• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00How about this one, Joe? Two bonafide contenders for the NFC
00:08South and two teams playing decent football at this moment.
00:13To Atlanta, we go. Standalone primetime game. The Falcons a
00:17slight one and a half point favorite. Minus 126 on the
00:20money line at this moment. Forty-three and a half against
00:23the three and one. Tampa Bay Buccaneers who currently have
00:28the best record in the NFC South who have won three
00:32consecutive NFC South divisional crowns and yet the
00:36Falcons back to the favored side in this division as they
00:40were before the year got underway. Joe, what are your
00:43early thoughts here on the early line looking at the early
00:47lines for the start of week five of this NFL season? Well,
00:52we can tell you right now that Thursday night game primetime
00:54under is now fourteen and ten. Kurt Cousins under nine of his
00:59last ten starts. He's eight and three to the under as a
01:02primetime starter since 2020. Oh, yeah. Baker Mayfield thirteen
01:06and two to the under in primetime here. So, short week.
01:11I would tend to think the way both these teams are able to
01:14run the ball. That's what we're going to see a lot of. If it
01:18wasn't for a blocked punt touchdown and a pick six, that
01:23game would have went under against the Saints as well. So,
01:26I do think forty-three and a half. I would only look at the
01:30under in that game and think we get a big, big, big, big
01:33rushing game out of both teams and both the running backs in
01:38that series should be interesting. All three short
01:41week Thursday night football games have gone under and
01:44pretty substantially. So, so far this year, Buffalo and
01:47Miami week number two. Week three, the Jets and the Pats
01:52played a game with a total of thirty-eight and a half and it
01:55stayed well under only twenty-seven combined points.
01:57Pretty similar story last week in Met Life as well. The
02:01Falcons first over of the year was Sunday against the Saints
02:04first over of the year. Joe, as you alluded to in a game where
02:08Atlanta didn't score an offensive touchdown, a ton of
02:11young way to a muff punt that was recovered into the end zone
02:14for an Atlanta touchdown and of course, a pick six of Derek
02:19Carr. Joe, when you look at the Buccaneers, nobody since the
02:21start of last year has been a better underdog team than
02:25Tampa. Last week, slight home underdog against the Eagles.
02:28They win outright. Week number two on the road in Detroit
02:32catching near a touchdown. They win outright. It's only a point
02:36and a half spread. As you can see, pretty close distinction
02:39on the money line as well but the Buccaneers are eleven and
02:42four against the number as an underdog. The only team in the
02:46best cover percentage of teams booked as a dog at least five
02:51times since the start of 2023 and if you're saying, alright,
02:55well, what are they going to cover? Lose by a point here.
02:57They've won eight of those eleven covers outright. Eight
03:00and seven straight up. A winning record outright as an
03:05underdog. I do think the Buccaneers are being slightly
03:08discredited here with how good they have been in the NFC South
03:12whether it's been Tom Brady or Baker Mayfield. How good they've
03:16been under Baker. An uncharacteristic game where they
03:20were really banged up defensively against the Denver
03:22Broncos. They were healthy on Sunday. We saw the results
03:26against Philly. Yeah, I I mean and really as good as Baker has
03:30been and he's playing at a very high level right now. I think
03:33he had almost 107 QBR in that in that game. It was 100 degrees
03:39by the way on the field. It was a very hot and humid day for
03:42the end of September and you could tell Philadelphia was
03:45struggling but really the the running back Bucky Irvin. I
03:48mean getting six yards and carry. They still have white.
03:52They, I mean, this is a team that can run the ball and is
03:56not one-dimensional with the way that he is playing. So,
03:59Tampa survived the injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
04:03This is a real team that should win their division here, man.
04:07Let's be realistic.

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