But it's okay. It's a Robotaxi event,

05:01fully understood. His take on this is that the cheaper car is still in the works, which I 100%

05:05agree. My guess is timing will be late 2025 for initial production. The reason why they get held

05:10off was there is little reward for them to highlight a cheaper model, given it risks buyers

05:15hitting the pause today on Model 3 and the Model Y. Yeah, again, Osborne effect is what he's talking

05:21about. So this is Gene Monster. He is an analyst in Wall Street, and he's a Tesla bull, and this

05:26is his reasoning. Gary Black has his own reasoning too, but it's similar. He says here that many Tesla

05:31investors asking why Tesla is negative 6% pre-market following cyber cap unveil, which is now 8%

05:37during the market. Number one, long on promise. Few specifics on how Tesla goes from FSD,

05:43supervised to unsupervised autonomy by end of 2025. No 25,000, 30,000 compact announcement.

05:48There it is again. We didn't expect one Osborne effect, but apparently some did. Uh, no, not some

05:54did. Everyone did. All the analysts did. That's the reason why the stock's going down. They didn't

05:59announce a 2020. They didn't announce a compact car that's going to come out this year or 2025.

06:04That's it. That's it. Number three, sell the news after 68% Tesla run-up since the late April.

06:09We maintain our 270 price target, six to 12 months. So a little bit different than Gene's,

06:15but nonetheless, it's very, very similar. Kind of shocked to him to say that they were, you know,

06:20he thought that only some did, you know, expect the compact car. No, everyone did. All analysts

06:26But here's the thing. Don't panic. Okay. Here is why you shouldn't panic because this isn't the

06:33first time when Tesla unveils an earth shattering changing product. And then the stock sells off the

06:39next day. Shout out to Kim Java here. Doubt them. They want you to. When Tesla unveiled the world's

06:43best-selling car in 2018, which was the model Y, the market reacted next morning with a Tesla

06:49falling 5%. When they unveiled America's best-selling electric car in 2019, more sales

06:54than all e-trucks combined, market reacted the next morning with a 6% drop. Robot taxi

07:00unveiled resulted in a 7% drop this morning for Tesla. Now it's 8%. It's par for, of course. And

07:06if anything reassures, they could be another big hit by the end of the decade. Now let's go to the

07:11stock here. Now for the record, the model Y got unveiled on March 3rd of 2019. So if you go to

07:16the stock right now and find March, it was down 5% exactly. And then what happened after look at

07:20that roar. And it's became the world's best-selling vehicle. Same thing is going to, it's the same

07:25thing. It's the same thing with the cyber cap. And the thing is this cyber cap is so compact that

07:30they can make millions. And since everybody can buy it, it's not going to be just a Tesla service

07:34thing. Maybe it will be, you know, in the beginning and maybe Tesla will take 20, 30% just for their

07:38own, but people can buy it. 25 to $30,000 vehicle and you can make money from it. It's insane.

07:44It's insane. It's disrupting, you know, car sales, transportation, and just everything. It's literally

07:51the best way to, you know, to transition to sustainable energy. It's insane. And then we've

07:56got the robo van as well, but that's, you know, we'll talk about that later. Let's talk about why

08:00the stock is down, why you shouldn't be worried. Now, shout out to Lord Pretty Flacko here. He made

08:05some really interesting remarks. He says that it's so funny that people are making a big deal about

08:10production timeline for the cyber cap. It's not that big of a deal. He is right. When he literally

08:14said we're launching unsupervised FSD in California and Texas in 2025 with model three and Y. Again,

08:20that's the reason why I'm going all in Tesla stocks because of this, that full self unsupervised,

08:24full self driving, the full self driving, the robot taxi, of course, but it's happening next

08:28year in two States and then slowly and slowly. And then once this cyber cap is there, it's just

08:33go straight to work, man. There's no red tape to go through because Waymo and the three and Y

08:38unsupervised FSD is going to cut majority of the red tape for them in the US and then slowly in

08:43Canada and then FSD in China and then Europe and then slowly around the world. So I 100% agree with

08:48this. He also says he puts a very good timeline out here too, which is very important. I was going

08:52to do this, but he did it. He beat me to it. He said the first half of 2025 next gen compact plus

08:57affordable base models unveiled and go into production. That's happening in in six months,

09:02guys, like like six to nine months, right? Like this is what they this is what Wall Street was

09:07looking to hear, but they didn't get it. That's why they sold it off. But I'm pretty sure once

09:11they hear it again, stocks going to come back again because they're going to add it back to

09:13their valuation spreadsheet and all that stuff. FSD China plus EU launch. That's a very big deal.

09:19First FSD licensing OEM announcement. I'm not too sure about that, but if that happens,

09:23obviously welcome it. Second half of 2025 unsupervised FSD ride hauling launches in

09:28California and Texas using Model Y and three, which is very important. And then 2026, not only

09:33do you get the Cybercat production, but you get the Optimus production. Then 2026 is going to be

09:38an insane year. 2025 is going to be a really good year, too. But 2026 is going to be an insane year.

09:44And these things are not going to be small productions. They're going to be in mass

09:47productions. This is why you guys shouldn't panic and embrace this buy like I did today. I bought

09:53some today and I'm so close to hitting a thousand shares. I think I'm going to do it. Screw it. I'm

09:56going to go over a thousand shares. I don't care. This was amazing. And you guys can see his

10:00additional observations here with cost per mile, 70% gross margins and all the other interesting

10:06stuff. But you guys see the long term is looking very good. It's just it's amazing that we're

10:12getting two new products, which is going to be autonomous, the Robovan and the Cybercab.

10:17It's going to be it's it's it's crazy. This is why you guys should not be a short term

10:22investor for Tesla. Just two more years, guys. Two more years. It's two more years. It's going

10:28to be absolutely insane. Two more years. I still think next year is going to be a really good year

10:32in 2025. But 2026 is going to be the year of production for Tesla when it comes to their

10:38next gen stuff, their important stuff, the Cybercab and FSD and the Robotaxi and Optimus and all these

10:45other crazy things, the Robovan even. Now, obviously, none of this is financial advice,

10:49but what I'm doing is I'm buying this dip. I'm buying this dip. Now, there's two big catalysts

10:53for this year until we go to 2025. Number one, Trump winning. If Trump wins, we're going to see

10:59the stock price. I mean, for sure, because, you know, Trump and Elon, they're going to do good

11:03stuff. It's going to work. The second catalyst is Q3 earnings being beat and Q4 earnings as well.

11:08I guess there's a third catalyst, too, which is interest rate cuts being interest rate being cut.

11:12I think that's definitely going to be a catalyst as well. So I guess you can say three catalysts

11:15for this year. And you guys saw what happened when interest rate got cut earlier this year,

11:20the stock went up crazy. And this will continue to go because that's higher margins for Tesla

11:25and demand coming back for cars. So we do have catalysts coming. Now, some of them is a 50-50

11:30with Trump and Kamala. That's a 50-50, I think, although Trump is going to win, in my opinion.

11:35But if Trump wins, that's bullish. Q3, Q4 earnings need to be a beat so we can have the EPS growth

11:39going up and interest rates need to come down so it can all come together so Tesla can get better

11:44and stronger margins going into 2025. So there's a lot of good stuff coming. There's a lot of good

11:49stuff coming. And even worst case scenario, again, 2025 is going to be a very good year because we're

11:55seeing, again, the 3NY unsupervised FSD coming up, version 13, Europe, China, affordable vehicles.

12:02There's a lot of things happening next year. So I wouldn't bet against that. I really wouldn't.

12:07Now, if I didn't know any better, Cathie Woods in the latest interview was saying to buy the stock

12:12now. Enough financial advice, but you guys can make your own judgment right here in this video

12:16of what she said because the numbers are crazy. Her analysis is crazy, but Elon endorsed it, so it may

12:22not be that crazy. So you guys can be your own judge. Check it out. Subscribe, guys. Get your

12:25I bought the tip t-shirts, and I shall see you guys in the next video. See ya!

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