Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told DW that an Israeli incursion into Lebanon will be messy and may conclude with no clear-cut defeat of the Hezbollah militant group that would allow Israeli citizens to return to their homes.
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00:00Ehud Olmert served as Israel's 12th prime minister
00:03between 2006 to 2009.
00:05Tonight, he's my guest here at DW News.
00:08Mr. Prime Minister, it's good to have you with us again.
00:10Israel is showing no signs
00:13of slowing its campaign against Hezbollah.
00:16Do we know, how will Israel know
00:18that it has disabled Hezbollah completely and permanently?
00:21What will be the signs?
00:24I wish I could answer your question.
00:28Had I supported a ground operation,
00:33as I understand we are about to start,
00:38I'd probably be in a position to also answer
00:41what is the merit of this.
00:43But since I'm not certain that I agree
00:46that this is the right move to do,
00:49I'm afraid that I may not have a good answer for you
00:53as to what and when it will end.
00:57I can say only this.
01:00We have weakened Hezbollah dramatically.
01:04Not just as a result of the targeting of Nasrallah,
01:07although of course this is significant
01:11and very psychologically and emotionally very important.
01:14But we also, all these events over the last few weeks
01:19that took place certainly weakened Hezbollah.
01:22The question is always, what is the end game?
01:26Okay, let's assume that we continue the military operation.
01:31The winter season starts soon
01:35at the south part of Lebanon.
01:39This is always going to be very messy.
01:42And I'm afraid that we'll find ourselves stuck
01:46in the south of Lebanon with lots of casualties
01:50and without a clear-cut defeat and victory
01:55that can guarantee what we believe is essential
02:01in order to be able to bring back the Israeli citizens living in the north.
02:06So I think that at this stage,
02:09I have picked up a different strategy.
02:12And the strategy is to take use of the fears
02:16that Hezbollah may have because of what happened to them
02:21and try and use the efforts of the Americans and the French
02:27to broker a deal that will implement
02:33in the most perhaps robust manner the Resolution 1701
02:39and will allow Israel to bring back our citizens of the north.
02:46Prime Minister, let me ask you what we're seeing right now.
02:50I mean, you say a ground invasion of Lebanon is something you wouldn't support,
02:54but you know what we have happening right now are attacks in Lebanon.
02:58We have attacks in Yemen today.
03:00Also, the fighting in Gaza continues.
03:02We're talking about three fronts here.
03:04How long can Israel sustain this?
03:09Well, you know, you asked me about the attack in Yemen.
03:13You don't forget that two days ago,
03:16they launched a ballistic missile with a 1,000 kilos warhead
03:21that was aimed at the center of Israel.
03:24It failed because we intercepted it.
03:26But I think this was a very most natural reaction to try and stop them
03:32from continuing shooting ballistic missiles that can be very harmful.
03:39As for Gaza, I am in favor of stopping the war.
03:43I am in favor of trying to find a solution in the south and in the north,
03:47the sooner the better.
03:48The question is not how much longer we can carry on.
03:53In the intensity in which the war in the south is taking place now,
03:59we can continue it for a long time.
04:02But what's the purpose?
04:04What's the use?
04:05What's the merit?
04:06What's the possible outcome?
04:08What are the possible consequences?
04:10I'm not certain that I understand,
04:12and I think that there are serious doubts as to the reason for going on with the war in the south.
04:23We all believe that this is endangering the hostages which are still alive,
04:30and therefore we should stop it as soon as possible and bring back the hostages.
04:34This is the main objective that I think should be set forth.
04:39I want to ask you about something that the current Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu,
04:43what he said today.
04:44He issued a message directly to the people of Iran.
04:47We're going to play a clip of that, and then I want to ask you another question.
04:50Take a listen.
04:52When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think,
04:57everything will be different.
04:59Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace.
05:06Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace.
05:10I want to ask you, Prime Minister, is Netanyahu's message there that the regime in Tehran
05:17is the next target after Hezbollah in Lebanon?
05:21Is that where you're headed?
05:25Look, this is the ultimate expression of arrogance that I'm familiar with.
05:34Netanyahu knows very well that it could have been very difficult and painful to Israel
05:44if America had not been alongside Israel fighting the Iranians in the event that they would attack us.
05:51They already manifested it a few months ago when Iran shot more than 300 ballistic and cruise missiles
06:02and drones and UAVs against Israel.
06:06America and Great Britain and France and some of our countries participated in defending the state of Israel.
06:12And their defense was very, very important and helpful to the security of the state of Israel.
06:21So, I mean, all these statements of arrogance, we are going to topple the Iranians,
06:28we will destroy you, you will continue, and so on.
06:32The Iranians are very arrogant and very provocative, and they certainly deserve to be taken care of.
06:41But I believe, I think, Israel has enormous military capacities that I would not underestimate, okay?
06:51But we're not after Iran, and we don't want Iran to be after us.
06:58And it is better for the Prime Minister of Israel to handle what he needs to handle,
07:06which is to end the war in the south and in the north rather than to threaten a major power like Iran
07:15that he knows that he can't accomplish most of what he says he will.
07:22I want to ask you about something you said over the weekend.
07:24You were quoted in an interview on Israeli television this past weekend
07:29where you admitted that Israel was responsible for the assassination back in 2008 of Hezbollah Global Operations Chief Imad Mugninya.
07:39Now, he died in a bomb blast in Damascus.
07:43You were Prime Minister at the time.
07:45Israel has never claimed responsibility for this killing.
07:49Why admit responsibility now?
07:53You know, in the last few weeks, Israel assumed responsibility for targeting some of the most archenemies of the State of Israel and humanity,
08:07like Nasser Nasrallah, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah,
08:13and many of his deputies and chief commanders, including the chief of staff of Hezbollah,
08:20the one who replaced Imad Mugninya.
08:23So when I was asked in the context of all these events which were taking place over the last few weeks
08:32and Israel assumed public and official responsibility for, I was asked about Imad Mugninya,
08:40I thought that it was ridiculous to deny that which is well known by everyone,
08:48which was published in those times by international media,
08:55and that Israel didn't take responsibility for at the time,
08:59but now I thought that it was not of any possible consequences that should have prevented it.
09:07Well, you were also quoted as saying that these operations are very important, but they usually do not change reality.
09:14You said that they can create a resonance that can generate momentum, but you said let's not overdo it.
09:20So are you saying that the death on Friday of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, does that not change reality?
09:28No, no. Number one, I have to say, and I'm sure that you will subscribe to it,
09:35that all these special operations that have the aroma of James Bond are always exciting and infusing the imagination of many people
09:48and they are carried away by them and so on.
09:51So I said look, these are important operations and sometimes they are essential.
09:56And I think that the elimination of an Ark murderer like Imad Munir 16 years ago was of great significance.
10:07This guy was responsible for the killing of 241 American marines in the harbor of Beirut.
10:14And also he was responsible for killing many French soldiers and Saudi soldiers and Israeli soldiers.
10:21And he had to be punished. But don't try to create an unrealistic expectation from these operations.
10:35Now I certainly am very happy that Nasrallah was ultimately targeted.
10:44He deserved it because he was the perpetrator of endless terrorist actions over the years that caused the death of hundreds of people,
10:53if not thousands of people, in Lebanon, in Syria, and in Israel.
10:59And therefore his targeting was entirely appropriate.
11:04But I suggest that we will not create unrealistic expectations.
11:10These operations do not change realities.
11:14I want to ask you before we run out of time, there's a lot of focus on the U.S. presidential race between Trump and Harris.
11:21They're very different approaches to foreign policy.
11:24Does the outcome really matter for Israel?
11:27I mean Washington's ability to influence Israel right now seems more impotent than ever.
11:34I'll tell you the truth is that I don't think that this is something that we should offer a judgment or an observation about who should be the president of America.
11:49I can say this. Whoever is good for America will ultimately be good for Israel.
11:56I think that there is a difference between the two candidates.
12:01I'm not certain that I understand exactly what is the foreign policy of Trump.
12:07I don't know that the Americans understand what is the foreign policy of Trump.
12:12And I think that the foreign policy of Kamala Harris seems to be clearer.
12:21But I think that both have proved to be friendly to Israel.
12:26So I don't think that this is an Israeli problem.
12:29I think that this is an American problem.
12:32They have to decide who is the best for the United States of America.
12:36And the one that will be best for America will be best for all of us.
12:40You and us as well.
12:42Okay, well hopefully we will know in November.
12:45Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
12:47Prime Minister, thank you.