Gold Price Outlook: धनतेरस और दिवाली तक कितना गिरेगा सोना का भाव? चांदी को लेकर क्या है अनुमान?
Summary: सोने की कीमतों तूफानी तेजी है. चांदी में भी तेजी जारी है. दोनों के भाव 2024 में अब तक 20% तक चढ़ गए हैं. फेस्टिव सीजन में आगे दशहरा, धनतेरस और फिर दिवाली है. ऐसे में सोने और चांदी के भाव को लेकर क्या अनुमान है? क्या आने वाले दिनों में भाव गिरेंगे या फिर तेजी जारी रहेगी? इस तरह के सभी सवालों के जबाव के लिए गुडरिटर्न्स के साथ खास बातचीत के लिए मोतीलाल ओसवाल फाइनेंशियल सर्विसेज के मानव मोदी जुड़े...
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#goldrate #gold #goldprice #goldforecast
#silverprice #silverrate #Silver #GoldPrediction #24kgold #22kGold #GoldRateNews #GoldPriceNews #GoldRateToday #GoldPriceToday #SilverRateToday #SilverPriceToday #BreakingNews #GoldvsSilver #SilverInvestment #SilverRate #SilverPrediction #SilverOutlook #SilverForecast
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar, my name is Digvijay Singh. Welcome to Good Returns.
00:04Today we will talk about gold.
00:06Because there is Dussehra, Dhanteras, Diwali and after that there is the season of weddings.
00:10In such a situation, what are the predictions about the prices of gold and silver?
00:14Will the prices fall in the coming days or will they continue to rise?
00:18We will understand all this.
00:19Today we have joined us for a special conversation
00:22Mr. Manav Modi from Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
00:26Mr. Manav, welcome to you.
00:30Thank you for inviting me.
00:32Happy Navratri to all of you.
00:35To you too.
00:36First of all, we will understand what is going on in the bullion market these days.
00:42It is continuously increasing.
00:44What is exactly happening?
00:46As an expert, what are you seeing in the bullion market?
00:48What is the movement?
00:49Where is the enthusiasm coming from?
00:51Please tell us.
00:52Yes, absolutely.
00:53I think if you see this whole year, there has been a taste of gold.
00:57If you see, it is called a safe haven asset.
00:59It looks like a year of safe haven.
01:01If you talk about the comics chart in the international market,
01:08then in the monthly chart, there are only 2 candles where there is a red closing.
01:14And that too of minor dips.
01:16It has been 9 months and all the candles are almost green.
01:20If we remove the duty cut portion in M6, then it is going very well.
01:26If we look at the percentage terms, then in the comics, gold is 30% higher.
01:31Similarly, on the domestic front M6, we saw a movement of around 20%.
01:36We can say that it is a historic run because gold is moving very well from the average run.
01:42So, the excitement that is seen in gold and silver,
01:45how much will it give taste to our buyers in the festive season?
01:49Now, there is Dussehra and Diwali ahead.
01:52Then the season of weddings will start.
01:55So, first of all, what level are you looking at for Dussehra and Diwali?
02:01If we look at some factors around Diwali and Dussehra,
02:08recently the Fed announced a rate cut of 50 basis points.
02:13In November, there are US elections.
02:17So, in the beginning of November, there are US elections and Fed meetings.
02:21In the US elections, the rate cut of 25 basis points is already factoring in.
02:27In this year, there are two Fed meetings, one in November and one in December.
02:33So, in both, the rate cut is very strong.
02:36Secondly, if we look at geopolitical tensions, they are continuously increasing.
02:40So, there is support for that as well.
02:42If we talk about returns, if there is a movement of 20% in the domestic front,
02:47then there can be a drop in profit bookings from that 20% till Diwali.
02:53And from there, there can be a rally again by the end of the year.
02:57So, I think 74-800 will be a very good level.
03:0274-500 and 74-800 is a very good range to buy on an immediate basis.
03:07And if we look at the upside from here,
03:10the immediate gains from this year can be a little limited.
03:14Because we have seen good gains.
03:16And if we see a rally again in the next year,
03:18then immediately 77-200 is a very good level,
03:23as far as gold is concerned, we can see till this year.
03:27So, this was about Dashera and ARN.
03:30If I look at the start of the wedding season,
03:32will there be an increase in the prices?
03:34You are saying that there is a little concern.
03:36So, will there be an increase in the prices during the wedding season
03:40or will there be a drop in the profit bookings in gold?
03:45I think profit bookings are warranted.
03:47Because if you look at any asset, be it equity, gold, silver or any other asset,
03:52a one-way rally does not give any asset.
03:55And if there is a one-way rally, then it can be a little scary.
04:00But after a one-way rally, there is a slight drop.
04:04So, it is a good thing for all the market participants.
04:07And it seems that there can be a slight drop in gold as well.
04:11But definitely, we have come to a very high range.
04:14So, if I talk about a fall of Rs. 1000,
04:17then it may not have such an impact in the physical market.
04:21But definitely, if we talk about MCA, ETF or any other investment terms,
04:26then we can play a larger margin of Rs. 1000 fall.
04:30So, this Fed, the Central Bank of America,
04:33there and the meetings of RBI,
04:36apart from these triggers,
04:38what other triggers will be seen, especially in the bullion market,
04:41if we talk about the global and domestic front?
04:43Yes, definitely.
04:44I think you have talked about RBI.
04:46RBI is the only major central bank.
04:49If we keep Fed, ECB and BOE in the list,
04:53then RBI is the only central bank that has not yet announced a rate cut.
04:57And it is also profitable.
04:59Because if you see, both inflation and growth have to be balanced.
05:03So, growth concerns were increasing in other countries.
05:06India's growth concerns are not so much.
05:10Keeping inflation in check, the RBI governor has taken that stance.
05:14We have to see that USDINR has depreciated by 1% this year.
05:20Now, if there is a rate cut,
05:22then we may get the impact of that depreciation on the domestic front.
05:27That is one factor.
05:29The second factor is, apart from Fed,
05:34geopolitical tensions are at the forefront.
05:37Especially in the Middle East, Israel, Hamas and neighboring countries like Iran,
05:42if their trend escalates,
05:45with the intervention of the US and other countries,
05:48then it can be a big matter that can take gold to the next level.
05:54Mainly, if we see, there are only two big factors.
05:57The movement of central banks and the escalating tensions in the Middle East.
06:03Sir, if we talk about the domestic front,
06:06the RBI's MPC meeting is still going on.
06:08The decision will be made on 9th October.
06:10The assumption is that this time also,
06:13for the 10th time, the exchange rates can be kept stable.
06:16We will not depend on the decision,
06:19because the assumption is that it will remain stable.
06:22But how much impact will the commentary have?
06:25Because I feel that in the coming days,
06:28The experts are also saying that in the next policy meeting,
06:31the RBI can start reducing the interest rates.
06:34How do you see this move in terms of the bullion market?
06:39I think it is important to keep two things in mind
06:43when we talk about interest rates or any central bank.
06:46First, how they are forecasting inflation and growth.
06:50Even if they keep the interest rates unchanged,
06:53but if they forecast less or more,
06:57then it will impact the market more.
07:02Secondly, if we talk about imports and overall deficits,
07:10this year's import of gold and silver was very good.
07:17The import of 400 tonnes of gold has increased to more than 400 tonnes in 9 months.
07:22The import of silver has also increased to more than 5000 tonnes.
07:25So this import duty can definitely have an impact somewhere.
07:30But how will it affect the overall deficit?
07:33It is also important to see how the balance sheet of India will change.
07:40That's why I think the market is anticipating a change in interest rates.
07:46But as I said, inflation is in control.
07:50But our GDP is stable.
07:53So I don't think RBI should cut the interest rates.
07:56So these were the factors.
07:58Now if we ask our viewers,
08:00as it is a good time to invest in gold,
08:06as gold is very expensive now,
08:09what advice would you give to retail investors?
08:12Which option should they go for?
08:16What advice would you give?
08:18Which option should they focus on?
08:21I think we have a diverse platform for investing in gold.
08:28Until recently, we had SGB as an option.
08:32If I talk about active options,
08:35ETF is a very good channel where we can invest.
08:39There is a little flexibility.
08:41There is a derivative market on the M6 platform.
08:44Thirdly, there is a physical market.
08:47We can diversify the portfolio according to our risk profile and capital.
08:56There are some added costs in the physical market.
09:00As you mentioned, there will be a wedding season.
09:03So jewellery is nothing better than physical.
09:07So purely in terms of investment,
09:09the derivative is on the M6 platform.
09:11Or ETF is a much better platform.
09:14That's right.
09:15So if we look at gold and silver,
09:19we can see an increase in gold as well as silver.
09:23What level can you see in the future?
09:25If we talk about the festive season,
09:27till Dussehra and Diwali,
09:29what level can you see for silver?
09:31What is the current industrial demand for silver?
09:35What level can you see for retail investors in the coming days?
09:41The rally in silver has started quite late.
09:47We were thinking that silver will increase its hold.
09:53We saw the 35% rally on the YTD basis in the comics.
09:59I think the fall in silver is fast.
10:05The rise is also fast.
10:07The level I am seeing from here is 88-500 on the immediate basis.
10:13I think that is a very good support.
10:16If it reaches there, it will be a very good level to buy.
10:21Whether it is on the M6 or in the physical market.
10:24If we talk about the end of the year,
10:28the all-time high is around 97,000.
10:31We can see a closing there.
10:33We have also released long-term reports.
10:43I think we can discuss those levels as well.
10:46If I talk about both metals,
10:50what will be your top pick for long-term?
10:52Will it be gold or silver?
10:54Which metal do you trust more?
10:56If you are looking at the time frame of 1-2 years,
11:02incrementally, the gains in gold,
11:05we have seen very good gains this year.
11:07But in silver, my bet will be more.
11:10I think either gold or silver can see more returns.
11:15In all these years, silver has performed as good as gold.
11:20But we have not seen any outperformance.
11:23Industrial metals, China's speed,
11:25and China's support for silver can be seen in silver in the long term.
11:32For next Diwali, what is your target for gold and silver?
11:36For next Diwali, if we want to know,
11:38at what level are you looking at gold and silver?
11:44Will there be a new record?
11:46In short term, there will be a correction.
11:50But what is your vision for long term?
11:52Especially for next Diwali.
11:54If we are talking about next Diwali,
11:59we have a target of 81,000 in gold.
12:03We have released it recently.
12:08If we talk about silver,
12:10there is an immediate view of 1,00,000-1,15,000.
12:15We have an in-house view of 1,25,000.
12:17But if you reduce the duty by 9%,
12:21then it definitely comes close to 1,15,000.
12:24We see silver above 1,00,000 for next Diwali.
12:28And we see 81,000 in gold for next Diwali.
12:31So according to Mr. Modi,
12:33in short term, we can see a correction in gold.
12:36But for long term, we can see both gold and silver.
12:40Mano sir, thank you very much for connecting with us.
12:43Thank you very much sir.
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12:55Namaskar.