As 700 Lebanese have been killed in Israeli strikes, Hezbollah responds with rockets
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00:00We're going to get some more analysis on the military aspect of this conflict as well as
00:05Mediation efforts for that Oliver McTernan the director of forward-thinking joins us from London. Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24
00:14Recently in recent hours cold water has been poured on hopes of getting a ceasefire in this latest escalation of the conflict
00:22How likely do you think it is that we're going to see one?
00:25Well, in my opinion, I think a ceasefire is highly unlikely
00:30I've just spent the last week in Jerusalem talking to many people especially in the political circles and
00:39Netanyahu has
00:41Widespread support for what he is doing now in Lebanon and widespread support also for a ground
00:49Invasion, so it's difficult to see why he should
00:53Agree to the international pressure for a ceasefire
00:57the the mantra now is the
01:00Protection of the 10 million should take priority over the release of the hundred referring
01:07Of course to the captives in Gaza and the need for a ceasefire in Gaza to see their safe return
01:15But how do you think?
01:17Every day Israelis are responding to that. I mean you say he has widespread support for a ground invasion into Lebanon
01:23But aren't there thousands on the streets?
01:26In many Israeli cities protesting to get a ceasefire and to get the hostages back. Isn't that a main priority for residents?
01:34And it is and it should be but I think as I say in political circles, especially
01:40There is a sense of the inevitability that without a ground invasion
01:46The 60 to 70 million people in the north of Israel won't return
01:51My own feeling very strongly is that he should test what Hespeler is saying
01:57Have a ceasefire in Gaza and in that way secure the safety of the
02:03Residents of northern Israel and allow them to return to their homes
02:08When the Israeli military chief spoke a couple of days ago and hinted at a ground invasion into Lebanon
02:15Washington sort of said there's no any sign that this could be imminent
02:21When or if do you think we're going to see this?
02:25You know, we've seen
02:27Washington say all sorts of things in the past 11 months
02:31I think the root of the problem is that Washington in the old expression
02:37Doesn't walk the talk at no time have they actually said to never now
02:43Give them an ultimatum saying unless you put a halt to this unless you find a way of
02:51Settling it without the continuing bombing. We will stop supplying your weapons once they're continuing to supply weapons
02:58Is there any reason for him to really listen to their warnings?
03:04Right, and the Israeli defense minister said that attacks will continue on Hespeler until safety has been restored in the north of Israel
03:12But what exactly does that look like? Do we know at what point it's considered safe?
03:18Well, I think that's a very good question and I don't think there is a
03:22Straightforward answer to that in my own opinion
03:25I've been up on my previous visit to the northern border on my own opinion
03:30the only way to bring security for the residents of northern Israel is in fact through a
03:38negotiated settlement and through
03:40Dialogue and mediation. I think what we're witnessing at the moment is
03:45Putting the whole future security at risk because we see
03:51Hundreds of people now being killed in Lebanon that will leave a legacy
03:55One of the problems I think the present is and I've mentioned this before
04:00You know, the Israeli population is highly traumatized and and including the political leaders
04:06So they're acting in a way without seeing the immediate and long-term
04:12Consequences of their actions in Gaza and now in Lebanon
04:15And I think they need an outside that the need someone like Biden or Blinken to say look guys
04:22You've got to put a stop to this. It's not going to bring you the security you're looking for
04:28And and meanwhile the number of displaced people particularly in Lebanon will will also complicate military operations for both sides, wouldn't you say?
04:38Yes, of course
04:39You know the terrible sad thing
04:42I think we're witnessing at present the whole
04:46World order that grew out of the horrors of the Second World War a rule based international order
04:53I think we see it being teared up before our eyes or torn up before our eyes because
04:59none of those sort of moral codes
05:03Seem to be adhered to you know, you take preemptive action that you can kill a hundred
05:10Civilians if you want to get a single target all of these things
05:14I think should be deeply deeply worrying to the global community because they'll have long-term
05:21consequences for the way we
05:23act out our
05:25relationships one with the other
05:27All right, Oliver McTernan. Thank you very much for your analysis on France 24