Punto de Vista:  Kahalagahan at limitasyon ng election surveys - video Dailymotion

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Transcript

00:00While the election is getting closer,

00:02a survey about the candidates is already being released.

00:06But how important is this for the candidates and the public?

00:10Professor Antonio Contreras will give a clear answer on the point of view of the professor.

00:20Thank you very much, Dayan, and good morning.

00:23You're right, Chuck.

00:25A lot of surveys will be released today.

00:28In fact, before the COC filed the candidates,

00:32there were surveys about the senators and the party list.

00:38So the question is, should we believe these surveys?

00:40What are these surveys really about?

00:42Because some people are asking,

00:44how can you predict or know who will be the first and who will be the last

00:48when there are only 1,200 surveys in the country?

00:54You know, there is a science in surveys.

00:57It's not just about doing it.

00:59There is a scientific rigor called randomization.

01:04Surveys have an effect and are effective.

01:09We can monitor and see what people think about a particular time period.

01:19Because there is a time period from September 3 to September 10.

01:24That is just a snapshot of the opinion of the people there.

01:27We can trust that if the sampling was done properly.

01:32Because a lot of people are asking,

01:34since there are only 1,200 surveys,

01:36how can you predict who will be the first and who will be the last?

01:38It's just like this.

01:40Bulalo is a whole pot.

01:43You don't have to eat all the bulalo to know if it's delicious, salty, or salty.

01:51You just have to mix it well and get a sample of the soup.

01:57You can taste it and tell if it's salty or salty.

02:01That's how surveys work.

02:03We don't have to count all the opinions of the people

02:07to know what the snapshot is.

02:09But what is the importance of this?

02:14To be honest, surveys are more important to the candidates

02:19because they will know if they are leading or being caught.

02:24And if they are caught, what else do they have to do to win?

02:29It can also be found in the survey

02:31what places in the Philippines or the population sector are weak.

02:36The people should look at the survey as an indicator of a horse race.

02:42But the real god of the election,

02:44what you vote for should not be who will win or who will lose.

02:49What you vote for should be who is worthy for you to win or lose.

02:55That's how the god of the election should be

02:57because the people we elect are representative of our opinions and views.

03:08And we should not go to the places where we won.

03:11We should go to the places where we lost.

03:14I repeat, the survey has a function.

03:16But personally, as a political scientist,

03:20we should not be too addicted to surveys.

03:24It should be who we want to vote for.

03:26And second, more importantly,

03:28we should not just believe in surveys.

03:30Those are surveys.

03:32These are not randomized samples.

03:34These are the ones they call on the internet

03:38if they are the only ones who want to survey.

03:40These are not scientific surveys

03:42because they are not randomly selected.

03:44What do you mean by random?

03:46All of us Filipinos,

03:48the probability of being included in a sample is almost equal.

03:50If it's in a ball,

03:52it was mixed so that all of its parts

03:54can be represented in a spoon

03:56that you tasted,

03:58in a cup that you tasted its soup.

04:00The survey is the same.

04:02So let's not just believe in surveys.

04:04We should not be addicted to surveys.

04:06We should not be addicted to surveys.

04:08So let's not just believe in surveys

04:10because it's just an online survey.

04:12It's not scientific.

04:14Or if it's just called on the radio

04:16and it's the only one who wants to answer,

04:18those are not scientific.

04:20Those results cannot be generalized.

04:22So again,

04:24surveys are useful

04:26but the most useful thing

04:28is the candidate

04:30so that they know

04:32where they are in the race.

04:34Voters,

04:36don't just believe in surveys

04:38because it's all scientific.

04:40And second,

04:42make sure that

04:44your vote is the one you really want.

04:46The one that's close to your interest.

04:48Whether you win or lose.

04:50That's the miracle of democracy.

04:52That's my point of view

04:54for this morning.

04:56Go back to the studio, Diane.

04:58Thank you very much. Good morning.

Punto de Vista: Kahalagahan at limitasyon ng election surveys

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